Hurricanes, Droughts and other Significant Weather 2022

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 12:23 pm

https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-c ... CapChamber

Periwinkle and Casa Ybel intersection getting a surge right this second, I just watched it go 2 feet under in a minute

jztemple2 · Post by **jztemple2** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 12:30 pm

Unagi wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 12:23 pm https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-c ... CapChamber

Periwinkle and Casa Ybel intersection getting a surge right this second, I just watched it go 2 feet under in a minute

Seems like most of the cameras are now out

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:11 pm

yeah, the last one has finally given up. One of them I was watching actually blew loose and was just pointing down (the pole was still up , because the camera facing the other way was still up for a few minutes more).

But they are all off now.

I'd say I was looking at an area that was fairly high ground (as other areas were flooding way before) - but this one was at about 3ft+ underwater when it all turned off.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:11 pm

Thinking of all the Floridian OOers impacted by this, and hoping you and your families stay safe. Please keep us updated as best you can.

jztemple2 · Post by **jztemple2** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:29 pm

Thanks for your thoughts

It is now raining hard here and blowing quite a bit. The pool, which was about 3-4 inches below the lip, is now full. And it's going to be like this for the next twenty-four hours

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:34 pm

Jesus.

This was from 5 hours ago...I hope it's wrong.

jztemple2 · Post by **jztemple2** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:46 pm

The center of the eye of Ian looks like it is coming ashore right over Captiva Island, which about 160 miles away from us. We could still use a wobble to the left for the storm, just to give us a bit more distance from the highest winds.

Looking at this Google Maps tracking of Ian, with it's projected path, it looks like the center of Ian will make it's closest approach (25 miles!) to us at about 2pm tomorrow. So maybe 36 hours more of bad weather

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:28 pm

Unreal.

*RARE* first person view of storm surge. This camera is 6 feet off the ground on Estero Blvd in Fort Myers Beach, FL. Not sure how much longer it keeps working.

Again, stay safe FL OOers. I don't know if it's too late to leave, but every emergency management person I follow is saying if you can and you're in an area that is going to be impacted, do so.

jztemple2 · Post by **jztemple2** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:42 pm

Luckily I'm not in an area that needs to evacuate. We do have that as a back-up plan after the storm if we lose power or the septic system backs up

Good gosh, hard to be believe I turned sixty-nine today

Even my flamingos are getting wet

The street out front is partially flooded. And thirty-sixty more hours of this

jztemple2 · Post by **jztemple2** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:48 pm

jztemple2 · Post by **jztemple2** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:58 pm

This is good

news from our county emergency management center.

Brevard County Emergency Management
9/28/22 11:45 am: There are no evacuations planned for Hurricane Ian at this time.

9/28/22 1:45 pm: To clarify: While Brevard has gone under a Hurricane Warning, there have been no significant changes to our expected impacts, and heavy, flooding rain remains our main concern.

This was taken in Naples, FL about an hour ago.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:31 pm

Looks more like Venice than Naples.

jztemple2 · Post by **jztemple2** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:49 pm

The Meal wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:31 pm Looks more like Venice than Naples.

Venice is also getting hammered by Ian... you were talking about Venice FL, right?

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:54 pm

Maybe it’s just me, the last 30 minutes or so…. but it seems to be moving more eastward than really any of the models you shared had predicted

Well , they do have their cone. So I suppose it’s still within the range of the predictions.

Edit: maybe I take it back. Seems to be more north now.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:12 pm

Stay safe, OO Floridians!

jztemple2 · Post by **jztemple2** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:12 pm

Unagi wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:54 pm Maybe it’s just me, the last 30 minutes or so…. but it seems to be moving more eastward than really any of the models you shared had predicted

Well , they do have their cone. So I suppose it’s still within the range of the predictions.

It could be a wobble or a shift in the path.

Hurricanes do wobble in their paths. I remember when Mathew was coming up the east coast of Florida, it did a wobble just before it reached us, moving about 30 miles east of the main predicted path. Probably saved us getting more severe damage. For those who don't know, hurricanes don't move by themselves. They are just a whirlpool in the atmosphere. Atmospheric features like highs, lows and fronts move the whirlpool.

And of course as you mention, there is still a cone of movement. The below image is from the 2pm EDT model runs. There's still a chance the eye could pass right over us about midday tomorrow.

Daveman · Post by **Daveman** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:25 pm

Hope everyone is staying safe! Sanibel has been our go-to vacation destination for 25 years (my wife's family even longer) so it's been awful seeing the news so far.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:02 pm

Daveman wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:25 pm Hope everyone is staying safe! Sanibel has been our go-to vacation destination for 25 years (my wife's family even longer) so it's been awful seeing the news so far.

