NCAA Football 2022

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Skinypupy
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NCAA Football 2022

Post by Skinypupy »

Well, guess it's time to get this thing started.

Really looking forward to Utah's P12 title defense. USC is the sexy pick for the P12, but they still have to come through Salt Lake to do it. This may be the most talent we've ever had before, and with Whittingham winding down his career, I know he'll be all in on breaking through this year

On paper, Lincoln Riley is putting together a monster at USC. Announced today that the top WR in the country, Pitt's Jordan Addison, will be joining Caleb Williams (and others) in LA. Rumor is that Addison's NIL deal was over $3MM. It's good for the Pac if USC is back, but I sure wish we didn't play in the same division.

Speaking of, watching this Jimbo/Saban flap from afar is funny. While I don't disagree with Saban's main point (that NIL is out of control), watching the most dominant program in NCAA history whine about it is a bit eye-rolling.

I get why things have gone this way, but I'll admit that it does significantly diminish my interest in college football. Utah is a perennial overacheiver, but we can't really compete when USC is offering multi-million dollar NIL deals to land transfers. There's maybe 10-15 teams who can play in that game, and everyone else will be left fighting for scraps. Well, even more than we already do, I suppose.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by Pyperkub »

Eh, I haven't seen much on the defensive side at 'SC, and Riley's defenses weren't that great at Oklahoma. Sure there's talent there, but I'm not sure it will be very cohesive. I'm pretty confident that we'll beat them again this year (as of now, ask me again in November :) and we get them at home this year. Offense wasn't really SC's issue last year, tho I do expect it to be better. Maybe a lot better.

IMHO, the Utes are the heavy favorite in the pac 12, but it may well be that UCLA can breakthrough this year. The offense will still be elite, and with a new DC the hope is that we'll clean up a lot of the issues in that side. We lost some key players, but also gained some, so it's a bit of an unknown.

Let me know if you might come out for that game.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by Pyperkub »

As to NIL /pay for attendance/play. I hate it.

If it were actually NIL, I would probably be okay with it, but it isn't, and one of the things I love about college football is the idea that players are playing for something other than money.

So, as soon as ESPN starts reporting agents claiming college student players will hold out or transfer (see Isaiah Wong from Miami hoops recently) or competing recruiting offers on a regular basis, I'll probably be ready to cancel my season tix and bow out of college football.

And of course, there are a fair amount of student players who are doing NIL in a classy way, donating to causes, etc.

But ESPN will hype the agent spiels and not those stories, and so, it will all be about money and me, me, me, and I'll say goodbye.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by Hyena »

Damnit...anyone else open this hoping it was going to be about a video game?
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by Lassr »

Skinypupy wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:39 pm

Speaking of, watching this Jimbo/Saban flap from afar is funny. While I don't disagree with Saban's main point (that NIL is out of control), watching the most dominant program in NCAA history whine about it is a bit eye-rolling.
Saban usually is very calculating in why and how he says these things and I think he may have taken the wrong approach this time, calling out actual teams. He and Jimbo were reprimanded yesterday by the SEC commish.

Also, I don't think it is whining, that is what everyone says when he brings up things he thinks is wrong with the sport. Just like he warned about the new offensive schemes that were changing football. He asked, "is this what we want?" and people said he was scared and threatened. HE then changed his team and produced one of the most dominant offenses in the game. So in this case, he again is warning, that soon you will have a handful of teams capable of supplying the $ to recruits and everyone else will be relegated to a lower tier. It was not a level playing field before (it never would be with 100+ teams at the same level) but it's going to shrink even more with maybe 10-15 teams able to buy all the top recruits.

My enjoyment of college football has diminished a bit. I have no problem with athletes earning money but it is not regulated and a bit like the wild wild west now. I've enjoyed Alabama's dominance the past decade obviously, but it was never going to last. We got lucky, we hired the right coach and had an administration that fully backed him and supplied funds to build the program. That is how it should be done. Not by who has the richest alumni to buy players.

