2022 Midterm Election

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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by ImLawBoy »

waitingtoconnect wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:46 am However in my opinion gerrymandering needs to stop. It’s anti democratic and it’s grossly hypocritical of the democrats to do it too.
Fun gerrymandering anecdote! I learned recently that my current residence was gerrymandered into a new district some years back because then US Representative Luis Gonzalez wanted to live in a property he purchased on my block. The powers that be made it happen. (He no longer lives here, but still owns the property and rents it out to relatives. He showed up at our block party over Halloween weekend.)
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Kraken »

LordMortis wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:01 am I can't speak to other states but we're just now overcoming it in Michigan for now by successive brute force reactionary voting to an insane minority controlling a corrupt larger minority that had been controlling the state for a long time. It needs to stop everywhere not just here. Blue states. Red States. Purple states. Everywhere.
Michigan's solution is a model that I'd like to see all states adopt.

Expanding the House is also overdue; the US population has tripled since the number of seats was frozen in 1929, as has the number of people represented per seat.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by noxiousdog »

Kraken wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:19 pm
Expanding the House is also overdue; the US population has tripled since the number of seats was frozen in 1929, as has the number of people represented per seat.
Are there any downsides to this?
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by stessier »

noxiousdog wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:23 pm
Kraken wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:19 pm
Expanding the House is also overdue; the US population has tripled since the number of seats was frozen in 1929, as has the number of people represented per seat.
Are there any downsides to this?
Small states would fight it as their representation is diluted even more. Not sure if that's truly a downside though.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Zaxxon »

stessier wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:34 pm
noxiousdog wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:23 pm
Kraken wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:19 pm
Expanding the House is also overdue; the US population has tripled since the number of seats was frozen in 1929, as has the number of people represented per seat.
Are there any downsides to this?
Small states would fight it as their representation is diluted even more. Not sure if that's truly a downside though.
We'll hear them out when they lose outsized representation in the Senate.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by LordMortis »

noxiousdog wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:23 pm
Kraken wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:19 pm
Expanding the House is also overdue; the US population has tripled since the number of seats was frozen in 1929, as has the number of people represented per seat.
Are there any downsides to this?
Those interests who have long entrenchment in established outsized minority control will lose it and elected officials, in general, will have a more difficult time choosing and retaining their electors? Well, it's a downside for them, anyway.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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I didn't try to find independent confirmation and I don't trust Twitter anymore because I can't tell who is who, but I'll still note that a Tweeter said Boebert might be in the lead with enough to be outside the margin for an automatic recount.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Zaxxon »

stessier wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:07 pm I didn't try to find independent confirmation and I don't trust Twitter anymore because I can't tell who is who, but I'll still note that a Tweeter said Boebert might be in the lead with enough to be outside the margin for an automatic recount.
I had just come here to post that it's now looking highly likely that Boebert will survive. At present it's not even trending toward an automatic recount to confirm.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by gilraen »

stessier wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:07 pm I didn't try to find independent confirmation and I don't trust Twitter anymore because I can't tell who is who, but it looks like Boebert might be in the lead with enough to be outside the margin for an automatic recount.
Yeah, unfortunately she pulled ahead by 1122 votes as of this morning, not sure there are enough ballots left for Frisch to overcome the deficit.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Skinypupy »

Zaxxon wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:09 pm
stessier wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:07 pm I didn't try to find independent confirmation and I don't trust Twitter anymore because I can't tell who is who, but I'll still note that a Tweeter said Boebert might be in the lead with enough to be outside the margin for an automatic recount.
I had just come here to post that it's now looking highly likely that Boebert will survive. At present it's not even trending toward an automatic recount to confirm.
I warned y’all not to depend on Pueblo. ;)
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Zaxxon »

Skinypupy wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:24 pm
Zaxxon wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:09 pm
stessier wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:07 pm I didn't try to find independent confirmation and I don't trust Twitter anymore because I can't tell who is who, but I'll still note that a Tweeter said Boebert might be in the lead with enough to be outside the margin for an automatic recount.
I had just come here to post that it's now looking highly likely that Boebert will survive. At present it's not even trending toward an automatic recount to confirm.
I warned y’all not to depend on Pueblo. ;)
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Holman »

El Guapo wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:46 am
Holman wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:42 am Kari Lake just (surprisingly) conceded.


