The Viral Economy

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coopasonic
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by coopasonic »

A nonny mouse wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:54 pm Plus who the hell carries $300 with them? Lord. :shock:
$300 was my standard pull when going to the ATM. It would last me a month or two, I just didn't like going to the ATM which is ridiculous as there is one right outside the cafeteria in the same building I worked in. I had taken out $300 right before COVID stuck us at home as it was my kids spring break and I figured we might want to do something... then we had a board game "flea market" and I ended up with nearly $600 in cash after that. My wallet was a bit thick. I've met up with friends for lunch twice in the past couple weeks and I paid both times just to thin the wallet out. It's getting there.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LawBeefaroni »

I pay with cash as much as I can. I used to go to ATM weekly. Now with COVID I just go once a month or so and get a stack and just keep it at home. I carry maybe $80-120 at any given time.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LordMortis »

I pull $300 a pop from the ATM. It's the max withdraw. It lasts, well since COVID, probably around 20 months now. Maybe longer. I am lazy so that's part of the $300 pull. The other thing is I think I am conditioned to ATM fees and reducing their impact, even if I haven't had an (avoidable) ATM fee in decades.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Jaymann »

coopasonic wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:35 am
A nonny mouse wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:54 pm Plus who the hell carries $300 with them? Lord. :shock:
$300 was my standard pull when going to the ATM. It would last me a month or two, I just didn't like going to the ATM which is ridiculous as there is one right outside the cafeteria in the same building I worked in. I had taken out $300 right before COVID stuck us at home as it was my kids spring break and I figured we might want to do something... then we had a board game "flea market" and I ended up with nearly $600 in cash after that. My wallet was a bit thick. I've met up with friends for lunch twice in the past couple weeks and I paid both times just to thin the wallet out. It's getting there.
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The Viral Economy

Post by Zarathud »

Jaymann wrote:
Zarathud wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:28 am Strippers and blow aren’t cheap.
And $300 will barely get you a taste.
That’s for the best. Carry for the situation you expect.

I have thrown down $300 at a single booth at GenCon — last at Chip Theory.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

Started seeing this on social media yesterday (the sentiment) - figured it was making the rounds on conservative "news" media:
It looks like something to celebrate: small businesses posting “Help Wanted” signs as the economy edges toward normalcy. Yet, instead of snapping up these jobs, many out-of-work Americans are choosing to stay home.

Some are worried about catching COVID-19 or prefer to live off unemployment benefits that are significantly higher amid the pandemic. Child care is another issue — parents aren’t able to work when they need to tend to or home-school their children. That’s contributing to a hiring and staffing crisis at small companies, which in turn can put a dent in their revenue and profits.

When Steve Klatt and Brandon Lapp set up interviews for their restaurant and food truck business, they’re lucky if one out of 10 or 15 applicants comes in.
Above and beyond vaccination and childcare issues, if only that federal minimum wage passed. Instead I have no doubts employers are confused as to why people aren't fighting over jobs that pay crap wages.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:32 pm Started seeing this on social media yesterday (the sentiment) - figured it was making the rounds on conservative "news" media:
It looks like something to celebrate: small businesses posting “Help Wanted” signs as the economy edges toward normalcy. Yet, instead of snapping up these jobs, many out-of-work Americans are choosing to stay home.

Some are worried about catching COVID-19 or prefer to live off unemployment benefits that are significantly higher amid the pandemic. Child care is another issue — parents aren’t able to work when they need to tend to or home-school their children. That’s contributing to a hiring and staffing crisis at small companies, which in turn can put a dent in their revenue and profits.

When Steve Klatt and Brandon Lapp set up interviews for their restaurant and food truck business, they’re lucky if one out of 10 or 15 applicants comes in.
Above and beyond vaccination and childcare issues, if only that federal minimum wage passed. Instead I have no doubts employers are confused as to why people aren't fighting over jobs that pay crap wages.
We have a $14/hr wage and those help-wanted signs are all over still. I don't see them coming down when we go to $15/hr on July 1. People are leaving the work force in droves. Restaurant workers saw that no one gave a shit about them or their safety. I know so many service workers who said "fuck it" and left the industry. They're either training for a different job (you thought entry level IT was crowded now, just wait) or playing crypto with stimmy money.

