Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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YellowKing
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

Post by YellowKing »

We'll see how doubling down on lies and Trumpism works out in the long term. I don't think it ends well for them.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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The problem is the old Keynes quote
But this long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task, if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us, that when the storm is long past, the ocean is flat again.
I don't see this working out well for them, but when? I don't see this working out well for masses of all of us, enduring the effects of between now and when it doesn't work out well for them.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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I have to wonder if her father still has any pull whatsoever, and if he's as vindictive as I suspect he was during his time in office. I would love to see a political version of Taken reenacted now.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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Holman wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 6:42 pm
Jaymann wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 6:26 pm What if these creeps "canvased" a household and were told:

You have no authority to interrogate us. Fuck you and the pickup truck you rode in on.
Would you do that if you knew Republicans controlled the county sheriff's department? Or if your employer were a connected GOP donor?
Yes because if they made the content of my ballot known to anyone, they'd be committing a felony. And yes, I'd tell them to go take a leap.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

Post by Grifman »

Well, the party finally answered our question about Trumpism. At every possible point where the Republican have come to a fork in the road, they've taken the wrong one - the tapes scandal, two impeachments, the election loss, Jan 6 insurrection, they've always chosen Trump. It really is insane. They've insured that even if Trump doesn't run, they'll continue to get Trump-lites as candidates. Short term this may work but IMHO, long term this is a losing strategy.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

Post by Holman »

Grifman wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 11:38 am Short term this may work but IMHO, long term this is a losing strategy.
2024 is coming, and they only have to win once to make it forever.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

Post by Smoove_B »

Yup. To me, it feels like they know this is their last attempt; failure to secure political power in 2022 and 2024 means the GOP dies. But if they can secure enough political power? If they can re-take the Presidency? It's lights out for the rest of us.

I've said it before - the GOP is a party in its death throes. They've never been more dangerous than they are right now.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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When nearly half the country support them and they have the power of the tyranny of the minority in their favor, I hardly call it death throes. The GOP is far from dying. It should be shrinking while they try to become an only "us" system of government, a la every other despotic system in the modern world. I say should because even in 2012, if you told me nearly half of the US would support over turning elections and excuse an attempted insurrection at the Capitol building, I would stop hearing you, and looked for a way to excuse myself.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

Post by Alefroth »

Kraken wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 9:50 pm We probably don't agree on anything except that truth matters.
I think you need to make it more specific than that, since she believes in the socialist boogeyman.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

Post by Smoove_B »

I'd argue whatever the GOP was (circa 2015) is not what they transitioned into right now. That's why I say they're in their death throes - because whatever is left of pre-2015 GOP is clearly dying. Or maybe it just officially died with what they did to Liz Cheney. It's also why I'm confused by anyone that still says they're a voting (R) or proudly identifies as (R). I can only assume then they agree completely with the current platform and all its idiocy - even if they think they're still "small government' or "lower taxes" - whatever bullshit they need to tell themselves to vote (R).

In that respect, it's reminding me very much of my extended family members that strongly identify as Catholic and refuse to acknowledge any other flavor of Christianity. "Those are people rules" they'll say as they hand over money every week at mass, helping to perpetuate all kinds of horrific behaviors internally and funding hate externally. The idea that they should perhaps associate with another denomination is unthinkable, despite knowing full well what that association entails.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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Well if you flip it around and see this as a winning strategy, then you're saying that somehow the country will continue to elect Republicans to Congress and the White House in greater numbers than Democrats. Which to me would imply that a majority of the electorate will be supporting their "policies." Given their dismal polling amongst anyone except card-carrying Republicans, I'm unsure how that trend materializes.

Yes, I know. Gerrymandering, voter suppression, etc. etc. But winning elections by the skin of your teeth through shenanigans can only take you so far. The electorate as a whole is not getting more conservative, and purple states are getting bluer, not redder.

