Hurricanes, Droughts and other Significant Weather 2022

[jztemple2]

Looking closer at the image, zoom in all the way and then using the Windows Magnifier, I'm actually a bit surprised at how many houses away from the beach still look pretty intact. They may and probably did flood inside, but most had intact roofs and even some with intact pool screens, or at least the framework of the screen.

What stood out to me was how many expensive homes were (visually) intact, while how many poorer homes were damaged. The people least able to bounce back took the worst of it.

Those who could build more expensive homes made them more hurricane resistant most likely.

Aren't new builds also held to the new, higher standards for hurrocane-proofing?

In my county, yes. Although there is no such thing as being hurricane proof, just like there's no such thing as bullet proof.

The plot on which a house sits is now required to be higher than when we built our house in 1984. My neighbor's house, built about five years ago, sits about three feet higher than mine. Roof trusses have to be more substantial and anchored better. Garage doors are no longer allowed to be fiberglass, but instead be wood or composite material with a certain weight per square foot. I'm sure that there are a number of others.

And of course houses built on the barrier islands have even more stringent requirements. My dad's house on Melbourne Beach was built with cinder block, then concrete was poured down through the openings, creating essentially an eight inch thick concrete wall. Windows were certified to 150mph. All that costs more money of course, but it is much more resistant to hurricanes than an old balloon frame house like ours.

[hitbyambulance]

here in Seattle - it's barely rained for the past three and a half months, it's 10-15 degrees above normal temperatures, there's a forest fire on the _western_ side of the Cascades and the smoke has settled over the city for the past week. no rain is forecast until about the middle of the month.

[Kraken]

Yikes. Droughts are basically just "too many nice days in a row," but they creep up on you.

We've returned to more normal rainfall, albeit still slightly less than normal, and that's not paying back our "water debt" from this summer (about 11" below normal). Rivers and streams are still very low. But at least plants are getting one last greening before winter sets in.

[msteelers]

Drove over to the northeast Orlando metro area (Oviedo) to have lunch at our favorite restaurant.

What’s the restaurant? I’m going to be near there on Wednesday.

I lived in Oviedo as a kid and went to college at UCF. I graduated in 2005, and I swear the entire town changed soon after. I barely recognize the place whenever I go back.

[jztemple2]

Drove over to the northeast Orlando metro area (Oviedo) to have lunch at our favorite restaurant.

What’s the restaurant? I’m going to be near there on Wednesday.

I lived in Oviedo as a kid and went to college at UCF. I graduated in 2005, and I swear the entire town changed soon after. I barely recognize the place whenever I go back.

It's the Millers Ale House on Mitchell Hammock. We aren't fancy food eaters, we like the atmosphere and have a favorite server (Wanda) who brings us onion ring dip in small soup bowls instead of those little cups.

Oh yes, it has really changed in Oviedo. On Mitchell Hammock on the east side of Alafaya there has been much recent new construction. Right now they are in the middle of putting up an apartment complex of several buildings. The mayor recently has been making motions about freezing new construction because the traffic has become so bad there.

And. of course UCF has become monstrous. New apartment complexes popping up everywhere. And on east University there are lots of new restaurants and even more apartments.

[msteelers]

It's the Millers Ale House on Mitchell Hammock. We aren't fancy food eaters, we like the atmosphere and have a favorite server (Wanda) who brings us onion ring dip in small soup bowls instead of those little cups.

I like Millers Ale House a lot. That used to be my go to for watching Steelers/Pens games. They don’t have one closer to you, or you like that particular location? There are 2 locations within 10 minutes from my house.

[jztemple2]

It's the Millers Ale House on Mitchell Hammock. We aren't fancy food eaters, we like the atmosphere and have a favorite server (Wanda) who brings us onion ring dip in small soup bowls instead of those little cups.

I like Millers Ale House a lot. That used to be my go to for watching Steelers/Pens games. They don’t have one closer to you, or you like that particular location? There are 2 locations within 10 minutes from my house.

There is one at the Waterford Lakes shopping center about the same distance away from us, but there is a Chick-fil-A next to it and the traffic is bad at lunch. There actually isn't a Millers nearer to us in North Brevard. Also, and the real reason , is that we get to drive through a lot of back roads and look at the birds, goats, sheep, cows, horses, mules, buffalos and other animals.

[Daehawk]

[jztemple2]

[jztemple2]

Tropical Storm Julia forms in southern Caribbean

Tropical Storm Julia, which formed along the northern coast of Venezuela at 11 a.m. EDT Friday with top sustained winds of 40 mph, is expected to intensify into a hurricane and bring dangerous heavy rains to much of Central America and southeastern Mexico. Julia is predicted to make landfall in Nicaragua on Sunday morning.

