Unwinding Russian Sanctions - what form wil the Destructor take?

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Pyperkub
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Unwinding Russian Sanctions - what form wil the Destructor take?

Post by Pyperkub »

I think this is going to be a very interesting topic - one which may need its own thread (basically, if Russia gives up, which is a possibility

The Sanctions against Russia are pretty much unprecedented in scope. One wonders how difficult unwinding them will be and what that might look like.

Here's a paper on how difficult unwinding Iranian sanctions was, in a limited fashion:
Section II examines how each of these distinctions problematize the process of unwinding sanctions. By only unwinding secondary sanctions, the JCPOA disregards the extent to which the reluctance of non-U.S. companies to transact with Iran arises from primary sanctions and other non-“secondary” measures. In doing so, the JCPOA gives rise to two alternative, but equally problematic outcomes—(1) one in which these measures continue to dissuade foreign companies from engaging in business in Iran, thereby eliminating the possibility of meaningful economic relief for Iran, and (2) another where non-U.S. companies reenter the Iranian market despite these measures and in so doing render the surviving U.S. sanctions against Iran less forceful and effective. In addition, the distinction between nuclear and non-nuclear sanctions falls short as an organizing principle for lifting sanctions. Among the legal authorities under which the U.S. has enacted sanctions against Iran, none within the purview of the JCPOA exclusively reference Iran’s nuclear program as a rationale. As a result, the United States provides sanctions relief that is inherently over inclusive.

Section III discusses the path forward. In the short- to medium-term, this section argues that the United States should propose a financial remediation program whereby Iranian banks are given the opportunity to verifiably demonstrate the integrity of their businesses through a system of international inspections. By offering such a program, the United States can start shifting the conversation around the JCPOA’s commitment to economic normalization from one focused on whether the U.S. has given enough sanctions relief to one where economic relief is understood to be contingent on Iran proving the integrity of its financial sector to the international banking community. Iran, not the United States, must assume the burden of proof. This section also discusses what the JCPOA can teach policymakers about devising sanctions regimes that are easier to unwind on a piecemeal basis. As a starting point, policymakers can rationalize sanctions by predicating them in terms of precisely defined policy grounds that focus on specific categories of business activity.
Swift, individual oligarch sanctions, Corporate sanctions, etc.

There's a also the tit for tat bit, from Russia's side (no longer providing rocket engines to US companies such as Northrup Grumman and ULS). Wheat, Oil/gas, etc.

What do the OO'ers think?

Please post anything interesting too.
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Daehawk
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Re: Unwinding Russian Sanctions - what form wil the Destructor take?

Post by Daehawk »

How do you punish Russia or Putin to say even if they stop now?
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