Defining the 21st Century Democratic Party

[LordMortis]

Depends on what she says but agree it hurts her more potentially.

That will depend on what you mean by hurts her more. Doing her job? Probably, but her electability won't be tied to this unless she makes some huge ass blunders (which she has done in the past, so it's not totally off the table).

You have to figure she thinks this will elevate her profile. It'll probably do the exact opposite.

That is not how she has behaved with legislative powers locally. She has been very community focused and legislating from the idea that she wants to help the 13th district. I have never seen rep more focused on Town Halls and using their office to make state and federal resources available to their constituency than I have seen with Tlaib. She spends a lot of effort on community outreach and I honestly don't see her out there campaigning as soon as she is elected like others do. That doesn't excuse some of her behaviors nor does it make me align with most progressive views but it does make me feel better about the fact that I have no choice but to vote for her and I think others are much stronger in their endorsements for her than are mine.

[$iljanus]

She could also just hammer Republicans for being so obstructionist and preventing real relief from reaching "ordinary every day Americans". I'm down with that but would have preferred it to be delivered tomorrow.

[malchior]

Wow I really wish the Democrats didn't have unnecessary responses. The GOP response is practically a softer American carnage speech. It's terrible and it'd probably would have been best to contrast Biden's positive speech with this utterly negative hyperbole.

[malchior]

This is being framed as Beto leading a 'collapse' on CRT by the ring master himself. It's clipped down and inaccurately captioned to 'disinform' but I think we actually get enough context to see what Beto is trying to do. It seems he is trying educate a little by boiling down that it isn't happening anyway, and ultimately agree it shouldn't be because it is advanced legal theory that is not a good fit for a high school level class. I think this is an interesting and possibly replicable way to try to defuse this issue.

[Octavious]

I love how we have to defuse something that wasn't happening in the first place. I'm so disappointed in how things have totally gone into the gutter. I mean we have a former president and a Fox News host praising Putin all the time. And somehow people still think that's the f'n dude that can handle Russia? I just give up.

[YellowKing]

The problem is that Dems are constantly playing defense against the boogeymen the right throws up. And by having to counter them, they give them legitimacy they don't deserve. It's a brilliant playbook, and I wish I had the answers on how to stop it. I don't really know what you do without educating people, and the people we need to educate are the ones who refuse to listen to anything a librul says.

[Octavious]

We need a total dick on our side. It seems like the only thing they respond to. Sadly they seem to have that market locked down. We had to deal with Christie in Jersey. And then freaking Trump. And maybe Trump again. Or if we're lucky Desantis. Seriously just kill me.

[Smoove_B]

Continuing to obstruct Joe Biden:

Sen. Joe Manchin, the most conservative Democrat in the Senate, said Monday that he opposes one of President Joe Biden's nominees to the Federal Reserve, leaving her candidacy to join the central bank with the slimmest of hopes.

"I have carefully reviewed Sarah Bloom Raskin's qualifications and previous public statements. Her previous public statements have failed to satisfactorily address my concerns about the critical importance of financing an all-of-the-above energy policy to meet our nation's critical energy needs," Manchin said in a statement.

"I have come to the conclusion that I am unable to support her nomination to serve as a member of the Federal Reserve Board," he added.

[Daehawk]

The problem is that Dems are constantly playing defense against the boogeymen the right throws up. And by having to counter them, they give them legitimacy they don't deserve. It's a brilliant playbook, and I wish I had the answers on how to stop it. I don't really know what you do without educating people, and the people we need to educate are the ones who refuse to listen to anything a librul says.

I no longer think enough humans are smart enough. I think pollution has tainted the gene pool.

[malchior]

Continuing to obstruct Joe Biden:

Sen. Joe Manchin, the most conservative Democrat in the Senate, said Monday that he opposes one of President Joe Biden's nominees to the Federal Reserve, leaving her candidacy to join the central bank with the slimmest of hopes.