Julia’s formation date of October 7 comes about two weeks later than the typical September 22 appearance of the season’s 10th named storm. This season’s activity now stands at 10 named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index 78% of average for the date. The 1991-2020 averages for October 7 are 11.6 named storms, 5.6 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes. So in spite of the catastrophic rampage of Ian, the Atlantic as a whole is still having a slightly less active season than usual.

Julia formed in an unusual location for a tropical cyclone: very near the coast of Venezuela. When it was a tropical depression, between 11 p.m. EDT Thursday and 8 a.m. EDT Friday, Julia passed over two peninsulas of Venezuela, the Paraguaná and Guajira, that jut northward into the Caribbean. Only one other tropical cyclone in NOAA records has made it farther south into Venezuela: Tropical Storm Bret (1993), which moved bodily through interior northern Venezuela and produced devastating floods, killing more than 200 people.

Forecast for Julia

A ridge of high pressure to the north of Julia will keep it moving on a westward trajectory at about 15 mph through early next week, with its center just off the coast of South America through Friday afternoon. Except for its close proximity to land, conditions for development of Julia will be favorable, with warm waters near 29.5 degrees Celsius (85°F), moderate wind shear of 10-15 knots, and a moist atmosphere (a mid-level relative humidity of 75-80%).


Figure 2. Track forecasts out to 10 days for Julia from the 6Z Friday, October 7, run of the GFS ensemble model. Individual forecasts of the 31 ensemble members are the lines color-coded by the wind speed in knots they predict for Julia; red colors correspond to a category 1 hurricane. The time in hours from the model initialization time are in grey text. (Image credit: weathernerds.org)

Models are in good agreement on the forward speed of Julia, with the storm gradually slowing down from its current 18-mph forward speed to about 12 mph at the time of landfall in Nicaragua on Sunday morning. Once Julia is inland, the models indicate a likely bend toward the west-northwest, which would keep the center over land until it dissipates. The models are tightly clustered in their track forecast for Julia, and a landfall in Nicaragua is very likely, with the Colombian islands of San Andres and Providencia off the coast of Nicaragua also at risk.

After Julia pulls away from the coast of South America on Friday afternoon, a period of steady intensification is expected, and a burst of more rapid strengthening is possible from Saturday into early Sunday. The western Caribbean this weekend will have favorable conditions for Julia to spin up into a hurricane, and this portion of the Atlantic is notorious for seeing some outlandish rapid intensification events. The 6Z Friday runs of the top two intensity models, the HMON and HWRF, show Julia reaching category 2 strength with 100-mph winds at landfall on Sunday morning in Nicaragua. At 12Z Friday, the statistics-based SHIPS and DTOPS rapid intensification tools both gave odds of close to 30 percent that Julia would be near hurricane strength by Saturday morning, and SHIPS gave a 29 percent chance that Julia will be packing 105-mph sustained winds (category 2) by Sunday morning.

[Blackhawk]

If I am reading that map correctly (and I likely am), then Aruba just attacked Nicaragua with force lightning!

[Daehawk]

Dont mess with Aruba. Dynomite comes in small packages.

[stessier]

Dont mess with Aruba. Dynomite comes in small packages.

I've never thought of 6'1" as small.

[Daehawk]

J.J. close that door. I grew up on that show among many others.

[em2nought]

I just found my Plylox.

[jztemple2]

Quiet in the Atlantic, no disturbances to talk about. It's nice when it's quiet...

Not so four years ago, when Hurricane Michael made landfall as a Cat 5 storm near Mexico Beach, Florida.

[jztemple2]

As might be expected after Hurricane Ian, there is no longer any signs of drought in the Florida peninsula

[Kasey Chang]

Texas Roofer arrested in Florida for doing work after hurricane.

[msteelers]

I started to get a bit worked up over the take from the article. Unlicensed work after a storm is a major problem for Floridians, hence the stiff penalties. Then I saw the source. I'm not at all surprised a libertarian magazine would be irritated by a state enforcing laws like this.

[gilraen]

Unlicensed work after a storm is a major problem for Floridians, hence the stiff penalties. Then I saw the source. I'm not at all surprised a libertarian magazine would be irritated by a state enforcing laws like this.

Except he is fully licensed and runs a reputable business, and Florida chose not to honor a license from another state in an emergency situation. Because you can't have legitimate out-of-state businesses interfere with the local insurance grift.

[Isgrimnur]

Insurance journal

Texas has a long way to go but despite getting hit by four hurricanes and one tropical storm in 2020, Louisiana still ranks as one of the top 10 states for resilience based on its statewide building codes.

