Afghanistan finally moves into the Lose column

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:01 am

On an opposing note there's this opinion:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/14/opinions ... index.html

I found this to be of note:

In 2001, there were fewer than nine hundred thousand children, almost all boys, in school. Today, there's over 9.2 million children, forty percent of which are girls, in school. Life expectancy has gone from 44 years to 60 years."

The problem though is one I noted to myself when we got involved. As long as guerillas have a safe haven, they cannot be defeated. They can control the pace of battle. If the Taliban had to hide in Afghanistan, we could slowly and surely eliminate them. But as it is now, if things got too hot, they can withdraw to Pakistan, gather more recruits and supplies and come back. This was never going to work unless Pakistan got control of their border but they pretty much leave these tribes to govern themselves as they consider the area ungovernable.

raydude · Post by **raydude** » Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:03 am

Grifman wrote: ↑Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:01 am On an opposing note there's this opinion:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/14/opinions ... index.html

I found this to be of note:

In 2001, there were fewer than nine hundred thousand children, almost all boys, in school. Today, there's over 9.2 million children, forty percent of which are girls, in school. Life expectancy has gone from 44 years to 60 years."

The problem though is one I noted to myself when we got involved. As long as guerillas have a safe haven, they cannot be defeated. They can control the pace of battle. If the Taliban had to hide in Afghanistan, we could slowly and surely eliminate them. But as it is now, if things got too hot, they can withdraw to Pakistan, gather more recruits and supplies and come back. This was never going to work unless Pakistan got control of their border but they pretty much leave these tribes to govern themselves as they consider the area ungovernable.

I agree with you and will add two phrases:

Mission creep and economically unsustainable

Mission creep - the original mission in Afghanistan was to get the people that were involved in 9/11. We did that. The mission expanded to "keeping the people that did 9/11 from coming back". Preventing a result does not give you many options beyond "staying there forever" and that was never part of the original mission.

Economic unsustainability - the article draws a comparison to South Korea. And then conveniently forgets to mention that the investment in South Korea of permanent US military presence has paid off in spades with economic trade between the US and South Korea. Something that will take decades for Afghanistan, if ever.

I agree with the author - It is unfortunate for the people of Afghanistan that we are pulling out. It will create a humanitarian crisis as the country devolves into civil war and it will be hard for the people who found freedom to grow and express themselves to go back under Taliban rule. If Afghanistan was a neighbor and I was the US I be there all the time helping out. But countries are not people. The cold hard truth is that national treasure is going into a black hole over there when it could be used to improve our infrastructure here. The US had to include economic viability, strategic value, and force sustainability into its decision-making process.

If Wikipedia is to be believed then apparently Pakistan is the major source of the Taliban's power. Perhaps a shift in focus from Afghanistan to put pressure on Pakistan to stop supplying the Taliban would pay better dividends than keeping troops there indefinitely.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:08 pm

...in which Beau tries to read between the lines.

Little Raven · Post by **Little Raven** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:34 am

I Met a Taliban Leader and Lost Hope for My Country

As men continue to bicker over the future and control of Afghanistan, I have already lost my home and my country. I worked in Kabul as a television journalist for 12 years, and finally left in November after threats to my life.

I know how the Taliban plan to shape the future of my country, and their vision of my country has no space for me.

...

The Taliban see their Islamic government as duty bound to safeguard Muslim society from corruption and moral decadence, which they blame on the presence of women in public spaces, including universities and offices. They want to reduce us to bearing children.

...

The rights and status of Afghan women, their access to education and employment, and the creation of a relatively free media have become symbols of what is possible in Afghanistan. With the United States and its allies changing the goal posts, those freedoms are now imperiled.

I can't disagree with anything she's saying....but I'm not sure that changes anything, either.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:46 pm

Yesterday the US handed over the keys to Bagram Air Base, effectively completing the American withdrawal. "They" say that the government will fall in 6 months to 2 years. This NYT piece makes it sound like 6 months is optimistic.

More than a quarter of the country’s 421 districts have been seized by the insurgents since early May, in a sweeping campaign that has largely targeted Afghanistan’s north and even seen some provincial capitals besieged by Taliban fighters.

In some places, government forces are surrendering without a fight, often because they have run out of ammunition and the government doesn’t send more supplies or reinforcements.

The tactical mismanagement of the Afghan military and police forces is a rerun on a smaller scale of losing battles fought against insurgent groups for 40 years.

“You have a highly centralized military fighting a war against a highly decentralized insurgency, fighting an irregular war,” said Tamim Asey, a former deputy minister of defense who now leads a think tank in Kabul. “That is a recipe for disaster.”

When reporters asked Biden what he thought about that, he preferred to think happy thoughts about the 4th and set aside gloom until next week.

