Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

Given the chances of dying of Covid related illness without being vaccinated are much better than the chances of getting a million dollars from getting inoculated and the cost benefit of dying vs not getting a chance at a million you didn't have anyway, I'd say the math is pretty bad.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Defiant »

Even ignoring the benefits of the vaccine, IMO the benefits of other incentives (eg, free donuts) outweigh the odds of winning a million dollars in a state where millions of others will be competing.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

RMC wrote: Sat May 22, 2021 7:33 am Although I got it in Jan, so now I am worried I need a booster shot soonish... Sigh..
What is the verdict on that?


I've also had to discuss getting a "fake" card to replace my real one since the December 2020 first shot date appears to be fake to anyone who checks it.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Been hearing chatter that Pfizer shots will require a booster ~8 months after the second shot was given. I'd imagine then we'll be hearing real soon about what the official plans are. Not sure about J&J or Moderna.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 12:15 pm Been hearing chatter that Pfizer shots will require a booster ~8 months after the second shot was given. I'd imagine then we'll be hearing real soon about what the official plans are. Not sure about J&J or Moderna.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Smoove_B wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 12:15 pm Been hearing chatter that Pfizer shots will require a booster ~8 months after the second shot was given. I'd imagine then we'll be hearing real soon about what the official plans are. Not sure about J&J or Moderna.
What is that based on?

I've been thinking about finally rescheduling the family Disney World trip that had originally been booked for April 2020. Probably putting a new trip on the books for April 2022, at which point everyone in the family should be fully vaccinated. But I'm unsure how to factor in booster shots into this analysis. I suppose that if 8 months winds up being the guidance then my wife and I should get re-shot in December / January, and my kids should still be within the 8 month window from their first shots.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

El Guapo wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 1:02 pm What is that based on?
Science!

I think it's a mix of information related to tracking parts of the first cohort of people that were vaccinated plus the understanding that the virus is still raging (and will be) around the globe in the near future (2+ years). So far, the vaccines all seem effective against the circulating strains, which is good news.

The issue is that for coronaviruses immunity in humans is short-term (historical research) and what we wouldn't want to happen is have this giant group of people that's been vaccinated suddenly have a significant dip in immune response at the wrong time (November/December, maybe) and/or while the disease is surging somewhere else (like what's happening right now in India).

It's like playing whack a mole and I think so much likely depends on what happens here in America this summer and how we're looking in October/November, headed into winter. That's why I think it's likely that the first group of people might get boosters in September/October to make sure we don't have what would have been a preventable resurgence during the winter.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

So what you are saying is it's good they couldn't get my injections until May because now in 8 months my immunity won't be dipping until D'OH!
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

My second shot was 4/1 (no joke), so I'm right there with you. I'm trying not to get too spun up about it and I'm kinda hoping they continue to figure out the vaccine benefits are good for at least a year and the Fall booster campaign is really just insurance.

I'll definitely keep watching (as if anyone would think otherwise).
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Smoove_B wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 1:10 pm
El Guapo wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 1:02 pm What is that based on?
Science!

I think it's a mix of information related to tracking parts of the first cohort of people that were vaccinated plus the understanding that the virus is still raging (and will be) around the globe in the near future (2+ years). So far, the vaccines all seem effective against the circulating strains, which is good news.

The issue is that for coronaviruses immunity in humans is short-term (historical research) and what we wouldn't want to happen is have this giant group of people that's been vaccinated suddenly have a significant dip in immune response at the wrong time (November/December, maybe) and/or while the disease is surging somewhere else (like what's happening right now in India).

It's like playing whack a mole and I think so much likely depends on what happens here in America this summer and how we're looking in October/November, headed into winter. That's why I think it's likely that the first group of people might get boosters in September/October to make sure we don't have what would have been a preventable resurgence during the winter.
ok, I think that makes sense. So it's not like there is specific information suggesting that 8 months is a particular point at which immunity fades, just that our collective prior experience suggests that there is *some point* at which it may fade, and that the error cost of later finding out that there is reduced immunity at that point could be catastrophic (normal winter surge + people thinking they're immune and not taking precautions).
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Defiant »

At least issues of supply and logistics shouldn't be a problem for the boosters (I wonder if people will be able to take the shot early, like after 6 months, if that fits their schedules better?)

