2022 Midterm Election

[gilraen]

Should we be concerned about the 550 ballots “in cure for signature verification”?

Colorado uses BallotTrax so people that really cared about their ballot being counted would have signed up and have already been notified of the need to cure their ballot. If they hadn't already done that, it's unlikely that they will (although who knows, maybe seeing how close the race is will motivate them to check their ballot status). There's no way to predict statistically whether these were Boebert or Frisch voters.

[Kurth]

Should we be concerned about the 550 ballots “in cure for signature verification”?

Colorado uses BallotTrax so people that really cared about their ballot being counted would have signed up and have already been notified of the need to cure their ballot. If they hadn't already done that, it's unlikely that they will (although who knows, maybe seeing how close the race is will motivate them to check their ballot status). There's no way to predict statistically whether these were Boebert or Frisch voters.

Interesting. That sounds a lot less ominous. Thanks for the explanation!

[Zaxxon]

Should we be concerned about the 550 ballots “in cure for signature verification”?

Colorado uses BallotTrax so people that really cared about their ballot being counted would have signed up and have already been notified of the need to cure their ballot. If they hadn't already done that, it's unlikely that they will (although who knows, maybe seeing how close the race is will motivate them to check their ballot status). There's no way to predict statistically whether these were Boebert or Frisch voters.

Interesting. That sounds a lot less ominous. Thanks for the explanation!

It's actually very nice. I get a text/email when the county sends me my ballot and when it's counted. Also, reminders about upcoming elections, with a link to the sec of state site with voter info.

[msteelers]

Now can someone explain to me why Desantis won in a landslide? He doesn't strike me as someone with an extraordinary amount of charisma or oratory ability, and from what I've seen of him, he seems more of a culture warrior (eg, attacking covid restrictions, sending Texas undocumented immigrants to Martha's Vineyard, Don't Say Gay bill, etc).

Is the culture warrior stuff why he's so popular? Has he actually governed successfully? Had Florida just become super red? I know exit polls say he did well with Hispanics - has he developed a close relationship with their community? Or was Crist just a really awful candidate?

It's a little bit of everything.

DeSantis is charismatic in the same way Trump is. Many are repulsed by him, but others absolutely love him. He throws red meat to the base at every turn, and they reward him greatly.

Yes, I believe Florida has just become a very red state. You can look at the top level numbers and argue it's still a red-leaning purple state, but it's extremely rare that a democrat performs well in statewide elections. There has also been a huge influx of new residents to the state, and I think we're drawing in conservatives from some of the bluer states up north. I don't have any data to support that unfortunately.

Crist was a particularly awful candidate, and the democratic party here is essentially nonexistent. It really felt to me like DeSantis ran unopposed. There were very few direct marketing efforts that reached me from democrats. It was almost all republican. And I'm a registered democrat!

[Carpet_pissr]

We are definitely not out of the woods yet. Premature celebration, or people just happy
1. It’s not the predicted red wave
2. Poke in the eye for Trump, if not crippling political blow
?

Both of those are great IMO, but looks like we lose the house and could certainly still lose Senate.

Moral victories are nice, but technically winning is maybe more important in this particular case.

Silver lining: I do love that ‘we’ seemed to push back on the idea of moving the country further to the right though, if that’s how we can interpret the results so far.

Don't overlook the surprising and hugely significant victories won at state levels.

That’s great for people that live in those states I guess, but I’m in SC. So yeah.

[LordMortis]

There has also been a huge influx of new residents to the state, and I think we're drawing in conservatives from some of the bluer states up north. I don't have any data to support that unfortunately.

Your tax policy is a northern conservative love affair. Especially among the aging and the wealthy. Though according to link below most of your incoming population is actually from Texas, with NY being second.

https://florida-edc.org/blog/september- ... -they-come

Why? People have always cited the fact Florida has no state income tax, lower property taxes and lower cost of living. The Best Places’ Cost of Living index reports the national average cost of living is 100, Florida scores 102.8, California scores 139.9 and New York scores 120.5. The weather is often said to be a reason. But, the reasons are adding up. Covid-related loss of jobs, income, affordable housing and restrictions in cities are now reasons.

[msteelers]

There has also been a huge influx of new residents to the state, and I think we're drawing in conservatives from some of the bluer states up north. I don't have any data to support that unfortunately.

Your tax policy is a northern conservative love affair. Especially among the aging and the wealthy. Though according to link below most of your incoming population is actually from Texas, with NY being second.

Interesting, I wouldn't have guessed Texas. But my town is home to the NY Mets spring training, and the city advertises heavily to New Yorkers. So that's probably why it feels like everyone that moves here is from NYC.

As for taxes, it's the one thing all of the conservative people in my life tell me when I float the idea of moving out of this state. "Oh, you'll pay so much in taxes!".

[Grifman]

Murdoch is done with Trump:



It is as of yet to be seen as to whether FOX News can destroy the monster they created. I’m wondering what the take on OAN and Newsmax are right now. Are they still all in on Trump?

