The 2024 S**t Show

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Jaymann
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The 2024 S**t Show

Post by Jaymann »

So consider for a moment the following very likely scenario:

Biden (or another Democratic nominee) wins the presidential election.

Republicans reject the result in Congress and proclaim Florida Man (or another Republican nominee) to be the winner.

What will Biden do?

Who would the military support?

Who would be sworn in the following January?

If the loser of the election is instated, how will the winner respond?
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by Smoove_B »

I'm kinda hoping we start hanging people between now and then to help mitigate the risk of this happening.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by Blackhawk »

I wonder how many hundreds of pages this thread will get to...
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by hepcat »

Mega threads…ugh
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by Holman »

Presumably this is the "Too Early to Think about 2xxx" branded thread?

I imagine the name will change eventually.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by Kraken »

Unless Biden gets out of the way in time for the Dems to find a new champion, the Republican will win outright (unless it's trump, and maybe even then).
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by El Guapo »

Kraken wrote: Tue Jun 14, 2022 9:15 pm Unless Biden gets out of the way in time for the Dems to find a new champion, the Republican will win outright (unless it's trump, and maybe even then).
Incumbency is a powerful thing, man. Even if Biden's approval rating remains low going into 2024, the Democrats are almost certainly better off with Biden as their candidate then with whoever would emerge from an open contested primary.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by YellowKing »

As bad as things are, I still think it's a highly unlikely scenario. I'm not saying the Republicans wouldn't *try* it, but I'm highly skeptical about their chances of succeeding. Unless you have a truly close, disputable election (ala 2000), I think the attempt would ultimately fail at the judicial level again.

Even if Congress somehow declared reality to be incorrect, I think enough people raise enough hell that this gets thrown back into the courts. And that's where we would hope common sense prevails. And yes I know the GOP has been stacking the courts, etc. But conservative judge doesn't automatically mean "deny reality." It would take a lot of bad actors in a lot of places to pull it off. Not at all impossible, but I don't deem it likely.

I'm 1000x more concerned that Republicans are going to legitimately win 2024 than I am that they're going to lose and pull off a coup.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by El Guapo »

Jaymann wrote: Tue Jun 14, 2022 3:59 pm So consider for a moment the following very likely scenario:

Biden (or another Democratic nominee) wins the presidential election.

Republicans reject the result in Congress and proclaim Florida Man (or another Republican nominee) to be the winner.

What will Biden do?

Who would the military support?

Who would be sworn in the following January?

If the loser of the election is instated, how will the winner respond?
If the GOP is able to pull off a fully legal coup (e.g., by rejecting Biden delegates in Congress or by altering the result at the state level), then there would likely be legal challenges. These challenges probably fail (e.g., SCOTUS rules that this is all legal and that Trump or DeSantis or whomever is the winner). Then (especially if the mainstream media is reporting that Biden won) then there are probably mass protests. I think in this scenario that Trump / GOP candidate likely gets sworn in, but this would be a pretty unprecedented scenario so it's hard to say with certainty.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by El Guapo »

YellowKing wrote: Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:47 pm As bad as things are, I still think it's a highly unlikely scenario. I'm not saying the Republicans wouldn't *try* it, but I'm highly skeptical about their chances of succeeding. Unless you have a truly close, disputable election (ala 2000), I think the attempt would ultimately fail at the judicial level again.

Even if Congress somehow declared reality to be incorrect, I think enough people raise enough hell that this gets thrown back into the courts. And that's where we would hope common sense prevails. And yes I know the GOP has been stacking the courts, etc. But conservative judge doesn't automatically mean "deny reality." It would take a lot of bad actors in a lot of places to pull it off. Not at all impossible, but I don't deem it likely.

