O, the weather outside is...

[Octavious]

Good thing that my wife no longer works for the insurance company that covers NYC. Woof...

[Alefroth]

Jeebus, that isn't even associated with a tropical storm, is it?

[Smoove_B]

Jeebus, that isn't even associated with a tropical storm, is it?

No, it's crazy. Lots of anecdotal reporting that it feels like what happened during Superstorm Sandy, but it's just an insane rainstorm.

[malchior]

I flew out of LGA this morning and it took me...3 hours to get there. Usually takes maybe an hour and change. I got there just before the streets became their river form. i didn't drive through any deep waters luckily but I did get hit with a "wave" and it partially tore a trim strip off my wheel well. What a crazy morning.

[jztemple2]

From Yale Climate Connections, Tropical Storms Philippe and Rina do the Fujiwhara tango

It’s double trouble for forecasters in the Atlantic waters a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands, where two tropical storms, Rina and Philippe, were spinning in close proximity, complicating the forecast for both storms. At 11 a.m. EDT Friday, Tropical Storm Philippe was located about 510 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, headed west-southwest at 2 mph, with top sustained winds of 45 mph and a central pressure of 1003 mb. Tropical Storm Rina was located about 550 miles to Philippe’s east, headed north-northwest at 6 mph, and also had top sustained winds of 45 mph and a central pressure of 1003 mb. Neither storm is predicted to be a threat to the Leeward Islands, but residents there should continue to monitor forecasts for these two hard-to-predict tropical storms.

Meanwhile....

King tides and Ophelia’s remains deliver coastal and urban flooding, especially in NYC area

Friday’s full moon is a “super moon” – when the moon is near perigee (its closest approach to the Earth). This configuration brings much of the U.S. East Coast “king tides” – some of the highest high tides of the year. The high tides are coming during strong onshore winds caused by a combination of high pressure over Atlantic Canada and low pressure from the remains of Tropical Storm Ophelia that have merged with another low pressure system, located offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast.

The high astronomical tides and onshore winds led to “minor” to “moderate” coastal flooding during the Thursday night and/or Friday morning high tide cycles at many sites along the U.S. East Coast, from Georgia to New York City; “major” flooding was observed at Charleston, South Carolina. Minor to moderate high tide flooding is expected to continue through the weekend at many locations along the East Coast, with major flooding predicted on Sunday morning along the North Carolina Outer Banks at Duck.

In the New York City region, only minor coastal flooding from the high tides has been occurring, but extremely dangerous flash flooding hit the region on Friday because of torrential rainfall exacerbated by moisture from the remains of Ophelia. These rains exceeded six inches in Brooklyn by late morning, and several more inches are possible into Friday night. Central Park reported 5.37 inches of rainfall from Thursday night through 11:51 a.m. EDT, with more rains in store. This gave New York City 13.72 inches of rain so far in September, making it the city’s fifth-wettest month in 155 years of recordkeeping and its second-wettest September behind only 16.85 inches in 1882.

[Kraken]

We're on the edge of Ophelia's rain bands and have had steady rain all day. Nothing dramatic, but our extremely wet summer is shaping up to become an extremely wet fall.

[Blackhawk]

I cannot remain silent any longer.

The thread title. It makes me crazy. Are we addressing the weather outside directly?

[ImLawBoy]

I always assumed it was the opening line to "Let It Snow".

[Blackhawk]

I always assumed it was the opening line to "Let It Snow".

Nope. The opening line to Let it Snow is, "Oh, the weather outside is..."

[Kraken]

I always assumed it was the opening line to "Let It Snow".

Nope. The opening line to Let it Snow is, "Oh, the weather outside is..."

The song reference is correct, but I prefer the poetic "O".

[Blackhawk]

That's very 19th-century of you.

[Kraken]

That's very 19th-century of you.

Thanks, I try to keep up. If you kids need to add the unnecessary "h" I'll try to get with it.

[jztemple2]

It's been raining since about mid-afternoon Saturday, but the heaviest rain was north of us till this morning when it drifted into our area. As might be expected, the soggy ground means the septic system is backing up. I've had about two years of occasional issues with it which various service folks have tried to convince me of it being this and that. The latest is that my drain field isn't draining very well, which would of course explain why when we've gotten 3+ inches of rain and the ground is sodden the septic backs up. But replacing the drain field is at least $7500, with a possible $2,500 additional if the state inspection mandates it. Since to pump out the septic tank is $400, I can have it pumped out a lot of times before that. The last time I had it pumped was three months ago which is OK, especially since this seems to be triggered by excessive rain.