"I have carefully reviewed Sarah Bloom Raskin's qualifications and previous public statements. Her previous public statements have failed to satisfactorily address my concerns about the critical importance of financing an all-of-the-above energy policy to meet our nation's critical energy needs," Manchin said in a statement.

"I have come to the conclusion that I am unable to support her nomination to serve as a member of the Federal Reserve Board," he added.

Manchin’s statement Monday suggested that he doesn’t believe Raskin, who has previously called for stronger climate policies and critiqued the energy sector, could serve on the Fed without politicizing her decisions.

“The Federal Reserve Board is not an institution that should politicize its critical decisions,” Manchin said. “The time has come for the Federal Reserve Board to return to its defining principles and dual mandate of controlling inflation by ensuring stable prices and maximum employment. I will not support any future nominee that does not respect these critical priorities.”

Many of Manchin’s top donors include executives in the coal, oil and gas industries. Within the past year, Manchin has received donations from Ryan Lance, CEO of ConocoPhillips, Vicki Hollub, CEO of Occidental Petroleum, and R. Lane Riggs, the president of Valero Energy.

It's sort of amazing that the press says this but doesn't mention he owns a coal company (sorry I mean his assets are in a 'blind trust' but that coal company he 'used to own' is run by his son). The man is deeply corrupt. We need the press to have the guts and move beyond this sort of tepid qualifying. He is deeply conflicted individually and this is incredibly weak tea. Unfortunately it's more important to keep him happy so he'll appear on their shows to earn clicks.

[Kraken]

We need a total dick on our side. It seems like the only thing they respond to. Sadly they seem to have that market locked down. We had to deal with Christie in Jersey. And then freaking Trump. And maybe Trump again. Or if we're lucky Desantis. Seriously just kill me.

Yeah, the best defense.... Democrats need to call out MAGA Republicans as un-American, anti-democracy white supremacists, repeatedly and in no uncertain terms. Keep them on the defense. Hell, I wish establishment Republicans would do it too.

[Daehawk]

I'll do it, but it's going to cost ya.

[Carpet_pissr]

We need a total dick on our side. It seems like the only thing they respond to. Sadly they seem to have that market locked down. We had to deal with Christie in Jersey. And then freaking Trump. And maybe Trump again. Or if we're lucky Desantis. Seriously just kill me.

Hell, I wish establishment Republicans would do it too.

They did. And either already lost, quit, or are about to lose.

Trump’s latest rallies are pushing hard against the so-called RINO’s. Trumpists are primarying R’s that criticized Trump. If those asshats win, it’s over, even if Trump himself drops dead tomorrow.

Trumpism (just populism with a fancy, horrible name) is here to stay, folks.

[Holman]

We need a total dick on our side. It seems like the only thing they respond to. Sadly they seem to have that market locked down. We had to deal with Christie in Jersey. And then freaking Trump. And maybe Trump again. Or if we're lucky Desantis. Seriously just kill me.

Yeah, the best defense.... Democrats need to call out MAGA Republicans as un-American, anti-democracy white supremacists, repeatedly and in no uncertain terms. Keep them on the defense. Hell, I wish establishment Republicans would do it too.

Somebody once called them Deplorables, but the media consensus was that she went too far.

[Jaymann]

We need a total dick on our side. It seems like the only thing they respond to. Sadly they seem to have that market locked down. We had to deal with Christie in Jersey. And then freaking Trump. And maybe Trump again. Or if we're lucky Desantis. Seriously just kill me.

Yeah, the best defense.... Democrats need to call out MAGA Republicans as un-American, anti-democracy white supremacists, repeatedly and in no uncertain terms. Keep them on the defense. Hell, I wish establishment Republicans would do it too.

Somebody once called them Deplorables, but the media consensus was that she went too far.

At first I thought that was a mistake. But now it just serves as a handy shorthand.

[Grifman]

Losing Hispanics:



Obama 71%
Clinton 66%
Biden 59%

Identity politics is a losing issue when people feel their are more important things to their life than identity.

[Unagi]

Perhaps it’s a reflection of misogyny.