[Jaymann]

I can't wait to see video of Sucker Carlson flipping and pretending he saw through Florida Man (Uno) all along.

[Smoove_B]

I need someone to explain this:

Less than six months after the Uvalde shooting at Robb Elementary school, voters still preferred Republican incumbent Greg Abbott over his Democrat challenger Beto O'Rourke in the race for Texas governor.

Calls for gun reform and a change in Texas leadership echoed after the shooting left 19 children and two teachers dead in May.

Despite everything, Uvalde County voters overwhelmingly preferred Abbott over O'Rourke, with more than 60% of the vote going to Abbott.

[Unagi]

I can't imagine raising a family is some of these states.

[Pyperkub]

Murdoch is done with Trump:



It is as of yet to be seen as to whether FOX News can destroy the monster they created. I’m wondering what the take on OAN and Newsmax are right now. Are they still all in on Trump?

They'll come around with their audience. The base is too rabid regarding Trump.

[malchior]

Real billionaires hate it when fake billionaires have power over them. The establishment types are having their regular melt down over the world not bending flawlessly to their will.

[RunningMn9]

Semi-tangential side note. My daughter and I were in the live audience for the election episode of “The Problem with Jon Stewart” that will air tomorrow night for the seven people with Apple TV+. We had a blast, felt very much like The Daily Show. Man do I miss Jon Stewart.

[telcta]

Semi-tangential side note. My daughter and I were in the live audience for the election episode of “The Problem with Jon Stewart” that will air tomorrow night for the seven people with Apple TV+. We had a blast, felt very much like The Daily Show. Man do I miss Jon Stewart.

That’s really cool.

Many years ago my wife and I were in the audience for The Daily Show in NYC with Jon Stewart. While standing in line, we still didn’t know who the guest was. Soon there was whispering in line that is was going to be Robin Williams. And it was! It was such a crazy show and so much happened that was not aired. Robin Williams was promoting his movie RV.

[Holman]

DeSantis is charismatic in the same way Trump is. Many are repulsed by him, but others absolutely love him. He throws red meat to the base at every turn, and they reward him greatly.

He doesn't have Trump's gifts for showmanship, though. Every time Trump holds a rally, you can tell that he's enjoying himself, and that's contagious. Every third word out of his mouth is a lie, and sometimes you know he knows it, but that's all just part of the performance.

Have you seen a DeSantis speech? He's prickly. Rather than having fun, he often seems like he's trying to force out an especially dense poop. And (because, unlike Trump, he's afraid of saying the wrong thing), he sticks very obviously to the script.

There's a real risk that DeSantis can't capture the Trump magic, and the magic was the heart of the show.

[The Meal]

Sure CO-3 has some name appeal, but can I get a woot-woot for our performance here in CO-8? Last polling I saw before election day was 57/43-ish against the final result.

[Defiant]

Now can someone explain to me why Desantis won in a landslide? He doesn't strike me as someone with an extraordinary amount of charisma or oratory ability, and from what I've seen of him, he seems more of a culture warrior (eg, attacking covid restrictions, sending Texas undocumented immigrants to Martha's Vineyard, Don't Say Gay bill, etc).

Is the culture warrior stuff why he's so popular? Has he actually governed successfully? Had Florida just become super red? I know exit polls say he did well with Hispanics - has he developed a close relationship with their community? Or was Crist just a really awful candidate?

It's a little bit of everything.

DeSantis is charismatic in the same way Trump is. Many are repulsed by him, but others absolutely love him. He throws red meat to the base at every turn, and they reward him greatly.

Yes, I believe Florida has just become a very red state. You can look at the top level numbers and argue it's still a red-leaning purple state, but it's extremely rare that a democrat performs well in statewide elections. There has also been a huge influx of new residents to the state, and I think we're drawing in conservatives from some of the bluer states up north. I don't have any data to support that unfortunately.

Crist was a particularly awful candidate, and the democratic party here is essentially nonexistent. It really felt to me like DeSantis ran unopposed. There were very few direct marketing efforts that reached me from democrats. It was almost all republican. And I'm a registered democrat!

Thanks for this input.

Also found this in an article linked to in the Desantis vs Trump thread (which I should really read through rather than just skim a bit) which is in line with what you said and explains why they would be more conservative

“DeSantis won in Florida by such big numbers as so many of his voters were people who moved to Florida in recent years due to the pandemic – the vast majority were Republicans running from COVID restrictions,” the pollster explained. “DeSantis won’t have that going for him in a national matchup against Trump. Why people aren’t seeing that is a little shocking. Hyping this guy up is a mistake.”

[Zaxxon]

Sure CO-3 has some name appeal, but can I get a woot-woot for our performance here in CO-8? Last polling I saw before election day was 57/43-ish against the final result.

It's the biggest upset in the country by one analysis I read today, which had it as a <10% chance on Monday.

[Jaymann]

Sure CO-3 has some name appeal, but can I get a woot-woot for our performance here in CO-8? Last polling I saw before election day was 57/43-ish against the final result.

