2022 Midterm Election

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El Guapo
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by El Guapo »

stessier wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:45 pm
Unagi wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:42 pm
Kraken wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:16 am
Unagi wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 7:01 am
Kraken wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:01 pm If Dems end up with 51 senators, what's Kamala Harris going to do when her tie-breaker isn't needed anymore?
I’m not sure if you have already forgotten how many votes we couldn’t get passed with just 50 ….
It's not like Harris gets to be #52.
But she can still break a tie when our two spoil sports bail.
With 51, those two can abstain, and the 49-49 tie can be broken.
Why would they abstain? I see them just voting No.
If they voted no, then the bill in question would fail 49-51. What was being suggested was a way for them to not vote in favor of a bill but still have the bill pass.

But we're getting ahead of ourselves. Looking like a good chance that CM pulls out NV for 50, but how the GA run-off will go, who knows.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Holman »

El Guapo wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 3:00 pm But we're getting ahead of ourselves. Looking like a good chance that CM pulls out NV for 50, but how the GA run-off will go, who knows.
CM winning in NV would help immensely in GA.

If the senate is already 50D-49R, Republicans have to get their people to turn out for Walker even though it won't change control. (And it's starting to look like Walker only did as well as he did because he was riding Kemp's coattails. That won't be a factor this time.)

If the senate is at 49D-50R, the Republicans can tell their people that they're really voting only for control of the Senate, not for Walker himself.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by gilraen »

Dems flip a House seat in WA03 - apparently a huge upset in a race where FiveThirtyEight was giving the Republican something like 98% chance of winning.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Grifman »

It's going to be awful if the Republicans win the House by 1 seat, as it appears they will probably do. So much mischief to be done because of that one seat.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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Grifman wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:28 pm It's going to be awful if the Republicans win the House by 1 seat, as it appears they will probably do. So much mischief to be done because of that one seat.
Hopefully, there are one or two human beings willing to actually do what they should do. But I bet you are right, they all walk in perfect unison. :(
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Kraken »

Unagi wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:48 pm
Grifman wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:28 pm It's going to be awful if the Republicans win the House by 1 seat, as it appears they will probably do. So much mischief to be done because of that one seat.
Hopefully, there are one or two human beings willing to actually do what they should do. But I bet you are right, they all walk in perfect unison. :(
Maybe not. The MAGAts will try to burn the country to the ground, and the party at large isn't going to unite behind defaulting on the national debt or sacrificing Ukraine, for example.

It's really going to suck if that one seat is Boebert's, though.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Alefroth »

gilraen wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:22 pm Dems flip a House seat in WA03 - apparently a huge upset in a race where FiveThirtyEight was giving the Republican something like 98% chance of winning.
Who has called that?
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by gilraen »

Alefroth wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 10:03 pm
gilraen wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:22 pm Dems flip a House seat in WA03 - apparently a huge upset in a race where FiveThirtyEight was giving the Republican something like 98% chance of winning.
Who has called that?
NBC
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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If the Dems keep the Senate and the GOP barely takes the House, the GOP will immediately shut down the January 6 committee.

Under those conditions, would the Senate be able to launch its own continuing investigation?
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Holman »



Various outlets are just now projecting that CCM has won the Senate seat in NV.

This brings things to 50D-49R with the Warnock-Walker runoff remaining.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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:dance:
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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Kraken wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:57 pm
Unagi wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:48 pm
Grifman wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:28 pm It's going to be awful if the Republicans win the House by 1 seat, as it appears they will probably do. So much mischief to be done because of that one seat.
Hopefully, there are one or two human beings willing to actually do what they should do. But I bet you are right, they all walk in perfect unison. :(
Maybe not. The MAGAts will try to burn the country to the ground, and the party at large isn't going to unite behind defaulting on the national debt or sacrificing Ukraine, for example.

It's really going to suck if that one seat is Boebert's, though.
I hear ya, I'm just being stupidly remotely hopeful that they find their "House of Rep majority" as tenuous as Democrats found their Senate majority. I am hopeful that just maybe a single one-or-two R-Congressmen may find themselves enough constituent support to oppose outright bullshit. I'm also not entirely hopeful that this will happen.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Unagi »

Holman wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 10:11 pm If the Dems keep the Senate and the GOP barely takes the House, the GOP will immediately shut down the January 6 committee.