[noxiousdog]

Perhaps it’s a reflection of misogyny.

Are you saying latinos are misogynist?

[Unagi]

Is this where I completely flip out on you for asking if I’m saying something I didn’t actually say?


Lol. No.

I’m pointing out how it’s hard to draw correlations.

[noxiousdog]

Is this where I completely flip out on you for asking if I’m saying something I didn’t actually say?


Lol. No.

I’m pointing out how it’s hard to draw correlations.

Ok. I wasn't sure how to interpret your statement. That's why I asked.

[Grifman]

I’m not sure whether this should have gone in the “Defining the 21st Century Republican Party” but in the end I put it here:

[Smoove_B]

It's Politico so take that for what it's worth, but....things are not looking great:

Angry voters slammed by higher prices and scarred by two years of fighting the pandemic are poised to punish Democrats in midterm elections, according to some of the leading experts in consumer sentiment and behavior.

And with inflation persisting and Russia’s war on Ukraine stoking uncertainty, there are indications that public sentiment is getting worse, not better, posing a growing threat to Democrats’ already slim chances of holding onto Congress, they say.

The widely watched University of Michigan consumer confidence survey recently touched its lowest level in almost 11 years. An Associated Press/NORC survey showed that almost 70 percent of Americans think the economy is in poor shape, and 81 percent of those in a poll released by CNBC see a recession coming this year. Gallup found the share of Americans citing inflation as the top issue is now at its highest level since the 1980s.

So just to be clear - rather than do things that actually protect people and the economy during the pandemic, they capitulate to the people that have been yelling for the last 2+ years and weren't going to vote for anyone with a (D) after their name, making the actual card-carrying members of the (D) party angrier. Add in the GOP actively undermining what has been attempted (workplace protection laws, Congressional financial funding for testing, etc...) and it feels pretty clear how things are going to go this November and in 2024, eh?

I get that there are so many things out of the control of either party, but it's amazing to me how the Democrats really seem to be leaning into the "let's just ignore reality and focus on the economy" mentality here.

[Blackhawk]

Ds: The house is on fire! Call 911!
Rs: Sorry, no phones.
Ds: The house is on fire! Get the hose!
Rs: Sorry, we've locked the hose in the shed.
Ds: The house is on fire! Get the buckets!
Rs: Sorry, buckets are against tradition.
Ds: The house is on fire! Get water - any way you can!
Rs: Sorry, we refuse to pay the water bill. But here's some nice gasoline in a power sprayer...

Voters: Stupid Ds let the house burn down! Vote R!

Rs:

[LordMortis]

It's Politico so take that for what it's worth, but....things are not looking great:

Angry voters slammed by higher prices and scarred by two years of fighting the pandemic are poised to punish Democrats in midterm elections, according to some of the leading experts in consumer sentiment and behavior.

And with inflation persisting and Russia’s war on Ukraine stoking uncertainty, there are indications that public sentiment is getting worse, not better, posing a growing threat to Democrats’ already slim chances of holding onto Congress, they say.

The widely watched University of Michigan consumer confidence survey recently touched its lowest level in almost 11 years. An Associated Press/NORC survey showed that almost 70 percent of Americans think the economy is in poor shape, and 81 percent of those in a poll released by CNBC see a recession coming this year. Gallup found the share of Americans citing inflation as the top issue is now at its highest level since the 1980s.

So just to be clear - rather than do things that actually protect people and the economy during the pandemic, they capitulate to the people that have been yelling for the last 2+ years and weren't going to vote for anyone with a (D) after their name, making the actual card-carrying members of the (D) party angrier. Add in the GOP actively undermining what has been attempted (workplace protection laws, Congressional financial funding for testing, etc...) and it feels pretty clear how things are going to go this November and in 2024, eh?

I get that there are so many things out of the control of either party, but it's amazing to me how the Democrats really seem to be leaning into the "let's just ignore reality and focus on the economy" mentality here.

