Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Paingod »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 7:49 pmNo masks and school starting. I don't even know what to say about it anymore.
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Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Flipper died a natural death, he caught a nasty virus.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Hey, let's check in with Nate Silver from 3 months ago and see how well his hot take aged.


He [Doctor Osterholm] was absolutely right, & now that the Delta & Epsilon variants are circulating, it's even more urgent that we heed this warning.
Check out, for example, this interview with Dr. Michael Osterholm on Meet The Press last week. It's relentlessly negative. He's spinning every fact in the most negative possible light. He's downplaying the effectives of vaccines. It all sounds terrifying.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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The next Tweet is a real winner.

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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I think some of this comes as part of the difficulties of arguing on the internet, but I'm continually fascinated by the extent to which Nate Silver seems to be public enemy #1 for epidemiologists. Not that he's the guy to listen to on COVID issues, but I understand his argument on this stuff to essentially be that if you're overly negative when messaging on the benefits of the vaccine (especially the extent to which you are saying "don't change your behavior after you get vaccinated") then it's going to make it more difficult to persuade people to get vaccinated. Which I think is almost certainly true, though of course there are obviously dangers in being too positive about the vaccines or of telling people to go 100% back to normal.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

He's currently pontificating about health policy and health communications - really expanding his armchair public health degree in 2021.

Locally, our NJ governor said at a press conference today (to give us information about how cases and Rt are still going up after a week) that he would not be mandating masks for kids in school at a state level unless there was some type of "wholesale deterioration in health data". So basically until kids start dying, there won't be masks. That seems like a great lesson to have learned over the last 18 months.

Speaking of which, he also said that mask mandates aren't coming back to the general public until there's an increase in hospital beds that are taken and ICU availability decreases. So again, using lagging indicators to drive preventative policy decisions. "I need to see at least 5 more dead kids (not just that Kintner boy!) and a few more people losing their limbs before I close the beach."

We have learned nothing. If this generation of kids doesn't rise up and kill us all after what we asked them to do and then pissed away their sacrifice, it'll be a miracle.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Mainly I'm just curious why Nate Silver being wrong about Covid seems to be perpetually a big deal vs. any number of other people being wrong on the internet about Covid.

But on the NJ governor...yeah that seems problematic. I don't really get it, especially when the American Pediatrics Association or whatever they're called is saying to keep masks. Obviously possible that the masks won't ultimately turn out to be necessary, but in terms of a cost benefit analysis, seems clearly correct to keep masks in place.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Because in the early days of the pandemic he was arguing with world-class researchers and academics about core epidemiology and public health practice - spouting it off to his millions of followers as if he knew more than people that have spent decades in the field.

He's on a short list of people that continue to think they know more than a community of experts. Dr. Osterholm is an insanely well-respected public health giant and Nate Silver is spouting off his opinion on Dr. Osterholm's expertise? That's absurd.
But on the NJ governor...yeah that seems problematic. I don't really get it, especially when the American Pediatrics Association or whatever they're called is saying to keep masks. Obviously possible that the masks won't ultimately turn out to be necessary, but in terms of a cost benefit analysis, seems clearly correct to keep masks in place.
It's an election year and I'm confident that's driving policy decisions right now. While I really don't want a GOP shitbird as our governor for the next 4 years, I also don't want kids to bear the brunt of the Fall 2021 wave that's about to come rolling in.
Last edited by Smoove_B on Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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But speaking of Covid commentary...I am genuinely shocked that Hannity said this last night. Like it's kind of sad that I'm semi-impressed that he said this, but he's one of the people who I think can genuinely move the needle on vaccination among a key group of people who need to be moved on vaccination. I think Tucker Carlson who is the #1 person who could help by saying something like this, though I'm not holding my breath on him.

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by coopasonic »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 7:49 pm Yeah, that's a great way to think about it.

In other news, models for TX not looking great:
...