But the questions that appeared to irk Biden the most focused on Afghanistan and concern that its government might collapse after the United States completes its withdrawal there. On Friday U.S. officials said that troops had officially left Bagram Airfield and the facility was handed over to the Afghan National Security and Defense Force.

“We're on track exactly as to where we expected to be,” Biden said. "There will still be some forces left, but it is a rational drawdown with our allies. So there is nothing unusual about it."
...
Later in the afternoon White House press secretary Jen Psaki discouraged people from interpreting Biden's comments as being dismissive of the concerns about Afghanistan.

"I think what he was trying to convey to all of you is that he is heading into July Fourth weekend, a weekend for family, a weekend to celebrate America and that he was ready to be done answering questions," Psaki said. "It wasn’t related to Afghanistan.”

Alefroth · Post by **Alefroth** » Sat Jul 03, 2021 2:12 am

How long before the right starts accusing him of cutting and running?

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sat Jul 03, 2021 6:56 am

Long-term the Chinese are of course trying to sweep in and offer the Taliban access to funding via Belt and Road. The Taliban have also been apparently cozying up to the Russians. It's a good match either way. China would love to be able to use them for logistics and the Russians wouldn't mind access to the Taliban-announced TAPI pipeline to link up Russian energy with Pakistan & India. Both of those nations don't give a shit about human rights so win/win all around.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:23 pm

A chap who knows stuff explains why Afghanistan ended up in the Lose column.

Why did we lose? I’ve been trying to answer that question for 12 years, starting in 2009 when I was a civilian officer in the far-off district of Garmser in Helmand Province. I continued to ponder the question in 2013 and 2014, when I served as political adviser to Gen. Joseph Dunford, commander of all U.S. forces in Afghanistan, and later as Dunford’s senior adviser when he was chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. As I traveled the country with senior U.S. military commanders, I saw that in battle after battle, numerically superior and better-supplied soldiers and police were being defeated by poorly resourced and unexceptionally led Taliban — a dynamic certain to eventually doom the Afghan government unless the United States were to stay indefinitely.

I have found no single answer to why we lost the war. While various explanations address different parts of the puzzle, the one I want to highlight here can perhaps be seen most clearly in the conversations I’ve had with the Taliban themselves, often in their native Pashto. “The Taliban fight for belief, for janat (heaven) and ghazi (killing infidels). … The army and police fight for money,” a Taliban religious scholar from Kandahar told me in 2019. “The Taliban are willing to lose their head to fight. … How can the army and police compete?”

The excerpt is worth 10 minutes of your time.

dbt1949 · Post by **dbt1949** » Wed Jul 07, 2021 8:27 am

In Afghanistan as in Viet Nam the population is made up of peasants who barely eke out a living. No matter who is in charge they'll be doing the same thing. So whoever can threaten the most wins. The corruption sure doesn't help and I expect the Taliban, like the NVA, has less corruption than the US backed governments. And of course the lack of faith in the US backed governments.

Little Raven · Post by **Little Raven** » Sat Jul 17, 2021 1:09 am

*sigh*

The Taliban, fighting with Afghanistan forces to take control of a large part of the war-torn country, has issued a statement ordering local religious leaders to give them a list of girls over 15 years of age and widows under 45, reports have said. According to reports, the Taliban has promised for them to be married to their fighters and taken to Pakistan's Waziristan, where they will be converted to Islam and reintegrated.

Victoria Raverna · Post by **Victoria Raverna** » Sat Jul 17, 2021 1:43 am

malchior wrote: ↑Sat Jul 03, 2021 6:56 am Long-term the Chinese are of course trying to sweep in and offer the Taliban access to funding via Belt and Road. The Taliban have also been apparently cozying up to the Russians. It's a good match either way. China would love to be able to use them for logistics and the Russians wouldn't mind access to the Taliban-announced TAPI pipeline to link up Russian energy with Pakistan & India. Both of those nations don't give a shit about human rights so win/win all around.

China care enough about human rights to release a report on human right violation in US:

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-0 ... 832301.htm

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Sat Jul 17, 2021 1:56 am

Taking up the role that the Soviets filled during the Cold War.

raydude · Post by **raydude** » Sat Jul 17, 2021 6:58 am

Little Raven wrote: ↑Sat Jul 17, 2021 1:09 am *sigh*
The Taliban, fighting with Afghanistan forces to take control of a large part of the war-torn country, has issued a statement ordering local religious leaders to give them a list of girls over 15 years of age and widows under 45, reports have said. According to reports, the Taliban has promised for them to be married to their fighters and taken to Pakistan's Waziristan, where they will be converted to Islam and reintegrated.

I wonder why, given a taste of what it is like in a more secular regime with more freedom for women, more Aghanistan women and their families don't fight back.

dbt1949 · Post by **dbt1949** » Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:00 am

Who says they're not? Not much they can do about it.

raydude · Post by **raydude** » Sat Jul 17, 2021 10:03 am

dbt1949 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:00 am Who says they're not? Not much they can do about it.