Lord knows I don't have my fingers on the pulse of voters but I can be angry and scarred and think the economy is poor shape and see a recession on the horizon and disapprove of the Democrats and still vote for them without question. (Though I do gotta admit Talib is making harder and harder to vote for her, even as I appreciate a chunk of what she does) We has to bite the bullet going in to the pandemic and we have to pay the piper but it's better than paying ferry man. That said, they're doing a poor job of clean up and prioritizing now, but even so the continuity of obstructive and malicious complete disregard for Making America Great Again informs a choice to stick with left no matter how poor of a job they may be doing.

[Kraken]

Granted I am not a typical worker or consumer, but I think the perception that the economy's in the crapper is partly a failure of Democratic messaging. The economy has added at least 400k jobs per month for the past 11 months. Employment and unemployment are at or approaching historic levels. Wages are rising. Unions are growing. Economic growth boomed last year, and although it's slowing now it's still healthy.

Of course people don't live the statistical economy. Inflation -- which most have never experienced in their lifetimes -- is front and center. I paid $45 to fill my Miata's little tank with premium go-juice last week. It will last me 6-8 weeks, but that's a big deal if you have to buy it every week. I'm routinely going over my grocery budget. I'm fortunate enough to be able to divert money from other budget items, but I know that most consumers don't enjoy that flexibility. Chronic product and service shortages are still rolling. And now recession talk is in the spotlight. So I understand where the perception comes from.

IDK if Democrats should be trying to tell us that all is well when we can see otherwise, but they could do a better job of making those numbers known, if only in a glass-half-full way.

[malchior]

To me this isn't the normal the Democrats can't communicate problem. It is pretty impossible for the Democrats to message out of this. The entirety of the mass media machine is generally saying the same things. And the reasons are complex, have limited connection to anything the Democrats are doing, but it doesn't matter. Americans simply aren't sophisticated voters en masse. If they are told the economy is bad, they'll internalize all the things they don't like. This all goes doubly so when talking about midterm elections. The only way out of it is if the situation isn't as bad in October. I'd also adjust for the likelihood that even if economic conditions are ok to good they'd still have a 90% chance to lose the House in a normal year at the seat margins they hold now.

[Kraken]

There's also the aspect that inflation goes with a boom economy, and the boom is the result of $1.9 trillion in good old Keynesian spending and, to an unknown extent, the "end" of the pandemic. Maybe demand-side economics works too well and seeds its own destruction if you do it too hard. However, "our policies worked too well so just suck it up" isn't a winner.

[malchior]

There's also the aspect that inflation goes with a boom economy, and the boom is the result of $1.9 trillion in good old Keynesian spending and, to an unknown extent, the "end" of the pandemic. Maybe demand-side economics works too well and seeds its own destruction if you do it too hard. However, "our policies worked too well so just suck it up" isn't a winner.

That's a part but it's more complicated naturally. The demand side stimulus made sense at the time. No one really anticipated the Supply Side shocks that happened (continuing supply disruptions/Ukraine war/etc.) We saw amped up Demand and the Supply side couldn't even come close to meeting the Demand. We saw money flow into goods which historically are inflation sensitive because manufacturing capacity is finite - especially when we saw Just In Time manufacturing introduced fragility that we didn't anticipate. Prices upwards also tend to be sticky on manufactured goods. That is partially why we're seeing corporations taking excess profits. That is partially a combo of high prices sticking and supply costs normalizing. Compounding that, services saw demand collapse but they tend to not be able to lower prices even though they aren't historically inflation sensitive upwards. A few economists called it 2 major supply side shocks overlapped and unpredicted. It surprised everyone including the Fed.

Most of this is textbook macroeconomics. The bad thing we are seeing is the Fed has been far too slow to respond and even while responding is not responding hard enough. They are far off what they should be doing 'by the book'. To be specific, the well-understood 'Taylor Rule' indicates they should have begun raising rates early this year, consistently and methodically should have set expectations for the market, and should have signaled willingness to adjust rates up or down as needed to control excess growth. Instead, they sort of sat on their hands until it appeared they lost the initiative and now are persistently behind the curve on tightening.