I'm 1000x more concerned that Republicans are going to legitimately win 2024 than I am that they're going to lose and pull off a coup.
I think you're too optimistic on the court front. Trump's 2020 legal challenges failed mostly because they relied on bullshit factual assertions that lacked any evidentiary support whatsoever (and they didn't have the right people in place at the state level to impact the certification process). But if the GOP does their homework and follows legal procedures, then it's really hard for me to see a 6-3 majority GOP SCOTUS intervening to stop it. Like if Congress voted not to accept Biden delegates from a couple key states, I think the Supreme Court majority would be more than happy to write a dry procedural opinion that said "Hey, Congress has the power to vote to reject delegates, and they exercised that power here, and it's not for us to second guess them".
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by Kraken »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:38 pm
Kraken wrote: Tue Jun 14, 2022 9:15 pm Unless Biden gets out of the way in time for the Dems to find a new champion, the Republican will win outright (unless it's trump, and maybe even then).
Incumbency is a powerful thing, man. Even if Biden's approval rating remains low going into 2024, the Democrats are almost certainly better off with Biden as their candidate then with whoever would emerge from an open contested primary.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by LordMortis »

Kraken wrote: Tue Jun 14, 2022 9:15 pm Unless Biden gets out of the way in time for the Dems to find a new champion, the Republican will win outright (unless it's trump, and maybe even then).
Unless things change dramatically, I have very little faith the GOP will lose. In the miasma of hate, willful ignorance, misinformation, and my world needs to seem more rosy than it did yesterday, too many aren't seeing the autocratic threat, the power grab and hold, the corruption. They only see energy prices (not just gas any more) and food prices which are easy to see. I will say as much as it is not the fault of the blue and piper needs to be paid for that last 10+ years and specifically that last 2 and we need to watch Ukraine, the blue guys are doing a horrible job of communicating.

I don't see the Dems winning a fair 2024 at this point and my faith is very low that fair elections in my neck of the woods done after that. The only solace I can take is I'm white guy with a bit of savings.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by LawBeefaroni »

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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by Unagi »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:38 pm
Kraken wrote: Tue Jun 14, 2022 9:15 pm Unless Biden gets out of the way in time for the Dems to find a new champion, the Republican will win outright (unless it's trump, and maybe even then).
Incumbency is a powerful thing, man. Even if Biden's approval rating remains low going into 2024, the Democrats are almost certainly better off with Biden as their candidate then with whoever would emerge from an open contested primary.
Not if people genuinely feel he may not make it a full two terms.

I mean , personally there isn’t a situation I would support any republican candidate. And I myself will most certainly vote. The biggest concern is that he doesn’t inspire anyone to get out their vote, and that the Unites States of Apathy just sorta forgets to re-elect him.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by Grifman »

YellowKing wrote: Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:47 pm As bad as things are, I still think it's a highly unlikely scenario. I'm not saying the Republicans wouldn't *try* it, but I'm highly skeptical about their chances of succeeding. Unless you have a truly close, disputable election (ala 2000), I think the attempt would ultimately fail at the judicial level again.

Even if Congress somehow declared reality to be incorrect, I think enough people raise enough hell that this gets thrown back into the courts. And that's where we would hope common sense prevails. And yes I know the GOP has been stacking the courts, etc. But conservative judge doesn't automatically mean "deny reality." It would take a lot of bad actors in a lot of places to pull it off. Not at all impossible, but I don't deem it likely.

I'm 1000x more concerned that Republicans are going to legitimately win 2024 than I am that they're going to lose and pull off a coup.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by hepcat »

Dominion, Smartmatic...they all need to keep suing the hell out of these people. Demand they prove their allegations in public and in courts. When they can't defend their conspiracy theories, they should be financially ruined and paraded in public as examples of what happens when you try to destroy democracy through lies.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Grifman wrote: Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:45 am
YellowKing wrote: Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:47 pm As bad as things are, I still think it's a highly unlikely scenario. I'm not saying the Republicans wouldn't *try* it, but I'm highly skeptical about their chances of succeeding. Unless you have a truly close, disputable election (ala 2000), I think the attempt would ultimately fail at the judicial level again.

Even if Congress somehow declared reality to be incorrect, I think enough people raise enough hell that this gets thrown back into the courts. And that's where we would hope common sense prevails. And yes I know the GOP has been stacking the courts, etc. But conservative judge doesn't automatically mean "deny reality." It would take a lot of bad actors in a lot of places to pull it off. Not at all impossible, but I don't deem it likely.

I'm 1000x more concerned that Republicans are going to legitimately win 2024 than I am that they're going to lose and pull off a coup.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by Smoove_B »

Is it going to be MAGA or Q that takes over in 2024? I can't keep up anymore.


Of the 5 states that probably matter most here for 2024 (PA, MI, AZ, GA, NV), pro-"Big Lie" whack jobs are 3-1 and might win the 4th
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by coopasonic »

Holman wrote: Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:56 pm Presumably this is the "Too Early to Think about 2xxx" branded thread?