Under those conditions, would the Senate be able to launch its own continuing investigation?
I'm curious too. I imagine it centers around the Senate being able to launch its own "Filibuster-proof" investigation.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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:banana-dance: :happy-jumpeveryone:
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Grifman »

Success . . .

Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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Holman wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 10:11 pm If the Dems keep the Senate and the GOP barely takes the House, the GOP will immediately shut down the January 6 committee.
Maybe. After this week, the GOP has to be questioning the wisdom of flaunting the law to support Trump.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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I was hoping he'd have croaked by now or at least lost more of his mind to be a drooling veggie.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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Who would have thunk democracy would be upheld by...Las Vegas. 8-)
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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The WaPo model still shows Lake ultimately overtaking Hobbs. They got Cortez Masto right. Anyone heard anything to the contrary?
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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Grifman wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:28 pm Success . . .

Even Florida Man (Uno) is reluctant to announce after so much losing.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Kraken »

Unagi wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 10:23 pm
Kraken wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:57 pm
Unagi wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:48 pm
Grifman wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:28 pm It's going to be awful if the Republicans win the House by 1 seat, as it appears they will probably do. So much mischief to be done because of that one seat.
Hopefully, there are one or two human beings willing to actually do what they should do. But I bet you are right, they all walk in perfect unison. :(
Maybe not. The MAGAts will try to burn the country to the ground, and the party at large isn't going to unite behind defaulting on the national debt or sacrificing Ukraine, for example.

It's really going to suck if that one seat is Boebert's, though.
I hear ya, I'm just being stupidly remotely hopeful that they find their "House of Rep majority" as tenuous as Democrats found their Senate majority. I am hopeful that just maybe a single one-or-two R-Congressmen may find themselves enough constituent support to oppose outright bullshit. I'm also not entirely hopeful that this will happen.
The GOP is going to see two years of intraparty strife as factions compete. You've got your true MAGAts. You've got your lip-service MAGAts who can see which way the wind is blowing but are afraid of their base voters. And maybe there are a few never-MAGAts who'll feel emboldened to come out of the shadows. The second group is the largest, and they're going to be conflicted. I read today that we might see a struggle for the speakership as not everybody's cool with Kevin McCarthy.

If the Rs do take the house by a seat or two, I think Dems are going to have a :pop: couple of years.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by LordMortis »

Grifman wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:28 pm Success . . .

Then what will his huge announcement be? I've been setting you up for a week for a huge announcement that I lost the GOP the senate and five state governments that were crucial to my lawsuiting my way into vote frauding the presidency in 2024? But I did deliver you the House in a lesser fashion than would have happened without my involvement. It was a huge night for [me[/i].
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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Alefroth wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 12:20 am The WaPo model still shows Lake ultimately overtaking Hobbs. They got Cortez Masto right. Anyone heard anything to the contrary?
Ooh, WaPo removed their projection. Hopefully that's a good sign.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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LordMortis wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:30 am
Grifman wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:28 pm Success . . .

Then what will his huge announcement be?
Are you misreading the text?

"Trump won't ONLY officially announce"
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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:oops:
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by YellowKing »

I think the biggest story out of this entire election is that the fear that every close race would be disputed and litigated failed to materialize. It seems the "election fraud" narrative was a paper tiger. Many of these margins are much smaller than what Biden won the presidency with, and even with Congressional control on the line election-denier candidates just shrugged and accepted their loss. I'm stunned.

On the other hand, should I be surprised? We all knew these folks were just tossing red meat to the base by repeating Trumpism talking points. This election exposed them as the frauds they are - talking a big game, but not actually believing any of the nonsense they were spouting.

