Octopus Overlords

Posted: **Mon Nov 28, 2022 3:08 pm**

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 12:47 pm Yeah, that's just silly by ESPN. Best I can figure is that their models have USC losing in the Pac 12 championship, which would boost OSU back in.

Oddly, their FPI model gives Utah a 61% chance of winning the P12 CCG. Personally, I'd flip those percentages and maybe bump USC's even higher, depending on who is/isn't able to go for Utah (namely Kincaid, who got hurt against CU).

USC definitely has some defensive weaknesses, but Utah will need to play a near-perfect game to come out on top.

Posted: **Mon Nov 28, 2022 3:18 pm**

The current dynamic of being punished for qualifying for a conference championship but then failing to win it, is thankfully a short term issue. Once the field expands to 12, it will likely not be an issue (at least for undefeated teams going into the conference championship game). I would guess most if not all of 2 loss conference championship game losers will also get in - especially (but not exclusively) Big 10 / SEC teams. This is why divisions within coferences will also be going away.

Posted: **Mon Nov 28, 2022 3:24 pm**

is 12 a given? That seems too much to me. 6 or 8 seems perfect to me. It's enough to be fully represented and still make every game count. At 12 it seems like you'll see a lot of two team conference and sometimes even a three team conference representation, which means having a reputation and losing two games still gets you in, maybe even three games. In the Big 10 East that means UofM could lose to OSU every year and still lose to MSU or Penn State and be a shoein. That doesn't sound good to me to be considered a perennial championship caliber team.

Edit:

Blech

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/arti ... ybe-sooner

Posted: **Mon Nov 28, 2022 3:31 pm**

I would have been happy with 8.

From what I have read it is very optimistic to think it will happen before 2026.

Posted: **Mon Nov 28, 2022 4:36 pm**

Once you expand the playoff beyond 4, you're not really looking to crown the best team - you're looking to crown a champion. I'd be happy if they stick with the current formula (I was happy with the old BCS and also with the old bowl system, though, so grain of salt there), but if you're going to expand it, you might as well go big. Physically and logistically you can't go as big as the basketball tournament, but the more teams you get in there the more opportunities you have for upsets and Cinderellas and the more fun you have with it. I'd argue 8 is the worst option because you've done in with the idea that you're looking to crown the best team, but you haven't expanded enough to have the big upsets that make a tournament fun.

Posted: **Mon Nov 28, 2022 4:43 pm**

The kvetching from coaches in FBS about a bigger playoff keeping kids out of the classroom was always laughable to me as the FCS playoff is 24 teams!

I don't see FBS getting to 24, 12 is fine by me. Certainly better than 4.

Posted: **Mon Nov 28, 2022 5:12 pm**

pr0ner wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 4:43 pm The kvetching from coaches in FBS about a bigger playoff keeping kids out of the classroom was always laughable to me as the FCS playoff is 24 teams!

Two thoughts on this. First, I think that FBS playoffs are probably more demanding, both in terms of practice (official and unofficial) and off-field responsibilities. I don't have any first hand experience with this, of course, as my time at Michigan was before the playoffs and for some reason they wouldn't let me on the football team. Seems intuitive, though.

Second, maybe a 24 team playoff takes FCS players out of the classroom for too long? Just because someone is already doing something doesn't mean it's a good idea.

Posted: **Mon Nov 28, 2022 6:12 pm**

My problem with 12 is giving 4 teams an opening round bye. You will get the same arguments you get know trying to determine the top 4.

Also the history of the football playoffs shows a lack of upsets. There have been few surprises. So we go to 12 to see if 5 can get upset by 12?

Posted: **Tue Nov 29, 2022 10:33 am**

It's definitely going to be 12.

The only question is when. They are pushing to get it done for the 2024 season. From what I read, they have to finish this week to get it into the 2024 season. Otherwise, it will be 2026.

Posted: **Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:30 am**

Scuzz wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 6:12 pm My problem with 12 is giving 4 teams an opening round bye. You will get the same arguments you get know trying to determine the top 4.

There are always going to be arguments - that's a feature, not a bug. Having a bye for the top 4 teams helps to dampen some of the complaints about the regular season losing meaning with an expanded playoff. Some point to this year's Game and argue that it would be meaningless under an expanded playoff because both Michigan and OSU would get in regardless. But there would still be a lot on the line under the 12 team playoff because it would be the difference between a bye and no bye, and that's huge.

Scuzz wrote:Also the history of the football playoffs shows a lack of upsets. There have been few surprises. So we go to 12 to see if 5 can get upset by 12?

