Hurricanes, Droughts and other Significant Weather 2022

[Jaymann]

So Canada borders on Florida now?

[jztemple2]

So Canada borders on Florida now?

From all the Canadian license plates I see here in Florida, I'd say it is likely

[Roman]

Canada is very old. I'm not surprised about that. But to see it in my lifetime...........

As a proud Canadian you made me chuckle. Thank you dbt.

[jztemple2]

From the tropicaltidbits.com website, a collection of models for 9/24 (today) at 1800z


And the intensity forecast models


My interpretation... the royal blue lines showing the storm coming ashore further south on the Florida peninsula are also the ones that show the least intensification. The reds and the greens, which show more intensification, have it aiming for the Florida Panhandle. So, as of right now, it looks like Central and South Florida might be ducking a major hurricane coming ashore, while if it does hit around Pensacola it would be much stronger.

However, the important takeaway is that all the models follow mostly the same path for the next 72 hours so that is won't be till Tuesday midday that there will be a lot of confidence in the final path. Until then, plan for the worst, hope for the best

[Isgrimnur]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Canada_hurricanes

[em2nought]

I'm just about out of the cone which is a good thing for me at least because I've got the idea that response times aren't going to be anywhere near what they were when Irma hit. Gas and water are already mostly gone locally. Canned goods are getting rationed. I can picture the banks being closed for a month.

[msteelers]

The damage would have to be catastrophic for banks to be closed that long.

[jztemple2]

The 8am EDT spaghetti and wind intensity models are pretty much unchanged from last night. Still waiting for the turn to the north. It might not be till Tuesday morning for a consensus on the models.

My wife's and my position is that if the power is going to be out we will be going to stay somewhere where there is power. We have evacuated three times in the past couple of decades prior to the storm hitting. So far we are just going to be watching before making any decisions. The track moving to the west is comforting.

[jztemple2]

This is from our county emergency management folks, helping to explain what is meant by the "cone".

[jztemple2]

Gas and water are already mostly gone locally.

Gas as in gasoline or gas as in propane?

[Jaymann]

Powerful typhoon Noru gains strength prompting evacuations in Philippines.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/powe ... -rcna49311

Waiting to hear from my son.

[jztemple2]

Powerful typhoon Noru gains strength prompting evacuations in Philippines.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/powe ... -rcna49311

Waiting to hear from my son.

Wow, that's quite a storm. Hope you hear from your son soon. Does he live there?

[Jaymann]

Long term visit + girlfriend.

[jztemple2]

Hmm... Bethune-Cookman University in Daytona Beach just announced a mandatory campus evacuation starting noon tomorrow. The news reporter was interviewing a guy who was packing up to leave.

[Jaymann]

Heard from my son in Manila, says the storm is "ongoing."

[msteelers]

The one gas station we went to today was out of gas. Which is kind of surprising to me, considering we’ve never been looking at a direct hit from this storm. But also not fully unexpected either. We’ve got plenty of gas in our cars, so I’m not worried. I’ll venture out tomorrow and try to get some.

[jztemple2]

We got gas today, no problems, no line. Grocery store wasn't too busy either. They were out of propane, but that's no issue for us, we kept a full one besides the one on the BBQ.

[jztemple2]

It's time for the 8am EDT update and things are looking worse for the Florida peninsula. The hoped for (by me) shift to the west isn't happening. We're now looking at a path that has Ian as a major hurricane passing very close to or even over the Tampa-St. Petersburg metro area.

[Smoove_B]

From 2018, the way we categorize hurricanes puts people in danger:

The problem is that the Saffir-Simpson scale tells experts only what to expect in terms of wind speeds, whereas hurricanes are multihazard phenomena. Yes, high wind speeds can be deadly and costly, and we absolutely want people in harm’s way to be aware and take appropriate actions to protect themselves. However, other hazards ― like storm surge and rainfall ― are equally if not more important to communicate and understand. Currently, our hurricane scale doesn’t account for either.