They project Texas to be around 12,600 patients by August 13, that's about 2,000 above last summer's peak.
No masks and school starting. I don't even know what to say about it anymore.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:42 pm But speaking of Covid commentary...I am genuinely shocked that Hannity said this last night. Like it's kind of sad that I'm semi-impressed that he said this, but he's one of the people who I think can genuinely move the needle on vaccination among a key group of people who need to be moved on vaccination. I think Tucker Carlson who is the #1 person who could help by saying something like this, though I'm not holding my breath on him.
I'll see if I can dig it up but someone posited that Hannity is facing some sort of legal threat behind the scenes related to his radio show vs one against the Fox family. Which is why Tucker wouldn't be in the crosshairs. Apparently Hannity flipped like a light switch on this so people are cynically but fairly assuming it is some risk to himself.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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malchior wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:52 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:42 pm But speaking of Covid commentary...I am genuinely shocked that Hannity said this last night. Like it's kind of sad that I'm semi-impressed that he said this, but he's one of the people who I think can genuinely move the needle on vaccination among a key group of people who need to be moved on vaccination. I think Tucker Carlson who is the #1 person who could help by saying something like this, though I'm not holding my breath on him.
I'll see if I can dig it up but someone posited that Hannity is facing some sort of legal threat behind the scenes related to his radio show vs one against the Fox family. Which is why Tucker wouldn't be in the crosshairs. Apparently Hannity flipped like a light switch on this so people are cynically but fairly assuming it is some risk to himself.
Yeah, I would assume so. I mean, you never know when a crisis of conscience will hit someone, but unless his broader conduct changes I assume it's cynical motivation.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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El Guapo wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:22 pm
malchior wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:52 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:42 pm But speaking of Covid commentary...I am genuinely shocked that Hannity said this last night. Like it's kind of sad that I'm semi-impressed that he said this, but he's one of the people who I think can genuinely move the needle on vaccination among a key group of people who need to be moved on vaccination. I think Tucker Carlson who is the #1 person who could help by saying something like this, though I'm not holding my breath on him.
I'll see if I can dig it up but someone posited that Hannity is facing some sort of legal threat behind the scenes related to his radio show vs one against the Fox family. Which is why Tucker wouldn't be in the crosshairs. Apparently Hannity flipped like a light switch on this so people are cynically but fairly assuming it is some risk to himself.
Yeah, I would assume so. I mean, you never know when a crisis of conscience will hit someone, but unless his broader conduct changes I assume it's cynical motivation.
If you read the comments (which I really don't normally condone), apparently all of Fox except Carlson flipped yesterday. It was like a light switch. Basically everyone from 7am-5pm said something along the same lines during their show.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

stessier wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:35 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:22 pm
malchior wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:52 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:42 pm But speaking of Covid commentary...I am genuinely shocked that Hannity said this last night. Like it's kind of sad that I'm semi-impressed that he said this, but he's one of the people who I think can genuinely move the needle on vaccination among a key group of people who need to be moved on vaccination. I think Tucker Carlson who is the #1 person who could help by saying something like this, though I'm not holding my breath on him.
I'll see if I can dig it up but someone posited that Hannity is facing some sort of legal threat behind the scenes related to his radio show vs one against the Fox family. Which is why Tucker wouldn't be in the crosshairs. Apparently Hannity flipped like a light switch on this so people are cynically but fairly assuming it is some risk to himself.
Yeah, I would assume so. I mean, you never know when a crisis of conscience will hit someone, but unless his broader conduct changes I assume it's cynical motivation.
If you read the comments (which I really don't normally condone), apparently all of Fox except Carlson flipped yesterday. It was like a light switch. Basically everyone from 7am-5pm said something along the same lines during their show.
Isn't it because it got out that Fox News is requiring vaccine passports for all employees?

Presumably they're flipping because their own vaccinated status may soon be public.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by El Guapo »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:16 am
stessier wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:35 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:22 pm
malchior wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:52 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:42 pm But speaking of Covid commentary...I am genuinely shocked that Hannity said this last night. Like it's kind of sad that I'm semi-impressed that he said this, but he's one of the people who I think can genuinely move the needle on vaccination among a key group of people who need to be moved on vaccination. I think Tucker Carlson who is the #1 person who could help by saying something like this, though I'm not holding my breath on him.
I'll see if I can dig it up but someone posited that Hannity is facing some sort of legal threat behind the scenes related to his radio show vs one against the Fox family. Which is why Tucker wouldn't be in the crosshairs. Apparently Hannity flipped like a light switch on this so people are cynically but fairly assuming it is some risk to himself.
Yeah, I would assume so. I mean, you never know when a crisis of conscience will hit someone, but unless his broader conduct changes I assume it's cynical motivation.
If you read the comments (which I really don't normally condone), apparently all of Fox except Carlson flipped yesterday. It was like a light switch. Basically everyone from 7am-5pm said something along the same lines during their show.
Isn't it because it got out that Fox News is requiring vaccine passports for all employees?