All that said, it doesn't mean everything's magically back to normal. We'll be dealing with it again 2024, particularly if Trump is the nominee. However, I'm not going to worry about that right now, and enjoy a fairly controversy-free election that hearkened back to the good old pre-Trump days.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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Kraken wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 2:31 am
Blackhawk wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:51 am
Kraken wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:22 am
Blackhawk wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:29 pm
Kraken wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 10:01 pm
On a loosely related note, what's the over-and-under on Pelosi retiring? I gotta think the attack on her husband will move her to lay down the gavel as soon as she deems it prudent.
God, I hope not. Whether she needs to step down or not, now is not the time. I don't want there to be any optics even remotely suggesting that the attack brought about any sort of result.
Now is the best time. Chairs are already shuffling and realigning. The Dems' midterm success owes a lot to strong youth turnout. So let's give someone younger two years to grow into the job. Even though they're good at their jobs, the D Party's geriatrics need to hand off to a new generation, and we're at a natural inflection point.
She can do the same in six months when it doesn't make it look like violence works.
Understood. But 6 months is long-range planning when you're 82. I hope she does whatever makes her happiest with the time she has left, and I suspect that herding cats isn't her happy place, especially non-dominant cats.
What makes her happiest is accumulating wealth. And let's not forget that Paul has to drive with a breathalyzer interlock installed in his car because of his recent DUI.

It's not like this couple are being stopped from living their twilight years because of some strong sense of duty to public service. They thrive on it.

Not resigning as a result of the attack is ONE positive thing she can do right now.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Smoove_B »

YellowKing wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 9:56 am I think the biggest story out of this entire election is that the fear that every close race would be disputed and litigated failed to materialize.
That's true, but for me the biggest story is that Nate Silver is still a clown. Perhaps he should have been tweaking models and learning things over the last 4+ years instead of becoming an expert in so many other topics. He's clearly a partisan hack at this point and I genuinely hope no one is taking him seriously anymore.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Holman »

Blackhawk wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:51 pm
Holman wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 10:11 pm If the Dems keep the Senate and the GOP barely takes the House, the GOP will immediately shut down the January 6 committee.
Maybe. After this week, the GOP has to be questioning the wisdom of flaunting the law to support Trump.
Nah. They'll make support for a Speaker contingent on going all-in and using committees in every political way.

Even if the GOP has a one-seat majority, they get to have a Hunter Biden Committee and a Fauci Treason Committee and a House UnMAGA Activities Committee.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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Holman wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 11:50 am
Blackhawk wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 11:51 pm
Holman wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 10:11 pm If the Dems keep the Senate and the GOP barely takes the House, the GOP will immediately shut down the January 6 committee.
Maybe. After this week, the GOP has to be questioning the wisdom of flaunting the law to support Trump.
Nah. They'll make support for a Speaker contingent on going all-in and using committees in every political way.

Even if the GOP has a one-seat majority, they get to have a Hunter Biden Committee and a Fauci Treason Committee and a House UnMAGA Activities Committee.
True dat. But if no one paid any attention to a committee on an actual American insurrection, committee fatigue will set in, except for the Megaphone Media(TM). At least Hukster Carlton can avoid talking about Florida Man.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

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YellowKing wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 9:56 am I think the biggest story out of this entire election is that the fear that every close race would be disputed and litigated failed to materialize. It seems the "election fraud" narrative was a paper tiger. Many of these margins are much smaller than what Biden won the presidency with, and even with Congressional control on the line election-denier candidates just shrugged and accepted their loss. I'm stunned.

On the other hand, should I be surprised? We all knew these folks were just tossing red meat to the base by repeating Trumpism talking points. This election exposed them as the frauds they are - talking a big game, but not actually believing any of the nonsense they were spouting.
Happy to admit I was wrong on this to a degree. My guess was that Trump was just a catalyst for a lot of bad, anti-democratic behavior, and even without him actively in frame, the ‘movement’ would continue.

I seriously doubt people will just flip a switch and now no longer want more than anything to own the libs, but maybe they will go back to being less vocal about their nastier political desires.

Freedom caucus is still a thing, as are the remnants and ideas from the Tea Party ((Gadsden flaggers)
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 11:39 am
YellowKing wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 9:56 am I think the biggest story out of this entire election is that the fear that every close race would be disputed and litigated failed to materialize.
That's true, but for me the biggest story is that Nate Silver is still a clown. Perhaps he should have been tweaking models and learning things over the last 4+ years instead of becoming an expert in so many other topics. He's clearly a partisan hack at this point and I genuinely hope no one is taking him seriously anymore.
Who??

What party is he partisan…to? :D
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Alefroth »

coopasonic wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 9:04 am
Are you misreading the text?