Few members of the general public seem to understand that the scale accounts for just wind speed, and many people use the category number to judge how seriously they should take a storm (despite the fact that’s not what the scale was intended to communicate). Research conducted after 2008’s Hurricane Ike in Texas suggested that some people are more likely to evacuate as a storm’s category number rises. This should be of concern to emergency managers, since it implies that fewer people will evacuate for Category 1 and 2 storms, although they are often dangerous enough to warrant widespread evacuation.

...

For those trying to manage such situations, the interaction among the hazards and an area’s residents needs to be considered. How will each hazard affect what lies in a storm’s path? Which areas are expected to flood? How badly will they flood and for how long? Who and what are in those areas? Who needs to leave? How do we get them out? Can anything be done beforehand, like putting sandbags out to minimize flooding?

Responding to a hurricane that comes and goes within 24 hours may require a different approach from hurricanes like Florence and Harvey, which stay relatively stationary for several days, dumping record-breaking amounts of rain that lead to widespread flooding. For example, in the former scenario, three days’ worth of food and water is probably sufficient; in the latter, a week’s worth of supplies or more may be needed. Such differences matter when preparing for and responding to a storm.

The Saffir-Simpson category system tells only a small part of a hurricane’s story, and we need to find a way to tell the rest. Instead of focusing on just a storm’s wind speeds, we need a way to account for all aspects of a storm so we can more accurately disseminate lifesaving information to the public.

Stay safe, FL OOers.

[jztemple2]

Stay safe, FL OOers.

Thanks, we appreciate your thoughts

Latest model runs are still all over the place. It will probably be another 24 hours before we can be reasonably certain whether it will come ashore at Fort Myers, St Pete or Destin.

[jztemple2]

This is from the NHC and based upon the current projected path. My brother in law has a house on a canal in St Pete on the Gulf side, but on the mainland and not on the barrier islands. It's going to be touch-and-go as to whether he gets flooded out. Right now he's up at his summer home is North Carolina so his daughter is stuck with getting all the preps done.

[jztemple2]

The below image is from the NWS Southern Region Tropical Webpage. This is a good site with tabs and buttons that bring up various information. Sort of a one-stop location for all your paranoia needs

[Unagi]

That looks like a direct hit to Sanibel Island.
(I realize it’s all still too early to put any faith in the precision.)

[jztemple2]

That looks like a direct hit to Sanibel Island.
(I realize it’s all still too early to put any faith in the precision.)

And even if not a direct hit, Sanibel will be in the worst quadrant of the storm. I was reading somewhere that the Tampa-St Pete area hasn't had a direct hit by a storm in 101 years, so they may not have their infrastructure as well tested as we do over here on the east coast.

[Unagi]

I could swear they (Sanibel/Captiva) got hit pretty good somewhat recently (ended up being not as bad as it could have been though, IIRC). And then many years ago (I’ll go look it up) , I believe Captiva got hit so hard that it basically got split, with a northern tip being severed off the island.

Not sure if those would count. The former was probably not a direct hit , but I thought the latter was.

[jztemple2]

I could swear they (Sanibel/Captiva) got hit pretty good somewhat recently (ended up being not as bad as it could have been though, IIRC). And then many years ago (I’ll go look it up) , I believe Captiva got hit so hard that it basically got split, with a northern tip being severed off the island.

Not sure if those would count. The former was probably not a direct hit , but I thought the latter was.

You could be right. The article I mentioned was talking about Tampa-St Pete which is about 100 miles north of Sanibel. I do recall that in the maybe last decade a major storm came ashore at Punta Gorda, which is about 35 miles north of Sanibel. Again, that would have put Sanibel on the eastern, more dangerous side of the storm.

[hitbyambulance]

cue CNN:

[gilraen]

Well, to their credit, that's a quote from someone at the National Weather Service.

[The Meal]

Didn’t a relatively recent hurricane empty out Tampa Bay (and then surge it back full up)?