Presumably they're flipping because their own vaccinated status may soon be public.
I doubt that's it - that kind of hypocrisy never slows anyone down in Trumpworld. Hell, Trump himself is vaccinated but that doesn't stop Trump loyalists from crapping all over the vaccines.

Possible that Fox's lawyers wrote a memo, though.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Should you wear your mask indoors if you're vaccinated?
I asked four experts, and received … four different answers that depend on your personal risk tolerance, living situation, and geographic location. If you’re vaccinated, you’re justified in either masking or not masking indoors. Here’s how to decide.

...

If you live in an area with a lot of cases, some experts say, it might be worth wearing a mask indoors, even if you’re vaccinated. This is especially true in situations where you don’t know the vaccination status of everyone around you, such as at church or a concert. “For example, I am wearing a mask at the grocery store again, but I am not wearing one at work, where I know almost everyone is vaccinated,” says Linsey Marr, an aerosols expert at Virginia Tech. Marr says she mostly does this to minimize the risk to herself and her family, because although it’s rare for the coronavirus to “break through” and infect a vaccinated person, it can happen, and it’s more likely to happen during a large COVID-19 outbreak. (Still, 97 percent of people who are hospitalized for COVID-19—and almost all who die of it—are unvaccinated.)

Determining what constitutes an area with “a lot” of cases remains tricky and subjective. Caitlin Rivers, an assistant professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, puts the number at 10 cases per 100,000 people. Right now, many counties in Missouri are over that threshold, and so are parts of Florida, Texas, California, and other states.

According to Rivers, the vaccinated should keep masking indoors in these places until children under the age of 12 can get vaccinated. “I don’t think we should give up on mitigation until we can offer kids the same protection afforded to everyone else,” she says.

...

“I agree with what the CDC says: If you’re vaccinated, you don’t need to wear a mask,” says Joseph Allen, an environmental epidemiologist at Harvard. Indoor masking may be reasonable in areas with large outbreaks, but a top-down mask mandate for all of America no longer makes sense, he says.

Allen worries that encouraging vaccinated people to keep masking undermines confidence in the vaccines. You can’t claim you “believe in science” unless you also believe in the science of vaccine efficacy. Mask-free living can also be a carrot: Look, if you get vaccinated, you can lose these things once and for all!

While there is technically a chance that a vaccinated person might transmit the virus to someone who transmits the virus to someone who just had a bone-marrow transplant, that risk is small. Especially if you’re in a place like a grocery store. “Grocery stores, we don’t think, are super-high-risk places,” says Ashish Jha, the dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. If an immunocompromised person pops into Walmart at the same time as you, a vaccinated person, “the amount of exposure you are going to create for that person is really low if you’re asymptomatic.” Someone who’s vaccinated and doesn’t have symptoms is likely not shedding enough virus to infect an immunocompromised person as they silently cross paths in the cereal aisle. And the immunocompromised could wear a high-quality mask to protect themselves, just in case.

Jha says he’s not worried about picking up the virus and spreading it to his 9-year-old, who can’t get vaccinated yet. Sometimes when he goes to the grocery store in his highly vaccinated town, he doesn’t wear a mask, even though people look at him funny because, well, he’s Ashish Jha.

What’s more, the masking endgame seems unclear. Vaccination has slowed to a crawl, so when do we stop masking? If mask mandates return, Jha says, cases will go back up again when they end. “This is not a long-term solution,” he says. “The long-term solution is to get more people vaccinated.”
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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This is why Fox News should be considered a danger to America.



Kilmeade isn't even smart enough to be politically insidious. He's just a friggin' moron.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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That's not their job, it's not their job to protect anybody!
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Suddenly a career at the FDA sounds positively relaxing!
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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hepcat wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:22 pm Suddenly a career at the FDA sounds positively relaxing!
Or a cop at any level from local to the alphabet of agencies at the federal level or the military or the fire department or OSHA or the Health Dept or...
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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LordMortis wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:32 pm
hepcat wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:22 pm Suddenly a career at the FDA sounds positively relaxing!
Or a cop at any level from local to the alphabet of agencies at the federal level or the military or the fire department or OSHA or the Health Dept or...
Police duty to protect.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Yup. Protect and Serve is more of a brand than a mission.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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hepcat wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:08 pm This is why Fox News should be considered a danger to America.



