Sinema Goes Independent

[malchior]

NY Times

Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, whose centrist approach pitted her against parts of President Biden’s agenda and made her the target of Democratic activists, is leaving the Democratic Party and registering as an independent, she announced on Friday in a series of interviews and in an essay in The Arizona Republic.

Ms. Sinema has not said whether she would caucus with the Democrats, as do two other independent senators, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine. She told Politico that she would not caucus with Republicans, and that her ideology and voting habits would not change.

The Democrats had claimed a 51-49 advantage in the Senate this week when Raphael Warnock prevailed in a runoff election in Georgia.

Writing in The Arizona Republic, she said that she had “never fit perfectly in either national party” and that the “loudest, most extreme voices continue to drive each party toward the fringes.”

[Octavious]

2 more years before she gets sent off into space? Now Manchins turn.

[malchior]

She probably still gets sent into space (edit 2: or maybe more likely doesn't run at all?) but this was the best move to make it slightly less likely for her. At one time I thought maybe a switch to Republican but she could never win a primary there. Arizona Democrats HATE her so she was toast on that front. My hot take is she is rolling the chaos dice on a 3-party Arizona run or hoping the Democrats won't split the race up.

Meanwhile she will make vague noises about key issues in the culture war while hiding behind Republican obstructionism. She will spoil Democratic efforts when she needs to while pretending to be the most serious person when in reality she is one of the nation's least serious politicians. She is the epitome of the disease we see in the Senate. It is all about nation damaging narrow pursuit of self-interest.

Edit: Also important to ground this as having limited impact on balance of power. She didn't say she'd caucus with the Democrats but hard lined on caucusing with the Republicans. Which is in her best interest. She preserves the balance of power and will try to extract some favors from each side.

[LordMortis]

2 more years before she gets sent off into space? Now Manchins turn.

Unless WV has changed demographics, launching Manchin in to space might not be the best. I think it was Guap who showed me that he definitely does note vote GOP. That said, Manchin is still the devil.

There is no evidence that Sinema is worth anything other than the pursuit of her own glory, though and no evidence that non GOP voters have no other reasonable choice. CNBC say that Arizona is largely an "independent" state but that doesn't mean the vote will go that way.

[Octavious]

I meant his turn on going independent. Hell this is the best way for them to extract what little power they can.

[El Guapo]

I meant his turn on going independent. Hell this is the best way for them to extract what little power they can.

malchior's right about Sinema's reasons for doing this. She was 100% doomed in a Democratic primary, but (probably) couldn't win a Republican primary either. A three way race with a split vote she could plausibly win. On top of that, by running as an independent incumbent instead, she forces the state Democrats to either run a candidate in a three way race (which creates a high risk of Senator Kari Lake), or to hold their nose and back her in the election.

As a matter of self-interest, it's probably one of the smartest things that she's done. Of course, she's playing with the national interest in doing so, but she obviously doesn't mind doing that.

Manchin doesn't have the same need to go independent. He's in an R+39 state, so there's no need or really ability for the state democratic party to topple him in a primary.

[Unagi]

I think malchior phrased it well: "nation damaging narrow pursuit of self-interest"

I'm so sick of it.

[Smoove_B]

"Independent"

[Jaymann]

Dictionary publishers are scrambling to put a new picture in the "B" section.

[Defiant]

Sinema is very disliked by both Democrats and Republicans (and isn't doing much better among independents). I don't think she'll do much better than third place in a three way race ( unless things dramatically change before the next election).

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/202 ... ryone.html

[El Guapo]

Sinema is very disliked by both Democrats and Republicans (and isn't doing much better among independents). I don't think she'll do much better than third place in a three way race ( unless things dramatically change before the next election).

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/202 ... ryone.html

Depends quite a bit on who the candidates are. Like if Kari Lake is the Republican nominee, and the Democratic nominee is someone at least perceived as a far left progressive, it's not out of the question that Sinema could win with something like 40% of the vote (say a 40-35-25 split).

In addition, even if her chance of winning a three way race is low (say 25%), that's substantially higher than her chances of winning the Democratic primary. Hence this is almost certainly her best shot at reelection.

[malchior]

I'm still mulling over whether she she wants to be re-elected. She is still probably the poorest Senator in the chamber. She is hanging around with millionaires and billionaires every day and her last disclosure lists around $100K in total assets. She very well could spend the next two years raising her profile to ride off into the 7-figure sunset as a "lobbyist" or maybe a corner office in a hedge fund. After all she has been the odd champion of the carried interest exemption. The only clear thing is that she is only out for herself. My strong guess is she'll navigate the chaos trade winds on a course to maximize her chances for either financial and/or political success. Probably in that order. We'll see.