[Rumpy]

We've been having some of the nicest Fall weather in perhaps decades. It's uncharacteristically warm for this time of year for us. Like an extended Indian Summer for us. Next week is supposed to drop back down to the usual cool weather for this time of year.

[jztemple2]

We've been having some of the nicest Fall weather in perhaps decades. It's uncharacteristically warm for this time of year for us. Like an extended Indian Summer for us. Next week is supposed to drop back down to the usual cool weather for this time of year.

Meanwhile, in Florida....

[Jeff V]

Near 90 here today, with promised highs in the 50's this weekend.

[Rumpy]

Maybe from Alberta, as I'm not aware of any current wildfires around here.

[jztemple2]

Damn, we're under a tornado warning

UPDATE: No funnel yet, but there is reported rotation in the atmosphere. And it's coming this way

UPDATE TO THE UPDATE: The NWS has let the tornado warning expire, but the Spectrum News meteorologist thinks this still needs to be watched and the warning will be reissued. By the way, this storm cell is heading towards the SpaceX Heavy rocket on the pad with the Psyche satellite onboard

[Blackhawk]

Is that uncommon there?

[jztemple2]

Is that uncommon there?

Tornado warnings? Yes, fairly rare.

[jztemple2]

We're going to get our first real cold front overnight. By Monday we'll be about ten degrees colder than average in the day and about fifteen degrees colder at night. The biggest change will be the drop in humidity which will be nice.

[em2nought]

We're going to get our first real cold front overnight. By Monday we'll be about ten degrees colder than average in the day and about fifteen degrees colder at night. The biggest change will be the drop in humidity which will be nice.

Good, felt like humidity was 100% most of the week. My sliders are sweating, but I'd thought it was a sprinkler atomizing off an overgrown bush. I was wrong. Almost wish they hadn't moved the sprinkler as now they're more likely to run over it and decapitate the poor thing.

[jztemple2]

Florida's tornado season is right around the corner

As the first rush of colder air arrives across the United States, Americans everywhere are preparing themselves for the upcoming winter.

Even though Florida escapes the bitter cold and snow that many up north see, we still have to prepare ourselves for our own winter weather pattern. One that might bring rounds of strong winds and tornadoes.

Florida historically has two severe weather seasons - one during the spring and one during the late fall into early winter months. Historically, spring provides a better shot for severe weather across the state.

Rounds of storms are common during the fall and early winter months as big bursts of cold arctic air head south toward the warmer, more humid air mass of Florida. This provides a perfect recipe for storms to become strong to severe.

I thought this was interesting:

Tornadoes may seem to be more common across states like Oklahoma, Texas or Mississippi, but Florida has a higher frequency of tornadoes per 10,000 square miles than any other state, according to the Florida Climate Center.

The coastline between Tampa Bay and Fort Myers holds the lead for the highest frequency of tornadoes with parts of the western panhandle in a close second.

[malchior]

Tropical Storm Otis intensifies from 50 knot Tropical Storm to 140-145 knot Cat 5 in 24 hours and may directly hit Acapulco, Mexico. Scary stuff.

[em2nought]

Tropical Storm Otis intensifies from 50 knot Tropical Storm to 140-145 knot Cat 5 in 24 hours

Whoa, that's fast! I thought the water would be a little cooler out there by now. I know it feels almost chilly in the pool from 8 PM to 10 PM finally.

[jztemple2]

For those who are weather geeks, check out this article from Yale Climate Connections; Nightmare scenario: Category 5 Hurricane Otis devastates Acapulco

In what the National Hurricane Center called a “nightmare scenario,” Hurricane Otis made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, at 1:25 a.m. CDT on Wednesday, October 25, as a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane with 165 mph winds and a central pressure of 923 mb. Otis unexpectedly intensified from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a Category 5 storm with 165 mph winds — an astonishing 105 mph increase — in the 24 hours before landfall. Rapid intensification is extremely dangerous because it leaves people little time to prepare for strong storms. The phenomenon is expected to happen more often as the climate warms.

My italics

The Acapulco airport stopped transmitting data about four hours before the eyewall of Otis moved over, but Isla Roqueta, an island located just offshore of the west side of Acapulco, recorded sustained winds of 81 mph, gusting to 133 mph, at 12:45 a.m. CDT. A peak gust of 135 mph occurred at 12:30 a.m. The minimum pressure at the station was 957 mb at the time of the highest winds, so the station missed experiencing the eye, which passed just south of the island. This means that the most heavily developed areas of Acapulco (population just over 1 million) received the more powerful right-front winds of Otis, perhaps setting a record for the largest number of people ever to experience the eyewall of a Cat 5 storm. The only comparable case may be Hurricane Andrew of 1992, which hit South Florida as a Cat 5 with 165 mph winds.