Kilmeade isn't even smart enough to be politically insidious. He's just a friggin' moron.
Honestly, this is great. I'm not sure I can think of a better message and messenger to Trumpists than a Trump-friendly / approved media figure saying "People who aren't vaccinated are choosing to die!"
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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I can't.


Anti-vaxx Groups on Facebook Are Changing Into “Dance Parties” on Facebook to Avoid Detection
Group members have incorporated a range of coded language to mask their discussions, many of which perpetuate debunked theories about the vaccines. “Danced” or “drank beer” mean “got the vaccine.” References to “Pfizer” generally use the terms “pizza” or “Pizza King,” and Moderna is referred to as “Moana.” Users generally play around with unofficial language about dancing to create more coded language.

For example, one group member said her husband had become sick after going on a “cross country trip where we spent 2 nights with dancers,” referring to two people who had just been vaccinated.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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I, for one, am shocked - SHOCKED I tell you - that this didn't work as the governors had planned.

States cutting unemployment benefits didn't get people back to work, study finds
State governors, largely Republicans, said the federal funds were keeping recipients from looking for jobs, making it harder for businesses to hire and holding back the economic recovery.

However, Census Bureau data suggests recipients didn't rush to find jobs in the weeks following the first batch of state withdrawals, according to Arindrajit Dube, an economics professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

Specifically, the share of adults receiving unemployment benefits fell sharply (by 2.2 percentage points) in the dozen states that cut federal funding on June 12 or 19, according to Dube. That translates to a 60% reduction in unemployment rolls in those states, he said.

But there wasn't a corresponding increase in employment among this group — in fact, the share of adults with a job fell by 1.4 percentage points over the same period, according to Dube. (Employment rose by 0.2 percentage points in states that didn't end the pandemic benefits.)

Together, the data shows there wasn't an immediate job boost following the cuts, Dube said. However, more time and information are needed to analyze the longer-term effects of state policies, he said.

"There's not early evidence [federal benefits] were a big constraint [on jobs]," according to Susan Houseman, research director at the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, who reviewed the findings.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Florida just reported a staggering 12,647 new daily COVID positives, the most reported by the state since January 30, 2021.

That’s 22.9% of all new daily cases reported to @CDCgov & more than the entire country was reporting just 24 days ago.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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[Narrator voice]

During the spring, the country, feeling their oats from a long winter, began to exhibit a "Fuck around" attitude. As summer came to a close and everyone was thinking about back-to-school shopping, the environment had responded with a shift to "Find out."

[/Narrator voice]
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

What's crazy is that around 7/16/20, FL was reporting about 14K cases - their peak for last summer. Now a year later with vaccines readily available, it's nearly as bad (though lets see how much higher it goes). Delta is absolutely not messing around and it would suggest this Fall and going into Winter is going to be potentially brutal. Again, likely not total deaths, but people just completely overwhelming hospitals again.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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I estimate that 1/3 of the people in the grocery store were masked today; that's the most I've seen since the CDC told us not to wear them.

Numbers are still low in Mass., but rising, as they are everywhere. The cluster in the news is in Provincetown, on Cape Cod. As of yesterday there were 256 known cases. 190 of them were Massholes, and most were vaccinated. Most of them were "mild" or even asymptomatic, but such a large concentration of breakthrough cases is alarming. Some observers without credentials are speculating that we have a new homegrown variant. AFAIK there is zero evidence for that.

P-town's population of 3,000 swells to 60,000 during the summer. A very large percentage of those visitors are gay, which is probably irrelevant, but a data point nonetheless.

Tomorrow Wife's company is having a virtual meeting to nail down their return-to-work plan, currently set for September. That's going to be an interesting discussion. I predict a lot of cold feet.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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BREAKING: U.S. reports 64,866 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since April, as hospitalizations continue to rise
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:59 pm
Florida just reported a staggering 12,647 new daily COVID positives, the most reported by the state since January 30, 2021.