The best guess why is they almost took a populist stance and favored employment over price stability. They didn't see the bad conditions coming. When they did come they blinked and didn't act. Now they are moving but not fast enough. Unfortunately it sets up a scenario where they have to stamp hard potentially. Worst of all, that could lead to an eventual rough recession this or next year. If so, that might sow fertile ground to end our democracy. Whoops!

[Kraken]

Yeah, the coincidence of this demand-side boom and supply-side disruption sums it up. It will drift back into balance, but not before November.

[malchior]

It seems like the dam has broke and the knives are out on the D side of the Senate. In this piece we learn some new information that backs what a lot of us thought - Manchin has on multiple occasions negotiated in bad faith. We even learn in this story that he blocked his *own bill*. This story lends credibility to the White House account of the BBB blow up.

It also throws a lot of heat at the Biden administration saying they essentially mismanaged BBB and the Voting Rights' fights. Not entirely new storylines but backed with insider accounts that explain how Biden seemingly fumbled relations with the Senate. Which we have ample evidence of elsewhere as well.

By early January, Manchin had given the impression — at least according to his colleagues — that he was ready to amend the filibuster in a way that would open a path to passing voting rights. At the end of one of their calls, Tester recalls saying that with everyone in agreement on a filibuster deal, all they had to do was put the finishing touches on the voting legislation itself and they were ready to proceed. “Yeah,” Manchin replied, according to Tester.

A “yes” vote from Manchin could not have been more critical for free and fair elections. The Republican Party responded to Joe Biden’s victory with a backlash on the right to vote. Last year, GOP-run legislatures passed 34 laws in at least 19 states that limit access to voting, put partisan operatives in charge of running elections, and make it harder to participate in American democracy. At the same time, a belief that the last election was somehow stolen or fraudulent — the so-called Big Lie — has become an article of faith for many Republicans.

In response to this onslaught, Democrats in Congress introduced multiple pieces of legislation and vowed to pass the bills in time for the 2022 midterms. In public, Democratic leaders spoke in existential terms about the need for reform. “Failure is not an option,” Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said. In private, lawmakers and activists predicted victory, arguing that the importance of the issue would overcome the challenge of unifying a 50-member caucus.

They were wrong.

Rolling Stone interviewed more than 30 key figures inside and outside of Congress to understand how the most ambitious voting-rights bill in generations and the Democratic Party’s main policy response to the Jan. 6 insurrection ended in failure.

...

When I last spoke with Sen. Tester, he had just come from a classified briefing on China. He drew a connection between what he’d heard in that briefing and the voting-rights push. “The gridlock and the division here in the United States, they [the Chinese] love it,” Tester says. “It plays into their hands; it plays into what they want to do. And so consequently, we are where we are, and we may not even realize that oftentimes we’re our own worst enemy.”

[Octavious]

Solid timing on announcing new gun control laws. I mean it's dearly needed, but seems like incredibly dumb timing with how you know everything will collapse into hell when the R's control everything.

[Grifman]

I think that this article captures where the Democrats are getting it wrong:

https://www.slowboring.com/p/what-the-dlc-got-wrong

More than anything else, this is the big thing the DLC has been right about all along — there’s no cheat code that lets you do politics in a way that is detached from the contours of public opinion, including the reality that self-identified conservatives outnumber self-identified liberals by a large margin, so to win, Democrats need to secure large margins among self-identified moderates.

The implications of that for positioning on specific issues vary, but it makes a big difference in terms of the overall approach. Running around and promising “sweeping,” “bold,” “structural” change is probably a bad idea compared to “common-sense reforms.”

