2022 Midterm Election

[Smoove_B]

I love when they use that picture because every time I see it, I think of this:



Every. Time.

[Zaxxon]

More on Boebert... Tl;dr - It's close and no one knows how much is left to count.

[Smoove_B]

That's a shame it's so close as I'm imagining it won't get resolved quickly either way. Maybe the idea of working for Fox News instead will have her concede? Here's hoping...

[malchior]

Word just came out that 400K votes are still outstanding in Maricopa County in AZ. A lot of counting ahead still. It does bug me that several developing nations are able to run elections much better than some of our states.

[Jaymann]

If Florida Man (Uno) says publicly he is pleased with the results, you can bet behind closed doors he is like a crack whore screeching for a fix.

[Grifman]

The Post is obviously abandoning Trump after pushing him for so long.

[ImLawBoy]

Maybe, but if you're going to put the dead heat of Warnock/Walker on partisan loyalty vs. candidate quality as Holman did, then why is there such a gap between the Senate and Governor's races?

I don't. I'm on your side here. I think candidate quality matters. I think Walker is a terrible candidate, and that's the only reason the Rs don't have that seat right now. I also think Abrams is....not great....as a candidate, and that's why Kemp won handily.

I think I might be belaboring the point, but...

The current GA senators are both (very unexpectedly) Democrats. Their 2020-21 opponents were really NOT terrible candidates like Walker.

Why did the two Dems win back then in Georgia races that were almost as close as this one? Why did those not-ridiculously-embarrassing GOP candidates come in with basically the same margins as Walker?

I do think candidate quality *can* matter, but it doesn't matter very much in GA today. That a Warnock-Loeffler race, an Ossoff-Perdue race, and a Warnock-Walker race all go to runoffs inside of two years suggests that rigid partisanship is a major factor.

Not to further belabor the point, but the atmosphere was different in 2020. Even if the Red Tsunami ended up being a Pink Trickle, there was more general momentum behind Democrats in 2020 than there is now.

Another option, of course, is that we're both right. The election might be generally close because of partisan obstinance, but the actual result could vary based on Walker being such a horrible candidate. Even if almost all of the voters are going to vote for their party come hell or high water, there are still going to be some who consider the qualities of the candidates, and there are going to be some GOP loyalists who might sit out voting or just leave that race unvoted. Given how close the race is, it's not far-fetched to imagine a mid-50s white man who goes on about lower taxes and stopping CRT from picking up enough votes to win outright.

[El Guapo]

Reading through this thread today provides me with further validation of my policy of not reading anything about election results between 8 pm and midnight on election day. Needless torture.

[El Guapo]

Word just came out that 400K votes are still outstanding in Maricopa County in AZ. A lot of counting ahead still. It does bug me that several developing nations are able to run elections much better than some of our states.

Indeed. Though of course some of that is due to Republicans preventing fixes in order to take advantage of the delays.

ALSO - I got a good chuckle this morning reading posts by right wing types who suddenly discovered this morning that running for governor while Secretary of State is a MASSIVE CONFLICT OF INTERST that CANNOT be allowed.

[El Guapo]

Ralston's the guy to follow for NV updates. Of course, we don't know whether these results will be representative of what will follow, but good news for CM from this.

[Isgrimnur]

Vegas, baby!

[Kurth]

Word just came out that 400K votes are still outstanding in Maricopa County in AZ. A lot of counting ahead still. It does bug me that several developing nations are able to run elections much better than some of our states.

Again, I say, WTF, Arizona????

[waitingtoconnect]

That's a shame it's so close as I'm imagining it won't get resolved quickly either way. Maybe the idea of working for Fox News instead will have her concede? Here's hoping...

More money to be had from saying your election was stolen I suppose.

[waitingtoconnect]

Some great speeches from the wining Wisconsin governor (boring wins!) and Herschel Walker. I mean how was he a credible candidate over the reverend?

[malchior]

Washington Post is reporting AZ count might take 12 days due to the highest turnout in its history there. Kari Lake and Hobbs are pretty much even right now.

[Carpet_pissr]

We are definitely not out of the woods yet. Premature celebration, or people just happy
1. It’s not the predicted red wave
2. Poke in the eye for Trump, if not crippling political blow
?

Both of those are great IMO, but looks like we lose the house and could certainly still lose Senate.

Moral victories are nice, but technically winning is maybe more important in this particular case.