Let me put it another way. In a country where it seems to be pretty easy to get your hands on an AK, the people who believe in the ideology of hate are willing to fight for their hate, while the people who do not seem unwilling to fight for non-hate.

Little Raven · Post by **Little Raven** » Sat Jul 17, 2021 10:54 am

raydude wrote: ↑Sat Jul 17, 2021 10:03 amLet me put it another way. In a country where it seems to be pretty easy to get your hands on an AK, the people who believe in the ideology of hate are willing to fight for their hate, while the people who do not seem unwilling to fight for non-hate.

The "ideology of hate" offers young men power and wives on earth and eternal glory in heaven. What does non-hate offer them?

Victoria Raverna · Post by **Victoria Raverna** » Sat Jul 17, 2021 11:07 am

raydude wrote: ↑Sat Jul 17, 2021 10:03 am
dbt1949 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:00 am Who says they're not? Not much they can do about it.
Let me put it another way. In a country where it seems to be pretty easy to get your hands on an AK, the people who believe in the ideology of hate are willing to fight for their hate, while the people who do not seem unwilling to fight for non-hate.

By that you mean USA?

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun Jul 18, 2021 6:06 am

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Sat Jul 17, 2021 1:56 am Taking up the role that the Soviets filled during the Cold War.

Yup. Though "we" made it easy for them by having tons of attack surface. Everything in that release by the Chinese is just an accurate accounting of the facts. It also doesn't change that it was compiled in an effort to try to take heat off their own human rights problems rather than address them.

Montag · Post by **Montag** » Wed Aug 04, 2021 1:25 pm

I find it morbidly hilarious the Chinese are in talks with the Taliban. Re-education camps coming your way soon! CNN: Chinese officials and Taliban meet in Tianjin as US exits Afghanistan.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/29/china/ch ... index.html

Little Raven · Post by **Little Raven** » Sun Aug 08, 2021 12:44 pm

3 capitals in one day.

Taliban fighters captured another northern provincial capital on Sunday afternoon, local officials said, marking the third city to fall to the insurgent group in a single day.

The fighters had been contained at the gates of Taliqan, the capital of Takhar Province, since June. But as the Kunduz city center fell to the Taliban on Sunday, the insurgents moved into Taliqan, just a few miles away, pushing back government forces there in a bout of vicious fighting.

By sunset, the Taliban had seized the police headquarters and the provincial governor’s office, said an Afghan official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the developing situation.

Keramatullah Rustaqi, a Takhar provincial council member, said that the city had fallen to the Taliban and that “security forces left Taliqan to retreat to Farkhar,” a neighboring district.

Jesus Christ.

dbt1949 · Post by **dbt1949** » Sun Aug 08, 2021 2:24 pm

Was there any doubt?

Combustible Lemur · Post by **Combustible Lemur** » Sun Aug 08, 2021 2:54 pm

dbt1949 wrote:Was there any doubt?

Seriously, critics of the war predicted this day one. LOUDLY.

But, imoh this also makes it even more disgraceful that the refugee extraction is being done as an afterthought. You assholes had twenty years to plan how to protect our allies and friends.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

Drazzil · Post by **Drazzil** » Sun Aug 08, 2021 4:19 pm

Victoria Raverna wrote: ↑Sat Jul 17, 2021 1:43 am
malchior wrote: ↑Sat Jul 03, 2021 6:56 am Long-term the Chinese are of course trying to sweep in and offer the Taliban access to funding via Belt and Road. The Taliban have also been apparently cozying up to the Russians. It's a good match either way. China would love to be able to use them for logistics and the Russians wouldn't mind access to the Taliban-announced TAPI pipeline to link up Russian energy with Pakistan & India. Both of those nations don't give a shit about human rights so win/win all around.
China care enough about human rights to release a report on human right violation in US:

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-0 ... 832301.htm

I've skimmed it; they aren't wrong.

hepcat · Post by **hepcat** » Sun Aug 08, 2021 8:30 pm

No, they read American news and copied over some of the headlines.

While everything they wrote may have a grain of truth at the very least, it’s like Hitler complaining about anti-semitism in France. Sure, we have a problem with systemic racism, but unlike China we’re not actually trying to exterminate entire ethnic or religious groups.

As for bipartisan political unrest, it’s easy to avoid it when you’re a dictatorship.

And anything they write about the pandemic is suspect given the fact that they jailed the person who first tried to bring it to their attention. Then they spent months suppressing any news on its progress.

We have problems, sure. But thank god we’re not China.

Drazzil · Post by **Drazzil** » Mon Aug 09, 2021 1:54 am

hepcat wrote: ↑Sun Aug 08, 2021 8:30 pm No, they read American news and copied over some of the headlines.

