Hurricanes, Droughts and other Significant Weather 2022

[msteelers]

Our power came back around 8:20 this morning. Right after I ran the frozen food over to my moms so we could take advantage of her generator.

I’m glad you seemed to have escaped major damage jztemple. Hopefully em and any other FL OO’ers also faired well. The destruction out of the west coast is mind numbing.

I keep thinking about home insurance rates. The market has driven too many homes to the state run Citizens Insurance. And I believe that if needed they can charge every Florida homeowner to raise whatever funds they need.

I’m going to have to poke my insurance agent buddy to see just how screwed we all are. I imagine he’s pretty busy right now.

[jztemple2]

And now we're getting the backside of Ian as the eye has pasted over. The wind is not too bad but we really, really don't need the rain.

[Unagi]

A friend just texted me that he has heard that the Sanibel Lighthouse is gone.

he added "supposedly"

I’ve now heard that this is wrong.
The lighthouse is still standing.


Although I’ve heard that the causeway lost a segment

[jztemple2]

The wind is getting really strong now. We've also lost cable and internet.

[Holman]

Good thread on Waffle House. Its appropriateness to this topic will become apparent.

[jztemple2]

Cable and internet are back up. The winds really kicked up here in the late morning and through the afternoon as Ian moved away and we got the backside winds and more rain. Thankfully the wind has dropped to more reasonable proportions, but damn it is still raining . I tried to do some pumping down of the pond in my yard but it wasn't effective. I shouldn't complain, since while my side yard has a few inches of water, my neighbor has a couple of feet in his.

[jztemple2]

A friend just texted me that he has heard that the Sanibel Lighthouse is gone.

he added "supposedly"

I’ve now heard that this is wrong.
The lighthouse is still standing.


Although I’ve heard that the causeway lost a segment

Sanibel Island causeway bridge ripped apart by Ian

Hurricane Ian left a path of destruction in southwest Florida, trapping people in flooded homes, knocking out power and destroying the only bridge to Sanibel Island. A chunk of the Sanibel Causeway fell into the gulf, cutting off access to the barrier island where 6,300 people normally live. How many heeded mandatory evacuation orders was impossible to know in the storm’s immediate aftermath. A stretch of the Gulf Coast remained inundated by ocean water, pushed ashore by the massive storm.

[jztemple2]

Power outages as of 1pm today:

[jztemple2]

This was Times Square in Fort Myers Beach:


Now:

[YellowKing]

They've closed a bunch of stuff and schools have gone remote here in southeastern NC. Expecting tropical storm force winds possible through this evening, but if it moves quick we may be able to salvage some weekend.

Crazy how big these storms are. Even though it's over 300 miles away, we're already getting torrential downpours and wind.

[WYBaugh]

Is it likely to be a hurricane still when it hits GA/SC?

No, should be a tropical storm

And I was wrong!

[Carpet_pissr]

Virtual school here today in central SC, wife and I are WFH. Looks like we dodged a bullet - getting clipped by the outer bands right now.

I think it must have been pulled quite a bit further East than they were expecting because it looked like we were going to be right in the bullseye as of 24h ago or so.

If model holds it will hit Charleston as Cat 1 then turn into a TS by the time it (hopefully, just) brushes us tonight.

Side note: spoilered since it’s political

Spoiler:

I wonder how well the “Don’t Tread on Florida” t-shirts are selling on DeSantis’ online store right now? Did he even flinch or eye twitch when he (I assume) had to sign the request for FEMA.

[jztemple2]

By yesterday evening the water was still pretty much the same in the yard, but this morning the levels have significantly dropped. It's cool outside with a dry breeze which is is helping.

What isn't helping was my wife's decision to take a shower this morning . We were limiting toilet use, not using the washing machine or the dishwasher and I was taking my showers outside. When she took her shower the waste line under the house backed up through the base of my toilet and I had a little, smelly flood in there . I've got a call in to a septic company but they only have an answering machine working. Heaven knows how many people had the same thought but called earlier than I did.

Finally got to do a throughout inspection of the roof from a stepladder just before sundown yesterday. Apparently no shingle damage at all, which is a blessing. So no damage at all to the house.

[msteelers]

Finally got to do a throughout inspection of the roof from a stepladder just before sundown yesterday. Apparently no shingle damage at all, which is a blessing. So no damage at all to the house.

That's good news. My Orlando friends are all starting to chime in with what they are dealing with. A LOT of flooding. One picture I was sent had a home in Winter Springs with a foot or two of water all around it. Unfortunately, they didn't have flood insurance.

This is a good reminder that even if you aren't required to have it, flood insurance is a key policy to have. I looked into it a year or so ago, but with everything else getting expensive I couldn't afford it.