Silver lining: I do love that ‘we’ seemed to push back on the idea of moving the country further to the right though, if that’s how we can interpret the results so far.

[Grifman]

To reinforce my point:

[LordMortis]

Moral victories are nice, but technically winning is maybe more important in this particular case.

Not losing Govs, SoS, and AsG was more than a moral victory. Election theft was and is my main concern. As painfully as it may be we can right the ship from anything but the point where voting doesn't matter at all.

[YellowKing]

That's another reason I don't want Trump to run. Even if he should lose in 2024, we'd be dealing with "stolen election" garbage all over again. While I don't think he'd have the clout to cause another Jan 6th without the presidency, I don't want to find out what the crazies would do having the election "stolen" a second time.

[malchior]

We are definitely not out of the woods yet. Premature celebration, or people just happy
1. It’s not the predicted red wave
2. Poke in the eye for Trump, if not crippling political blow
?

Both of those are great IMO, but looks like we lose the house and could certainly still lose Senate.

Moral victories are nice, but technically winning is maybe more important in this particular case.

This was my reaction yesterday. A lot of premature celebration. There was only one scenario which would have made a real difference in the positive direction (defined by me as less risk long term). And it turns out it was not actually in reach, to wit the scenario where the Democrats held the House and got 53 Senators. Without 53 Senators Manchin and Sinema are still policy "shadow Presidents". Or maybe not even that depending on Warnock. They might not even have the ability to sit judges for the next 2 years. Worse the road ahead for 2024 in the Senate is grim. I get people are relieved but we're essentially actually in a slightly worse position than we were. That is surely better than much worse but still...yay? Especially when on the other side, they sat a decent amount of out in the open extremists. We saw some level of normalization of the extremes.

Silver lining: I do love that ‘we’ seemed to push back on the idea of moving the country further to the right though, if that’s how we can interpret the results so far.

This is the best outcome to me. We showed people that if they get up and vote we can fight back. The trouble is the above. How long will people keep it up if 'vote hard' leads to slightly worse results or maintaining a dysfunctional status quo.

[Defiant]

If Democrats do get 50 before the runoff, I think Warnock would easily win the runoff - Walker won't have Kemp on the ticket to help pull him up, we're bound to see more Walker gaffes and/or scandals and without control of the Senate at stake, there will be even less incentive to vote for a joke like Walker.

[malchior]

If Democrats do get 50 before the runoff, I think Warnock would easily win the runoff - Walker won't have Kemp on the ticket to help pull him up, we're bound to see more Walker gaffes and/or scandals and without control of the Senate at stake, there will be even less incentive to vote for a joke like Walker.

That would be good. Not having to rely on Warnock would be very nice. Even with these factors that race might still be a coin flip.

[Carpet_pissr]

Moral victories are nice, but technically winning is maybe more important in this particular case.

Not losing Govs, SoS, and AsG was more than a moral victory. Election theft was and is my main concern. As painfully as it may be we can right the ship from anything but the point where voting doesn't matter at all.

Well put. Agree.

[El Guapo]

If Democrats do get 50 before the runoff, I think Warnock would easily win the runoff - Walker won't have Kemp on the ticket to help pull him up, we're bound to see more Walker gaffes and/or scandals and without control of the Senate at stake, there will be even less incentive to vote for a joke like Walker.

That would be good. Not having to rely on Warnock would be very nice. Even with these factors that race might still be a coin flip.

Yeah, things are looking good right now re: the Senate. We're still waiting on numbers updates, but right now looking like CM will probably pull it out. Not 100% out of the woods in AZ either, but the general sense I get from election types is that there would need to be some significant shift in the ballots being counted now for Kelly to be in danger. So *probably* Democrats will hold on in the Senate regardless of Warnock. Would be nice to know soon, though.

I do worry a bit re: the runoff that if Senate control is not in the balance, that Democratic voters will say "mission accomplished" and stay home. Though whether that would outweigh the Republican base giving up / being unmotivated, who knows.

[Defiant]

Now can someone explain to me why Desantis won in a landslide? He doesn't strike me as someone with an extraordinary amount of charisma or oratory ability, and from what I've seen of him, he seems more of a culture warrior (eg, attacking covid restrictions, sending Texas undocumented immigrants to Martha's Vineyard, Don't Say Gay bill, etc).

Is the culture warrior stuff why he's so popular? Has he actually governed successfully? Had Florida just become super red? I know exit polls say he did well with Hispanics - has he developed a close relationship with their community? Or was Crist just a really awful candidate?