But I'm worried that people who got vaccinated won't be as diligent getting booster shots without covid hanging over our heads on a constant basis.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

El Guapo wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 1:23 pm ok, I think that makes sense. So it's not like there is specific information suggesting that 8 months is a particular point at which immunity fades, just that our collective prior experience suggests that there is *some point* at which it may fade, and that the error cost of later finding out that there is reduced immunity at that point could be catastrophic (normal winter surge + people thinking they're immune and not taking precautions).
Yup, season 2 of the Fall experiment will be interesting as it'll be the first time we can look at vaccination rates and compare them to Fall 2020 trends - really see how the vaccine (hopefully) impacts circulating virus levels. Parts of the U.S. look almost identical to the data from a year ago and yet we've vaccinated a significant portion of the population. The rub will be to see where all those vaccinated people are and if the late Spring / early Summer drop in circulating virus in certain parts of the U.S. is more closely correlated with seasonal/environmental variables than the number of people we've vaccinated.

I'm back to finding parts of this fascinating (aka the etiology) again, though I do hope we continue to push the vaccine to the communities that need it the most. As part of the news I posted in another thread, there's 20+ communities in NJ with a population over 10K that have disturbingly low vaccination coverage (mid 30s percent). Will warming weather and increased humidity change their trajectories in light of lowered vaccination rates? Is that what's happening in parts of TX right now?

All we can do is remember the virus wants a human host and so whatever we can do to stop that from happening is helping.
At least issues of supply and logistics shouldn't be a problem for the boosters (I wonder if people will be able to take the shot early, like after 6 months, if that fits their schedules better?)

But I'm worried that people who got vaccinated won't be as diligent getting booster shots without covid hanging over our heads on a constant basis.
Very true. I expect a Fall booster rollout to go much smoother, yes. The issue of whether or not people will seek a booster is an interesting one as well. I am betting it will come down to convenience and what your individual experience was after the shot(s), i.e. did you have any significant issues. I guess we'll see.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Jeff V »

Has anyone run the numbers on how long it will take the virus to kill off all of the unvaccinated dopes?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Jeff V wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 6:55 pm Has anyone run the numbers on how long it will take the virus to kill off all of the unvaccinated dopes?
That's above my pay grade, but I have no doubts there are all kinds of simulations that have been run looking at possible paths for various states and regions based on their vaccination levels.

I genuinely feel for kids right now, particularly in situations where their parents are lunatics. I saw this today and was hit with a new layer of depression.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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My kids are my biggest concern right now...trusting people to only let their freak flags fly if they are vaccinated? I am 100% sure that those who choose to not get vaccinated are resentful about wearing masks and will not comply with such un-enforceable mandates. My kids have been well-educated though and even though they are still very young (4 and 7) they are not even comfortable going to a playground infested with unmasked kids.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Jeff V wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 6:55 pm Has anyone run the numbers on how long it will take the virus to kill off all of the unvaccinated dopes?
You mean, kill off or, more likely, infect leading to asymptomatic or mild cases of COVID, right? I haven’t seen the updated mortality stats, but I think they are still something south of 100%. :)
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Jeff V »

Kurth wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 11:25 am You mean, kill off or, more likely, infect leading to asymptomatic or mild cases of COVID, right? I haven’t seen the updated mortality stats, but I think they are still something south of 100%. :)
My wife suggests that repeat cases seemed to be more deadly in the nursing home environments where she lived. Yes, they might have to contract Covid a bunch of times, but with persistence they can eventually remove themselves from the gene pool.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Jeff V wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 1:11 pm My wife suggests that repeat cases seemed to be more deadly in the nursing home environments where she lived. Yes, they might have to contract Covid a bunch of times, but with persistence they can eventually remove themselves from the gene pool.
Your wife lived in a nursing home??