[malchior]

I think this 'self-described conservative' / 'self-describe moderate' stuff is indeed important marketing context. However, when people are polled about policies that progressives or democrats want in the abstract they generally poll well. Many poll in the 60-70% range. That is however before it is bundled up into some grandiose package, then see it mis-marketed by the Democrats, see the oligarchs weigh in to tell their donors to start bashing it on tv, and the right-wing propaganda convinces people that it is socialism. To wit, the bigger problem is the the Democrats couldn't sell water in the desert and the Republicans would be able to convince a good chunk of them to buy their new salt water product.

[Kurth]

Some of the problem is about what the Dems are selling: Are they selling something people actually want? This NYT take on student loan forgiveness today was an interesting (sometimes annoying) read:

Prominent nerds at left-leaning think tanks like the Brookings Institution and the Progressive Policy Institute believe that student-loan forgiveness with no cap and no means testing would mostly go to the well-off. I think they’re right, though you can also find lefty wonks who disagree. What’s key from an electoral standpoint is that most people don’t give a bucket of pig lips about what a bunch of eggheads think. People form their own opinions; there’s no Excalibur of White Papers that will convince all in the land of your fitness to rule.

Most people know that not everyone who took out loans is a hardscrabble, working-class striver. And for all the debate about the exact financial profile of people who would get relief, 87 percent of Americans don’t have federal student loans.

How did Democrats get to a place where a big election-year priority is something that this 87 percent of Americans presumably don’t care about? We might as well campaign on getting Fine Young Cannibals back together or reforming the rules of international cricket.

It gets worse: Student loan forgiveness would increase inflation. The impact would be small, but good luck explaining that to people — the first rule of speechwriting is that the second you utter the phrase “as a percentage of the Federal Reserve inflation target,” you’ve lost. This will be seen as a giveaway to rich professionals that hurts the working poor.

Conservatives will have a field day with this. Prepare to meet the Person Who Got the Stupidest Degree in America, because that person will be on Fox News more than pundits who exude an “angry cheerleading coach” vibe. The case study will be some tragic dweeb who took out $400,000 in loans to get a Ph.D. in intersectional puppet theory from Cosa Nostra Online College and who wrote their dissertation about how “Fraggle Rock” is an allegory for the Franco-Prussian War. I can picture Tucker Carlson putting on his confused cocker spaniel puppy face and asking the poor sap, “Why do Democrats want to forgive every last penny of your student loans?”

Are we trying to foment populism? Are we trying to affirm the stereotype that Democrats serve the needs of educated elites and ignore everyone else? I am completely aware that no matter what, Republicans will portray us fancy little Fauntleroys ensconced in our twee nursery of upper-middle-class desires, deaf to the needs of the struggling masses. But it’s very important to me that this caricature not be true.

[malchior]

Pretty good piece. This would fit well into a continuing series about how the Democrats can't communicate with the public. It also is a good explanation about why they can't get anything done. They constantly negotiate against themselves. Biden can do this on his own for certain loans. Just do it. Definitely means test it. That's a no brainer. So what if it isn't as grand as they want. Again just do something. Then talk about it. They are the epitome of the perfect ruining the good. They need to show why elections have consequences. Meanwhile, the Republicans keep delivering even in electoral defeat. Over and over. The impact? A demoralized Democratic base. (Quoted below).

As of March, the so-called enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats is 17%. It has been widening for the last year. We may see it explode over the summer when the Roe hand grenade is thrown in. Especially if the Democrats maintain their form and can't figure out how to do something about it.

As to the abortion decisions impact, I saw that Frum today has already said he thinks 2022 is lost at this point but that the decision will drive action for 2024. I tend to agree. The Democrats may end up getting routed badly in November. The outcome was looking fairly bad with a neutral-ish map. Now that the NYS Supreme Court has knocked down the gerrymander in the Empire State, it's probably slightly net positive advantage again for the GOP. On top, Biden's ineptitude and a bad economic outlook are a huge problem for the Democrats.

The outcome? The Democrats probably are going to lose a *lot* of seats. This may lead to Biden going completely into defense mode against a radicalized and energized GOP-led Congress and a newly exposed hard right judiciary. It'll be a drag on Biden into 2024. Biden was already limited by our dysfunction even with some nominal control of Congress.

