Hurricanes, Droughts and other Significant Weather 2022

[Isgrimnur]

[Smoove_B]

This image from like 10 minutes ago does not look good.

[jztemple2]

Latest models from 00z, 8pm EDT this evening. Still a lot of uncertainty.



Latest wind predictions and storm surge threat from the National Weather Service NWS Southern Region Tropical Webpage

[jztemple2]

His eyes follow you wherever you go...

[Unagi]

That is crazy - possibly great than 9 feet above ground storm surge in Tampa.

[jztemple2]

Big article today from Yale Climate Connections, Hurricane Ian poses serious risks to Florida Gulf Coast

Rapidly strengthening on Monday, Hurricane Ian is on track to slam into western Cuba early Tuesday morning, most likely as a major hurricane, before taking a complex and potentially devastating course along the Florida Gulf Coast. Whether or not Ian comes ashore on Florida’s west coast, the Tampa Bay area – which has not seen a major hurricane in more than a century – is facing one of its most dangerous hurricane threats in decades. People along Florida’s west coast need to take Ian with the utmost seriousness and consult local authorities for evacuation orders that could be extended quickly based on Ian’s progress.

[jztemple2]

Hello night owls! I couldn't sleep either . The 06z/2am EDT models are out but they aren't worth posting as there is still a lot of uncertainty.

We were talking before about Sanibel Island. Here's the latest storm surge map and it looks bad. From >6 to >9 feet of surge.

[jztemple2]

Sleep? Who needs sleep? The 12z/8am EDT model runs. We still don't like the blue lines. We do, however, like the pink line. Go pink!




The NHC is still going with the landfall directly on Tampa-St Pete for their path, but the cone is really what you need to watch over the next twelve hours.

[Unagi]

We were talking before about Sanibel Island. Here's the latest storm surge map and it looks bad. From >6 to >9 feet of surge.

So, is it correct to say: "Sanibel and Captiva will be under 6+ feet of seawater"?

[jztemple2]

So, is it correct to say: "Sanibel and Captiva will be under 6+ feet of seawater"?

Yes, my understanding of the storm surge charts is that it represents the water level above ground level, not above sea level.

Very sad for those places. I'm still hoping for a bizarre last minute swing to the west.

[LawBeefaroni]

So, is it correct to say: "Sanibel and Captiva will be under 6+ feet of seawater"?

Yes, my understanding of the storm surge charts is that it represents the water level above ground level, not above sea level.

And for Sanibel that is nearly the same thing anyway.

http://www.visitsanibelisland.com/facts ... sland.html

Average Elevation – 4 feet above sea level

Maximum Elevation – 13 feet above sea level

[Unagi]

Right.

I guess my main point of clarification was that the map has the topography of the land ‘built in’.
So, for instance it’s not that the surge will be lower in the few yellow areas , those are just the places that will only be about 3 feet submerged… the high ground.

[naednek]

I have to ask... Is it going to be near Maro Largo?

[Unagi]

It's nearly the same exact latitude - but Mar a Lago is on the other side of Florida. Outside the cone and off in the Tropical Storm watch zone.

[jztemple2]

The 2pm EDT models have shown a define shift to the east, which is good news for Tampa-St Pete, but sucks for me since they are upping the expected winds here from tropical storm to hurricane strength.


The intensity model is all over the place, dependent on where Ian comes ashore.


Latest wind strength forecast:

[Unagi]

Go pink!

Damn. Looks like pink is out.

[jztemple2]

From Yale Climate Connections, a couple of hours ago:

The good news: the recent shift in model guidance toward a landfall farther to the south decreases the odds that Tampa Bay will see a landfall to its north. If the center of Ian comes ashore to the south of Tampa Bay, the counter-clockwise circulation of the storm will blow offshore, pushing water out of the bay. In this scenario, Tampa Bay would avoid a worst-case storm surge scenario where the powerful right-front quadrant winds drive a destructive 5 – 10-foot surge into the bay. However, once Ian moves northward over the Florida Peninsula to a point north of Tampa Bay’s latitude, the circulation of the hurricane will begin piling water into the bay, resulting in a significant storm surge that will last through multiple high tide cycles late Thursday and into Friday. As of 1 p.m. EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center had reduced itsstorm surge forecast for Tampa Bay to 4 – 7 feet.

