[Poll] Whom Should Dems Run in 2024?

Archinerd · Post by **Archinerd** » Mon Jul 04, 2022 6:45 pm

My initial thought is Warren, but I could be convinced on AOC. Safe bets haven't been working out so well.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:30 pm

I could definitely get behind Fetterman.

waitingtoconnect · Post by **waitingtoconnect** » Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:36 pm

Bill Maher gets my vote for the laughs and because he should appeal to and offend all Americans simultaneously.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:17 am

Good luck finding someone that can unify this party.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:44 am

Defiant wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:17 am Good luck finding someone that can unify this party.

Indeed. Also, are we talking about who we would anoint if we had a magic wand, or who we would like to emerge from a chaotic democratic primary race?

Biden is not in great shape by any means, but unless he has some very visible health setback in the next year (e.g., heart attack or stroke) Democrats are almost certainly better off with him running for reelection than with whoever would emerge from a messy primary. As I've said him not running for reelection would be taken by the public as an admission of failure by the Democratic party, after which it's going to be really hard to put together a winning campaign message for the Democratic party. If there was some legendary elder statesman waiting in the wings that everyone in the party would accept and unify around, then maybe....but there's not.

$iljanus · Post by **$iljanus** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:58 am

I think Biden is a good foreign policy president but he’s more suited domestically to the camaraderie of a Congress that has long passed him by. We of course need someone who can work with politicians from across the ideological aisle but also someone who can scrap, fight and inspire the people who voted that person in. Biden and the geriatric crowd don’t fill me with inspiration.

Unfortunately from that list I don’t know who I would pick. If only Pete was a little older or Warren a little younger.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 10:09 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:44 am
Defiant wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:17 am Good luck finding someone that can unify this party.
Indeed. Also, are we talking about who we would anoint if we had a magic wand, or who we would like to emerge from a chaotic democratic primary race?

Biden is not in great shape by any means, but unless he has some very visible health setback in the next year (e.g., heart attack or stroke) Democrats are almost certainly better off with him running for reelection than with whoever would emerge from a messy primary. As I've said him not running for reelection would be taken by the public as an admission of failure by the Democratic party, after which it's going to be really hard to put together a winning campaign message for the Democratic party. If there was some legendary elder statesman waiting in the wings that everyone in the party would accept and unify around, then maybe....but there's not.

I disagree on two of your points:

1. An admission of failure is not necessary for people to see that his administration has been a failure (and it doesn't really matter why IMO, through his fault or not). I would even go so far as to say it's EXACTLY what's needed right now to signal that it's not MOTS. It's not like pivoting here would make people suddenly go " ah HA!!!! so shit has been bad all along and you haven't told us?!"
There is no hiding poor performance, people see it. Pivoting absolutely admits failure (that everyone already sees) but more importantly (IMO) says "and we SEE that failure, so we are going to do something about it, instead of try to pretend it didn't happen"

2. Not sure if your comment about the elder statesman waiting in the wings is a joke or not, so.... surely you're joking there?

Biden WAS the hesitant, elder statesman waiting in the wings last time. I'm strongly suggesting "elder statesman" is not the way to go. I think that many thought (including myself at one point) that an older, experienced, moderate (and yes, boring) candidate would bring the stability and normalcy people wanted after a rough and tumble 4 years of Trump. I do also remember internally fighting with myself about who to back between the safe, soothing "bipartisan Biden" to somehow "heal" the country, vs. the polarizing, firebrand Bernie to actually get some liberal (and yes, radical, for US) ideas going to try and right the ship (mostly wrt the skyrocketing financial inequality that has wrecked our system).

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 10:35 am

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 10:09 am
El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:44 am
Defiant wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:17 am Good luck finding someone that can unify this party.
Indeed. Also, are we talking about who we would anoint if we had a magic wand, or who we would like to emerge from a chaotic democratic primary race?