That’s 22.9% of all new daily cases reported to @CDCgov & more than the entire country was reporting just 24 days ago.
Anyone remember when Politico was breathlessly talking a few months ago about how DeSantis had "won the pandemic"? Still it led the Orlando Sentinel to beg him to stop fucking around with WH adjacent border shenanigans and get back to Florida to get serious. His answer?

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Paingod »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:42 pmBut speaking of Covid commentary...I am genuinely shocked that Hannity said this last night. Like it's kind of sad that I'm semi-impressed that he said this, but he's one of the people who I think can genuinely move the needle on vaccination among a key group of people who need to be moved on vaccination. I think Tucker Carlson who is the #1 person who could help by saying something like this, though I'm not holding my breath on him.
I sincerely doubt this is coming from a place of concern for fellow people. It's shifting from the "Boomer Doomer" to "Dead Reds" as it flares up badly in places where anti-vaccination sentiment and disinformation run high. They're going to start loosing market share as their viewers die in greater numbers than CNN or MSNBC viewers.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Let's circle back to Hannity:

Following a viral out-of-context tweet, reports in places like Politico Playbook, The Atlantic, The New York Times, NPR, and The Week spotlighted Hannity for supposedly endorsing the vaccines, even though he never did any such thing.

...

If this media cycle sounds familiar, it’s because mainstream outlets had the exact same “new tone” problem with Trump, suggesting over and over, incorrectly, that he was changing his approach. Now the cliche is deployed for Trump’s henchman, to the same results.

Interestingly, Hannity’s anti-vax radio remarks came in response to anti-vax criticism of Hannity from the generic right-wing content mill of radio host Wayne Dupree, a Sandy Hook truther who has falsely claimed that the parents of a Sandy Hook victim were “actors” and the shooting was a “hoax.”

So, not only does Hannity distance himself from the vaccines, but he’s doing so to appease a far-right conspiracy theorist who has written about crisis actors. Why is Hannity acting like this? Because he’s scared.
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Smoove_B
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »


About 100 of the 613 U.S. athletes descending on Tokyo for the Olympics are unvaccinated, the U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Committee's medical chief says.
Ugh
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stessier
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by stessier »

Some people are going out of their way to make the Olympics a once-in-a-lifetime experience.
I require a reminder as to why raining arcane destruction is not an appropriate response to all of life's indignities. - Vaarsuvius
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Smoove_B
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

As so many others have pointed out - smoke weed in a state where doing so was legal? Barred from competition.

Refuse to vaccinate and potentially put others at risk? Welcome to the Olympics.
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Smoove_B
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Study from a few days ago on the Cognitive deficits in people who have recovered from COVID-19:
People who had recovered from COVID-19, including those no longer reporting symptoms, exhibited significant cognitive deficits versus controls when controlling for age, gender, education level, income, racial-ethnic group, pre-existing medical disorders, tiredness, depression and anxiety. The deficits were of substantial effect size for people who had been hospitalised (N = 192), but also for non-hospitalised cases who had biological confirmation of COVID-19 infection (N = 326). Analysing markers of premorbid intelligence did not support these differences being present prior to infection. Finer grained analysis of performance across sub-tests supported the hypothesis that COVID-19 has a multi-domain impact on human cognition.

...

This study confirms the hypothesis that individuals who have been infected with COVID-19 have persistent objectively measurable cognitive deficits after carefully controlling for pre-morbid IQ, pre-existing medical conditions, socio-demographic factors and mental health symptoms. Multiple studies are now using the online assessment technology reported here to investigate the neural correlates of cognitive deficits in people who have survived SARS-COV-2 infection, relate them to clinical outcomes and track at scale how they change over time.
Remember this when people keep screaming "children don't die from COVID-19". While it's true we haven't completed any studies yet focused on kids and COVID-19, I'd be amazed to learn there weren't similar potential impacts.
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Defiant
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Defiant »

People who had "recovered" from COVID-19, including those no longer reporting symptoms, exhibited significant cognitive deficits versus controls when controlling for age, gender, education level, income, racial-ethnic group, pre-existing medical disorders, tiredness, depression and anxiety.
FTFT.
malchior
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Quick hot take - people who aren't displaying great judgement or intelligence to begin with are about to get worse. Sounds great.
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