I'm not sure that it's accurate to say that there have been a lack of upsets. In 8 years of the playoffs, the number 1 seed has only won twice (2 seed three times, 3 seed once, 4 seed twice). Regardless, yes the point is to see if you can get 12 to upset 5 (and then to go further) so that a team like an undefeated UCF from a few years back can become America's darling for a few weeks.

Posted: **Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:35 am**

You guys can keep your who is the best discussion. I'm thinking about where Rice gets to play after sneaking into the bowl picture at 5-7 but with the highest graduation rate for athletes of the 5-7 teams which seems to mean that they must be picked before the other teams even if they won't (physically can't in most cases) bring as many fans!

Posted: **Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:49 am**

I'm good with four teams. The idea is that it might be hard to determine the top two teams, so let's get four in there to duke it out. But if your team can't lock in one of the four spots, you probably weren't a serious contender for one of the top two spots.

Posted: **Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:58 am**

McNutt wrote:I'm good with four teams. The idea is that it might be hard to determine the top two teams, so let's get four in there to duke it out. But if your team can't lock in one of the four spots, you probably weren't a serious contender for one of the top two spots.

Wrong. A lot of teams don't play their best ball until they have lost. Additionally this is about money, and 4 teams shuts out most conferences from that many, ensuring the rich get richer. There is also the matter of unbalanced schedules, with some conferences playing 8 and some playing 9 games.

All conference Champs should get in, as well as a wild card or 2, at least. Tho if you got rid of the wild cards, that would be OK by me, but not the huge conferences.

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Posted: **Tue Nov 29, 2022 12:15 pm**

Pyperkub wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:58 am
McNutt wrote:I'm good with four teams. The idea is that it might be hard to determine the top two teams, so let's get four in there to duke it out. But if your team can't lock in one of the four spots, you probably weren't a serious contender for one of the top two spots.
Wrong. A lot of teams don't play their best ball until they have lost. Additionally this is about money, and 4 teams shuts out most conferences from that many, ensuring the rich get richer. There is also the matter of unbalanced schedules, with some conferences playing 8 and some playing 9 games.

All conference Champs should get in, as well as a wild card or 2, at least. Tho if you got rid of the wild cards, that would be OK by me, but not the huge conferences.

If you don't play your best until after a loss that is your own fault, not the system's.

Posted: **Tue Nov 29, 2022 12:40 pm**

McNutt wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 12:15 pm
Pyperkub wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:58 am
McNutt wrote:I'm good with four teams. The idea is that it might be hard to determine the top two teams, so let's get four in there to duke it out. But if your team can't lock in one of the four spots, you probably weren't a serious contender for one of the top two spots.
Wrong. A lot of teams don't play their best ball until they have lost. Additionally this is about money, and 4 teams shuts out most conferences from that many, ensuring the rich get richer. There is also the matter of unbalanced schedules, with some conferences playing 8 and some playing 9 games.

All conference Champs should get in, as well as a wild card or 2, at least. Tho if you got rid of the wild cards, that would be OK by me, but not the huge conferences.

If you don't play your best until after a loss that is your own fault, not the system's.

Yeah. This is clearly about money, but I think the argument about playing your best only after you lose is pretty weak. If that's what it takes to make you play better, then you weren't as good as a team that didn't need to lose first.

Posted: **Tue Nov 29, 2022 1:28 pm**

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 28, 2022 12:30 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Sun Nov 27, 2022 2:53 pm
ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 27, 2022 1:25 am
Scuzz wrote: ↑Sun Nov 27, 2022 12:52 am I would think Georgia is the only true lock at this point. But if Michigan and TCU win out they are locks. I think if USC wins out they will get on over OSU. The Buckeyes getting trounced at home really look worse than a 1 loss team.
Would the committee really choose a 2-loss Alabama over Michigan?
No way. I think there’s a SLIM path for Alabama, but 95% (more?) chance that Georgia is the only SEC team in the playoff this year.
Right. Look at the scenarios if all 3 unbeatens lose their conference championships.

UGA - 12-1
Michigan - 12-1
TCU - 12-1
USC - 12-1 (assuming a win here)
OSU - 11-1
Alabama - 10-2
Tennessee - 10-2
PSU - 10-2
Washington - 10-2
Clemson - 10-2

If USC ends up losing, maybe OSU gets back in there (although maybe the committee decides not to punish USC for playing the extra game). With this scenario, the committee maybe knocks TCU out because they weren't "dominant" enough in winning all of their previous games. Again, OSU would be the likely beneficiary of this. But neither UGA or Michigan are going to fall out of the top four barring some kind of epic 30+ point loss. Even then, there's no way the committee can put OSU ahead of Michigan given the head-to-head result the week prior, so to get into the pool of two-loss teams you'd have to elevate one of them over two one-loss teams. I don't see a plausible scenario where anyone but the current top 5 get into the playoffs, and we're likely just trying to figure out whether USC or OSU gets the last spot.