Biden is not in great shape by any means, but unless he has some very visible health setback in the next year (e.g., heart attack or stroke) Democrats are almost certainly better off with him running for reelection than with whoever would emerge from a messy primary. As I've said him not running for reelection would be taken by the public as an admission of failure by the Democratic party, after which it's going to be really hard to put together a winning campaign message for the Democratic party. If there was some legendary elder statesman waiting in the wings that everyone in the party would accept and unify around, then maybe....but there's not.
I disagree on two of your points:

1. An admission of failure is not necessary for people to see that his administration has been a failure (and it doesn't really matter why IMO, through his fault or not). I would even go so far as to say it's EXACTLY what's needed right now to signal that it's not MOTS. It's not like pivoting here would make people suddenly go " ah HA!!!! so shit has been bad all along and you haven't told us?!"
There is no hiding poor performance, people see it. Pivoting absolutely admits failure (that everyone already sees) but more importantly (IMO) says "and we SEE that failure, so we are going to do something about it, instead of try to pretend it didn't happen"

2. Not sure if your comment about the elder statesman waiting in the wings is a joke or not, so.... surely you're joking there? Biden WAS the hesitant, elder statesman waiting in the wings last time. I'm strongly suggesting "elder statesman" is not the way to go. I think that many thought (including myself at one point) that an older, experienced, moderate (and yes, boring) candidate would bring the stability and normalcy people wanted after a rough and tumble 4 years of Trump. I do also remember internally fighting with myself about who to back between the safe, soothing "bipartisan Biden" to somehow "heal" the country, vs. the polarizing, firebrand Bernie to actually get some liberal (and yes, radical, for US) ideas going to try and right the ship (mostly wrt the skyrocketing financial inequality that has wrecked our system).

"Hey, our party fucked up big time, so you should now vote for a different member of our party" is not a winning message for any 2024 Democrat. Why should they trust the party now when you're essentially telling them that they made a mistake by trusting the party in 2020?

By contrast a message of "here's all the good things we've done in the past couple years, here's the ways that the GOP has fucked up as much as it could, therefore you should reelect us and give us more seats" at least makes some sense.

And the elder statesman part is just about how there's no one waiting in the wings ("elder statesman" or otherwise) who would be widely acceptable to all wings of the Democratic Party. If Obama could run again, then *maybe* you think about pulling that ripcord, but...you know...he can't.

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 10:39 am

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 10:09 am 1. An admission of failure is not necessary for people to see that his administration has been a failure (and it doesn't really matter why IMO, through his fault or not). I would even go so far as to say it's EXACTLY what's needed right now to signal that it's not MOTS. It's not like pivoting here would make people suddenly go " ah HA!!!! so shit has been bad all along and you haven't told us?!"
There is no hiding poor performance, people see it. Pivoting absolutely admits failure (that everyone already sees) but more importantly (IMO) says "and we SEE that failure, so we are going to do something about it, instead of try to pretend it didn't happen"

There is the mature position of acknowledging the problem, taking ownership of it and taking steps to address it... then there is the position that acknowledging it is showing weakness. It's like the toxic masculinity of American politics.

People are up in arms about CRT, LGBTQ+ grooming and baby eating pedophiles (seriously, are we supposed to be eating them or not?), reality hardly exists for so many people at this point, I can't even imagine how you recover. As long as the Senate is impossible, I don't see much in the way of options outside the Drazzil-verse.

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 10:09 am get some liberal (and yes, radical, for US) ideas going to try and right the ship (mostly wrt the skyrocketing financial inequality that has wrecked our system).

Except that the system is working exactly as designed. Capitalism was never intended to benefit us.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 10:56 am

Also I just want to note that this is a different question than who would I like to be president in 2024. Like Kraken ideally I'd want Warren to be president, and there's a number of others that I'd prefer to Biden. BUT opening up a contested primary for 2024 feels like political suicide to me.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 12:13 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 10:56 am Also I just want to note that this is a different question than who would I like to be president in 2024. Like Kraken ideally I'd want Warren to be president, and there's a number of others that I'd prefer to Biden. BUT opening up a contested primary for 2024 feels like political suicide to me.

I get it, but I think it's Hail Mary time. If we continue to play it safe (i.e. re-running a VERY tired Biden), we will very likely continue to get our asses handed to us. I don't see a re-elected Biden doing any better than he is now, which is...not great. He will be older, and more tired. He already seems exhausted (and for good reason!)...just the physical toll of 4 years of this is massive. Not to even mention the mental part.

We run Biden, he wins, we get MOTS and a continuation of the decline into proto-authoritarianism
We run Biden, he loses...welcome to Gilead 1.0
We run x factor, they win...hopefully "something different"...a different strategy to fight back, a new perspective, more assertiveness and pushback against the red menace
We run x factor, they lose...welcome to Gilead 1.0

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 12:48 pm

There is a way out of El Guapo's concern, and that's if Biden drops out due to "health issues" or something similar. Something that allows him to save face in backing away from 2024 without it appearing that the Democratic base has lost faith in him.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 1:29 pm

YellowKing wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 12:48 pm There is a way out of El Guapo's concern, and that's if Biden drops out due to "health issues" or something similar. Something that allows him to save face in backing away from 2024 without it appearing that the Democratic base has lost faith in him.