The “Rating the States: 2021” report by the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety explores conditions in the 18 U.S. states with hurricane vulnerability, evaluating both building codes and the administration of code provisions.
...
In the 2021 edition, Florida retains the top spot for strongest building codes with coming in second. Louisiana — in the “good” category — ranks eighth and Texas took the number 15 spot — in the “poor” category — topping only Alabama, Mississippi and Delaware.

[Pyperkub]

As might be expected after Hurricane Ian, there is no longer any signs of drought in the Florida peninsula

Flesh eating bacteria on the other hand...

In the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Ian, some of Florida's hardest-hit areas are facing a new threat—a wave of flesh-eating bacterial infections that can crest in sewage-contaminated floodwaters.

In the weeks since the natural disaster, authorities in Florida's Lee County—which surrounds Fort Myers—have seen a surge in potentially life-threatening Vibrio vulnificus infections. The bacteria are known to lurk in warm coastal waters, but fester amid pollution, particularly sewage spills.

This year, Lee County tallied 29 infections—27 identified in the aftermath of the hurricane—as well as four deaths.

[jztemple2]

Thankfully we are getting some cooler weather moving in and with the dry season starting that should help with the floodwaters.

[jztemple2]

Thankfully we are getting some cooler weather moving in and with the dry season starting that should help with the floodwaters.

A reminder that even with drier weather, flooding remains an issue: Floods continue to engulf a waterside animal enclosure and bar

OVIEDO, Fla. — Weeks after Hurricane Ian, many lake and river front properties are still in waist-deep water.

One of those locations is The Black Hammock, which is surrounded by floods. If the dinner tables could talk, they'd tell the stories of the families who have gathered at The Black Hammock for memories and a hot meal. "It's one of those restaurants where when you have your family members come to visit, you always think of The Black Hammock. And you wanna bring them out here to see the lake and enjoy the nice food," said Jayson Rivera, General Manager of The Black Hammock.

Rivera says the scene at the business is a far cry from the thriving energy The Black Hammock once had. The restaurant and adventure tour destination has closed doors indefinitely as they wait for the water to recede.

"This is the highest that we've seen it," recalled Rivera. The only area that is untouched is their additional raised restaurant space. However, even that has to remain closed, as there's no way in without walking through the water.

"Once the water level goes down a little bit, this will be one of the buildings that we can reopen," he said. The raised space has turned out to be a saving grace, as many other sources of income will need to be fixed or rebuilt entirely. One is their animal habitat, which houses the likes of cockatiels and macaws. The birds are safe at a temporary location, but their enclosure in Oviedo is still engulfed in water.

"Hopefully it comes down quick," said Rivera. "Just a lot of support would be great."

The Black Hammock is hoping to get approval to raise its bar space up so it won't be flooded after a hurricane again.

[msteelers]

Black Hammock is the first place I had gator tail back in the day. It's right on the water, and even during normal times it feels like you're always dealing with high water. We had a family reunion there a few Decembers ago, renting a house right on the water.

It's sad to see them still being affected so much by the flooding. Hopefully they can hang on through this until the waters recede.

[jztemple2]

NOAA releases its winter 2022-2023 outlook

Winter isn’t far off, and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released its outlook for December through February.

[Blackhawk]

I want a proper winter for a change!

I haven't even bothered to take my coat out of the closet in two or three years, and Indiana is normally freezing in the winter.

[Daehawk]

My sister gave me a puffy Nautica coat the other day. Red. Never had a puffy red coat. Im usually only in a hoody at best even on very cold days. I run warm and dont like being bundled up inside. But I also dont like freezing so Ill try it out if it gets cold enough.

[Kraken]

I want a proper winter for a change!

I haven't even bothered to take my coat out of the closet in two or three years, and Indiana is normally freezing in the winter.

Gas prices here are going up by as much as 60% (thanks, Putin) and that map says it's going to be colder than average. I just got a new zipper put on my winter jacket after it kept failing last year while I was in Muskegon, where a 6-kelvin wind never stops blowing. So I'm not looking forward to paying for warmth but my coat is good for another couple of years.

[Unagi]

I want a proper winter for a change!

I haven't even bothered to take my coat out of the closet in two or three years, and Indiana is normally freezing in the winter.

I don’t.
Winters cost a lot of money if they are super cold. Especially in these economic conditions.

I’ll take a mild winter every year, thank you very much.

[jztemple2]

Drove over to Oviedo (NE of Orlando) for lunch today, passing over the St Johns River on Hwy 50, west of the Kennedy Space Center. Four weeks after Hurricane Ian came through, the river is still in flood. Where cattle used to graze and meander across the the 2-3 foot deep river the water is now about a mile wide and probably too deep for cattle over most of it.