So the question is will the Democrats wake up and realize the risk we face and mount a defense of any effectiveness? A solid indicator about the chances they're realizing the risk is that we are about mid-May and they seem to have no game plan at all. They are still debating defunding police and seem to have no answer to the education culture war. The upcoming abortion decision is certainly a wild card though and impacts are unclear yet. One reasonable-ish guess that considers the enthusiasm gap data is that it'll help the GOP candidates to the upside.

Another factor to consider is that the Democratic leadership penchant to push for a return to normal politics is not tenable with the Roe outcome. They may end up driven to pivot to something with a meaningful message. If they don't, they'll look completely out of touch with reality.

It feels pretty grim for our democracy at this point.

At the end of October, Republicans held an 11-percentage-point advantage in voter enthusiasm. By January, that margin had ticked up to 14 points. Now, according to the most recent NBC News poll, it has swelled to 17 — a massive advantage that has foreshadowed devastating losses in Congress in prior years.

The latest poll would be bad enough for Democrats. But it’s the trend line that is especially grim, seemingly impervious to a series of events — including President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address and the nomination of a judge to the Supreme Court — that Democrats had predicted might improve their candidates’ prospects in the fall.

It’s beginning to look like nothing is going to bail the party out this year. The last time the enthusiasm gap was this wide, in 2010, Democrats lost more than 60 seats in the House.

[malchior]

[Little Raven]

It's also possible that ordinary people don't actually care about abortion very much.

Laura Wilson is a mother of three who lives in the sprawling suburbs of north Phoenix, a hotly contested electoral area of Arizona that could decide which party controls the U.S. Senate after November's congressional elections.

Wilson, 61, is pro-choice, voted for Democratic President Joe Biden, and knew all about the news last week that the U.S. Supreme Court is likely poised to overturn the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade decision giving women the right to an abortion.

Yet Wilson said she is undecided about who she will vote for this November, and abortion rights are not a priority for her.

"It's the economy and jobs," Wilson said. She said she was disappointed in Biden, because of high inflation and "too many homeless people on the streets."

Wilson was one of 21 women interviewed by Reuters in the northern suburbs of Phoenix - a key area for Democratic Senator Mark Kelly's efforts to hold onto his seat - after news of the Supreme Court draft ruling broke. Most of the women said inflation, not abortion, was the galvanizing issue for them.

Significantly, the interviewees were from a key swing demographic group - suburban mothers - who are hotly sought after by both Democrats and Republicans in elections.

There's no way to know how much things have changed until November, but for the last few decades abortion has been a very big deal for a relatively small number of voters, particularly on the pro-choice side. Historically, abortion ranks pretty low on most people's lists of concerns. Maybe that will change now that Roe is going down.....but maybe it won't - Americans are an...interesting...bunch when it comes to motivations.

[malchior]

[Kraken]

There's no way to know how much things have changed until November, but for the last few decades abortion has been a very big deal for a relatively small number of voters, particularly on the pro-choice side. Historically, abortion ranks pretty low on most people's lists of concerns. Maybe that will change now that Roe is going down.....but maybe it won't - Americans are an...interesting...bunch when it comes to motivations.

Roe has been background noise for as long as I can remember, and repealing it was long considered a fringe issue. Maybe that will change now that the wolf is at the door.

However, inflation is top-of-mind for virtually everyone. Elizabeth Warren has been urging Democrats to confront it head-on rather than ignore it and try to change the subject. Specifically, she believes Democrats must emphasize the supply-side drivers and what they will do about that to counter Republican criticism of Dem demand-side policies.

[malchior]

I'd agree that the impact is unknown. Especially for 2022. You definitely have the maxim that the economy always wins in the United States. We also have a Democratic base that by the numbers looks demoralized and defeated. And I can't blame folks for that. The leadership has no plan. I mean look at this exchange below. The leader of Senate's first step of his plan was to lose a vote? Then use that to propel a win in November?