This scenario is what worries me the most. If UGA and Michigan win and TCU loses, it wouldn't surprise me to have either TCU knocked out because of lack of blueblood status, or just as bad have USC jump us to put us against UGA first round. For what it's worth, I don't think ANYONE is going to stand up to UGA, but it would allow the SEC/B1G talking heads to say, "See? TCU didn't belong here!" I think we could give Michigan a run for their money, especially if we play like we did against ISU this past weekend.

Posted: **Tue Nov 29, 2022 1:36 pm**

McNutt wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:49 am I'm good with four teams. The idea is that it might be hard to determine the top two teams, so let's get four in there to duke it out. But if your team can't lock in one of the four spots, you probably weren't a serious contender for one of the top two spots.

I like 8 as you guarantee a spot for every conference champion. The conferences can decide how they do that. The additional spots will of course go to SEC teams.

Apparently there are two hold ups right now. One, the Rose Bowl is making demands. Two, ESPN has solo rights thru 2025 and the CFB wants multiple TV partners.

Posted: **Tue Nov 29, 2022 1:43 pm**

If all the top 4 other than TCU wins, I think TCU will get jumped by USC and should go to 4. Unless it's lopsided, I don't think a one-loss OSU who didn't even win their division should jump over TCU who had to play an extra game. That said, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the committee taking OSU in a ratings move (while denying it's a ratings move).

I may regret writing this, but I also don't think UGA is as dominant this year as they were last year. I'd still peg them as the favorites, but they're not unbeatable.

Posted: **Tue Nov 29, 2022 2:17 pm**

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 1:43 pm If all the top 4 other than TCU wins, I think TCU will get jumped by USC and should go to 4. Unless it's lopsided, I don't think a one-loss OSU who didn't even win their division should jump over TCU who had to play an extra game. That said, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the committee taking OSU in a ratings move (while denying it's a ratings move).

I may regret writing this, but I also don't think UGA is as dominant this year as they were last year. I'd still peg them as the favorites, but they're not unbeatable.

Yeah, this is the exact reason they jumped us in 2014, the "lack of an extra data point" because we didn't have a conference championship. So if they jump us because we lose, even though we have that extra win, it will definitely expose the man behind the curtain re: big name brand.

Posted: **Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:31 pm**

Posted: **Wed Nov 30, 2022 9:48 pm**

Oh dear lord...

Florida quarterback Jalen Kitna was arrested Wednesday on felony counts of child pornography, according to Alachua County Jail records. Kitna was booked at 3:20 p.m. ET and has been suspended indefinitely from the Florida football team.

Posted: **Thu Dec 01, 2022 12:46 am**

The Rose Bowl has agreed to the 12 team CFB. So we may see it next year. It is apparently worth an additional $450m over the next 2 years.

Posted: **Thu Dec 01, 2022 11:28 am**

Skinypupy wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 11:31 pm

Alabama won the playoffs after the 2017 season in a year where they didn't make their conference championship game, getting into the playoff after previously unbeaten Wisconsin lost the Big Ten title game. It's not unprecedented, unfortunately.

Posted: **Thu Dec 01, 2022 11:33 am**

Scuzz wrote: ↑Thu Dec 01, 2022 12:46 am The Rose Bowl has agreed to the 12 team CFB. So we may see it next year. It is apparently worth an additional $450m over the next 2 years.

Not next year. It will start in the 2024 season instead of 2026. Sounds like they threatened to leave the Rose Bowl out of the 2026 negotiations and they caved.

Posted: **Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:10 pm**

This morning, ESPN's analyst identified out two keys for Utah to defeat USC in the CCG:
1. Cam Rising must play well.
2. Tavion Thomas has to control the run game.

Tavion Thomas left Utah before last week's game. Such "expert" analysis.

I can guaran-damn-tee that if the third string RB for the SEC title game had so much as a hangnail, ESPN would be all over it.

Posted: **Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:34 pm**

Skinypupy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:10 pm This morning, ESPN's analyst identified out two keys for Utah to defeat USC in the CCG:
1. Cam Rising must play well.
2. Tavion Thomas has to control the run game.

Tavion Thomas left Utah before last week's game. Such "expert" analysis.

I can guaran-damn-tee that if the third string RB for the SEC title game had so much as a hangnail, ESPN would be all over it.

You know how things work at ESECPN. Although even Finebaum had to change his tune a bit after saying, "I can guarantee you no one in here will be watching the Big XII that closely." Now, apparently, he's all in for the Frogs...