"Trump won't ONLY officially announce"
I did.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by YellowKing »

Carpet_pissr wrote:Happy to admit I was wrong on this to a degree. My guess was that Trump was just a catalyst for a lot of bad, anti-democratic behavior, and even without him actively in frame, the ‘movement’ would continue.
My working theory is that Trump is one of the few people actually mentally ill enough to make the decisions he does. In his absence, you're left with a lot of people happy to talk the crazy to appeal to his base, but not so eager to actually walk it. Why? Because they're not Trump. They may hold some extreme political views, but they're not crazy enough to violate norms and laws that have been in place since the founding of the country.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Carpet_pissr »

YellowKing wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:11 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote:Happy to admit I was wrong on this to a degree. My guess was that Trump was just a catalyst for a lot of bad, anti-democratic behavior, and even without him actively in frame, the ‘movement’ would continue.
My working theory is that Trump is one of the few people actually mentally ill enough to make the decisions he does. In his absence, you're left with a lot of people happy to talk the crazy to appeal to his base, but not so eager to actually walk it. Why? Because they're not Trump. They may hold some extreme political views, but they're not crazy enough to violate norms and laws that have been in place since the founding of the country.
And most are not as clinically narcissistic to the extreme degree that he is (which thankfully has tripped him up in many cases).
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Jaymann »

Alefroth wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:08 pm
coopasonic wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 9:04 am
Are you misreading the text?

"Trump won't ONLY officially announce"
I did.
Poorly worded, I stopped reading at WON'T. However, Florida Man announcing will hopefully start a schism in the Repugnican party that will culminate in a Dem victory in 2024.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Holman »

YellowKing wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 2:11 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote:Happy to admit I was wrong on this to a degree. My guess was that Trump was just a catalyst for a lot of bad, anti-democratic behavior, and even without him actively in frame, the ‘movement’ would continue.
My working theory is that Trump is one of the few people actually mentally ill enough to make the decisions he does. In his absence, you're left with a lot of people happy to talk the crazy to appeal to his base, but not so eager to actually walk it. Why? Because they're not Trump. They may hold some extreme political views, but they're not crazy enough to violate norms and laws that have been in place since the founding of the country.
Even after they've seen that they can get away with it and that it has a pretty good chance of working?
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Yeah, I meant to add that it's probably way too early for victory laps. Hell, we don't even know if we have the House or not at this point. Like long COVID, It's probably going to take a few cycles to see what if any holdover Trump effects we suffer. Just to clarify, Trump is COVID here.

But as was mentioned, the simple fact that we didn't have the expected shitshow of election denying when the babies lost is HUGE. Yuge, even.

I stated quite a while ago that we were already off the cliff while many of youse were warning that we were approacing the cliff...so in my scenario, now we somehow miraculously grabbed onto an outcrop at terminal velocity, and are hanging on for dear life. We're in a freaking cartoon!! :D (which is a good thing, because that means that all kinds of absurd rescue scenarios are possible).
Last edited by Carpet_pissr on Sun Nov 13, 2022 3:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by YellowKing »

I'm not sure any of them have seen examples of Trumpism working. He lost his re-election. He's under criminal investigation. His candidates have been dropping like flies. None of his attempts at overturning election results have worked. His insurrection only resulted in hundreds of people being arrested. In the end, what has he actually gotten away with other than start a political movement that has failed spectacularly so far?

But yes, I don't for a second believe everything is now back to "normal" sunshine and lollipops. The Rs are not going to stop trying to seize power because of one bad midterm. But this election was a big step in bringing us back from the edge of full-blown authoritarianism, and exposed a lot of Trumpists as the fraudsters they were all along.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Election

Post by Carpet_pissr »

YellowKing wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 3:10 pm I'm not sure any of them have seen examples of Trumpism working. He lost his re-election. He's under criminal investigation. His candidates have been dropping like flies. None of his attempts at overturning election results have worked. His insurrection only resulted in hundreds of people being arrested. In the end, what has he actually gotten away with other than start a political movement that has failed spectacularly so far?
Maybe it's not what he got away with, but what he showed to future Trumps (what NOT to do, but THESE things are weak and exploitable in the system...poke HERE, but not THERE to get shit done). The biggest, material thing he did was JUDGES, but that was not his doing, really. The Federalist Society picked the overtly partisan turds they wanted him to nom, and Bob's your uncle/: welcome douchey entitled Frat Boy and the reincarnation of Phyllis Schlaffley to the SC.
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