I think most nursing home residents are likely to be past the point of influencing the gene pool. I'm all for the anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers and their ilk dying off, though.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Whoops, I mean work. She's been working 16 hour days, though, so lived is probably more on point.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Jeff V wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 6:55 pm Has anyone run the numbers on how long it will take the virus to kill off all of the unvaccinated dopes?
The correct answer for this will likely be "it'll never happen".
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Encouraging news regarding breakthrough cases:
On Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the latest data on breakthrough COVID-19 infections, which are infections among people who have been fully vaccinated against the disease. Yet again, the data suggests that the vaccines are highly effective against infection, as well as severe disease and death. The data breakdown also hints that vaccines are winning the race against variants, which don’t seem to be breaking through at higher rates than expected.

Among approximately 101 million vaccinated people in the US as of April 30, the CDC collected reports of 10,262 breakthrough cases from 46 states and territories. That works out to about 0.01% breakthrough cases among the fully vaccinated. This number is almost certainly a significant undercounting, the CDC acknowledges.
More:
Still, the numbers are more reliable for severe and deadly breakthrough cases—and those figures are equally comforting. Among the 10,262 cases, only 995 cases (10 percent) were known to require hospitalization. And among those 995 people in the hospital, 289 people (29 percent) had asymptomatic COVID-19 infections or were hospitalized for a reason other than COVID-19.

Less than two percent of all breakthrough infections resulted in death; the CDC tallied just 160 deaths among people with breakthrough COVID-19 infections. Of those who died, 28 people (18 percent) were asymptomatic at the time of death or died from a cause unrelated to COVID-19. The median age of those who died was 82.
Last edited by Smoove_B on Tue May 25, 2021 1:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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pr0ner wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 1:22 pm
Jeff V wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 6:55 pm Has anyone run the numbers on how long it will take the virus to kill off all of the unvaccinated dopes?
The correct answer for this will likely be "it'll never happen".
Just to prevent any lurking anti-vaxxers from jumping to the wrong conclusion, all those dopes will, eventually, die. However, the vast majority will not die from Covid. Vaccinating isn't some secret plot to end your natural immortality. :ninja:
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Defiant wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 1:33 pm
pr0ner wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 1:22 pm
Jeff V wrote: Mon May 24, 2021 6:55 pm Has anyone run the numbers on how long it will take the virus to kill off all of the unvaccinated dopes?
The correct answer for this will likely be "it'll never happen".
Just to prevent any lurking anti-vaxxers from jumping to the wrong conclusion, all those dopes will, eventually, die. However, the vast majority will not die from Covid. Vaccinating isn't some secret plot to end your natural immortality. :ninja:
:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Defiant wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 1:33 pm Just to prevent any lurking anti-vaxxers from jumping to the wrong conclusion, all those dopes will, eventually, die. However, the vast majority will not die from Covid. Vaccinating isn't some secret plot to end your natural immortality. :ninja:
Truth dot com used to advertise that 50% of all smokers die. As a then smoker (I think I'm still actually a smoker though I don't know how many years it's been since I have had a cigarette. I would smoke again today if my health were good and withdraw didn't suck so bad) my instincts for that PSA was always to respond I have a 50% chance at becoming immortal.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Smoove_B wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 1:33 pm Encouraging news regarding breakthrough cases:
On Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the latest data on breakthrough COVID-19 infections, which are infections among people who have been fully vaccinated against the disease. Yet again, the data suggests that the vaccines are highly effective against infection, as well as severe disease and death. The data breakdown also hints that vaccines are winning the race against variants, which don’t seem to be breaking through at higher rates than expected.

Among approximately 101 million vaccinated people in the US as of April 30, the CDC collected reports of 10,262 breakthrough cases from 46 states and territories. That works out to about 0.01% breakthrough cases among the fully vaccinated. This number is almost certainly a significant undercounting, the CDC acknowledges.
More:
Still, the numbers are more reliable for severe and deadly breakthrough cases—and those figures are equally comforting. Among the 10,262 cases, only 995 cases (10 percent) were known to require hospitalization. And among those 995 people in the hospital, 289 people (29 percent) had asymptomatic COVID-19 infections or were hospitalized for a reason other than COVID-19.