It's close to the point where the power 5 teams will break off from the NCAA and form their own league. I've always advocated for a mid level tier of football with their own playoff so I think we are closer to that now.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by Lassr »

Pyperkub wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 11:17 pm As to NIL /pay for attendance/play. I hate it.

If it were actually NIL, I would probably be okay with it, but it isn't, and one of the things I love about college football is the idea that players are playing for something other than money.
That's how I always felt also. I'm trying to grow with the times. With the money driving college football, it was inevitable it would come to this. I will still watch but I don't love the game now like I used to.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by ImLawBoy »

The idea that college players at elite athletic departments were playing for something other than money was always an illusion - NIL is just pulling back the curtain and letting folks see the reality. Boosters have been paying players under the table for decades, and it has helped the same elite teams maintain the same elite levels. It'd be easy to pick on Saban and Alabama for this, but that's also a cheap shot as they're hardly alone in this game. The reality is that any major program that doesn't have boosters paying for athletes even before NIL was an exception. NIL has simply made it more acceptable and increased the stakes. Elite athletes will continue to go to the highest bidder as they have done for decades, but now they won't bother trying to hide it and they'll get even more money.

I also don't buy the idea that this will mean that we'll only have 10-15 teams able to compete at the elite level. I mean, that's the way it will be, but that's the way it already was before NIL. In the 8 years of the playoff, 13 teams have made an appearance. Four teams have taken 21 of the total 32 slots during that span. If you don't like that stratification of college football, I hardly see how NIL is going to make it any worse. Heck, it's more likely to increase the pool of viable teams if schools like Texas A&M and USC are able to up their games.

I think what we're seeing now is a bit of the wild, wild west, and it'll level out eventually. The NCAA could have prevented a lot of this current chaos if they hadn't tried to fight NIL tooth-and-nail at every opportunity and instead tried to lead on what was really an inevitability. At some point there will be some rules installed around the system that will give us the illusion of stability (and that boosters will get right back to ignoring). This is what major college sports is, was, and always will be.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by Skinypupy »

ImLawBoy wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 9:47 am Elite athletes will continue to go to the highest bidder as they have done for decades, but now they won't bother trying to hide it and they'll get even more money.
While there's some truth to this, NIL has accelerated the process faster and greater than anyone expected. I get that players were receiving perks and funds before. But I seriously doubt that players were somehow getting $3.5 million payouts (the reported sum for Addison to USC) under the table in the pre-NIL days.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by ImLawBoy »

Skinypupy wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 9:58 am
ImLawBoy wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 9:47 am Elite athletes will continue to go to the highest bidder as they have done for decades, but now they won't bother trying to hide it and they'll get even more money.
While there's some truth to this, NIL has accelerated the process faster and greater than anyone expected. I get that players were receiving perks and funds before. But I seriously doubt that players were somehow getting $3.5 million payouts (the reported sum for Addison to USC) under the table in the pre-NIL days.
I mean - that's exactly what I said in the part you quoted - "they'll get even more money". It's a matter of scale at this point. I also do think, as I noted, that this will eventually get corrected with some rules that help to recreate the illusion of a level playing field (that has never existed and will never exist in reality). I don't expect that these kinds of payouts will still be within the rules in the next 5 years or so (although I could be wrong on that - don't ever bet against the NCAA's ability to handle things in the worst way possible).
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by RunningMn9 »

As an outsider this whole thing seems absurd. NOW college football is going to stratify? Then only difference this will bring is which teams are elite. Other than that, it’s the same problem I have now will college football (which is that it almost always feels non-competitive). “Oh cool, another team is beating Rutgers by 87 points in the second quarter.”

The idea that Alabama is complaining after sitting there for a decade with five star recruits littering their bench. I mean, come on.