And yes, there is the possibility that the GOP takes the House and Senate, and squeak out the Presidency in 2024. Then they pass a bunch of draconian laws to cement their power forever and ever, amen. It's a worst case scenario, and it's a possibility. But it's only one of many possibilities, it's in no way a guarantee. With the social upheaval we've seen recently that has moved the progressive needle ever forward, they are facing a stiff headwind.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

Post by Kraken »

Tomorrow more than 100 Republican grandees will issue 13 demands and threaten to form a new party if the GOP doesn't meet them.
A push to channel anti-Trump sentiment with the "Never Trump" movement in the spring of 2016 was largely unsuccessful at the time, and none of the people backing this latest effort are serving as elected Republicans. However, it comes as Trump's pull within his party appears to have lessened. A recent NBC News poll found that 44 percent of Republicans said they support Trump more than the GOP, compared to 50 percent who said they support the GOP more than the former president.
Maybe reasonable Republicans will coalesce around this nucleus.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

Post by LordMortis »

I need you to be right. I can see it both ways but the trend I am seeing is broadening and the ability to hold power while consolidating the power holders much faster than the red is losing its brightness. I've been wrong enough on so much in the last decade that I know my vision is far from good and I might not even be looking at the picture I think I'm seeing. But my being wrong since at least 2015 has been so much on underestimating the desire to be led by corruption and despots in the name justice and liberty.

Edit:
Kraken wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 1:16 pm Tomorrow more than 100 Republican grandees will issue 13 demands and threaten to form a new party if the GOP doesn't meet them.
A push to channel anti-Trump sentiment with the "Never Trump" movement in the spring of 2016 was largely unsuccessful at the time, and none of the people backing this latest effort are serving as elected Republicans. However, it comes as Trump's pull within his party appears to have lessened. A recent NBC News poll found that 44 percent of Republicans said they support Trump more than the GOP, compared to 50 percent who said they support the GOP more than the former president.
Maybe reasonable Republicans will coalesce around this nucleus.
This is my outlier hope that once upon a time used to be my short sighted desire. Not that the GOP will shrink to become irrelevant but rather it would eat its own through purity tests and other means to the point of implosion. Eating its own has been happening but rather than seeing signs of fracture, I only see more density, more galvanization.
Last edited by LordMortis on Wed May 12, 2021 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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Assuming they're serious about forming a third party, I'm not sure that hurts Republicans or helps them. Probably depends on the state.

Unless the new party is a crazy far right party (wink wink), in which case maybe it could hurt Republicans.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

Post by malchior »

LordMortis wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:26 pm When nearly half the country support them and they have the power of the tyranny of the minority in their favor, I hardly call it death throes. The GOP is far from dying. It should be shrinking while they try to become an only "us" system of government, a la every other despotic system in the modern world. I say should because even in 2012, if you told me nearly half of the US would support over turning elections and excuse an attempted insurrection at the Capitol building, I would stop hearing you, and looked for a way to excuse myself.
Exactly. This is the piece most people don't focus enough on IMO. They own the state and local level from dog catcher on up across the country. Not in terms of population but in terms of control. They have the federal courts. They have policy in handcuffs unless it is their policy. They aren't in their death throes. They have de facto control of much of the nation. And they are working hard to translate that to overcoming their narrow base at the national level. Will they succeed is an open question but the chances they take the House are very, very high. We can't even really talk about 2023 at the moment for that reason alone.
Defiant wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 1:19 pm Assuming they're serious about forming a third party, I'm not sure that hurts Republicans or helps them. Probably depends on the state.

Unless the new party is a crazy far right party (wink wink), in which case maybe it could hurt Republicans.
Who is in this third party? Liz Cheney and Kinzinger? It ain't happening. Trump consolidated power. Yesterday was proof of it. This third party talk is all but dead now.
Last edited by malchior on Wed May 12, 2021 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

Post by YellowKing »

LordMortis wrote:I need you to be right.
I'm also the forum optimist, and have been underestimating the depths the party will go to hold power since 2016. So you have every right to be concerned. :lol:
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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malchior wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 1:25 pm Who is in this third party?
I assume that it would be the retired politicians who signed the thing. (Or some new politicians along the lines of Evan McMullin in 2016?)
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

Post by malchior »

Defiant wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 1:33 pm
malchior wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 1:25 pm Who is in this third party?
I assume that it would be the retired politicians who signed the thing. (Or some new politicians along the lines of Evan McMullin in 2016?)
I more meant they are essentially never nudes. There are dozens of them. The struggle is over. There is no menshevik/bolshevik struggle here. It lasted a few weeks around impeachment and was over by CPAC. This morning codified it. There will be no third party. Anyone not on the crazy train will be getting off voluntarily or involuntarily. That's up to them.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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Cheney's ouster could be the string democrats need to start pulling at in order to unravel Trump's sweater. They need to ride this hard for the time being. Cheney is old guard and part of a dynasty that used to command a lot of respect.