The bad news: a large stretch of heavily developed Florida coast, from Sarasota to Fort Myers, will potentially receive a highly destructive storm surge from the right-front quadrant of a slow-moving major hurricane. One area of most concern at present is Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte, which lie on Charlotte Harbor. This portion of the coast is forecast to receive 8 – 12 feet of storm surge. Unfortunately, the two rivers flowing into Charlotte Harbor, the Peace and Myakka, are already at minor flood stage from heavy rains earlier in the month. The heavy rains from Ian will increase the flooding of these rivers, causing a compound flood event in Charlotte Harbor that will boost the storm surge damage to Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte.

Storm surge flooding this week will be augmented by some of the highest tides of the month, the “king tides,” occurring because of the new moon on Sunday. Tidal range between high and low tide is about 2 – 2.5 feet at Tampa, and the highest tides this week are between 3 – 5 a.m. EDT Wednesday through Saturday. At Fort Myers, the tidal range is just over one foot this week, so the timing of Ian’s surge with respect to the tidal cycle is less important than for Tampa Bay.

Track forecast for Ian: Small angles make big differences

Ian is expected to continue on a general northward track through this week, pulled northward by an upper-level storm system now departing the eastern United States. However, there’s been a rightward shift in the forecasts of the angle of that northward track over the past 24 hours, and this shift has big implications for Ian’s impacts. Because Ian is approaching the coast at such a sharp angle, a relatively small shift to the left or right in Ian’s track can push the landfall location dozens of miles northward or southward along the coast, which in turn can alter the storm-surge potential and other impacts. Any remaining meteorological uncertainty in where Ian will track is only made worse by the unavoidable confluence of storm path and coastline geography. As a result, residents throughout a large swath of coastal southwest Florida must be ready to act quickly in response to the latest warnings and official evacuation notices on Ian. Although landfall has grown increasingly likely to occur from Tampa southward, the lower-probability outcome for Tampa Bay – a landfall just north of the area – cannot yet be completely ruled out.

Steering currents are now weakening for Ian. The hurricane crossed Cuba with a forward speed of 12 mph, but that speed slowed to 10 mph as it emerged from the coast of Cuba. Ian is expected to slow to about 5 mph by Wednesday afternoon. This very slow motion will allow Ian to pile up a large and damaging storm surge along the west coast of Florida. This surge will last through multiple high-tide cycles, allowing it to penetrate far inland up narrow creeks and estuaries. Moreover, the slow motion of Ian near the coast will allow the storm to dump prodigious amounts of rainfall, and subject the coast to an extended period of battering winds, increasing the wind damage.

[Unagi]

A westward-facing beach-side restaurant on Captiva, The Mucky Duck, has a webcam that will be up for as long as it can be.

https://www.muckyduck.com/beach-cam/

it's just a bit windy and gray skies right now.

[jztemple2]

A westward-facing beach-side restaurant on Captiva, The Mucky Duck, has a webcam that will be up for as long as it can be.

https://www.muckyduck.com/beach-cam/

it's just a bit windy and gray skies right now.

A bit off-topic, but the last time we went to Sanibel we ate at the George and Wendy’s Sanibel Seafood Grille. We really liked it and the folks were great. Sadly I don't think they are going to do too well, even though they are almost a mile from the Gulf.

[msteelers]

We’re only expecting tropical storm force winds here, but my wife’s office will be closed the next two days which is surprising. They have been telling people they will stay open, and now have to call a bunch of clients and say “psych! We’re closed.”

[jztemple2]

Well, here in Brevard county we were splitting the difference between tropical storm and hurricane force winds, but now...



Normally we'd have been thinking about evacuating if we were potentially going to lose power, but dealing with my post-surgery issues we're just going to take our chances here. Perhaps there's a chance for one last wobble west. I'm really surprised that for a storm coming ashore around Venice FL, that we are talking about hurricane force winds along so much of the east Florida coast.

[jztemple2]

8pm EDT model run. We're still voting for Pink, but there is a lot of consensus on the path now.


This might be useful for folks. Probability of seeing hurricane force winds. we're in the 20-30% bracket.

[em2nought]

Sorta glad I'm planning to stay a Florida citizen, but not live in Florida too much longer. Now where did i put those Plylox? Loaned out one window board after the hail storm and it came back without the Plylox. I'm pretty sure last time I saw the package I grabbed it to put in a "good" spot. LOL

[msteelers]

I’m not sure if this link will work, but we’ve gotten over 4 inches of rain and my swale has turned into a river.

https://share.icloud.com/photos/0fc0pAb ... Z_ZsROwdrQ

[The Meal]

Best luck, Fla OO squad.