And to anyone that thought these kids were playing for the love of the game, and not to get to the pros. Seriously? It has always been about getting that bag. The only difference now is that they aren’t forced to work for free for 3-4 years first while everyone else around them makes money off of them.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by Pyperkub »

Skinypupy wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 9:58 am
ImLawBoy wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 9:47 am Elite athletes will continue to go to the highest bidder as they have done for decades, but now they won't bother trying to hide it and they'll get even more money.
While there's some truth to this, NIL has accelerated the process faster and greater than anyone expected. I get that players were receiving perks and funds before. But I seriously doubt that players were somehow getting $3.5 million payouts (the reported sum for Addison to USC) under the table in the pre-NIL days.
One thing to remember is that for College Football Elite Athletes who *will* be successful in the pros number in the few dozen a year at most. For those who *may* be successful as a pro, that's maybe a hundred.

As compared to over 9,000 players a year in just D1. For Men's College Basketball, those numbers are even more slim - maybe 20 players a year at most will be successful in the pros out of the 300+ D1 Hoops programs...

Additionally, we do not have this issue in Hockey/Baseball, where the Pro leagues have solid developmental leagues for those athletes so they can go Pro directly from HS if they so desire.

Oh, and ESPN's obsession with this already has them reporting on HS athletes with NIL deals (which is basically repeating Agent press releases, AND the money/gossip around these deals takes away from *actual* coverage of what happens on the field, because it is easier, and enables lazy debate with no real value, IMHO. Do I really care if Aaron Rodgers got 40 or 42 mil this year, or do I care if he is going to be on the field and how he will perform?
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by ImLawBoy »

Pyperkub wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:40 am Additionally, we do not have this issue in Hockey/Baseball, where the Pro leagues have solid developmental leagues for those athletes so they can go Pro directly from HS if they so desire.
Hockey is also very different because of the NHL's "draft and follow" policy. All players are draft eligible after high school, and if a player chooses to go to college anyway the drafting team holds onto that player's rights until they graduate (or just decide to go pro). That's how Michigan ended up with multiple first round draft picks on its roster last year. Those players still in college are still able to get nice NIL deals (maybe not college football worthy, but don't kid yourself about the popularity of college hockey where it's big such as the upper-midwest and northeast).
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by Pyperkub »

ImLawBoy wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:57 am
Pyperkub wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:40 am Additionally, we do not have this issue in Hockey/Baseball, where the Pro leagues have solid developmental leagues for those athletes so they can go Pro directly from HS if they so desire.
Hockey is also very different because of the NHL's "draft and follow" policy. All players are draft eligible after high school, and if a player chooses to go to college anyway the drafting team holds onto that player's rights until they graduate (or just decide to go pro). That's how Michigan ended up with multiple first round draft picks on its roster last year. Those players still in college are still able to get nice NIL deals (maybe not college football worthy, but don't kid yourself about the popularity of college hockey where it's big such as the upper-midwest and northeast).
Also remember that Minor League baseball is also a pittance. Nice signing bonus for top draft picks, but Minor League baseball is a sea of professionals getting paid less than the value of a scholarship. And then we look at how many hoops players declare for the NBA and don't even get drafted (there are about 3-5x as many guys who declare each year as there are draft picks).
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by ImLawBoy »

FWIW, a lot of those undrafted players end up going overseas to play professionally. I don't really have an idea of what pro basketball pays outside of the US, but it's probably more valuable to a lot of young players than tuition and room & board. NIL can actually help to keep a lot of these kids in the college ranks depending on how the numbers work out (but that's way more than I want to research at this time).
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by Hrothgar »

I realize Clay Travis is not the most popular guy around here, but I thought this was an interesting take that showed up in my feed.

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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by Pyperkub »

Dunno if anyone saw this (it was news to me) - from Wilner's Hotline story today:
Until recently, the specifics of the NIL economy were largely the subject of media speculation: Quarterback A received X in guaranteed payments before committing; Receiver B received promises of Y.

But Ohio State coach Ryan Day put a price tag on the cost of a national championship, telling a gathering of Columbus business leaders earlier this month that $13 million would be required to keep the Buckeyes’ talent-laden roster intact.