Less than two percent of all breakthrough infections resulted in death; the CDC tallied just 160 deaths among people with breakthrough COVID-19 infections. Of those who died, 28 people (18 percent) were asymptomatic at the time of death or died from a cause unrelated to COVID-19. The median age of those who died was 82.
Not trying to look a gift horse in the mouth, but aren't those hospitalization and death rates pretty similar to those without the vaccine? Isn't it about 10-15% hospitalization and 1-2% deaths?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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stessier wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 1:42 pm Not trying to look a gift horse in the mouth, but aren't those hospitalization and death rates pretty similar to those without the vaccine? Isn't it about 10-15% hospitalization and 1-2% deaths?
That was my initial thought. What am I missing? That this is good because it's not worse?

It seems like we would have expected numbers to be better than those for 'vanilla' COVID-19 among the unvaccinated, but somewhat worse than those for 'vanilla' COVID-19 among the vaccinated.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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stessier wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 1:42 pm

Not trying to look a gift horse in the mouth, but aren't those hospitalization and death rates pretty similar to those without the vaccine? Isn't it about 10-15% hospitalization and 1-2% deaths?
I think the rate was ~20% hospitalized and ~2% deaths, so not too different, but it was hard to get an accurate statistics ( due to asymptomatic cases and covid deaths not officially counted).

However, it's worth remembering that those that were vaccinated (especially in the earlier groups that were vaccinated) were more vulnerable to the disease, and so you would expect higher rates.

Also, remember they're likely undercounting cases. There may be more cases that are mild that they are missing (but then, like I mentioned above, it's hard to get accurate stats).
Last edited by Defiant on Tue May 25, 2021 2:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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stessier wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 1:42 pm Not trying to look a gift horse in the mouth, but aren't those hospitalization and death rates pretty similar to those without the vaccine? Isn't it about 10-15% hospitalization and 1-2% deaths?
I don't know if it's an artifact of the sample size (because it's so small). Remember, we're looking at a relatively small group of people - a tiny proportion of those being vaccinated that get sick and and even smaller grouping of those that were vaccinated, became ill and then required treatment (or died). As the CDC points out, it's highly, highly likely that the actual number of breakthrough cases is higher but that those people are completely asymptomatic and never actually know they've been infected. This would change the equation significantly as the pool of people that are having breakthroughs and nothing happens would drive the % of issues even lower.

I think I mentioned it elsewhere, but this is why population level testing still needs to happen -why we still need to see how the virus is creeping around among vaccinated people. That being said, since we weren't doing large scale surveillance data before we really don't know how it was circulating and causing asymptomatic cases in our population last May or August or October. However, if we can start get a handle on it now I think it will help us better predict future outbreaks - getting more info about seasonal and regional variations.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Smoove_B wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 2:17 pm I think I mentioned it elsewhere, but this is why population level testing still needs to happen -why we still need to see how the virus is creeping around among vaccinated people. That being said, since we weren't doing large scale surveillance data before we really don't know how it was circulating and causing asymptomatic cases in our population last May or August or October. However, if we can start get a handle on it now I think it will help us better predict future outbreaks - getting more info about seasonal and regional variations.
That seems to pretty much be a dream at this point though. Might as well hope for 80% vaccination rate.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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stessier wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 2:28 pm That seems to pretty much be a dream at this point though. Might as well hope for 80% vaccination rate.
I'm only left scratching my head because after West Nile Virus arrived in 2001, we were drawing samples from every living creature (land, sea and air) to see where it was and monitoring if any other animals were getting sick. The idea that we couldn't (wouldn't? won't?) set up surveillance testing for asymptomatic COVID-19 in a post-vaccinated America is...frustrating.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

Zaxxon wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 1:49 pm What am I missing?
What we are all missing. The data is through April 30th but from when? And how did that build to 101 million people? 2% of breakthrough cases needs be in context of 10,262 of 101 million over the course of... a day? a week? Five months?