I know it's probably a pipe dream, but I'd love to see today's actions result in something meaningful.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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His compulsive head bob is making me sea sick.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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This tells you that the only scorecard that matters for the GOP these days is overt fealty to Trump.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 10:55 am This tells you that the only scorecard that matters for the GOP these days is overt fealty to Trump.
Yup. The thing that stands out to me now is how ideologically and politically narrow the GOP position is now. As a thought experiment if Trump were to drop dead, it would cause widespread chaos in the GOP. The in-fighting would be intense and it'd be a race to try to bottle the lightning.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

Post by coopasonic »

El Guapo wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 10:55 am This tells you that the only scorecard that matters for the GOP these days is overt fealty to Trump.
Slightly different but I would say it was Trump's endorsement, which of course comes as a result of over the top fealty to Trump.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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I think the assumption is that at this point Trump orchestrated this whole thing. They voted to retain Cheney ~2 months ago when Trump was taking a few shots from party leaders. He pushed this to show everyone he still controls the party.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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El Guapo wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 10:55 am This tells you that the only scorecard that matters for the GOP these days is overt fealty to Trump.
More chillingly, the metric is whether you're willing to thwart democracy and overturn an election. We'll be seeing that again whether or not Trump is on the ballot.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

Post by El Guapo »

Lately I've been thinking that it's pretty essential to our future that Trump get indicted before the end of 2022. Other than Trump dropping dead, I'm not sure any other way to really go on the offensive against Trump and to have some hope of him going away.

I think the odds of that happening are higher than most people think, but not certain, and I don't think we'll hear much about it before it happens (if it does).
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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El Guapo wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 3:08 pm Lately I've been thinking that it's pretty essential to our future that Trump get indicted before the end of 2022. Other than Trump dropping dead, I'm not sure any other way to really go on the offensive against Trump and to have some hope of him going away.
Agree. Though I suspect an indictment might not matter a ton. He'd probably drag out the whole thing and somehow still end up running. Even in that scenario I think he has a fighting shot.
I think the odds of that happening are higher than most people think, but not certain, and I don't think we'll hear much about it before it happens (if it does).
I think the odds are ever lower. The FEC debacle showed that there is institutional corruption preventing action at some level in the Federal government. That was to be fair more bare knuckle politics but the Cohen related crimes statute of limitations is up in October and apparently there is no appetite to pursue it from accounts. That really leaves the Vance case and I just don't have any confidence in him after what he did with the Ivanka/Jared investigation. It looked really bad, it smelled really bad, and he is leaving the job at year's end. I could see him dumping a case file on a new person. That'll mean the decision is punted to 2022 which is still in your time frame but I can't shake the feeling it won't happen. We shall see I suppose.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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I hate to say it, but I almost want to see Trump run again in 2024, especially if he gets the nomination through GOP weakness rather than some kind of resurgent popularity.

Biden is doing well. Obviously right-wing media doesn't think so, but polling is pretty clear. If current trends continue (diminishing the pandemic, genuinely popular government solutions, numerous positive economic indicators), it's hard to see how any but the die-hard MAGA base would opt for a return to the Trump era.

"Be careful what you wish for," I know, and the real problem is vote suppression, not voter preference. But I think the fact that Trump has a lock on the GOP is more a problem for them than for us.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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Except for the risk.

That’s all on our side.