While everything they wrote may have a grain of truth at the very least, it’s like Hitler complaining about anti-semitism in France. Sure, we have a problem with systemic racism, but unlike China we’re not actually trying to exterminate entire ethnic or religious groups.

As for bipartisan political unrest, it’s easy to avoid it when you’re a dictatorship.

And anything they write about the pandemic is suspect given the fact that they jailed the person who first tried to bring it to their attention. Then they spent months suppressing any news on its progress.

We have problems, sure. But thank god we’re not China.

Older article but....

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... ility.html

hepcat · Post by **hepcat** » Mon Aug 09, 2021 7:33 am

Pay walled

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Thu Aug 12, 2021 1:51 pm

It's only a matter of time before Afgahnistan is under full Taliban control again.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Aug 12, 2021 5:17 pm

Sure looks like we need to get out of there earlier than later if it is going to collapse. Safety wise it is key to protect our diplomats and politically this might be very bad for the Biden administration. The pace of the collapse is stunning.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Aug 12, 2021 5:21 pm

We've been there for 19 years. Biden has been CinC for six months.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Aug 12, 2021 5:33 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Thu Aug 12, 2021 5:21 pm We've been there for 19 years. Biden has been CinC for six months.

The worry I have is Americans trapped, the embassy falls, a mass casualty event, etc. Something the cynical Republicans will pin on him.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Aug 12, 2021 5:59 pm

Like they need a reason.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:07 pm

That the Taliban is capable of this so quickly means that we were never going to be able to defeat them militarily.

*Maybe* it would have been possible to engage them diplomatically under the umbrella of American military protection, but... isn't that what we've been trying and failing to do for the past ten or dozen years?

I'm reminded of a post from 2010:

Holman wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2010 10:01 pm Gorbachev: Afghanistan is America's Afghanistan.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:12 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Thu Aug 12, 2021 5:59 pm Like they need a reason.

Haha. Fair enough.

Holman wrote: ↑Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:07 pm That the Taliban is capable of this so quickly means that we were never going to be able to defeat them militarily.

Or that any hope that the Afghani army was ever going to come together was realistic.

Alefroth · Post by **Alefroth** » Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:43 pm

They seem to be very well supplied. Have we ever made a serious attempt to go after their funding?

$iljanus · Post by **$iljanus** » Thu Aug 12, 2021 7:35 pm

Alefroth wrote: ↑Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:43 pm They seem to be very well supplied. Have we ever made a serious attempt to go after their funding?

And this is why you shouldn't do drugs kids:

https://theconversation.com/the-taliban ... tan-147411

The Taliban has a pretty diverse income portfolio.

Little Raven · Post by **Little Raven** » Thu Aug 12, 2021 10:58 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Thu Aug 12, 2021 5:33 pmThe worry I have is Americans trapped, the embassy falls, a mass casualty event, etc. Something the cynical Republicans will pin on him.

Even if none of that happens, what most certainly WILL happen to the women of Afghanistan and anyone who helped us in the last 20 years will make for terrible press.

Can't be helped, but it's going to be very nasty viewing.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Thu Aug 12, 2021 10:58 pm

When Biden formalized the US withdrawal timetable, pundits said our puppet regime would hold on for 6 months to 2 years. Now it looks like 6 weeks is way too optimistic. It's really a stunning failure. But would it have ended any differently if we'd stayed for another 10 years?

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Aug 12, 2021 11:57 pm

Kraken wrote: ↑Thu Aug 12, 2021 10:58 pm When Biden formalized the US withdrawal timetable, pundits said our puppet regime would hold on for 6 months to 2 years. Now it looks like 6 weeks is way too optimistic. It's really a stunning failure. But would it have ended any differently if we'd stayed for another 10 years?

Yeah, that's the big question. I would guess not, though it's impossible to say for sure.

Victoria Raverna · Post by **Victoria Raverna** » Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:02 am

Maybe if US tried to work with Taliban instead of fighting them if that was possible, it'll be better.

If it is not possible to win against an enemy, maybe make peace with that enemy is better choice.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:13 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Thu Aug 12, 2021 11:57 pm
Kraken wrote: ↑Thu Aug 12, 2021 10:58 pm When Biden formalized the US withdrawal timetable, pundits said our puppet regime would hold on for 6 months to 2 years. Now it looks like 6 weeks is way too optimistic. It's really a stunning failure. But would it have ended any differently if we'd stayed for another 10 years?
Yeah, that's the big question. I would guess not, though it's impossible to say for sure.

The Taliban was pretty rag tag for awhile but they really got their act together over the last few years. Then Trump took a lot of pressure off them and they almost immediately grabbed power wherever they could. They intelligently positioned themselves for our exit. Still, if we weren't leaving and still maintained air superiority? We could probably stave them off indefinitely - everything is extremely remote. Moving anywhere there even on foot often exposes you.