[Smoove_B]

I’ve now heard that this is wrong.
The lighthouse is still standing.
Although I’ve heard that the causeway lost a segment

Sanibel Lighthouse made it!
The surrounding buildings did not.

[stessier]

Virtual school here today in central SC, wife and I are WFH. Looks like we dodged a bullet - getting clipped by the outer bands right now.

I think it must have been pulled quite a bit further East than they were expecting because it looked like we were going to be right in the bullseye as of 24h ago or so.

If model holds it will hit Charleston as Cat 1 then turn into a TS by the time it (hopefully, just) brushes us tonight.

Side note: spoilered since it’s political

Spoiler:

I wonder how well the “Don’t Tread on Florida” t-shirts are selling on DeSantis’ online store right now? Did he even flinch or eye twitch when he (I assume) had to sign the request for FEMA.

E-learning in the Upstate today as well. Still no rain, just some gusty wind. Supposed to start raining in the next hour or so - should be over by morning. Current prediction is about 2 inches - down from 6+" earlier in the week. Nothing at all to complain about.

[jztemple2]

I've always generally observed that there's two types of weather you get after a hurricane moves through. One is where there's not much wind and it's humid and steamy and uncomfortable. This is the one of those storms where we get the other weather. It's breezy, sunshiny and the temperature is only 77 when normally the high would be in the upper 80s. So we're out running around doing your errands, picking up groceries and we're going to make a run to Lowe's later on.

[Carpet_pissr]

I've always generally observed that there's two types of weather you get after a hurricane moves through. One is where there's not much wind and it's humid and steamy and uncomfortable. This is the one of those storms where we get the other weather. It's breezy, sunshiny and the temperature is only 77 when normally the high would be in the upper 80s. So we're out running around doing your errands, picking up groceries and we're going to make a run to Lowe's later on.

Wow, stores are already open?

[msteelers]

I've always generally observed that there's two types of weather you get after a hurricane moves through. One is where there's not much wind and it's humid and steamy and uncomfortable. This is the one of those storms where we get the other weather. It's breezy, sunshiny and the temperature is only 77 when normally the high would be in the upper 80s. So we're out running around doing your errands, picking up groceries and we're going to make a run to Lowe's later on.

Yes. The weather is incredible today. There was a genuine chill this morning and right now it’s sunny and 77 with low humidity.

[Carpet_pissr]

I've always generally observed that there's two types of weather you get after a hurricane moves through. One is where there's not much wind and it's humid and steamy and uncomfortable. This is the one of those storms where we get the other weather. It's breezy, sunshiny and the temperature is only 77 when normally the high would be in the upper 80s. So we're out running around doing your errands, picking up groceries and we're going to make a run to Lowe's later on.

Yes. The weather is incredible today. There was a genuine chill this morning and right now it’s sunny and 77 with low humidity.

I guess I expected flooded stores. We had a pretty nasty flood here about...10 years ago and water at the Lowe's near me was almost at the top of the entrance sliding door. I assume most of the goods inside were ruined.

[jztemple2]

Yup, all the stores I saw were open. Our area is used to massive summer downpours that can result in several inches per hour. We got mail delivery too.

[jztemple2]

Much of the water in the street is gone and most of the lawn is at least not under standing water. Due to our issue mentioned above I called around and finally found a septic company that will come out and pump our tank on Sunday. Until then I'm worried that the drain field is still saturated so it's outdoor showers, no washer or dishwater and minimal toilet use. I have made a note in my calendar to pump out the septic tank each year in August

We drove to the grocery store and pool store and the Lowes up near us and it looks like most streets don't even have any standing water, just water in the swales. Even the drainage canals look fine. My neighbor tells me we got 18-20" in our locale so I guess we should be thankful that it has mostly drained or been absorbed.

Also surprisingly I couldn't see more than one or two trees down and those were not in anyone's yard. And not roof damage that I could see. We really lucked out that as the storm approached it lost wind speed and after it passed over us the wind speed increased slowly enough that we missed getting hit by the reestablished hurricane force winds.

[Daveman]

Current aerial photos of Sanibel/Captiva and some surrounding areas...

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/ian/ ... /-82.02380

Just casually looking over I see some condo units without roofs.

I get that the news keeps talking about the 50' section of the causeway bridge that collapsed, but look at the rest of the causeway. It's not bridge, but there are MUCH larger sections of roadway on the little connecting islands that are just gone.

[jztemple2]

Yes, I noticed that about the causeway too. The restaurant we went to last year at Tarpon & Periwinkle is still there, at least the building is, but I'm sure it is probably a complete write-off. Meanwhile, in Daytona Beach:

[Isgrimnur]

Yes, I noticed that about the causeway too. The restaurant we went to last year at Tarpon & Periwinkle is still there, at least the building is, but I'm sure it is probably a complete write-off. Meanwhile, in Daytona Beach:

For a peninsula that’s made out of limestone, it certainly seems to have drainage issues.