Yeah, I'm like your wife, I imagine. My parents took the family probably a dozen times in my youth... Starting back in like 77. We met the original owner of The Mucky Duck (and their dog, PJ). Since then, I've taken my family and done 'two family' vacations with my sister's family nearly as many times.

WYBaugh · Post by **WYBaugh** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:12 pm

My son lives in Naples now and we went to Ft Myers Beach for vacation this summer. Sad seeing Estero Blvd completely under water.

jztemple2 · Post by **jztemple2** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:16 pm

We've been to Sanibel and Captiva several times... it will be sad if places like Ding Darling are no more

This is weird, It stopped raining. A look at the radar; we are just above the I-95 shield logo near the center of the screen. The rain is swirling around the center of circulation of Ian but as it comes closer to us the wind is come less from over the ocean so it's not picking up as much moisture. It will start raining again sometime tonight, but it would be nice to be dry for awhile so the drains and canals can catch up.

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:35 pm

Our swale is back to normal levels. I saw Facebook posts of local intersections completely underwater, but we dodged a major bullet.

Most of my coworkers live in the Orlando area. A lot of them have power flickering now. I might be the only one working tomorrow!

jztemple2 · Post by **jztemple2** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:42 pm

em2nought wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:07 pm I'm in Highlands County in Central Florida an hour below Orlando.

I noticed on the Ian projected path that it will be going over Highland Park about 2am tomorrow morning. Stay safe!

We've had no rain for over two hours and barely any wind. Fingers crossed but I think we might have seen the heaviest rain from the storm already. As the center gets closer the winds will be crossing a lot of land before hitting us, making our side of the storm drier. Or at least that's what I'm telling myself because the septic is starting to back up a little

em2nought · Post by **em2nought** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:44 pm

My lights have started to flicker. Just finished cooking something out of the freezer. Wind has finally become noticeable at 6 PM. Maybe I'll shave yet so i'll be a bit cooler while the power is out. I'm on the same grid as the hospital so I don't imagine too long without power just like during Irma. Guess I'll fill up the bath tub with water for flushing just in case. They left dumpster with debris from the roof all around our complex. They were supposed to remove them but they just crunched the stuff down with a big forklift instead. I'm going to be really upset if my vehicles gets pelted by that debris since I don't have comprehensive coverage. Not to self home insurance needs tripled now that value has, maybe I should have thought about that last year. Lake is just about to go over the dock.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:44 pm

A friend just texted me that he has heard that the Sanibel Lighthouse is gone.

he added "supposedly"

WYBaugh · Post by **WYBaugh** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:52 pm

em2nought wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:44 pm My lights have started to flicker. Just finished cooking something out of the freezer. Wind has finally become noticeable at 6 PM. Maybe I'll shave yet so i'll be a bit cooler while the power is out. I'm on the same grid as the hospital so I don't imagine too long without power just like during Irma. Guess I'll fill up the bath tub with water for flushing just in case. They left dumpster with debris from the roof all around our complex. They were supposed to remove them but they just crunched the stuff down with a big forklift instead. I'm going to be really upset if my vehicles gets pelted by that debris since I don't have comprehensive coverage. Not to self home insurance needs tripled now that value has, maybe I should have thought about that last year. Lake is just about to go over the dock.

Where do you live?

Alefroth · Post by **Alefroth** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:03 pm

Is it likely to be a hurricane still when it hits GA/SC?

WYBaugh · Post by **WYBaugh** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:42 pm

Alefroth wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:03 pm Is it likely to be a hurricane still when it hits GA/SC?

No, should be a tropical storm

jztemple2 · Post by **jztemple2** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:14 pm

Still nothing but light occasional! rain and light wind. Would be nice to stay this way, but probably not

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:26 pm

jztemple2 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:14 pm Still nothing but light occasional! rain and light wind. Would be nice to stay this way, but probably not

Fingers crossed, for you and all the other FlOOridians.

Also...

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:11 pm

Octavious, does your company have a Florida location?

jztemple2 · Post by **jztemple2** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:41 pm

jztemple2 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:14 pm Still nothing but light occasional! rain and light wind. Would be nice to stay this way, but probably not

And two hours later, still no significant rain, but the wind has picked up. And we don't need any more rain, the septic system is definitely backing up. Thankfully(?) we have a portable commode

. Reminder to self, start having the septic tank pumped out every August.

A quick walkabout outside has shown that even without any rain in five hours, the water level in the yard and street is almost still the same. Usually it would have mostly disappeared by now. So the ground is saturated

The below is from Tropical Tidbits and is timed at 00z/8pm EDT. The last line and the image show that 64 knot (74 mph) radius. That's where the wind drops from hurricane strength to tropical storm strength. One nautical mile is equal to 1.15 statute miles.