The natural problem is that he is in the process of losing their support right now. Eventually you might not be able to paper over it.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 1:44 pm

YellowKing wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 12:48 pm There is a way out of El Guapo's concern, and that's if Biden drops out due to "health issues" or something similar. Something that allows him to save face in backing away from 2024 without it appearing that the Democratic base has lost faith in him.

Yeah, my whole mental exercise around this was premised on Biden voluntarily stepping down. The alternative would be horrible, politically.

If the rumors I read were true, he didn't really want to run for this current term (and he said himself that he didn't want to run in 2016). So I don't think it's a huge stretch given his past 8 year history on this, to think he would bow out gracefully (and probably happy for that out). Of course I could be completely misreading him and his intentions in the past 2 elections.

Can't imagine STARTING a rumor like that though (from the last election), because it was constantly being used against him in attack ads and right media: "He didn't even WANT the job!!!"

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 1:47 pm

Didn't want the job worked for Washington. Not being super serious here but more thinking that politics is the art of the possible. It is important to understand what you can sell.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:46 pm

FWIW I think that the cleanest way to change horses, so to speak, would be for Biden to resign due to health issues, giving Harris the incumbency advantage and effectively clearing the field for her (though that wouldn't guarantee that no one would challenge Harris).

One challenge with this is that most likely in January 2023 Democrats would lose the ability to name the replacement VP without getting GOP consent, and in the absence of a replacement the GOP Speaker would be next in line for the presidency. So that'd have to be done sometime in the next few months.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 3:02 pm

Resign? I think that's a bad path. Unless there was something credible, real soon, then I suppose so - but really it would need to be something that truly was a 'no-choice' health concern, not a strategic move.

Why is there a weakness in announcing that he wants to just complete these 4 years and then retire? I recognize the timing is important and that the Democratic Primary would not be fun, but I personally feel this can be easily framed as "The Democratic Party being responsible and honest about needing to get some new blood started, and that we haven't got time to waste" , etc.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 3:26 pm

Unagi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 3:02 pmWhy is there a weakness in announcing that he wants to just complete these 4 years and then retire? I recognize the timing is important and that the Democratic Primary would not be fun, but I personally feel this can be easily framed as "The Democratic Party being responsible and honest about needing to get some new blood started, and that we haven't got time to waste" , etc.

Yeah, that's where I'm coming from. I think any political hit from that would be on Biden himself, not his replacement. Which is fine.

I don't see a lot of people who would be voting "D" suddenly changing course just because Biden resigns after 4 years. If anything, people on the fence might actually vote for his replacement where they might have just stayed home otherwise, out of frustration (or other reasons).

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 3:52 pm

I'm starting to think the best ticket would be Fetterman/AOC. Fetterman can take the GOP BS head on. AOC is very well spoken on policy issues and would be a lightning rod for the slathering attack dogs. I think this ticket has a chance of defeating Florida Men.

Alefroth · Post by **Alefroth** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:10 pm

At least Fetterman has got the stroke out of the way.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:24 pm

Unagi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 3:02 pm Resign? I think that's a bad path. Unless there was something credible, real soon, then I suppose so - but really it would need to be something that truly was a 'no-choice' health concern, not a strategic move.

Why is there a weakness in announcing that he wants to just complete these 4 years and then retire? I recognize the timing is important and that the Democratic Primary would not be fun, but I personally feel this can be easily framed as "The Democratic Party being responsible and honest about needing to get some new blood started, and that we haven't got time to waste" , etc.

Well that was partly in response to YK suggesting that an out might be health issues. Which I'm skeptical of, but if there are real health issues then you could avoid tossing away the incumbency advantage a bit (and maybe avoid a messy primary) if Biden leaves ahead of the 2024 election season.

And I think there's a weakness because the general assumption is that presidents run for reelection, and so if he doesn't the assumption will be that there's a reason, which the GOP noise machine will immediate supply "he knows he'll be trounced" and/or "see we told you that old man Biden was senile and not up to this".

The other thing is that there is a real benefit from incumbency, and it's precisely because the political atmosphere is likely to be bad for democrats that I'm loathe to toss away one of the few structural advantages that they have.

Drazzil · Post by **Drazzil** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:26 pm

Jaymann wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 3:52 pm I'm starting to think the best ticket would be Fetterman/AOC. Fetterman can take the GOP BS head on. AOC is very well spoken on policy issues and would be a lightning rod for the slathering attack dogs. I think this ticket has a chance of defeating Florida Men.