[jztemple2]

Current aerial photos of Sanibel/Captiva and some surrounding areas...

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/ian/ ... /-82.02380

Just casually looking over I see some condo units without roofs.

I get that the news keeps talking about the 50' section of the causeway bridge that collapsed, but look at the rest of the causeway. It's not bridge, but there are MUCH larger sections of roadway on the little connecting islands that are just gone.

Looking closer at the image, zoom in all the way and then using the Windows Magnifier, I'm actually a bit surprised at how many houses away from the beach still look pretty intact. They may and probably did flood inside, but most had intact roofs and even some with intact pool screens, or at least the framework of the screen.

[jztemple2]

For a peninsula that’s made out of limestone, it certainly seems to have drainage issues.

It takes a while for water to percolate down through limestone. The good news is that it replenishes the aquifer.

[Blackhawk]

Looking closer at the image, zoom in all the way and then using the Windows Magnifier, I'm actually a bit surprised at how many houses away from the beach still look pretty intact. They may and probably did flood inside, but most had intact roofs and even some with intact pool screens, or at least the framework of the screen.

What stood out to me was how many expensive homes were (visually) intact, while how many poorer homes were damaged. The people least able to bounce back took the worst of it.

[jztemple2]

Looking closer at the image, zoom in all the way and then using the Windows Magnifier, I'm actually a bit surprised at how many houses away from the beach still look pretty intact. They may and probably did flood inside, but most had intact roofs and even some with intact pool screens, or at least the framework of the screen.

What stood out to me was how many expensive homes were (visually) intact, while how many poorer homes were damaged. The people least able to bounce back took the worst of it.

Those who could build more expensive homes made them more hurricane resistant most likely.

[Blackhawk]

Right, but that still supports my point.

[YellowKing]

We did have one casualty - the kids trampoline blew over last night.

I usually take it down before any storms, but the winds we were getting yesterday were never blowing hard enough to really budge it. I kept an eye on it throughout the day and it looked like it was going to make it through just fine with the storm passing. I guess sometime overnight we got a freak gust that hit it just the right way and over she went. Took out a few birdfeeders with it.

Oh well, gives me an excuse to take it down for the winter. It's an eyesore anyway, and the kids don't use it enough for it to be worth the hassle.

[stessier]

It started raining here about 3pm on Friday and was done by the time I woke up around 4am on Saturday. It never really got over a solid drizzle. The wind never got bad here either. It was pretty steady on Thursday (I'd guess around 10-15mph), but on Friday it was only intermittently gusty. Everything is calm now.

[Unagi]

What stood out to me was how many expensive homes were (visually) intact, while how many poorer homes were damaged. The people least able to bounce back took the worst of it.

Right, but that still supports my point.

In all circles of life, plant/animal, those with the least resources are always going to be the most affected by an extreme event like this.
In this case, I mean - of course, a house that had a load of money put into it will very likely look more visually intact than a mobile home that was blown apart. It's just physics, the cost of materials, and labor.

I think the point you were making confused me (and perhaps others a little) as it sounded like a point that is often totally appropriately made in the context of our government response, laws, and our entire culture.

So it seems like a comment that will certainly apply more in the days to come, but not as meaningful when it's just about the degree of damage done to structures after a Cat-4 Hurricane. They all took the worst of it...
I'm not trying to argue that the poor didn't have their homes more damaged - but it's not something that reflects our culture. And I'm thinking you never intended the comment that way, but as I said - I'm used to that assessment being fairly laid at the foot of our culture, so I instinctively thought that's what your point was too.

[Blackhawk]

I am poor in a society that sets human value based on your income, so I'm a little over sensitive. It struck me as off to hear the damage described as 'some condo units without roofs' when just off to the side I could see smaller houses (poorer people) smashed to bits and what looked like trailer parks (even poorer people) obliterated.


/edit - feel free to ignore this. It just struck a sore spot. I didn't mean to be a downer in the hurricane thread.

[em2nought]

...and the electricity has finally returned on Sunday Oct 2nd. I think they took me off the vital hospital grid to put the new WaWa on it instead. Irma was much worse than Ian here, except for rainfall. Our lake was over the community dock, but luckily I'm a good twenty feet higher than that. The underlayment fabric that served as my not completed roof held up surprisingly well. I hope they get my roof on early this week while the weather is good.

Best product for the hurricane is my $10 battery powered camping fan that I bought from Aldi sometime before Irma. It's made comfortable sleep possible during Irma & Ian on the same batteries that it came with in 2017. Two days without power for Irma, four days without power for Ian.

I need to find a good stopper for the bathtub as it only holds water for about two hours the way it is now.