I imagine the name will change eventually.
I like the name, though there is some wiggle room with the asterisks.
The 2024 Sort Show? Is this about how they sort the ballots?
The 2024 Spat Show? Are the candidates going to get into a fight?
The 2024 Smut Show? I'll be watching!
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The list goes on and on.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by YellowKing »

Yeah I admit I could be overly optimistic, and probably am, and I'm well aware of the efforts to get low level officials in place and ready. But it hasn't happened yet, and until it does I'm not prepared to see it as a certainty. I still think the bigger threat is that the GOP wins the election legitimately.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by Jaymann »

YellowKing wrote: Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:44 am Yeah I admit I could be overly optimistic, and probably am, and I'm well aware of the efforts to get low level officials in place and ready. But it hasn't happened yet, and until it does I'm not prepared to see it as a certainty. I still think the bigger threat is that the GOP wins the election legitimately.
No doubt that is an existential threat. But bigger than a legal coup? I would have to differ on that.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by YellowKing »

Yeah bad wording. I meant "bigger likelihood." Not that a legitimate win was a larger danger to the country.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by Little Raven »

I'm on Team YK here. Frankly, right now I find the thought of Republicans attempting to steal the 2024 election to be downright reassuring, because that scenario means they didn't just win it outright.

I'm honestly having a hard time wrapping my head around just how dire how quickly the situation appears to be getting for Democrats. Here in Texas, Hispanics seem to be leaving the Democratic party IN DROVES. If this pattern holds true across the nation, the Democrats are in deep, DEEP trouble. We Democrats have pinned a great deal of our hopes on the idea that as America becomes a minority-majority nation, the Republicans will find themselves shut out of power. If we can't hold onto the Hispanic vote though.....then it could easily be Democrats painting themselves into an ideological corner.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by Holman »

Holman wrote: Wed Jun 15, 2022 7:41 pm Maybe we need to bow to the times and go with a media celebrity who represents the American values we support.

Tom Hanks?
I posted this non-seriously in the "21st Century GOP" thread, but I'm starting to think that now it's quite possibly the way to go.

Dems nominating Hanks isn't like the GOP nominating Trump or Kid Rock. Tom Hanks is obviously intelligent, thoughtful, and committed to values beyond just his ego. He has been politically active for years (strong Dem supporter), and his most important roles (many of which he has not only acted but also produced and funded) have presented a moral vision of the individual citizen as someone who takes risks and makes sacrifices in the service of a good cause.

Many career politicians these days are nothing but bad actors anyway. (Washington has long been described as "Hollywood for ugly people.") Would it be so wrong to consider an admired, well-intentioned, and thoughtful actor for the Dem nomination?

If this seems absurd, ask yourself whether a public figure like Tom Hanks is somehow less qualified for political leadership than grand-standers like Lindsey Graham, Rand Paul, or Ted Cruz (let alone MTG or Lauren Boebert).

Draft Tom Hanks!
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by Alefroth »

Run Tom Run!
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by YellowKing »

Good article on why to not toss Biden out of the running:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/16/opinions ... index.html

I tend to agree. It's far too early to make predictions about 2024 based on his approval ratings today.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by malchior »

YellowKing wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 5:55 pm Good article on why to not toss Biden out of the running:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/16/opinions ... index.html

I tend to agree. It's far too early to make predictions about 2024 based on his approval ratings today.
I agree it's too early. I'll say If Biden is anywhere near this level of disapproval in late 2023/2024 then this conversation has to be had. And there is a decent chance of that considering the fury he is about to face. Maybe he'll find some fight but let's be realistic. The man is extremely *old* and he looks it increasingly everyday.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by Kurth »

Two words: Charlie. Baker.

I'd take Baker hands down in a Baker v. Trump contest. We just need to convince the Dems to nominate a Republican!
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by Unagi »

Alefroth wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 5:36 pmRun Tom Run!
That's pretty good. :clap:
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by Unagi »

Holman wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 5:28 pm
Holman wrote: Wed Jun 15, 2022 7:41 pm Maybe we need to bow to the times and go with a media celebrity who represents the American values we support.