It's not just the money, it's dignity. Teachers make significantly more than minimum wage but they too are leaving after being treated like on-demand babysitters.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by noxiousdog »

There was a business in San Antonio that closed Mondays and Tuesdays because they couldn't find enough staff. I suspect it's because they aren't paying enough.

This is not an easy problem to solve. There are a ton of people that would not work if they don't have to. Heck, the second I have enough money to retire? I'm done. If there was medical and a minimum basic income? I'm not working.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LordMortis »

noxiousdog wrote: Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:18 pm This is not an easy problem to solve. There are a ton of people that would not work if they don't have to. Heck, the second I have enough money to retire? I'm done. If there was medical and a minimum basic income? I'm not working.
I wouldn't work if I didn't have to. I'm counting the months until I don't have to. There are 108 months between me an my 59 1/2 birthday that must be accounted for financially. By my calculations, there are approximately 7 months at current savings rate if the economy doesn't shit the bed before I could retire a pauper. There are approximately 36 months between and a reasonable but poor retirement. There are approximately 50 months between me and and reasonable but nothing extravagant retirement. We'll see how much I will endure. 36 months is what I'm shooting for. I'm not sure I have the constitution to work 36 more months, though.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

More on the job market:
Stick with me here, but what if people weren’t lazy — and instead, for the first time in a long time, were able to say no to exploitative working conditions and poverty-level wages? And what if business owners are scandalized, dismayed, frustrated, or bewildered by this scenario because their pre-pandemic business models were predicated on a steady stream of non-unionized labor with no other options? It’s not the labor force that’s breaking. It’s the economic model.

Unemployment benefits have offered a steady paycheck while you figure out your options. Put differently: a version of the safety net that’s been missing from most American employment, and, by extension, the ability to say no. No, I don’t have to work for a restaurant that only gives me my hours three days ahead of time, thus making it nearly impossible to find reliable childcare. No, I don’t have to work clopen shifts. No, I don’t have to expect a job without sick leave or paid time off. No, I don’t have to deal with asshole customers or managers who degrade me without consequence. No, I don’t have to work in a job with significant, accumulating health risks.
And to those running the calculus on their current situation:
Like Roose, I’ve also heard from a dozens of knowledge workers who’ve held on to their jobs over the course of the pandemic and are now dramatically rethinking their futures. They’re quitting jobs, they’re moving across the country — and yes, they’re able to do so because of financial safety nets, accumulated before and during Covid.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

FWIW I think this 'no one wants to work' story is a bit muddy when you take a hard look at the jobs data. We're only ~1.5% off the participation rate from the peak in February 2020 or a 4% decline in workers in relative terms. While the pandemic continues. Sure there is more government support than normal. However blaming the support and not the pandemic isn't so clear right now.

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Last edited by malchior on Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by noxiousdog »

But people are lazy. Isn't that the whole hunter/gatherer paradigm? We don't work when we don't have to?

malchior note: I bet if you redid that chart for < $15/hour it would look different. And don't get me wrong, I agree with the workers. My response to the San Antonio restaurant was raise your wages and you'll find workers.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LawBeefaroni »

malchior wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:45 pm FWIW I think this 'no one wants to work' story is a bit muddy when you take a hard look at the jobs data. We're only ~1.5% off the participation rate from the peak in February 2020 or a 4% decline in workers in relative terms. While the pandemic continues. Sure there is more government support than normal. However blaming the support and not the pandemic isn't so clear right now.

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Doesn't job participation rate measure those employed or actively seeking employment? Is there's an increase of unemployed not seeking employment, a flat participation rate doesn't discredit the idea that "no one" wants to work.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:08 pmDoesn't job participation rate measure those employed or actively seeking employment? Is there's an increase of unemployed not seeking employment, a flat participation rate doesn't discredit the idea that "no one" wants to work.
The point of the labor participation rate is to compare total people employed or actively looking for work against the total population in different periods of time. Flat participation rate means that the number of people entering the workforce is essentially the same as population growth in general. If we were seeing people essentially leaving the work force or not seeking work we'd be seeing the participation rate slipping.