160 deaths of 101 million people isn't all that great for a day on April 30th where the we were at about 730 deaths a day for the whole populace. But it's pretty fan damned tastic if when they are giving me a summary of all vaccinated people starting from December and moving forward as more and more joined the masses.

And of course, if more people are catching it than are being diagnosed through breakthrough testing, then the 10%/2% rates goes down.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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LordMortis wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 2:37 pm
Zaxxon wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 1:49 pm What am I missing?
What we are all missing. The data is through April 30th but from when? And how did that build to 101 million people? 2% of breakthrough cases needs be in context of 10,262 of 101 million over the course of... a day? a week? Five months?
Looking at the report, it looks like 10K breakthrough cases among fully vaccinated people were reported between 1/1 and 4/30. Of course, keep in mind that the overwhelming majority of those 101 million people were vaccinated for less than that time (so the report would have only included them at the point where they became vaccinated) - for example, it looks like ~50 million people became fully vaccinated in April, so for about half the people, it was less than a month, while for half it was more than a month.

Also, it looks like they might include everyone who gets their second shot, not just those who are two weeks past their second shot (which is what I thought counted as fully vaccinated), which would mean higher numbers.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Smoove_B wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 2:31 pm
stessier wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 2:28 pm That seems to pretty much be a dream at this point though. Might as well hope for 80% vaccination rate.
I'm only left scratching my head because after West Nile Virus arrived in 2001, we were drawing samples from every living creature (land, sea and air) to see where it was and monitoring if any other animals were getting sick. The idea that we couldn't (wouldn't? won't?) set up surveillance testing for asymptomatic COVID-19 in a post-vaccinated America is...frustrating.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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BBC Live blog of COVID-19 hearings about Johnson's pandemic response

It seems like we weren't alone having a leader who was completely negligent/ivermatched by the virus. This is a crazy hearing. Cummings attacked his own qualification, Johnson's qualifications, and said a system that gave them an election between Johnson and Corbyn was a shambles. We can't expect such political bravery and honesty out of Trumpists.
We’ve already heard a flavour of Dominic Cummings’ criticism of Boris Johnson – saying, extraordinarily, because of the PM’s apparently lax attitude to Covid, that he wasn’t involved in key emergency meetings early on in 2020.

Boris Johnson likened Covid-19 to Swine Flu and a scare story, according to Cummings – and would say things like he wanted to be injected with the virus live on TV to prove it wasn’t dangerous.

He’s also mentioned the PM’s holiday in February 2020 – clearly accusing the prime minister of not taking Covid seriously enough at what was a crucial time in the early days of the pandemic.

But interestingly the PM isn’t being singled out for blame - Cummings has repeatedly described ‘groupthink’, a lack of planning, how systems were not in place for dealing with this sort of pandemic, false assumptions and the dawning realisation that the situation was far worse than anyone had realised.

He said the then Cabinet Secretary Mark Sedwill wanted to advocate Covid ‘chicken-pox parties’ so more people could catch the virus.

And Cummings pulled no punches in his criticism of the Health Secretary Matt Hancock, saying he told the Prime Minister repeatedly that he should have been fired and that his department was overwhelmed.
Rebecca Long Bailey's final question is about whether the wrong people were in the wrong jobs to deal with the pandemic.

Cummings says the crisis raises profound questions about a political system that gives people a choice between Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson.

He says any system that gives a choice between two people like that is obviously a system that has gone "terribly wrong".

There are so many people who could have done a better job than those two he says.

He found himself it "completely crazy" that he himself was in such an important position because he is "not smart".

It is "completely crackers" that he and Boris Johnson were in these prominent positions.

It was "lions led by donkeys" with great people on the ground but the leadership let people down on the front line.
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Smoove_B
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

I haven't following their story too closely over there, but let's remember the Great Barrington Debate nonsense didn't materialize out of the ether.