Tom Hanks?
I posted this non-seriously in the "21st Century GOP" thread, but I'm starting to think that now it's quite possibly the way to go.

Dems nominating Hanks isn't like the GOP nominating Trump or Kid Rock. Tom Hanks is obviously intelligent, thoughtful, and committed to values beyond just his ego. He has been politically active for years (strong Dem supporter), and his most important roles (many of which he has not only acted but also produced and funded) have presented a moral vision of the individual citizen as someone who takes risks and makes sacrifices in the service of a good cause.

Many career politicians these days are nothing but bad actors anyway. (Washington has long been described as "Hollywood for ugly people.") Would it be so wrong to consider an admired, well-intentioned, and thoughtful actor for the Dem nomination?

If this seems absurd, ask yourself whether a public figure like Tom Hanks is somehow less qualified for political leadership than grand-standers like Lindsey Graham, Rand Paul, or Ted Cruz (let alone MTG or Lauren Boebert).

Draft Tom Hanks!
I think the problem would be the 'Hollywood Elite' boogeyman - but if there is anyone that could shed that, perhaps it's Hanks.
Another problem is the most classic one: would Tom Hanks ever want to put his family through all of that. They say one of the biggest problems with getting good men to run for the office is because they are good men.

Personally - I'd be fine with it. I bet he would be pretty damn good at communicating.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by YellowKing »

The last thing we need as President is another person with zero political experience, no matter how likeable they are. I mean, my brother is smart AND hilarious but I wouldn't want him running my hospital. :D
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by El Guapo »

Kurth wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 6:39 pm Two words: Charlie. Baker.

I'd take Baker hands down in a Baker v. Trump contest. We just need to convince the Dems to nominate a Republican!
Oh yeah, nominating a Republican would go over incredibly well with the left wing of the party, and definitely wouldn't lead to an intra-party schism or a left wing third party candidate.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by El Guapo »

malchior wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 6:02 pm
YellowKing wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 5:55 pm Good article on why to not toss Biden out of the running:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/16/opinions ... index.html

I tend to agree. It's far too early to make predictions about 2024 based on his approval ratings today.
I agree it's too early. I'll say If Biden is anywhere near this level of disapproval in late 2023/2024 then this conversation has to be had. And there is a decent chance of that considering the fury he is about to face. Maybe he'll find some fight but let's be realistic. The man is extremely *old* and he looks it increasingly everyday.
What do you think the approval rating of a 2024 democratic nominee would be after they go through an open primary contest and start getting savaged by the GOP and GOP-friendly media?
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by malchior »

You'd hope better than 39-40% and not 80+ years old. I'm not saying the situation would be great. It's dire no matter what if Biden is our best shot anyway. He hasn't risen to the challenge.
Last edited by malchior on Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:27 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by LawBeefaroni »

coopasonic wrote: Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:16 am

I like the name, though there is some wiggle room with the asterisks.
The 2024 Sort Show? Is this about how they sort the ballots?
The 2024 Spat Show? Are the candidates going to get into a fight?
The 2024 Smut Show? I'll be watching!
Skit? Snot? Spit? Scat? Spot? Suit?

The list goes on and on.
https://shotshow.org/
The show is owned and sponsored by the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), and is the biggest event of the type in the world along with the IWA & OutdoorClassics ("IWA Nuremberg") held also annually in Nuremberg, Germany.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by El Guapo »

malchior wrote: Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:23 am You'd hope better than 39-40% and not 80+ years old. I'm not saying the situation would be great. It's dire no matter what if Biden is our best shot anyway. He hasn't risen to the challenge.
It would almost certainly be lower. First, the public would take Biden not running as an admission by the Democrats that his administration was a failure. But at the same time, whoever the new nominee is would be essentially be stuck running on that record, because they're, you know, still democrats. And "hey, our last president sucked, but you should pick someone who is of the same party, and who will probably do most of the same things, but maybe somewhat better" is not the most winning of messages. Plus any replacement nominee is probably being drawn from the pool of people who couldn't beat Biden (when he was also old!) last time, plus they have to go through the gamut again of pleasing activists who disproportionately dominate the primary process.

I mean, not that it couldn't work, but it's almost certainly the case that Biden will be the best option even if his approval rating remains low.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by Unagi »

YellowKing wrote: Fri Jun 17, 2022 8:22 am The last thing we need as President is another person with zero political experience, no matter how likeable they are. I mean, my brother is smart AND hilarious but I wouldn't want him running my hospital. :D
That is not at all what the problem with Trump was.