So if you use your handy-dandy Google Maps Ian Tracker, you can figure out who's still getting hurricane force winds and who's getting tropical storm force winds.

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:11 pm

It’s windy where I’m at, but not crazy. I think sustained is just under tropical storm levels, with gusts probably into tropical storm range.

jztemple2 · Post by **jztemple2** » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:29 pm

msteelers wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:11 pm It’s windy where I’m at, but not crazy. I think sustained is just under tropical storm levels, with gusts probably into tropical storm range.

Well, the 11pm update is out and guess who has two thumbs and is going to have Ian come right over his house? Yup, me

You can check the updated Google Maps Ian Tracker. The eye, what there is of it, will be passing right over us about 9am. According to the NHC, at that time the winds will be max sustained 65mph, gusts to 75mph. And no doubt lots of rain. Which has just started up again.

I'm taking a couple of sleeping pills. I asked my wife to call me when the eye comes by. Oddly, while I've never been in the eye of a hurricane, she has, twice. Both in the 1960s. I just want the power to stay on, I can deal with the septic. And if it comes to it, we can fire up the minivan, turn on the a/c, lay down the seats in the back and kip out there.

jztemple2 · Post by **jztemple2** » Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:26 am

Just past 1am EDT and of course I can't sleep

. The rain is coming down quite heavy now and the flooding in the street and my yard is pretty awesome. My next door neighbor, who moved here a few years ago, asked if I had ever seen anything like this. I've been in this house 38 years and nope, I've never seen it so bad. I'd post some pics but they wouldn't show too much. Maybe in the morning.

The good(?) news is that the future radar predictions show that the heavy rain ought to be over in the next four hours. After that we might see the occasional rain band zip through, but the eye of Ian will have collapsed by then and so there won't be the issue with eye walls and stuff. But they are predicting heavy rain to continue not that far north from us, so if the path shifts again we might be getting more rain after all.

The image below is from the latest Weather Underground forecast. Check out the sudden drop in wind speed and rain percentage as the eye (or what's left of the eye) passes over us in the morning. Also check out the accumulated precipitation line (just above the wind graph). The rain rate doesn't seem to be all that heavy for the rest of the night. Good

jztemple2 · Post by **jztemple2** » Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:33 am

Oh, also forgot to post this. It's from the Florida Power & Light website, showing outages. Brevard County has by far the greatest number of FP&L customers. About one in ten don't have power right now. They had better keep our power on, especially since we're within five miles of their powerplant and also the powerplant of Duke Energy

Brevard County

We're responding to Ian and are unable to provide a restoration estimate at this time. Please know we will continue to restore outages, including in-between the storm's weather bands as long as it is safe to do so. We appreciate your patience. Please stay safe.

Total Customers in County: 330,380
Total Customers Out: 31,580
Last Updated: 09/29/2022 01:00 AM

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Thu Sep 29, 2022 3:11 am

I woke up sweating. Turns out we lost power.

We’ve been in this home for multiple hurricanes now that brought us much worse conditions than Ian, but this is the first time we’ve been without power for any real length of time.

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Thu Sep 29, 2022 3:13 am

FPL claims there are 47,000 homes without power in my county.

I’m really surprised by that.

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:32 am

We got more wind than I was expecting. We lost power around midnight, and lost a tree in the backyard. Our fence gate was also busted. And we were on the outskirts. Hopefully everyone is doing alright.

Daveman · Post by **Daveman** » Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:23 am

Seems a lot of the roadway leading up to the Sanibel causeway (before the toll booth) is badly buckled/warped... and a 50' section of the causeway bridge collapsed.

jztemple2 · Post by **jztemple2** » Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:27 am

msteelers wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 3:13 am FPL claims there are 47,000 homes without power in my county.

I’m really surprised by that.

We never lost power or cable or internet. Right now our county:

Total Customers in County: 330,380
Total Customers Out: 58,640
Last Updated: 09/29/2022 09:00 AM

msteelers wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:32 am We got more wind than I was expecting. We lost power around midnight, and lost a tree in the backyard. Our fence gate was also busted. And we were on the outskirts. Hopefully everyone is doing alright.

I finally went to sleep about 2am when the pills finally kicked in. Was up several times but never heard much rain or wind. Got up about 8:30am and in the past hour it's been calm outside, but that's because the eye is passing over us. It's still cloudy so there's nothing special about it. I did an inspection and except for all the water

there appears to be no damage.

I now have a pond in the side yard.

Current radar. Again, our house is right above that I-95 shield logo between Palm Bay and Titusville.