Edit: Someone expresses it more colorfully but I like it - Congress-to-private sector pipeline. Well said...Fifty Shades of Whey (ahem).

[Defiant]

Sinema is very disliked by both Democrats and Republicans (and isn't doing much better among independents). I don't think she'll do much better than third place in a three way race ( unless things dramatically change before the next election).

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/202 ... ryone.html

Depends quite a bit on who the candidates are. Like if Kari Lake is the Republican nominee, and the Democratic nominee is someone at least perceived as a far left progressive, it's not out of the question that Sinema could win with something like 40% of the vote (say a 40-35-25 split).

In addition, even if her chance of winning a three way race is low (say 25%), that's substantially higher than her chances of winning the Democratic primary. Hence this is almost certainly her best shot at reelection.

I think you significantly overestimate her chances in a three way race, although I guess she would probably be screwed either way.

I think her best chance is if maybe the Democrats worry that she'll split the vote and cost them the election and decide not to run anyone against her? Though I don't think that will happen.

[El Guapo]

Sinema is very disliked by both Democrats and Republicans (and isn't doing much better among independents). I don't think she'll do much better than third place in a three way race ( unless things dramatically change before the next election).

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/202 ... ryone.html

Depends quite a bit on who the candidates are. Like if Kari Lake is the Republican nominee, and the Democratic nominee is someone at least perceived as a far left progressive, it's not out of the question that Sinema could win with something like 40% of the vote (say a 40-35-25 split).

In addition, even if her chance of winning a three way race is low (say 25%), that's substantially higher than her chances of winning the Democratic primary. Hence this is almost certainly her best shot at reelection.

I think you significantly overestimate her chances in a three way race, although I guess she would probably be screwed either way.

I think her best chance is if maybe the Democrats worry that she'll split the vote and cost them the election and decide not to run anyone against her? Though I don't think that will happen.

I wouldn't get too hung up on the (made up) numbers. The bigger point is that she was almost certainly doomed in a Democratic primary. She faces a tough election in a three way race, but her odds in that scenario are at least better than in a primary at this point.

And yeah, this does give her leverage to make a deal with the state party to begrudgingly support her reelection. I think the party would at least consider that deal, except that I'm not sure that they are capable of executing on it (i.e. I don't think that they could keep ambitious people from seeking the Democratic nomination for that seat).

[hepcat]

Dictionary publishers are scrambling to put a new picture in the "B" section.

You really think she’s a Bolshevik?

[Jaymann]

I was thinking bourgeoisie.

[malchior]

I am very shocked by this discovery. "Centrist" is as usual doing massive amounts of lifting.

CNBC

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema raked in campaign cash from corporate leaders at the end of last year as she prepared for a potential high-stakes 2024 reelection bid in the battleground state of Arizona.

Sinema, a centrist swing vote in the narrowly split Senate, switched her party affiliation from Democrat to independent in December. Real estate and private equity leaders, who have long helped to fill Sinema’s campaign coffers, contributed to a healthy cash haul for the senator in the final months of last year.

As Sinema considers whether to launch a bid for a second Senate term, the senator’s campaign entered 2023 flush with cash, with $8.2 million on hand, according to a new Federal Election Commission filing. Sinema’s campaign raised more than $800,000 during the last three months of 2022, and a portion of those funds came from affiliated committees, according to campaign filings that became public Tuesday.

Since October, Sinema has seen the support of leaders from private equity giants such as Blackstone
, along with the president of America’s largest business lobbying group, the Chamber of Commerce, according to the filing.

A spokeswoman for Sinema did not return a request for comment.

[LordMortis]

the Chamber of Commerce,

Independent my ass. The CoC are puppies and have spent a decade trying to pull puppies legal moves on behalf of the GOP here for over a decade. To the point if I see CoC on a business door, I debate if I should not walk in.

[Kurth]

the Chamber of Commerce,

Independent my ass. The CoC are puppies and have spent a decade trying to pull puppies legal moves on behalf of the GOP here for over a decade. To the point if I see CoC on a business door, I debate if I should not walk in.

“Puppies” . . .

[Kraken]

the Chamber of Commerce,

Independent my ass. The CoC are puppies and have spent a decade trying to pull puppies legal moves on behalf of the GOP here for over a decade. To the point if I see CoC on a business door, I debate if I should not walk in.

“Puppies” . . .

Once upon a time, a long time ago, someone said "puppies are bullshit," and a meme was born.

[Isgrimnur]

I suspect artistic license. Still, "puppies are bullshit!" is a great catchphrase.