(Still wish we'd have picked you guys up for the Big XII instead of BYU or Houston)

Posted: **Thu Dec 01, 2022 8:01 pm**

Hyena wrote: ↑Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:34 pm
Skinypupy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:10 pm This morning, ESPN's analyst identified out two keys for Utah to defeat USC in the CCG:
1. Cam Rising must play well.
2. Tavion Thomas has to control the run game.

Tavion Thomas left Utah before last week's game. Such "expert" analysis.

I can guaran-damn-tee that if the third string RB for the SEC title game had so much as a hangnail, ESPN would be all over it.
You know how things work at ESECPN. Although even Finebaum had to change his tune a bit after saying, "I can guarantee you no one in here will be watching the Big XII that closely." Now, apparently, he's all in for the Frogs...

(Still wish we'd have picked you guys up for the Big XII instead of BYU or Houston)

This will be even more apparent with ESPN getting shut out of the new B1G media contracts...

Posted: **Thu Dec 01, 2022 9:00 pm**

Sorry LawBoy....

Michigan running back Blake Corum will miss the rest of the season because of a knee injury requiring surgery, according to 247Sports' Sam Webb. Corum had emerged as a Heisman Trophy candidate prior to the injury, which he sustained against Illinois on Nov. 19.

Hopefully Edwards can hold up.

Posted: **Fri Dec 02, 2022 9:39 pm**

Wow, it's great to see a hotly contested contest in the Pac 12, with 2 high rated teams, with playoff implications, on a Friday night!

Posted: **Fri Dec 02, 2022 10:53 pm**

Two things about this game.

1. The Utah offensive line is winning this game.

2. The USC coach apparently believes analytics are more important than field position.

I can see Utah costing their conference a lot of money tonight.

Posted: **Fri Dec 02, 2022 10:53 pm**

Amazing first half effort from Utah, as I think we were about this close to getting boatraced.

I don’t know that we have the horses to keep it up, but it’s a hell of an effort so far.

Posted: **Fri Dec 02, 2022 11:09 pm**

Pyperkub wrote: ↑Thu Dec 01, 2022 8:01 pm ...This will be even more apparent with ESPN getting shut out of the new B1G media contracts...

When your conference has won 12 of the last 16 CFB national titles, including the last three (with three different teams, no less) I think a little bias is warranted.

Posted: **Fri Dec 02, 2022 11:34 pm**

Skinypupy wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 10:53 pm Amazing first half effort from Utah, as I think we were about this close to getting boatraced.

I don’t know that we have the horses to keep it up, but it’s a hell of an effort so far.

From Sooner Fans everywhere, including myself. Keep it up.

Posted: **Sat Dec 03, 2022 12:39 am**

Congrats to Utah for a great game. And here's to CHAOS!

Posted: **Sat Dec 03, 2022 12:45 am**

I’m stunned. Thrilled, but stunned.

Utah simply out-physicalled USC made them quit. That’s Utah football right there.

Posted: **Sat Dec 03, 2022 12:48 am**

It's funny that we're rushing into expanding the playoffs when we have at most 3 teams realistically in the discussion for "best" team.

Posted: **Sat Dec 03, 2022 12:49 am**

I'm so pissed that Williams was kept in the game for so long. Don't risk that kid's future when he's so obviously hurt.

Posted: **Sat Dec 03, 2022 12:50 am**

Quite the impressive beatdown by Utah. And a beatdown on the Pac 12 who will now not make the playoff. It seems wrong to punish a team for making their conference title game, but that's the dribbling shits of the 4 team playoff. I am glad in 2 years that will no longer be the case.

And of course Ohio State fans are now jubilant.

Posted: **Sat Dec 03, 2022 1:08 am**

I didn’t watch the entire game but when I did watch I was shocked at how bad the USC defense looked. Seemed like they couldn’t tackle anyone. Saw a run up the middle for 4 yards by the Utes where the running back was hit by like 6 or 7 different players starting a few yards in the back field and not a single one of them tried to wrap him up. They looked like they just wanted to run into him and hope he would fall down. Pathetic. Open receivers every time I saw Utah drop back. If TCU loses and they left both OSU and Alabama into the playoffs I might be sick.

Posted: **Sat Dec 03, 2022 1:33 am**

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Sat Dec 03, 2022 12:48 am It's funny that we're rushing into expanding the playoffs when we have at most 3 teams realistically in the discussion for "best" team.

Agreed. It will no longer be about finding out who is the best team in college football. It will be about making good TV, and that means bringing in the West Coast, Southwest and Mid-Atlantic teams that would rarely be there otherwise. And it does make winning your Conference more meaningful than ever as it will mean a chance to play in front of a huge audience for the National Title. But it's really going to suck the first time the Obviously Best Team loses their star player to an injury in his second playoff game leaving him unable to play in the finale.

Octopus Overlords

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