It's the biggest upset in the country by one analysis I read today, which had it as a <10% chance on Monday.

What election is this referring to?

[Zaxxon]

CO-8.

[El Guapo]

Sure CO-3 has some name appeal, but can I get a woot-woot for our performance here in CO-8? Last polling I saw before election day was 57/43-ish against the final result.

It's the biggest upset in the country by one analysis I read today, which had it as a <10% chance on Monday.

What election is this referring to?

The election in the CO-8 House district.

[Jaymann]

Nice result!

[Grifman]

Good news:

[Grifman]

Dems likely to hold Senate without GA:

[Grifman]

Geez, I want Lake to lose so badly:

[Grifman]

NY redistricting cost the Dems the House:

[waitingtoconnect]

NY redistricting cost the Dems the House:

And in Florida they gained 4 seats because of Republican gerrymandering. However in my opinion gerrymandering needs to stop. It’s anti democratic and it’s grossly hypocritical of the democrats to do it too.

[LordMortis]

And in Florida they gained 4 seats because of Republican gerrymandering. However in my opinion gerrymandering needs to stop. It’s anti democratic and it’s grossly hypocritical of the democrats to do it too.

This. I can't speak to other states but we're just now overcoming it in Michigan for now by successive brute force reactionary voting to an insane minority controlling a corrupt larger minority that had been controlling the state for a long time. It needs to stop everywhere not just here. Blue states. Red States. Purple states. Everywhere.

[malchior]

Another thing to consider is that those were net new GOP gerrymanders on top of existing gerrymanders. The House has been unrepresentative which is why some folks have been calling to increase the number of reps to help make it more difficult to continue to do so.

Edit: I was confused by that graphic - reading the thread that is the map of 2020 results. It is not the 2022 map. The story in NY was pretty bizarre because of all the twists and turns. But the boil down is that the NYS Democrats fucked redistricting up royally. It begins with Cuomo seating conservative judges to the top court all the way to the Democrats ignoring the special master because they thought their appeal to preserve their gerrymander would drag on past the point where ballots would have time to be changed.

[LordMortis]

... some folks have been calling to increase the number of reps to help make it more difficult to continue to do so.

I'm not sure that I call for it yet but I sure as would generally support it.

[Defiant]

Now waiting on Nevada results...

[Holman]

Kari Lake just (surprisingly) conceded.

[El Guapo]

Kari Lake just (surprisingly) conceded.

Are you talking about this? She hasn't conceded as far as I can tell, but thanks to Elon Musk we have these kinds of Twitter shenanigans.

[malchior]

Yeah - especially when her last social media blast is this retweet. Odds are she isn't going quietly no matter what.

[LordMortis]

I do sympathize with the idea that counting is crazy slow in AZ and that suggests enduring incompetence and possibly rising malfeasance. As to if that benefits the left or right or no one, I have no idea.

[malchior]

I do sympathize with the idea that counting is crazy slow in AZ and that suggests enduring incompetence and possibly rising malfeasance. As to if that benefits the left or right or no one, I have no idea.

Right. This needed to be fixed and Arizona didn't learn from 2020. Unfortunately the people trying to capitalize on the optics are the ones preventing the fixes. IIRC the election officials in Maricopa are ... Republicans. It's almost certainly part of the general attack on elections to introduce incompetence or fake unnecessary "election security" rigor that makes it look incompetent.

[Exodor]

This is exactly where I see disconnect. People are out there cheering that we might be able to continue with basic functions of Senate business. That's grim. And we have some immediate crises on the near horizon (debt ceiling as a prime example).

Going into Tuesday night we had a real chance of election deniers winning SoS races in NV, AZ and MI. Finichem in AZ had already talked about the possibility of setting aside entire county results if they were "questionable". This is what had me worried about the death of democracy. I don't think our system is prepared to handle that sort of obvious election meddling.

Let's say Finichem won. In 2024 a number of voters raise complaints about non-existent fraud in Maricopa county. Finichem sets those county results aside flipping the state to Trump. Kari Lake (in any scenario where FInichem won she would win the governorship) sends a slate of -R electors to Washington. How does our system handle this? There would be lawsuits and maybe the Supreme Court delays the final results but there could be weeks of chaos with Trump and the -D candidate both claiming victory.

Trump (or DeSantis) may win in 2024 without these sorts of schenanigans but that sort of fundamental breakdown of the democratic process likely won't happen now that most election deniers lost (and those that won are in states like AL where the 2024 result is already known).

[Zaxxon]

the people trying to capitalize on the optics are the ones preventing the fixes

Exactly this. Remember this any time you hear someone complaining about how long it's taking to determine winners.

[El Guapo]

the people trying to capitalize on the optics are the ones preventing the fixes

Exactly this. Remember this any time you hear someone complaining about how long it's taking to determine winners.

One thing is that Nevada (and I think Arizona?) accept mail in ballots that are mailed on election day and which arrive by a few days afterwards. As long as you do that (which I generally support) you're not going to be able to call a close election until at least the night of the receipt deadline for those ballots, which is going to be least a half week after election day.