[jztemple2]

I’m not sure if this link will work, but we’ve gotten over 4 inches of rain and my swale has turned into a river.

https://share.icloud.com/photos/0fc0pAb ... Z_ZsROwdrQ

Your link worked, that's a lot water. Looks swale though . Looking at the radar it looks like you might be rain free for awhile, at least till the next band hits.


First of all, this is a sucky way to spend my birthday, dealing with hemorrhoids, incontinence and a hurricane, in that order . However, I can deal with all of them. We've had light rain all through the night but the wind still isn't too significant. The winds aren't expected to pick up till this afternoon, with the worse winds overnight. Why is it always worse at night, ruining my sleep?

My wife, being the person she is, has decided to go shopping . I offered to go but she's very independent and wants to do it on her own. She's a combination of Pollyanna and Joan of Arc, which is frustrating at times but on the other hand I admire her spirit.

As might be expected, now that the storm is actually here, all the models finally agree.

[jztemple2]

Our local Spectrum channel has just noted that Ian's wind speed was just under Cat V and the eye is almost fifty miles across. JIm Cantore is reporting from Punta Gorda FL, standing at a riverside park and holding his hand about the height of his head to show how deep the storm surge is going to be

[Unagi]

This is the only Sanibel/Captive Beach cam that I can find that is still broadcasting. It sometimes times-out, but then it will kick back in and show some images...
(Although its clock is totally set wrong)

Very windy, but so far - at least at the camera angle, the storm surge hasn't yet hit.

https://westwindislandresort.com/beach-cam/

[jztemple2]

Years ago there used to be a joke that you know you're going to have a bad day when your secretary comes in and says that Dan Rather is waiting to interview you. Now it's that Jim Cantore is setting up to do a live report from your front yard.

[naednek]

It's nearly the same exact latitude - but Mar a Lago is on the other side of Florida. Outside the cone and off in the Tropical Storm watch zone.

bummer

[Unagi]

https://westwindislandresort.com/beach-cam/

Update: radio silence at West Wind Island Resort

Strikes me that the resort is appropriately named today.


Also, apparently, a lot of these Beach Webcams are powered by solar - and they may just be out of juice.

[jztemple2]

It's getting breezier here and the rain is somewhat heavier. I don't think rain is going to be that much of an issue for us, since while the accumulation will be significant, the rate of rain per hour isn't expected to be anywhere near what we'd see in one of our summer thunderstorms that get stuck overhead. There are numerous drainage canals in our area and the county is very aggressive in keeping them clear. Of course I could be wrong

I just noticed that my wife, the eternal optimist, has put some outgoing mail in the box on the street. Well, "Neither snow nor rain..."

[msteelers]

First of all, this is a sucky way to spend my birthday,

Happy birthday! Everyone in Central Florida took the rest of the week off to help you celebrate.

[Unagi]

Some good live video here on Sanibel street intersections.

https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-c ... CapChamber


Some pretty huge winds right now. Looks like the cameras themselves could be tossed off their poles

The Lindgren and East Gulf intersection (West view) is showing flooding/storm surge

The rest still currently looks above water.

[Unagi]

The Lindgren and East Gulf intersection (West view) is showing flooding/storm surge

Actually, it's gone up quite a bit in the short time I've been watching. It's odd that it's the only place - must be a low spot.

[Skinypupy]

Just saw the Waffle Houses in the storm's path have all closed.

Oh shit.

[jztemple2]

Just saw the Waffle Houses in the storm's path have all closed.

Oh shit.

I told you, it's my birthday, everyone is celebrating

Mind you, it's going to be tough on the parade floats, especially the balloons.

[TheMix]

I forget... is this the "whole month birthday celebration"? Or is today the specific day? Happy Birthday, if the latter. And hope the weather cooperates a bit for you.

[Kurth]

The view from this surveillance cam on the Sunshine Skyway Bridge in Tampa is something. I wouldn't want to be on that bridge, and definitely not in that water.

Fingers crossed for all the FL OO folks, and also for my family in Jacksonville. It sounds like they're going to get walloped. Maybe not hurricane strength by the time it gets to Northeastern FL, but pretty intense tropical storm impacts.

[jztemple2]

I forget... is this the "whole month birthday celebration"? Or is today the specific day? Happy Birthday, if the latter. And hope the weather cooperates a bit for you.

Thank you, today is my actual birthday, but we do celebrate all month

Weather here still not bad, rain bands has finished with us for now. They have upgraded us from Tropical Storm Warning to Hurricane Warning