Are you talking about this? She hasn't conceded as far as I can tell, but thanks to Elon Musk we have these kinds of Twitter shenanigans.
Yeah, I got fooled there.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by LordMortis »

gilraen wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:11 pm
stessier wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:07 pm I didn't try to find independent confirmation and I don't trust Twitter anymore because I can't tell who is who, but it looks like Boebert might be in the lead with enough to be outside the margin for an automatic recount.
Yeah, unfortunately she pulled ahead by 1122 votes as of this morning, not sure there are enough ballots left for Frisch to overcome the deficit.
Election Fraud? :ninja:
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Skinypupy »

LordMortis wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:40 pm
gilraen wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:11 pm
stessier wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:07 pm I didn't try to find independent confirmation and I don't trust Twitter anymore because I can't tell who is who, but it looks like Boebert might be in the lead with enough to be outside the margin for an automatic recount.
Yeah, unfortunately she pulled ahead by 1122 votes as of this morning, not sure there are enough ballots left for Frisch to overcome the deficit.
Election Fraud? :ninja:
Only when they lose, duh.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by El Guapo »

Skinypupy wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:58 pm
LordMortis wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:40 pm
gilraen wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:11 pm
stessier wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:07 pm I didn't try to find independent confirmation and I don't trust Twitter anymore because I can't tell who is who, but it looks like Boebert might be in the lead with enough to be outside the margin for an automatic recount.
Yeah, unfortunately she pulled ahead by 1122 votes as of this morning, not sure there are enough ballots left for Frisch to overcome the deficit.
Election Fraud? :ninja:
Only when they lose, duh.
Of course, if Boebert is slightly ahead, and a recount causes her to lose, everyone would take that super well.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Kraken »

noxiousdog wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:23 pm
Kraken wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:19 pm
Expanding the House is also overdue; the US population has tripled since the number of seats was frozen in 1929, as has the number of people represented per seat.
Are there any downsides to this?
They're going to need a bigger house. :)

Tripling its size could get unwieldy, but bumping it up by 50% should be manageable. This article is a few years old but lays out two schemes for reapportioning.
The “Wyoming Rule” takes the population of the fifty states and divides it by the population of the smallest state, which then would serve as the number of congressional districts to be apportioned. The seats are then apportioned to the fifty states. This method prioritizes fairness between districts: The population of the smallest state will also be the average population of congressional districts overall.

The “Cube Root Rule” would instead have the national legislature always be the cube root of the total population of the nation. The House would be the cube root of the U.S. apportionment population minus 100 (to account for the 100 United States senators). Political scientists have found that national legislatures often approximate the cube root of their populations . This method prioritizes responsiveness to population changes. As the population grows, so too does Congress.

The number of seats apportioned by the Wyoming Rule based on the 2010 census increases the number of representatives by 109 from 435 representatives to 544, with 40 states receiving at least one additional representative. Based on population projections, applying the Wyoming Rule to the 2021 redistricting would result in 577 seats, with 43 states seeing an increase compared to a House size of 435.

The Cube Root Rule would apportion 576 seats to the states following 2010, with 43 states receiving at least one additional representative. Population projections suggest that following 2020, 592 seats would be apportioned out with 45 states receiving additional seats compared to a House size of 435.

In either case, the largest share of the additional seats goes to the larger states like California, Texas, and New York, but almost every state would see some increase in its number of representatives.

The Wyoming Rule’s ideals of equity seem reasonable, but it neither tracks overall population nor does it protect against the possibility of the House becoming huge. In fact, if the Wyoming Rule been used in 1920, the House would have had 1,360 Members, and that number would have decreased every decade until 1990, even as the population grew.