All in all, the weather wasn't as bad as a typical day in the Holy Loch.

[Smoove_B]

I need to find a good stopper for the bathtub as it only holds water for about two hours the way it is now.

Might be better off with something like this.

[jztemple2]

...and the electricity has finally returned on Sunday Oct 2nd. I think they took me off the vital hospital grid to put the new WaWa on it instead. Irma was much worse than Ian here, except for rainfall. Our lake was over the community dock, but luckily I'm a good twenty feet higher than that. The underlayment fabric that served as my not completed roof held up surprisingly well. I hope they get my roof on early this week while the weather is good.

Best product for the hurricane is my $10 battery powered camping fan that I bought from Aldi sometime before Irma. It's made comfortable sleep possible during Irma & Ian on the same batteries that it came with in 2017. Two days without power for Irma, four days without power for Ian.

I need to find a good stopper for the bathtub as it only holds water for about two hours the way it is now.

All in all, the weather wasn't as bad as a typical day in the Holy Loch.

Glad to hear that your power is back on. The longest time after a storm without power we've had was a week, which was in 2004 after Charley which was the same path as Ian. Three hurricanes hitting us that year really helped weed out the weak links of the grid.

And nice to hear that your partial roof came through alright.

Good news, Lake Okeechobee in good shape to handle Hurricane Ian’s rains. That drought in South Florida had brought the lake level down, now the drainage from Ian will bring it back.

Unfortunately there is also this:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands was headed west at 15-20 mph. This system has mostly favorable conditions for development, with warm waters and moderate wind shear, though dry air to its north and west was hampering development. The wave was showing increasing organization on satellite imagery on Sunday, and will pass through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Wednesday, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain showers. The Sunday morning runs of the GFS and European ensemble model forecasts gave the wave modest support for development by late this week, when it is expected to be in the central Caribbean. In its Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 8 a.m. EDT Sunday, the National Hurricane Center gave the system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 20%, respectively. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this wave on Tuesday, if necessary.

[jztemple2]

Don't know when this photo was taken, but man, that's normally a busy stretch of interstate

[jztemple2]

Drove over to the northeast Orlando metro area (Oviedo) to have lunch at our favorite restaurant. Surprisingly little damage to trees and none to houses. Lots of water in the roadside ditches but only a few houses with water still in the yards. Power is back on to everyone except apparently one house which has a "FP&L, help!" sign out front.

Our route took us on Highway 50 over the St Johns River at the Brevard/Orange County line. The river is very, very full . There is a place that gives airboat rides but it is closed due to flooding. Of course the people who have private airboats love it since the access ramps are still open and with the water that high they have access to areas that normally are land.

More flooding is expected in the next week in our local counties as runoff and drainage water goes into the St Johns and raises its level.

Meanwhile, more trouble is brewing: A new tropical threat heads toward the Caribbean

Just days after Hurricane Ian tore across Florida, a new system several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands may gradually develop into a named storm that could eventually threaten parts of the Caribbean. This tropical wave was designated Invest 91L on Sunday and was headed west at 15-20 mph. The system has favorable conditions for development, with warm waters near 30 degrees Celsius (86°F), light wind shear of 5 – 10 knots, and a reasonably moist atmosphere (a mid-level relative humidity of 65%).

Figure 1. Track forecasts out to 10 days for 91L from the 6Z Monday, October 3, run of the GFS ensemble model. Individual forecasts of the 31 ensemble members are the lines color-coded by the wind speed in knots they predict for 91L; red colors correspond to a category 1 hurricane. The time in hours from the model initialization time are in grey text. The more southerly ensemble members were for a weaker storm; if 91L develops quickly, a more northerly track was indicated. (Image credit: weathernerds.org)

And this:

The latest estimate of U.S. insured damage from risk modeling firm Verisk was between $42 and $57 billion on Monday. Since total damage typically ends up a factor of two higher than insured damage, the total price tag for Ian’s rampage might be in the $90 – 110 billion range, which would make it one of the five most expensive inflation-adjusted weather disasters in U.S. history (see our post from September 30). The other four are all hurricanes that occurred with the last 20 years: Katrina, Harvey, Maria, and Sandy.

[LawBeefaroni]

Looking closer at the image, zoom in all the way and then using the Windows Magnifier, I'm actually a bit surprised at how many houses away from the beach still look pretty intact. They may and probably did flood inside, but most had intact roofs and even some with intact pool screens, or at least the framework of the screen.

What stood out to me was how many expensive homes were (visually) intact, while how many poorer homes were damaged. The people least able to bounce back took the worst of it.

Those who could build more expensive homes made them more hurricane resistant most likely.

Aren't new builds also held to the new, higher standards for hurrocane-proofing?