That sum isn’t distributed evenly. According to Cleveland.com, Day indicated premium quarterbacks are commanding $2 million, with elite offensive tackles and receivers in the $1 million range.

If the Buckeyes don’t pay top dollar, the transfer portal beckons.
$13 million a year to buy a roster. Wow.

I'd still rather those players just go pro. The full article goes into what NIL was supposed to be... and is, for the VAST majority of Student Athletes.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by stessier »

That strikes me as incredibly cheap. Rosters have 70+ players, right? And the coach makes between $7.5-9 million himself. There's no pro team where all the players combined make about as much as the coach.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by Scuzz »

stessier wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 1:58 pm That strikes me as incredibly cheap. Rosters have 70+ players, right? And the coach makes between $7.5-9 million himself. There's no pro team where all the players combined make about as much as the coach.
I would imagine the number of players actually getting a big nil is pretty small. Maybe 12-15? Mostly the skill positions and maybe a couple linemen and defensive players. With a pretty big drop in the pay scale.

As for your fourth sentence I assume you meant the players make less than the coach.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by JCC »

It's pretty chaotic right now. I listen to a couple of CFB podcasts regularly and there is definitely going to be a lot of buyers' remorse for some of these incoming recruits from the collectives throwing ridiculous money at them. There could also be buyers' and sellers' remorse for QB's in particular. If they get benched, are they going to transfer? If so, their NiL already belongs to a collective that paid them based on them attending a particular school (even though that's against the rules, wink wink). Going to be an interesting first few years of this new world.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

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You want chaos, here's chaos!
Pac-12 powerhouses USC and UCLA are involved in discussions to leave the conference for the Big Ten as early as the 2024 athletic season
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by Skinypupy »

Image

Looks like it'll be the SEC vs the B10 with everyone else as an afterthought.

it does raise the question of who the P12, er P10, would target for expansion. Maybe try and poach a couple Texas schools from the B12? Of course, there may not be much motivation to switch, if everyone is now at tier 1.5 level.

Between realignment and NIL, my general interest in college football decreases by the day. That said, I now want nothing more than to crush USC at our place this year.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by JCC »

The CFB Premiere League is coming eventually. A lot of "power 5" schools are going to be left out in the cold.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

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I do love the idea of USC flying all the way across the country to play at Rutgers. :lol:
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by Skinypupy »

Fucking chaos.


USC & UCLA move to Big Ten should be completed by Friday & Big Ten may not stop at 16, sources told @ActionNetworkHQ. Big 12 may get aggressive & look to add Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado & Utah. “We’re headed to super conferences,” source said

Big Ten isn't close to done. Keep an eye on Washington, Oregon, Stanford and Cal. (Maybe Utah/Colorado.)

I mentioned those for a reason.

Also, source says this is all FOX driven: "They made this happen. No way UCLA or USC reached out first."
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

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I'll believe it when it happens. If it does, I could see this as being part of the Big Ten's final push to get Notre Dame in the fold. ND's biggest rivals are USC and Michigan, plus they have decent rivalries with other Big Ten teams. It'd (continue to) be weird seeing them in/attached to the ACC given what would be their even stronger historical ties to the Big Ten after this.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

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ImLawBoy wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 4:59 pm I'll believe it when it happens. If it does, I could see this as being part of the Big Ten's final push to get Notre Dame in the fold. ND's biggest rivals are USC and Michigan, plus they have decent rivalries with other Big Ten teams. It'd (continue to) be weird seeing them in/attached to the ACC given what would be their even stronger historical ties to the Big Ten after this.
If it happens, it happens today/tomorrow. USC/UCLA's TV rights in 2024 to the pac-12 rollover on 7/1, and the B1G apparently held off on getting their TV deal done in May as initially promised - probably because of this (re: UCLA/USC only for now).