I am reminded about two facts concerning the St Johns River. It is one of the only two rivers in the Northern Hemisphere that flow primarily northward, the other being the Nile. And the other fact is that the river is very, very slow moving which isn't a surprise when you consider:

The drop in elevation from headwaters to mouth is less than 30 feet (9 m); like most Florida waterways, the St. Johns has a very low flow rate 0.3 mph (0.13 m/s) and is often described as "lazy" - Wikipedia

That means that the water that fell in the river near me takes over three weeks to reach the mouth of the river in Jacksonville, and I'm not even close to the headwaters. Which is why it takes so long for the flood waters to recede.

[jztemple2]

Uh oh, maybe another one. Our local hurricane guys, who are pretty good, this this one will end up hitting Central America.

1. Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the Windward Islands west-northwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the
Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[jztemple2]

6 times tropical cyclones devastated the U.S. in November

We have finally made it to the last month of the Atlantic hurricane season. Even though activity decreases during November, we have still seen some strong storms form. Let’s take a moment to look back in recorded history and count down the top November storms. Though most November storms stayed out at sea, there are a few that left a lasting impression on the U.S.

[Daehawk]

Above normal.

[jztemple2]

Before-and-After Photos Show Mountain of Cars Trashed by Hurricane Ian

Hurricane Ian took a horrible toll on the state of Florida when it made landfall Sept. 28. At last count, more than 140 people lost their lives in the storm. The damage to personal property is numbered in the tens of billions of dollars. Among the most visible items lost were cars, and now that cleanup has begun in earnest, we can get a glimpse of the number of vehicles lost by looking at inventory in vehicle salvage lots operated by a few companies including Copart. One of its biggest locations, on the coast of Lake Okeechobee near the town of Clewiston, had roughly a few hundred vehicles on Sept. 23. A little more than a month later on Oct. 30 satellite images show that the location is absolutely packed with new arrivals.

The shocking increase in inventory was noted by CarDealershipGuy on Twitter, although satellite images we've gathered as well as reporting by local media complete the picture. To be clear, Copart is not the only auto salvage business in the state of Florida. Even so, a spokeswoman for the company speaking to News-Press claims it has recovered more than 60,000 vehicles since Ian made landfall. The cars in the pictures below are only a fraction of that.

[jztemple2]

We took these photos today at New Smyrna Beach, south of Daytona Beach. It appears they lost about 15-20 horizontal feet of the dunes.

[jztemple2]

And with the photos above, from New Smyrna Beach in Volusia County FL, we now have this bulletin from their emergency management folks:

Brewing storm could cause more coastal damage
With high and low pressure systems expected to collide over the Atlantic Ocean this weekend, coastal residents – still reeling from Hurricane Ian’s destruction – can expect high winds, significant rainfall, crashing waves and extremely high tides for several days.

Officials from Volusia County and municipalities met today at the county’s Emergency Operations Center with staff from FEMA, the Florida Department of Emergency Management and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to share information and make plans to ensure the safety of residents. Employees from Volusia County and coastal municipalities are delivering a county issued emergency advisory to coastal residents advising them of the potential dangers. (The advisory is attached to this news release.)

A low pressure system churning south of Puerto Rico is expected to intensify and move toward Florida’s coast this weekend. Residents throughout the county can expect 1 to 3 inches of rain through Wednesday; the forecast for Thursday and Friday is unknown at this time. Meanwhile, winds will slowly increase with gusts up to 35 mph expected.

According to county officials, the storm will follow a slow, methodical progression over several days. Ocean wave run-up is expected to reach the dune line, possibly causing further erosion and additional damage to seawalls and coastal buildings.

Coastal residents are urged to take necessary precautions and consider moving to a safer location as soon as possible because storm impacts are expected to begin this weekend.

Residents are urged to stay off the beach for at least a week due to the dangers presented by wind, high surf and damaged beach structures. Beach ramps will be closed when tides become too high, and rescue vehicles will not be able to access the beach when the driving lanes are underwater.
Additional flooding along the St. Johns River is also a concern because persistent winds and rainfall could slow or even stall the decline in river levels.

[jztemple2]

More info on that storm:

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The trough is forecast to move northward over the southwestern Atlantic on Sunday, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form north of Hispaniola. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a subtropical or tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an
increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early to middle part of next week. The disturbance is also expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this weekend. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[em2nought]

I hope we get some rain from this as the sprinkler pumps have been down since Ian. I don't want to get a special assessment for new grass in the entire community. LOL Companies don't seem able to make a decent pump anymore.

[jztemple2]

I hope we get some rain from this as the sprinkler pumps have been down since Ian. I don't want to get a special assessment for new grass in the entire community. LOL Companies don't seem able to make a decent pump anymore.

"special assessment for new grass"? What's that? It isn't your sprinkler pump?