O, the weather outside is...

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Max Peck
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

Post by Max Peck »

More likely it's just that conditions on the ground change. Forecasts can only work with the available data, and that can be changing all the time as new fires spring up or existing ones are brought under control or flare up again.

Right now, CTV is calling for the haze to return by the weekend. That doesn't feel like hopium...
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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Which only proves that it's an ongoing situation. We just have to sit-tight.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

Post by Kurth »

Sorry to all on the East coast experiencing this smoke. We've had our share out here in Portland and throughout the West coast, and it is absolutely the suck. Hope it clears for you soon.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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I was just out side, and man - it smells like someone lit up a big ol' Canada.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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Meanwhile, in non-wildfire related news :wink:, NWS has released info on that EF-1 tornado that hit in our county yesterday.

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Update: And the local news story, with video
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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Max Peck wrote: Thu Jun 08, 2023 3:04 pm More likely it's just that conditions on the ground change. Forecasts can only work with the available data, and that can be changing all the time as new fires spring up or existing ones are brought under control or flare up again.

Right now, CTV is calling for the haze to return by the weekend. That doesn't feel like hopium...
i guess i should have clarified... the forecasters tend to be too quick to jump on the good news, and hesitant to relay the bad.

always assume the smoke event is going to hang around longer than initially forecasted, or return after a clearing (or even repeated clearings). smoke forecasting is still relatively new and there are a lot of variables that still need to be worked out in the models.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

Post by Smoove_B »

Yeah, they really sold this (for us in NJ) as something that would likely be over by midday today (starting Tuesday night). It's now going to extend through tomorrow and possibly Saturday. They made it clear they're guessing at this point. The air is clearer, but the death particles are still out there.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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Max Peck wrote: Thu Jun 08, 2023 3:04 pm More likely it's just that conditions on the ground change. Forecasts can only work with the available data, and that can be changing all the time as new fires spring up or existing ones are brought under control or flare up again.

Right now, CTV is calling for the haze to return by the weekend. That doesn't feel like hopium...
it somehow wouldn't surprise me if the Canadian forecasters were a bit more grounded in reality than many of the American ones...

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jun 08, 2023 6:29 pm Yeah, they really sold this (for us in NJ) as something that would likely be over by midday today (starting Tuesday night). It's now going to extend through tomorrow and possibly Saturday. They made it clear they're guessing at this point. The air is clearer, but the death particles are still out there.
how many times have i heard this _exact same thing_ in the past.... don't be too disappointed if it should happen to extend beyond even that.

worth knowing is that smoke can enter - and leave - an area with speedy haste when the wind conditions are right. i've watched the air quality monitor during forecasted windshifts/front arrivals and it can go from orange to green within a few minutes.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

Post by Smoove_B »

I think part of the issue is that these fires are 400+ miles away. Trying to predict how smoke is going to move around the East Coast as it's shuttled and boxed in by various pressure fronts hasn't made it easy.

Strange times for sure. There was an article in the local news today indicating we smashed through all recorded air quality records in NJ. The highest levels (before this week) were recorded in 1980 (at a level of 286). There were parts of the state in the 480s last night. It's honestly incomprehensible to me; the idea that this could be "normal" for days or weeks at a time around the country or globe is insane.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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this is the best DIY indoor air filter - outperforms $400+ models!

https://cleanaircrew.org/box-fan-filters/
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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Yup. Created during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Simple and relatively cheap.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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Biden is now sending firefighters to Canada to help combat the fires. That's in addition to the already 600 who are there.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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Aren't you people supposed to be raking your forests or something?
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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Kraken wrote: Thu Jun 08, 2023 9:18 pm Aren't you people supposed to be raking your forests or something?
Massive failure in raking. I hope this doesn't translate into any raking mandates.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jun 08, 2023 7:20 pm Yup. Created during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Simple and relatively cheap.
haha, just saw this:

Social media helps invent, then circulate info on DIY air purifiers amid wildfire smoke
Some East Coast residents are learning about the box fan method for the first time, unlike their West Coast counterparts who are accustomed to wildfire smoke.
maybe 'resigned' is a better word. (not yet at 'numbed')
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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Typical Florida June (July?) day, hot with temps in the nineties and with a moderate westerly wind. Then a thunderstorm cell starts developing, the wind swings round and starts blowing really hard with a temp like the inside of a freezer :shock: . Then the lighting and thunder. In another hour it will be hot again :roll:

Meanwhile, there's trouble brewing in the eastern Atlantic: An early start to the Atlantic Cape Verde season?
A tropical wave about to emerge from Africa on Thursday was moving west to west-northwest at 15-20 mph. Although it is very early in the season to be watching such waves for development, the record-warm ocean temperatures present across much of the tropical Atlantic give this system a chance of development next week. Recent runs of the European model ensemble (ECMWF) have a number of members that develop the wave into a tropical cyclone as it approaches the Leeward Islands late next week (see Tweet by Philip Klotzbach below), and the 6Z Thursday operational run of the GFS model predicted development of a tropical storm in the June 23-24 period, a few hundred miles northwest of the Leeward Islands (though the 12Z Thursday run of the model did not develop the system). Tropical cyclones that form from westward-moving tropical waves that emerge from the coast of Africa have traditionally been referred to as Cape Verde-type storms; they are more properly called Cabo Verde-type storms now, since the island nation off the coast of Africa that they are named for is now called Cabo Verde.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

Post by jztemple2 »

Nope, not waiting for July, things are getting serious:

Enlarge Image
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is currently producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle portion of next week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