[El Guapo]

We are definitely not out of the woods yet. Premature celebration, or people just happy
1. It’s not the predicted red wave
2. Poke in the eye for Trump, if not crippling political blow
?

Both of those are great IMO, but looks like we lose the house and could certainly still lose Senate.

Moral victories are nice, but technically winning is maybe more important in this particular case.

This was my reaction yesterday. A lot of premature celebration. There was only one scenario which would have made a real difference in the positive direction (defined by me as less risk long term). And it turns out it was not actually in reach, to wit the scenario where the Democrats held the House and got 53 Senators. Without 53 Senators Manchin and Sinema are still policy "shadow Presidents". Or maybe not even that depending on Warnock. They might not even have the ability to sit judges for the next 2 years. Worse the road ahead for 2024 in the Senate is grim. I get people are relieved but we're essentially actually in a slightly worse position than we were. That is surely better than much worse but still...yay? Especially when on the other side, they sat a decent amount of out in the open extremists. We saw some level of normalization of the extremes.

Silver lining: I do love that ‘we’ seemed to push back on the idea of moving the country further to the right though, if that’s how we can interpret the results so far.

This is the best outcome to me. We showed people that if they get up and vote we can fight back. The trouble is the above. How long will people keep it up if 'vote hard' leads to slightly worse results or maintaining a dysfunctional status quo.

As long as the Democrats hold on in the Senate, then the mid-term results are definitely a big win. Doesn't mean that everything's great and we can all rest easy by any means, but it's definitely an important win.

Crazy that we don't even know about the House outcome yet, though. My sense is that it's still in the range of 80%+ chance of a GOP takeover, but that it's still up in the air is crazy.

[malchior]

As long as the Democrats hold on in the Senate, then the mid-term results are definitely a big win. Doesn't mean that everything's great and we can all rest easy by any means, but it's definitely an important win.

This is what I'm struggling with. People say this but I think where it falls apart (for me) is context. What's the model for it being a win? It's a stall at best, but mostly a little worse, and the danger still mounts.

Crazy that we don't even know about the House outcome yet, though. My sense is that it's still in the range of 80%+ chance of a GOP takeover, but that it's still up in the air is crazy.

That's the biggest surprise for sure but when I'm thinking long-term risk, if the Dems keep the House it at least prevents the 2 years of circus we'd be seeing the media megaphoning. That'd be at where I'd at least think there is some bright side even if we still are stuck with big time dysfunction.

Edit: One thing to watch is whether SCOTUS internalizes a message from the electorate here that they stepped *way out of line*. But that's really hard to detect/parse but one thing is becoming clearer is that Dobbs was a factor that woke some people out of their slumber.

[LordMortis]

Edit: One thing to watch is whether SCOTUS internalizes a message from the electorate here that they stepped *way out of line*.

Don't you dare give me hope for this.

[El Guapo]

As long as the Democrats hold on in the Senate, then the mid-term results are definitely a big win. Doesn't mean that everything's great and we can all rest easy by any means, but it's definitely an important win.

This is what I'm struggling with. People say this but I think where it falls apart (for me) is context. What's the model for it being a win? It's a stall at best, but mostly a little worse, and the danger still mounts.

Crazy that we don't even know about the House outcome yet, though. My sense is that it's still in the range of 80%+ chance of a GOP takeover, but that it's still up in the air is crazy.

That's the biggest surprise for sure but when I'm thinking long-term risk, if the Dems keep the House it at least prevents the 2 years of circus we'd be seeing the media megaphoning. That'd be at where I'd at least think there is some bright side even if we still are stuck with big time dysfunction.

Edit: One thing to watch is whether SCOTUS internalizes a message from the electorate here that they stepped *way out of line*. But that's really hard to detect/parse but one thing is becoming clearer is that Dobbs was a factor that woke some people out of their slumber.

I'm thinking of it as a significant win in that the Democrats won maybe 80%+ of what they could have realistically won in this election. Obviously that's based upon how things currently look - if the Republicans do ultimately secure control of the Senate then it's not a win, and if the Democrats wind up with both the House and the Senate then I don't see how it'd even be a question that they won.

I suppose it doesn't really matter whether one considers this a "win", though. Functionally they won the right to continue to confirm Biden judges and executive branch appointees. I also imagine that the consequences for Democratic morale and ability to hold together for the next couple years had Republicans won in a rout would have been catastrophic. And Republicans lost the most significant races that would have allowed them to easily fix the 2024 election, depending somewhat on whether Hobbs holds on in AZ.