[Unagi]

I could swear they (Sanibel/Captiva) got hit pretty good somewhat recently (ended up being not as bad as it could have been though, IIRC). And then many years ago (I’ll go look it up) , I believe Captiva got hit so hard that it basically got split, with a northern tip being severed off the island.

Not sure if those would count. The former was probably not a direct hit , but I thought the latter was.

You could be right. The article I mentioned was talking about Tampa-St Pete which is about 100 miles north of Sanibel. I do recall that in the maybe last decade a major storm came ashore at Punta Gorda, which is about 35 miles north of Sanibel. Again, that would have put Sanibel on the eastern, more dangerous side of the storm.

Here is what I was talking about - (perhaps this is the storm you are talking about too)

Captiva was seriously damaged in August 2004 when the eastern eyewall of Hurricane Charley struck North Captiva, immediately before hitting Charlotte Harbor to the north-northeast. Initial reports indicated that 160 buildings were destroyed and another 160 seriously damaged. Reports indicate that the storm surge cut a path 491 yards (449 m) wide across the narrowest part of North Captiva, separating the island. The separation of the two halves of the island began three years earlier during a series of tornadoes caused by Tropical Storm Gabrielle that passed through the area in September 2001.[8] The new pass filled in within a few years and is now back to its pre-Charley state. Most of the invasive Australian pines on the island blew over in the hurricane, making room for native mangroves and sabal palms.

edit: picture added

Look's a lot like Ian.

[Unagi]

Didn’t a relatively recent hurricane empty out Tampa Bay (and then surge it back full up)?

Hurricane Irma - 2017

[The Meal]

What letter of the alphabet was Irma…

[Unagi]

Irma

[jztemple2]

edit: picture added

Look's a lot like Ian.

Yup, Charlotte Harbor is next to Punta Gorda. And that track does look like Ian, darn it

[jztemple2]

Latest model runs, today at 1800z/2pm EDT. It might not be till Tuesday evening that we have a clear picture of the path. By the way, those royal blue track lines actually exit the Florida peninsula pretty much right over my house

[jztemple2]

Current radar and satellite image. South Florida is already seeing bands of rain.

[em2nought]

The damage would have to be catastrophic for banks to be closed that long.

You'd think, but not necessarily in smaller towns with limited employee pools.

Prepositioned my Irma plywood shutters with Plylox into my minivan today. I'm going to risk it with my porch sliding doors this time since they're filmed now. No bowling alley next door to catch fire and burn to the ground in the middle of the hurricane this time.

By the way, those royal blue track lines actually exit the Florida peninsula pretty much right over my house

After passing over me in the middle of the state. We don't like the royal blue track.

[jztemple2]

I'm also using my Weather Underground 10 day forecaster to determine wind direction. For the period of strongest winds I'll be seeing them blowing in from the east and then go clockwise to the south. That's good since the only significant windows we have are on the west side of the house, the ones facing east are smaller and behind pool screening and a vinyl fence.

[msteelers]

I'm also using my Weather Underground 10 day forecaster to determine wind direction.

I didn't know that was a feature. In my area they'll start growing Tuesday, and peak around 25mph from the SSE from noon Wednesday until 4pm Thursday.

If that's true then we might just have to worry about some tropical storm wind gusts. I'll have to keep an eye on the local news to verify.

[jztemple2]

I'm also using my Weather Underground 10 day forecaster to determine wind direction.

I didn't know that was a feature. In my area they'll start growing Tuesday, and peak around 25mph from the SSE from noon Wednesday until 4pm Thursday.

If that's true then we might just have to worry about some tropical storm wind gusts. I'll have to keep an eye on the local news to verify.

Yup, I just use WU as one source but always crosscheck.

The Spectrum weather guy was talking about how the NHC still is waiting for more data to tighten up the predicted path. I remember this same sort of thing happening a few years ago with that hurricane that eventually hit Mexico Beach in the Panhandle. For a while they thought the storm would come up the east side of the peninsula, but of course it eventually went up the west side, staying offshore far enough to avoid putting on too much damage to the Tampa-St Pete area.