An intelligent man with little political experience could do fine when they understand how to utilize and harness the help of an administration and good advisors that are not just ‘yes’ men.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by Jaymann »

El Guapo wrote: Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:59 am
malchior wrote: Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:23 am You'd hope better than 39-40% and not 80+ years old. I'm not saying the situation would be great. It's dire no matter what if Biden is our best shot anyway. He hasn't risen to the challenge.
It would almost certainly be lower. First, the public would take Biden not running as an admission by the Democrats that his administration was a failure. But at the same time, whoever the new nominee is would be essentially be stuck running on that record, because they're, you know, still democrats. And "hey, our last president sucked, but you should pick someone who is of the same party, and who will probably do most of the same things, but maybe somewhat better" is not the most winning of messages.
Agree completely. That's why some non-politician out of (literally) left field might be more viable going up against an ignorant, racist grifter.
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:59 am
malchior wrote: Fri Jun 17, 2022 9:23 am You'd hope better than 39-40% and not 80+ years old. I'm not saying the situation would be great. It's dire no matter what if Biden is our best shot anyway. He hasn't risen to the challenge.
It would almost certainly be lower. First, the public would take Biden not running as an admission by the Democrats that his administration was a failure. But at the same time, whoever the new nominee is would be essentially be stuck running on that record, because they're, you know, still democrats. And "hey, our last president sucked, but you should pick someone who is of the same party, and who will probably do most of the same things, but maybe somewhat better" is not the most winning of messages.
Yeah - you'd need the right change candidate. You'd need superior strategy. And you'd need a lot of luck. All of which the Democratic party only seems to summon out once a generation. I said it'd be dire and agree with all the problems above but assuming it'd be lower is a big assumption.
Plus any replacement nominee is probably being drawn from the pool of people who couldn't beat Biden (when he was also old!) last time, plus they have to go through the gamut again of pleasing activists who disproportionately dominate the primary process.
Yep - totally valid problems.
I mean, not that it couldn't work, but it's almost certainly the case that Biden will be the best option even if his approval rating remains low.
I'm not saying low. I'm saying anything like his polls are now. He has been running lower than Trump. That's a complete disaster. And he is steaming into a consequential mid-term about to have the MSM hang the cloud of failure on him.

IMO you have to adjust for the risks. That's always the problem. There'd be major headwinds but Biden is looking like a Carter-level failure right now.

Still maybe it'll turn around. Though again weighing the odds, it feels unlikely. We are a year and a half into his administration and I don't see a path forward for that at the moment. This administration keeps finding itself behind the ball over and over. The Republicans have as usual out messaged and outplayed the Democrats. For example, the baby formula thing. Biden's remarks about not knowing how bad it was? A huge mistake. He keeps saying things that expose how out of touch, how he is out of the loop (even if it's unfair), and worse his every guy image was his major strength.

Anyway, all I'm saying is if his approval ratings indicates he is sure to lose we need to have a serious conversation. It'd be desperation time and perhaps all these headwinds hold up. However, all I'm saying is Biden looks like he is weaker at the moment than one of the worst President's in American history. We have to be thinking what we can do to save things. Nothing can be off the table.
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YellowKing
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Re: The 2024 S**t Show

Post by YellowKing »

Unagi wrote:That is not at all what the problem with Trump was.
It wasn't his only problem. But it was a SIGNIFICANT problem. He didn't understand you couldn't give away confidential secrets to Russians. He didn't understand the limitations of power of the executive, legislative, or judicial branches. He didn't understand diplomacy in any way, shape, or form. I don't think you can wave that away as a minor flaw.
Unagi wrote:An intelligent man with little political experience could do fine when they understand how to utilize and harness the help of an administration and good advisors that are not just ‘yes’ men.
I totally agree. We've had good Presidents with little or no political experience. But I question why we need that now when we have plenty of other actually qualified candidates. An ongoing world war threat with Russia, an ongoing pandemic, and an impending constitutional crisis seems to me a terrible time to start subbing in your rookies.

P.S. From an emotional perspective, I'd love to have a President Hanks or a President Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson. From a logical perspective, it feels more like a clickbait solution than an actual one.
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