[Holman]

We are definitely not out of the woods yet. Premature celebration, or people just happy
1. It’s not the predicted red wave
2. Poke in the eye for Trump, if not crippling political blow
?

Both of those are great IMO, but looks like we lose the house and could certainly still lose Senate.

Moral victories are nice, but technically winning is maybe more important in this particular case.

Silver lining: I do love that ‘we’ seemed to push back on the idea of moving the country further to the right though, if that’s how we can interpret the results so far.

Don't overlook the surprising and hugely significant victories won at state levels.

In PA, for example, it looks like Dems are going to take the state House for the first time in more than a decade. Fighting back against the PA GOP is what first made my wife an activist. She has been working hard for this day since our kids (now in HS and college) were in elementary school.

[Skinypupy]

For your enjoyment.

[Kraken]

Moral victories are nice, but technically winning is maybe more important in this particular case.

Not losing Govs, SoS, and AsG was more than a moral victory. Election theft was and is my main concern. As painfully as it may be we can right the ship from anything but the point where voting doesn't matter at all.

Well put. Agree.

Yeah, it looks like 2024 has a better shot at being another democratic election rather than a setup for a fascist coup. Even if the red team wins fair and square, democracy might still survive.

Also, if the GOP ends up gumming up the works and pushing unpopular policies for the next two years, it's less likely that the red team wins next time.

[stessier]

This is just a ways north of us. I'd say they deserve what they get, but the people counting on city services are the ones who are going to be hurt.



The image in the Tweet is the guy who lost. This is the guy who won.

[malchior]

I'm thinking of it as a significant win in that the Democrats won maybe 80%+ of what they could have realistically won in this election. Obviously that's based upon how things currently look - if the Republicans do ultimately secure control of the Senate then it's not a win, and if the Democrats wind up with both the House and the Senate then I don't see how it'd even be a question that they won.

Got it. In that sense I'd agree.

I suppose it doesn't really matter whether one considers this a "win", though. Functionally they won the right to continue to confirm Biden judges and executive branch appointees.

This is exactly where I see disconnect. People are out there cheering that we might be able to continue with basic functions of Senate business. That's grim. And we have some immediate crises on the near horizon (debt ceiling as a prime example).

I also imagine that the consequences for Democratic morale and ability to hold together for the next couple years had Republicans won in a rout would have been catastrophic.

This is true for sure. The Florida returns were a big scare. If that had happened elsewhere we'd be in some real shit right now.

And Republicans lost the most significant races that would have allowed them to easily fix the 2024 election, depending somewhat on whether Hobbs holds on in AZ.

Right. This one is a bit of a sword of Damocles.

[El Guapo]

FWIW Bill Kristol (who previously said that 2020 turned out to be Dunkirk instead of D-Day) said the other day that the 2022 results looked like the 1942 North African campaign - essentially a win that keeps up morale and position for bigger fights ahead. I think that's directionally correct.

[Jaymann]

The image in the Tweet is the guy who lost. This is the guy who won.

Hey, at least he likes Fallout. Unless of course his goal is bottle cap economy.

[Zaxxon]

[Kurth]

I knew Boebert’s ousting was too good to be true. Please, please, let her be gone.

Should we be concerned about the 550 ballots “in cure for signature verification”?

[Zaxxon]

I knew Boebert’s ousting was too good to be true. Please, please, let her be gone.

Should we be concerned about the 550 ballots “in cure for signature verification”?

I'm more worried about the in-person votes, since those include a heavy R slate of conspiracy theorists who went in person to avoid teh FARUUUDDSS! (In Colorado, you vote in person if you misplaced your ballot or like using voting machines out of a wistful memory for a bygone, simpler time. If you're a relatively normal responsible adult, you mail it in or drop it off.) Pueblo in general is going to be for Frisch by around a 55-45 margin if current trends continue, but that 1,800 in-person number is likely to tip the other way by more than 55-45, and maybe enough to keep this thing effectively deadlocked.

I'm expecting a recount one way or the other at this point. Would love to be wrong.

[YellowKing]

It boggles my mind that you can have this close a race between a competent human being and someone with the IQ-equivalent of a box of doorknobs. Outside of politics, nobody would trust that moron to flip burgers (and given her food poisoning record, that's probably a good thing!)