The Cube Root Rule provides a better fit between population and the size of the House, but it lacks the intuitive value of matching the size of districts to that of the smallest state. Though both methods have their strengths and weaknesses, either would make voting power across state lines more equal
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by malchior »

Guess we're seeing the internal battling between all the many fools in the idiot king's court. The premise is sort of wacky to me. He is more irresponsible and chaotic than when he was denying the election and fomenting an attack on the Capitol? That seems dubious.

I'm trying to figure out if this type of person could even exist - not to say Costa is lying but more that this isn't a person actually in any inner circle or who might be exaggerating. When I envision the Venn diagram here, one circle would represent the absolute human trash and bottomfeeders who would still be anywhere near his "inner circle". Another would be people willing to try to push the concept of political 'responsibility' on Trump. And they ain't touching.
Last edited by malchior on Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Grifman »

Dems are about to win the NV senate seat. Most of the outstanding votes heavily lean Democratic. Will be interesting to see if the Republican goes the fraud route, or if the market for that has passed.

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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Kraken »

If Dems end up with 51 senators, what's Kamala Harris going to do when her tie-breaker isn't needed anymore?

On a loosely related note, what's the over-and-under on Pelosi retiring? I gotta think the attack on her husband will move her to lay down the gavel as soon as she deems it prudent.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Carpet_pissr »

malchior wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:16 pm Guess we're seeing the internal battling between all the many fools in the idiot king's court. The premise is sort of wacky to me. He is more irresponsible and chaotic than when he was denying the election and fomenting an attack on the Capitol? That seems dubious.

I'm trying to figure out if this type of person could even exist - not to say Costa is lying but more that this isn't a person actually in any inner circle or who might be exaggerating. When I envision the Venn diagram here, one circle would represent the absolute human trash and bottomfeeders who would still be anywhere near his "inner circle". Another would be people willing to try to push the concept of political 'responsibility' on Trump. And they ain't touching.
Yeah, my first reaction to reading that was that this person sounds shocked at shitty behavior by Trump. And called out ‘mean-spirited’ like it was some anomaly. Wtf.

He’s NOTORIOUSLY shitty behind closed doors. ‘Mean-spirited’ is practically his icon.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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Kraken wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:01 pm
On a loosely related note, what's the over-and-under on Pelosi retiring? I gotta think the attack on her husband will move her to lay down the gavel as soon as she deems it prudent.
God, I hope not. Whether she needs to step down or not, now is not the time. I don't want there to be any optics even remotely suggesting that the attack brought about any sort of result.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by naednek »

noxiousdog wrote:
Kraken wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:19 pm
Expanding the House is also overdue; the US population has tripled since the number of seats was frozen in 1929, as has the number of people represented per seat.
Are there any downsides to this?
They'd have to install more chairs

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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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Kraken wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:01 pm If Dems end up with 51 senators, what's Kamala Harris going to do when her tie-breaker isn't needed anymore?
It will come in handy if there is a Manchin or Sinema defection, but not both.

Edit: Oh, if they both defect it will be 49 all and her vote breaks the tie.
Last edited by Jaymann on Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Grifman »

Kelly wins Senate in AZ:

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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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Election denier loses AZ SOS:

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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Exodor »

Grifman wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:44 pm Election denier loses AZ SOS:
Best news of the day!
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Skinypupy »

Exodor wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:50 pm
Grifman wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:44 pm Election denier loses AZ SOS:
Best news of the day!
Amen to that
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Kraken »

Blackhawk wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:29 pm
Kraken wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:01 pm
On a loosely related note, what's the over-and-under on Pelosi retiring? I gotta think the attack on her husband will move her to lay down the gavel as soon as she deems it prudent.
God, I hope not. Whether she needs to step down or not, now is not the time. I don't want there to be any optics even remotely suggesting that the attack brought about any sort of result.
Now is the best time. Chairs are already shuffling and realigning. The Dems' midterm success owes a lot to strong youth turnout. So let's give someone younger two years to grow into the job. Even though they're good at their jobs, the D Party's geriatrics need to hand off to a new generation, and we're at a natural inflection point.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Jaymann »