What's gonna happen when the SC decides to rule that Republican states can send their own electors and then in two years Republican held states do just that regardless of what the people say?

What happens when the federal Dem's accept it? Biden or whatever weak noodle geriocrat they run meekly asks for calm and steps down, either because they already sold us out or because the D's are more in love with the process and the establishment that pays their bills. Then what?

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:28 pm

I hate to say it, but I can't see Biden being re-elected, incumbency or not.

He's something like 35 points underwater with young people and (as I saw pointed out I-forget-where) he has become a laughingstock and a meme for failure in young-person media. There's probably no overcoming that.

Drazzil · Post by **Drazzil** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:33 pm

Holman wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:28 pm I hate to say it, but I can't see Biden being re-elected, incumbency or not.

He's something like 35 points underwater with young people and (as I saw pointed out I-forget-where) he has become a laughingstock and a meme for failure in young-person media. There's probably no overcoming that.

Yep.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:47 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:24 pmThe other thing is that there is a real benefit from incumbency, and it's precisely because the political atmosphere is likely to be bad for democrats that I'm loathe to toss away one of the few structural advantages that they have.

I think this advantage is sometimes overstated. The most relevant counter case is Carter. But even Ford and Bush are instructive. Beyond Biden being a laughingstock with the young and frankly I think that is spreading to women right now, what happens if he looks even worse than he does now? I find that unlikely but it's possible. I've said it before that if Biden's polling looks anything like now in a year - he almost certainly needs to find a way to step away. I don't buy this assumption that a Biden who is mired in failure is going to have an incumbency advantage. It very well could be an incumbency disadvantage.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:50 pm

Holman wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:28 pm I hate to say it, but I can't see Biden being re-elected, incumbency or not.

He's something like 35 points underwater with young people and (as I saw pointed out I-forget-where) he has become a laughingstock and a meme for failure in young-person media. There's probably no overcoming that.

Who could possibly survive having memes made about them?

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:02 pm

Drazzil wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:26 pm
Jaymann wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 3:52 pm I'm starting to think the best ticket would be Fetterman/AOC. Fetterman can take the GOP BS head on. AOC is very well spoken on policy issues and would be a lightning rod for the slathering attack dogs. I think this ticket has a chance of defeating Florida Men.
What's gonna happen when the SC decides to rule that Republican states can send their own electors and then in two years Republican held states do just that regardless of what the people say?

What happens when the federal Dem's accept it? Biden or whatever weak noodle geriocrat they run meekly asks for calm and steps down, either because they already sold us out or because the D's are more in love with the process and the establishment that pays their bills. Then what?

A clear and present danger. Not sure what that has to do with my choice of candidates.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:08 pm

Well, any conversation ultimately leads to: burn it all down, naturally.

Drazzil · Post by **Drazzil** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:19 pm

Unagi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:08 pm Well, any conversation ultimately leads to: burn it all down, naturally.

No. I'm genuinely asking what you guys think would happen. You might not even be able to draw a line to violence from our side. We're pretty weak and beaten after all. Lemme tell you what I think would happen.... Nothing. The Dem's would urge calm and quietly go away. Collusion aside they are more in love with the process and establishment then democracy. Sure you might have a few western states talk about withholding tax dollars or talk about putting succession on the ballot, but in a few weeks all such talk would disappear.

That said I think this is the reason Dems should run someone with fire in their belly. Someone popular enough with young people to get them out marching and NON VIOLENTLY disrupting things if the other side tries nonsense.

Kinda hard to picture anyone out there marching and organizing NON VIOLENT disruptions for Biden or some other worthless establishment geriatric.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:38 pm

The D's would take them to court. And, in your world, their case would go to the SC and get shot down, and the game will then be over and the election was not just stollen but that theft was sanctioned and blessed.
I'm pretty sure there would be riots in the streets across the US.

But you are saying that the Democrats would then be in charge of forgiving the Republicans and that in a few weeks - everyone will just move on. The show must go on, as it were.

I don't think that can happen. I don't think people would forget in a few weeks (even if you think the Kabuki show will try and move the plot in that direction).

You just can't give up that theory, that they are literally all in a conspiracy against us.