Unrelated - remember this as we head in to a major holiday weekend here in the states:


Wow--there is such racial disparity in vaccinations in DC that Black residents now make up *80 percent* of new coronavirus cases there, up from 46 percent late last year, which was in line with total share of city population.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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I'm not seeing this widely shared, but it's excellent insight as to how 'bigger picture" public health works - or maybe it's too detailed for casual reading. Anyway, one of the big talking points (still) is that COVID-19 isn't killing anyone and it barely was when we were in free-fall last year. However, now that we've had some time to compile data, we can start to use standardized public health measures (DALYs and QALYs) that try to evaluate what life is now like for people that (1) had COVID-19 and (2) are living with the short and possible long-term impacts. Again, I share because I think too many are focused on the binary nature of disease and not really considering the potential lifelong impacts we're still learning about.

Count the cost of disability caused by COVID-19:
To tackle the pandemic’s inequitable impact, researchers must also count how COVID-19 contributes to ill health, and do so comprehensively. If scarce resources are allocated with only the death count in mind, low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) with younger populations might not receive their fair share. This could be devastating for countries that rely on the productivity of people of working age for economic development. Choosing the right metrics can also help to identify and address inequity within countries. Evidence from many nations suggest that members of minority ethnic communities are more likely to catch COVID-19 and die from it, as well as being more likely to die at a younger age4 (see also Nature 592, 674–680; 2021).

Fortunately, metrics of illness exist. They inform much health policy — from cancer screening and treatment to attempts to eradicate tuberculosis. Called DALYs and QALYs (disability-adjusted life years and quality-adjusted life years), these measures capture the impact of ill health on a person’s life course — combining the years of life lost because of premature death, and the years lived while experiencing the disabling consequences of disease.
...
We approximate that the health burden due to COVID-induced disability across all age groups could be around 30% overall. We arrived at this crude figure using modest assumptions about the duration and severity of COVID-19-related disease (see Supplementary information). This number also assumes a loss of 0.5 DALYs for an average case of long COVID, regardless of age, and includes DALYs lost as a result of COVID-19 deaths, using standard methods5.

This exercise hints at how much of the long-term health impact we could be missing by counting only deaths.

We can also compare the DALYs lost across age groups. The demographics in Pakistan could place more of the estimated burden of sickness on people of working age. More research is needed to assess whether this is the case: death statistics, in particular, could be under-reported among older people in many countries.
In short, we're just getting started with all this; it'll be a decade or longer (I suspect) until we can really say what the impacts were and will be.

In closing:
Data on both deaths and disease in vulnerable groups is often the most challenging to collect, particularly where access to services is poor. But it can be done. Kenya, for instance, is already conducting surveys that can potentially feed into real-time models of COVID-19 transmission and impact21. These should be linked with burden-of-disease estimates.

As we count the devastating losses from COVID-19 — of loved ones, jobs, communities, security — the lasting loss of health must also be tallied. Without the right metrics, we can see, understand and respond to only a fraction of the problem.
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malchior
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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A friend of mine returned to a 5-day work week last week after he was infected around the holidays. He didn't have the worst time during it but instead he had concentration, stamina, and mobility issues. Prior to the pandemic he ran marathons. They've decided to relocate back to the mid-west to be near family because even though he works remote he needs more support than his wife alone can handle. Just like the flu!
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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NY Times - this is a summation of the wild testimony yesterday by Johnson's former number 2.
He suggested that a doctor inject him with the coronavirus live on television to play down the dangers to a nervous public. He modeled himself after the small-town mayor in the movie “Jaws,” who ignored warnings to close the beaches even though there was a marauding shark offshore. As the pandemic closed in on Britain, he was distracted by an unflattering story about his fiancée and her dog.

That was the portrait of Prime Minister Boris Johnson painted by his disaffected former chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, in parliamentary testimony on Wednesday. While Mr. Johnson flatly rejected several of the assertions in his own appearance in Parliament on Wednesday, they nevertheless landed with a thud in a country still struggling to understand how the early days of the pandemic were botched so badly.

“When the public needed us most, the government failed,” said Mr. Cummings, the political strategist who masterminded Britain’s campaign to leave the European Union and engineered Mr. Johnson’s rise to power before falling out bitterly with his boss and emerging as a self-styled whistle-blower.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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malchior
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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