ND still has signed its rights over to the ACC if it ever joins a conference, so it would need to buy those back.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

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Skinypupy wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 3:54 pm I do love the idea of USC flying all the way across the country to play at Rutgers. :lol:
Or Minnesota in November after refusing to play in South Bend in November.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

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It's official;

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Re: NCAA Football 2022

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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by Pyperkub »

Skinypupy wrote:
Glad you got to go to one of what appears to be the last few traditional Rose Bowls!
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by Skinypupy »

Pyperkub wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:29 pm Glad you got to go to one of what appears to be the last few traditional Rose Bowls!
Boy, you ain't kidding. :( We've joked about it for years, but Larry Scott truly did kill the P12. Kind of an amazing feat, when you think about it.

Most of the news out now is that the B10 is staying put. If that happens, I have to think that Utah getting into the B12 is iffy, at best. Oregon and Washington would be the obvious first options, and the B12 already has a Utah presence (with a larger national following) in BYU. I have to think the other Cali schools or the AZ schools would be more attractive options, simply to increase the conference footprint. After that, expansion only starts to dilute the revenue shares. As solid as our football program has been, I don’t think Utah brings enough eyeballs to offset that.

Getting so close to the mountaintop last year, only to then being potentially relegated back to the equivalent of the MWC would be as big of a sports fan kick in the balls as I could ever imagine.

I need to try and just tune all this out, I think. There’s enough horrid shit going on in the world right now, this is just going to make me feel even worse. :?
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by Pyperkub »

Larry Scott made some huge mistakes, but he was essentially stuck with his Plan B.

If you recall, plan A was to form the Pac-16 instead of the Pac-12, with Texas, OU, Utah, Colorado, etc. creating the first super conference. If ESPN hadn't stepped in and bought off Texas/OU, we'd probably be in a better place, with a very strong Pac-16 to balance the SEC/B1G. Do that, and the Pac-12 (now 16) regional networks make a lot more sense, and Direct TV, et al, probably hop on the bandwagon etc. A lot of those dominoes would have fallen into place.

As is, he borked it all up in a ton of different ways and he still might have borked it, but there would be enough money to go around that it would end up getting fixed rather than blowing up again

The key is still that ESPN blew it up, and I don't doubt that a piece of that was Texas shopping around.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Can't they finally rename to "Big n."
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by JCC »

This is/was always going to happen. The writing has been on the wall for a while. A more competent Pac 12 commish would have just added delay to the inevitable. We are going to have 2 power conferences and a bunch of riff raff.

I would guess Oregon may be able to come to the party. Notre Dame would be invited in a second, but they are still tied up in their other sports to the ACC for now. I am sure that FSU, Miami, and Clemson could come to the party too, but their media rights are tied up until 2036. At some point, those schools will be willing to buy their way out of it - but it's going to be a while (or cost 9 figures). A few other ACC schools which bring basketball equity may get an invite down the road. I suspect, some of those ACC schools are eventually going to riot to get out of that ridiculous TV rights agreement.

What's very interesting to me is, will the SEC and Big 10 ever dare to kick some of their lesser schools out? I mean Vandy and Indiana deserve to play in the 2 (true) power conferences more than some of the Pac 12, Big 12, ACC schools do? Ridiculous.
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Pyperkub
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by Pyperkub »

JCC wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:07 pm This is/was always going to happen. The writing has been on the wall for a while. A more competent Pac 12 commish would have just added delay to the inevitable. We are going to have 2 power conferences and a bunch of riff raff.

I would guess Oregon may be able to come to the party. Notre Dame would be invited in a second, but they are still tied up in their other sports to the ACC for now. I am sure that FSU, Miami, and Clemson could come to the party too, but their media rights are tied up until 2036. At some point, those schools will be willing to buy their way out of it - but it's going to be a while (or cost 9 figures). A few other ACC schools which bring basketball equity may get an invite down the road. I suspect, some of those ACC schools are eventually going to riot to get out of that ridiculous TV rights agreement.