Sweet! Laxalt's lead is down to 800 votes with 5% of Vegas still to count. Fat lady is gargling.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Exodor »

Skinypupy wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:00 am
Exodor wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:50 pm
Grifman wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:44 pm Election denier loses AZ SOS:
Best news of the day!
Amen to that
He's having a Twitter temper tantrum and it's delicious to watch.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Blackhawk »

Kraken wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:22 am
Blackhawk wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:29 pm
Kraken wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:01 pm
On a loosely related note, what's the over-and-under on Pelosi retiring? I gotta think the attack on her husband will move her to lay down the gavel as soon as she deems it prudent.
God, I hope not. Whether she needs to step down or not, now is not the time. I don't want there to be any optics even remotely suggesting that the attack brought about any sort of result.
Now is the best time. Chairs are already shuffling and realigning. The Dems' midterm success owes a lot to strong youth turnout. So let's give someone younger two years to grow into the job. Even though they're good at their jobs, the D Party's geriatrics need to hand off to a new generation, and we're at a natural inflection point.
She can do the same in six months when it doesn't make it look like violence works.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Kraken »

Blackhawk wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:51 am
Kraken wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:22 am
Blackhawk wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:29 pm
Kraken wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:01 pm
On a loosely related note, what's the over-and-under on Pelosi retiring? I gotta think the attack on her husband will move her to lay down the gavel as soon as she deems it prudent.
God, I hope not. Whether she needs to step down or not, now is not the time. I don't want there to be any optics even remotely suggesting that the attack brought about any sort of result.
Now is the best time. Chairs are already shuffling and realigning. The Dems' midterm success owes a lot to strong youth turnout. So let's give someone younger two years to grow into the job. Even though they're good at their jobs, the D Party's geriatrics need to hand off to a new generation, and we're at a natural inflection point.
She can do the same in six months when it doesn't make it look like violence works.
Understood. But 6 months is long-range planning when you're 82. I hope she does whatever makes her happiest with the time she has left, and I suspect that herding cats isn't her happy place, especially non-dominant cats.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Unagi »

The AP has called AZ for Kelly.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Unagi »

Kraken wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:01 pm If Dems end up with 51 senators, what's Kamala Harris going to do when her tie-breaker isn't needed anymore?
I’m not sure if you have already forgotten how many votes we couldn’t get passed with just 50 ….
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Kraken »

Unagi wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 7:01 am
Kraken wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:01 pm If Dems end up with 51 senators, what's Kamala Harris going to do when her tie-breaker isn't needed anymore?
I’m not sure if you have already forgotten how many votes we couldn’t get passed with just 50 ….
It's not like Harris gets to be #52.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Harris who?
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Unagi »

Kraken wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:16 am
Unagi wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 7:01 am
Kraken wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:01 pm If Dems end up with 51 senators, what's Kamala Harris going to do when her tie-breaker isn't needed anymore?
I’m not sure if you have already forgotten how many votes we couldn’t get passed with just 50 ….
It's not like Harris gets to be #52.
But she can still break a tie when our two spoil sports bail.
With 51, those two can abstain, and the 49-49 tie can be broken.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by stessier »

Unagi wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:42 pm
Kraken wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:16 am
Unagi wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 7:01 am
Kraken wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:01 pm If Dems end up with 51 senators, what's Kamala Harris going to do when her tie-breaker isn't needed anymore?
I’m not sure if you have already forgotten how many votes we couldn’t get passed with just 50 ….
It's not like Harris gets to be #52.
But she can still break a tie when our two spoil sports bail.
With 51, those two can abstain, and the 49-49 tie can be broken.
Why would they abstain? I see them just voting No.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Defiant »

She'll no doubt have a lot less tiebreakers, but Pence had a few tiebreakers, even though the Senate (when republicans controlled it) had 51-52 Republicans.

And using this, it looks like the Manchin and Sinema vote differently 5% of the time (although only twice in major votes, and then the votes in the rest of the chamber weren't that close)
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