The full extent of damage from Otis was still unclear as of midday Wednesday. There will likely be massive disruption for hours if not days in terms of power disruption, transportation, and the like. More intense destruction may be limited to certain parts of the Acapulco area, depending on where the storm’s highest winds and water arrived. But as explained in the Tweet below, wind damage may end up causing the main destruction from Otis. Acapulco is not particularly low-lying, and the deep water offshore is not conducive for generating large storm surges. In addition, Otis was small and was a hurricane for only about 12 hours before landfall, which limited its storm surge potential.

[em2nought]

Scary how quickly Otis spun up.

[malchior]

[Unagi]

That before/after is odd, to my eye.

First, it was most certainly not shredded, it was gutted. The structure itself looks almost untouched, while every single window and the interiors seem to have been blown clean.

[gilraen]

Massive drop in pressure? Wind tunnel effect? The building looks like something you see in a warzone, where windows are all busted due to explosions.

[malchior]

That's right on the beach. My guess is the contents of the entire building was swept out the building by the 160 knot winds. There are aerials of just mounds of debris everywhere in the resorts.

[jztemple2]

[Blackhawk]

O, the weather outside is...

...cold.

I have, as of today, called the official end of window weather for the year. It was entirely too brief this time - we only had about four weeks of weather in the Goldilocks zone.

[Pyperkub]

An interesting article on how the forecasts missed Otis, and the "unprecedented" combination that led to its growth (unprecedented until now...):

None of the best, most reliable tropical modeling had Otis as a hurricane, let alone a Category 5 storm. To put it bluntly, this was an absolutely catastrophic forecasting failure.

How did this happen?

The first question is why Otis did what it did. It was probably a combination of a couple of things. First, Otis was placed ideally in an environment that facilitated constructive wind shear....

...In this case, Otis was optimally placed in the right entrance region of the jet stream...\

...Otis wasn't exactly square in the middle of the right entrance region, but it was close. Additionally, Otis tracked right over an area of 31°C sea surface temperatures, likely warmed by a combination of El Nino and climate change.

This rich, warm water did not hurt matters at all...

...Otis' smaller size may have also contributed. My hunch is also that if Otis had tracked, say, 30 or 40 miles east or west of where it was, it would not have gone off to the races like this. It was simply perfectly placed to optimize intensification.

Summing up:

It feels like this was a combination of bad luck, bad timing, and bad placement. And it just so happened that a metropolitan area with over 1 million people was in the way.

It's easy to sit here and pontificate about this or to say that weather forecasts are often wrong. But they're not. They're often right. With hurricanes, forecasting has improved by leaps and bounds in the last 20 to 30 years. Perfect? No, but often more than acceptable. A failure like this shocks us because we aren't actually used to forecast failures of this magnitude anymore. 100 years ago? Sure, this was fairly routine. But in the 2020s, we have standards and expectations for weather forecasts, and clearly this was a shock to the system.

[jztemple2]

Just a reminder that the hurricane season is still active... A tropical storm may emerge in the Caribbean late this week

A disturbance in the Caribbean is likely to evolve into a tropical depression or tropical storm by late week, perhaps bringing dangerously heavy amounts of rain to Hispaniola and eastern Cuba as it heads northeast. In its Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 1 p.m. EST Monday, the National Hurricane Center gave this system a 70% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression in the seven-day period through Monday, November 20.

The new system is expected to emerge in the southwest Caribbean Sea, where low pressure often develops toward the end of hurricane season in October or November. As of Monday, there was little happening in this area other than scattered showers and thunderstorms (convection) associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The National Hurricane Center had a near-zero chance of development through Wednesday. However, long-range forecast models are in increasing agreement that a surface low will take shape by late this week east of Nicaragua and then move northeastward through the Caribbean.

[Unagi]

I always think that maps like this should include an additional black-lined blob that reaches out to include a bit of Alabama.

[jztemple2]

Still busy around here, including a tropical feature right offshore:



And Florida is getting a lot of rain right now.

[jztemple2]

Only a few days to go in the 2023 hurricane season and except for a minor disturbance off the Azores, things look quiet. Time now to start hearing about those winters storms from folks further north!

[disarm]

Only a few days to go in the 2023 hurricane season and except for a minor disturbance off the Azores, things look quiet. Time now to start hearing about those winters storms from folks further north!

We don't speak of such things!

[Jaymon]

past two nights have froze here in Oregon. This year I remembered to remove the hoses!
We also got a heated water dish for the porch. birds and strays will get liquid water from us.