Post by Smoove_B »

Yeah, I thought I saw someone commenting that the ocean temps in that part of the globe looked more like September than mid-June. Buckle up.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

Post by Scuzz »

Middle of June and central California has yet to have a 100 degree day. If this is climate change I am cool with it.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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See you in fire season.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

Post by Jeff V »

Currently, where hot and humid comes from. I see clouds with lightning over the ocean, but it doesn't come ashore.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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Oyyy, if the wildfires weren't enough of a problem, nature had to throw in 10 tornadoes in a single day in Alberta on Wednesday. It's been said that before this, the most it had seen was 8 during the entire season. The climate is definitely changing, and I can only hope this isn't going to start becoming normalized. Strange times we live in.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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This is still something to watch out in the Atlantic:

Enlarge Image
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the next day or so. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic with further development through the middle part of the week. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

Post by jztemple2 »

Ladies and gentlemen, Tropical Depression 3!

Enlarge Image

Enlarge Image
Last edited by jztemple2 on Sun Jun 25, 2023 12:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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Forest fires are continuing. I thought we were through with the worst of the smoke, but today we got another air quality advisory, and it's pretty bad right now as I can smell the smoke just by sitting in the house. I can predict that those in the northern states like NY will get it by tomorrow if they haven't already. Using the firesmoke site I posted earlier, I can already see Vermont has gotten lots.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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The weather outside is smoky again. We're sitting at AQHI 10+ (very high risk) today, with the forecast dropping off to high risk overnight and moderate risk tomorrow. At least it's a bland greyish-white smoke this time rather than a hellscape orange-yellow.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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Yep, air is very smoky. The air was thick with haze yesterday.

Edit: Montreal has the worst air quality in the world right now.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

Post by Unagi »

Ugh, Chicago area is getting nailed today in surface smoke/ haze from the fires apparently.

There is a low fog(smog) in the air and a sweet 'burnt wood' smell to it. You can tell you should go back inside after walking the dog for about 10 minutes.

AQI 209

https://www.airnow.gov/?city=Chicago&st ... ountry=USA

This should be the city skyline:
Enlarge Image

normally something like:
Enlarge Image
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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It's miserable. Just looking out my window there's an almost sepia filter over everything outside. Twins are at camp this week (day camp, not overnight), and I'm glad we sent them to Roblox camp instead of some sports camp. We're keeping a portable air filter next to my oldest to try to keep him somewhat safe.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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Yeah, looking at the firesmoke site, the smoke appears to be going all the way down to the southern states. Sorry guys!
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

Post by Unagi »

Unagi wrote: Tue Jun 27, 2023 1:17 pm
AQI 209

AQI is 258 now
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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Yeah, it's the same way down here in the butt end of Indiana.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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Interesting side effect. I've seen a handful of people walking down the street who have rediscovered their masks!
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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To be fair, you can see the smoke and feel the effect of breathing it immediately. You can't see SARS-CoV-2 and it can take days to feel the effects, if you do at all.

I expect there is also a backlash along the line of "I can still smell the smoke, so masks don't work." in the we-don't-know-how-masks-work camp.

In other related news, I used a couple of procedure masks to jury-rig a better(?) filter for the external intake vent on my portable A/C unit. Plan A is still not to run the A/C on days when there is smoke, but I'm also curious to see how much crud the procedure masks will collect from the air.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

Post by LordMortis »

When I got out of my infusion today, it look like I was almost driving into a coming storm the entire drive home. The cloudiness was apparent at maybe 100 feet. Definitely the worst I've seen it.

Related to ILBs snark, I've also noticed that people working outside are sometimes wearing, gators/masks/balcavas when doing work that kicks up grime, grasses, or pollen; both professional and personal. I wonder where they learned how effective it is for removing particulates from the air. I never saw that sort of outdoor PPE usage in the before times.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

Post by Max Peck »

It might just be that more people have PPE of one sort or another on hand now, even if they've stopped using it to avoid contracting COVID. I know that dust masks with PM2.5 rated filters were relatively common prior to the pandemic, because they were easy enough to come by early on when any kind of real PPE (procedure masks or respirators) were essentially impossible to buy.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

Post by LordMortis »

Apparently air quality coming from Canada is bad enough that mom is having a hard time breathing. That was never her thing before. Of course, she wasn't part of the resistance to medical knowledge and advancement until the mid 2010s. Her R has bled into her P and her P has been doing a number on her health. :(

The storms did a number on a tree concurrent with turning the lawn from brown to overgrown, so I need to get out with a chainsaw so I can mow. Given the hard AQI warnings (currently at 209 and rising) and the noticeable visible hazard, I'm going to be joining people wearing a mask outside working today.

I live in a 1950s ticky tack sub and I can see the haze between looking out my back windows and the houses behind me this morning, maybe 50 feet?
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

Post by Blackhawk »

Morning.

Anyone know why everything smells like smoked moose today?
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

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Walking outside and sniffing the air gives you the impression that someone down the block has their fire pit going.
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Re: O, the weather outside is...

Post by LordMortis »

ImLawBoy wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2023 11:49 am Walking outside and sniffing the air gives you the impression that someone down the block has their fire pit going.
Yep. Today marks my first work with a chainsaw since breaking my arm. This week's storms left me with no back yard, but thankfully an in tact garage. Between being out of shape, a broken arm, and the air, I was good for about 15 minutes before saying, "it's probably wise to rest for a long time before continuing." I hope to cut the whole thing back today, but I've decided if I can't mow until Friday, I'm OK with that. Time to play games for an hour. :D
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