They welcome a dictatorship.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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Pretty soon the GOP will just be actors who are controlled by people outside DC. Wait thats probably already a thing.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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malchior wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:59 am
Grifman wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:05 amThe group carrying out the audit has to make their process and procedures public, which they have been trying to prevent. This should be interesting. In addition, they have to provide access to the AR Secretary of State:

[https://www.12news.com/article/news/pol ... a19bce9856
From reading the piece, the 'audit' isn't on pace to finish the count before they have to leave the auditorium. They need to get it done in 2 weeks. So a 2+ week sprint to hand count with what appears to be an understaffed organization is supposed to be more accurate. I'd love for them to be short hundreds of thousands of ballots and then try to paper it over with some statistical bullshit. And by love...I mean I know it is probably going to happen and the whole thing is shameful.
They got through about 25% of the ballots in their count in 3+ weeks. They plan on getting through the other 75% in another 14-16 days.

CNN
The first semi truck full of 2020 election ballots rolled slowly through the Arizona State Fairgrounds on Friday, past the "Crazy Times Carnival" set up in the south parking lot to a warehouse where the approximately 2.1 million ballots cast by Maricopa County voters will be stored for the next week.

This is the latest bizarre act in the replay of the Big Lie -- that the 2020 election was stolen from former President Donald Trump.
On Thursday night, a three-week ballot review led by the GOP-controlled Arizona Senate came to a temporary halt. The lease for the Senate and its tech consultants, Cyber Ninjas, was up at the Veteran's Memorial Coliseum, where openly partisan volunteers and hourly workers had been conducting the ballot count.

Despite public pledges that this third ballot review would be finished by May 14, Arizona Senate liaison Ken Bennett told CNN they had gotten through only about 500,000 ballots before being forced to give up their space.

The lease could not be extended because the Coliseum is hosting more than a dozen high school graduations in the coming week, raising possible security concerns about the ballots, which are now being relocated.

...

"They'll be in a locked container with 24/7 armed guards, fencing and 24/7 livestreaming cameras," Bennett told CNN.
When asked if the facility housing the ballots would be temperature- and moisture-controlled, Bennett said it would be, adding that "the place where the ballots are stored will be in a condition that does not affect the ballots negatively."

Bennett would not discuss the specifics of circumstances inside the Wesley Bolin Building.

On the Arizona fairgrounds website describing its venues, it warns that the building is "not recommended for use between May through September." The reason? "Due to temperatures during the summer months."

As the truck moved the ballots across the fairgrounds, temperatures were scheduled to hit 102 on Friday.
The ballots will stay in their temporary home until May 23, when they will be moved back to the Coliseum. Bennett told CNN the count will restart on May 24, with the goal of finishing "within 14-16 days."
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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Smoove_B wrote: Wed May 12, 2021 12:36 pm I can only assume then they agree completely with the current platform and all its idiocy - even if they think they're still "small government' or "lower taxes" - whatever bullshit they need to tell themselves to vote (R).

In that respect, it's reminding me very much of my extended family members that strongly identify as Catholic and refuse to acknowledge any other flavor of Christianity. "Those are people rules" they'll say as they hand over money every week at mass,
Collectively we seem to love our single issues and causes. You say bullshit they need to tell themselves as if they have already decided to vote R and need an excuse. I think it's the other way around. They've mentally committed to small government, gun rights, the idea of a Christian society, or whatever. Voting D is repudiating that commitment so they hold their noses and vote R. And the top of the Republican party / the Trump apparatus gleefully uses those votes.

I don't know if it works any better but sometimes I wish we had a more European model with a bunch of little parties so we would at least have a chance to see if things like "gun friendly centrists" and "faith based socialists" could function as swing votes.

Your Catholic family makes me think of Pascal's wager. If you believe in the idea of sin and eternal damnation it makes sense to keep doing what you have to do to avoid eternal damnation even if it involved supporting things you don't like, want, or agree with. Which also seems to fit for the people who have simply internalized the idea from the Cold War that socialism is diluted communism and that is BAD!
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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Exactly what madmarcus said. Too true.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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Beau has an interesting perspective. If y'all don't like Beau or you already watch him anyway, just say so and I'll stop posting these. I like that he often finds a perspective I hadn't considered (like this one).

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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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Beau knows politics.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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He's a smart observer who forms his own conclusions. Even when I don't agree with them, I like to trace his reasoning. He often makes me examine my own snap judgments, and sometimes changes my mind.
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Re: Defining the 21st Century Republican Party?

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I appreciate you turning me on to Beau.
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