Alefroth · Post by **Alefroth** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:00 pm

Drazzil wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:19 pm
Unagi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:08 pm Well, any conversation ultimately leads to: burn it all down, naturally.
No. I'm genuinely asking what you guys think would happen. You might not even be able to draw a line to violence from our side. We're pretty weak and beaten after all. Lemme tell you what I think would happen.... Nothing. The Dem's would urge calm and quietly go away. Collusion aside they are more in love with the process and establishment then democracy. Sure you might have a few western states talk about withholding tax dollars or talk about putting succession on the ballot, but in a few weeks all such talk would disappear.

What do you think the solution should be?

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:10 pm

FWiW even though I didn't vote for him in this poll, Newsom may very well be the only one who gets how to talk about the problem we face from tbe GOP. I don't know if that'll turn into momentum or will just pull other Dems along but I think his anto-DeSantis ads are amart politics.

$iljanus · Post by **$iljanus** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:17 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:10 pm FWiW even though I didn't vote for him in this poll, Newsom may very well be the only one who gets how to talk about the problem we face from tbe GOP. I don't know if that'll turn into momentum or will just pull other Dems along but I think his anto-DeSantis ads are amart politics.

I thought Newsom might be an interesting pick but didn't know if being the Democratic Gov of godless California would be an issue.

Drazzil · Post by **Drazzil** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:18 pm

Alefroth wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:00 pm
Drazzil wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:19 pm
Unagi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:08 pm Well, any conversation ultimately leads to: burn it all down, naturally.
No. I'm genuinely asking what you guys think would happen. You might not even be able to draw a line to violence from our side. We're pretty weak and beaten after all. Lemme tell you what I think would happen.... Nothing. The Dem's would urge calm and quietly go away. Collusion aside they are more in love with the process and establishment then democracy. Sure you might have a few western states talk about withholding tax dollars or talk about putting succession on the ballot, but in a few weeks all such talk would disappear.
What do you think the solution should be?

I don't know... I'm lost. I realize this more and more. We have no good solution. I would love to think that blue states would withhold tax dollars and put succession on the ballot, but that would depend on what the US military would do being faced by such a thing. I would hope that they would step in and stop the assholes from stealing the office but the military has been hollowed out by now. Another idea would be to organize to bring the economy and everything else to a halt, but I cant depend on many Americans to do that...So I genuinely don't know.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:24 pm

Newsom/Fetterman could be a very attractive pair. Both Progressive, both experienced, both GenX (for the first time on a ticket).

You could flip it the other way, but Newsom has more experience in government and Fetterman would be excellent in the VP attack-dog role. They also present different styles (suit vs sweatshirt), which broadens their appeal. It takes us back to the two-white-males standard, but they can be trusted to diversify their cabinet.

Drazzil · Post by **Drazzil** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:32 pm

I tbink Joe Biden should IMMEDIATELY step down and Harris should become prez

Drazzil · Post by **Drazzil** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:14 pm

Seriously this is the best idea I've had all week. Joe Biden taps out and Harris comes out swinging. Can you guys think of anything that could better energize the Democrat base?

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:17 pm

Drazzil wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:14 pm Seriously this is the best idea I've had all week. Joe Biden taps out and Harris comes out swinging. Can you guys think of anything that could better energize the Democrat base?

That was El Guapo’s idea.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:23 pm

So the Yankee RINO Governor (whose name escapes me) is out? Talk about standing up to BS...that guy should switch parties immediately since he probably doesn't recognize the GOP anymore. The little bit I've heard him, really liked the cut of his jib.

Depending on his 2a stance, I would totally vote for him (who shall remain nameless because Googling is hard).

Plus, that is a crazy, bold ballsy move, somethign we sorely need right now (going back to the Hail Mary analogy here). Have someone whose party totally betrayed them via radicalization fight back. Many of those types are SUPER angry at having their political worldview party hijacked by a bunch of know-nothing nutjobs, and know how to fight the beast better than D's probably.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:32 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:24 pmAnd I think there's a weakness because the general assumption is that presidents run for reelection, and so if he doesn't the assumption will be that there's a reason, which the GOP noise machine will immediate supply "he knows he'll be trounced" and/or "see we told you that old man Biden was senile and not up to this".

Right, so let that general assumption (but I will say again, almost all norms, assumptions, and conventional wisdom are out the window at this point, or should not be relied on) hang on Biden. "He knows he'll be trounced" is on him. "we told you that old man was senile" OK, fine you were right. He's gone. Now what?

Let them spend all their petty energy talking about how right they were about Biden, and we can slip in the X factor candidate while they are bloviating. I think it's a brilliant idea, and fi Biden is the patriot that I truly believe he is, he would probably be willing to take that hit to his legacy.

Who Should Be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2024?