What's very interesting to me is, will the SEC and Big 10 ever dare to kick some of their lesser schools out? I mean Vandy and Indiana deserve to play in the 2 (true) power conferences more than some of the Pac 12, Big 12, ACC schools do? Ridiculous.
Yeah ACC buyback of the TV rights grants appears to be $50 million per school up until 2036. ND's aren't as tied, but there's still a buyout for them. I almost think that the ACC may end up being the ones to absorb/partner with big12/pac12 leftovers and manage to renegotiate then.

As to booting the lesser schools from the power 2? I doubt it. Those schools serve two purposes - be solid in other sports than football (both Vandy/Indiana have a solid history in hoops, for example), and be wins for the football powers ;).

As a Bruin, I am very saddened to have seen what's happening/happened, but I would be even more saddened by enduring another decade plus of near constant decline. I was at UCLA when we were constantly going to Rose Bowls and were actually in the National Championship discussions multiple years and finishing with a lot of top 10 finishes, and our major worry was if Hoops would ever get on its feet again.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by JCC »

UCLA made the only correct choice, but they are really going to have to step things up. Being a successful program (outside of the balance sheet) is about to get a lot harder for them.

As for the Rose Bowl, it's never getting its shine back.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by Pyperkub »

JCC wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 4:28 pm UCLA made the only correct choice, but they are really going to have to step things up. Being a successful program (outside of the balance sheet) is about to get a lot harder for them.

As for the Rose Bowl, it's never getting its shine back.
We're about there - hoops is definitely, and football was 8-4 last year, and was a lot closer to 9/10 wins than 7. Anything less than 9 wins this year will be a huge step back and 10 is more likely, given a weaker schedule. UCLA is well positioned to be a perennial top 10 team in hoops and football appears to finally have a solid foundation to string together some solid years (arguably even better situated than USC for the move to the B1G).

I'm not expecting UCLA to be a huge contender in football, we're probably more in the Iowa/Michigan State pattern, solid most years, with breakouts to contend for the Conference Title periodically, and a really tough road game for anyone. We might be able to reach the Penn St/Wisconsin level tho.

USC has some proving to do tho, what Riley does there the next 2 years will really define how they come into the B1G - can he develop a defense? Will his offense actually be that much better than what SC was under Helton? I'm not really sold yet. He's been really splashy on the Offensive side in recruiting/transfers, but it's the Defense which gave up 62 to UCLA last year which was a bigger issue...

Playing multiple road games multiple timezones eastward is going to be tough tho. That will be a huge challenge, especially when the Road Trips are against the lesser Big Ten Teams (e.g. I'm not seeing UCLA coming out fired up to play a 9am PST game at Rutgers). However, I do think Chip Kelly's dedication to fitness measurement and tempo using science will assist in having the Bruins as well prepared as possible for those awful jetlag games. Teams coming West don't have so much to worry about, but I would think that the game *after* a West Coast road trip would be the ones where some Big Ten teams will really come out flat, especially if they are back to back roadies - say an Illinois playing USC in LA one week, and being scheduled @ Maryland or @Rutgers the next is going to cause some body clock havoc.

Some B1G fans are making a big deal out of snow games, but the LA schools have played November roadies in WSU/Oregon St/ Utah/Colorado and because the crosstown rivalry will always be in November, I think that will be at most 2 games a year, and probably more like 1 at most. Also, UCLA's offense under Kelly is well suited for any weather, IMHO. OL footing is more the concern than anything else.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

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I really do hate what college football has become in the last decade or so. Money is now king, maybe it always was but at least it wasn’t so up front.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by Torfish »

To me this puts more excitement into college football. Being a college football fan in general and a big ten alum I will get to see some west coast football and great new matchups. Looking forward to it.
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Re: NCAA Football 2022

Post by Skinypupy »

Reports are that the B12 is meeting with the AZ schools, Utah, and Colorado today. While I don't get very excited about that option, it's likely better than staying in a USC/UCLA-less Pac 12, especially with Oregon and Washington simply waiting for the word before potentially jumping ship elsewhere. Some stability is probably better than none in this environment, at least until the megaconferences gobble up more teams.

Or maybe we're going to the SEC? (Narrator: They were not going to the SEC.)
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