That flat trend is probably somewhat of a coincedence since predictably 55+ had a huge decline other demos are up. It seems to align with pandemic effects as older workers avoiding risk of employment and younger workers replace them where possible. The real takeaway though is that difference I pointed out between the peak and current state at a relative 4%. That's a pretty small gap and again doesn't really scream "no one wants to work" when you still have an economic downturn and pandemic based restrictions still on-going.

IMO the no one wants to work story is partly political narrative from conservative scolds, partly misframed pandemic effects, and some of what the Smoove_B article talks about happening which is what the conservative scolds are scolding about.

Edit: And looking at what ISG posted the story gets pretty muddy again. The U6 could be high because people are on extended benefits but not "actually" looking for work but the trend is downward. If people didnt like to work it might show up as flat U3 or U6. We will see over the next few months as things shake out. But like I said this narrative is relatively weak IMO when you dig in and see how small the gap actually is.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:18 pm More on the job market:
Stick with me here, but what if people weren’t lazy — and instead, for the first time in a long time, were able to say no to exploitative working conditions and poverty-level wages? And what if business owners are scandalized, dismayed, frustrated, or bewildered by this scenario because their pre-pandemic business models were predicated on a steady stream of non-unionized labor with no other options? It’s not the labor force that’s breaking. It’s the economic model.

Unemployment benefits have offered a steady paycheck while you figure out your options. Put differently: a version of the safety net that’s been missing from most American employment, and, by extension, the ability to say no. No, I don’t have to work for a restaurant that only gives me my hours three days ahead of time, thus making it nearly impossible to find reliable childcare. No, I don’t have to work clopen shifts. No, I don’t have to expect a job without sick leave or paid time off. No, I don’t have to deal with asshole customers or managers who degrade me without consequence. No, I don’t have to work in a job with significant, accumulating health risks.
And to those running the calculus on their current situation:
Like Roose, I’ve also heard from a dozens of knowledge workers who’ve held on to their jobs over the course of the pandemic and are now dramatically rethinking their futures. They’re quitting jobs, they’re moving across the country — and yes, they’re able to do so because of financial safety nets, accumulated before and during Covid.
FOUND THE SOCIALIST!!!!!!
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LordMortis »

About those debit cards/banking. I was looking through crap in my wallet to prepare for my COIVD shot visit and noticed my debit card expired in October. So now I'm looking through months and months of unsorted, unimportant enough not to open but important enough not to recycle without thinking mail to find a debit card. Needless to say, I have been letting unsorted mail get a bit out of control. I guess that needs to stop while I at home and not WFH these next two days.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Jaymann »

Pro tip: It's the envelope with something firm inside.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Isgrimnur »

Jaymann wrote: Mon Apr 26, 2021 11:18 am Pro tip: It's the envelope with something firm inside.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LordMortis »

Jaymann wrote: Mon Apr 26, 2021 11:18 am Pro tip: It's the envelope with something firm inside.
That's how I found it. But if there was one thing that slipped through there is probably more. So sorting it is.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LordMortis »

Isgrimnur wrote: Mon Apr 26, 2021 11:25 am video
The Firm? While I remember this song, I don't remember Paul Rodgers or Jimmy Page sounding stuff in this song.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Isgrimnur »

Wrong The Firm.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

Here you go - another example of a business (well, former business] claiming they can't hire anyone because the government is paying people to stay home:
“People don’t want to work because the government is paying them to stay home, they’re getting unemployment, plus are getting additional money on top of that every week, and they’re getting stimulus checks. So they’re going to make more money sitting at home and working,” she said when reached by phone at the deli, referencing beefed-up federal unemployment benefits during the coronavirus pandemic.
Regarding what they're paying:
She said the deli paid good rates for these types of positions, with deli workers making $15 an hour and kitchen staff being paid $18 an hour.
It's not that I don't believe them - I just can't find any job posting they've shared suggesting (1) work is available or (2) what they're paying. Regardless, above and beyond the livable wage issue, as someone that worked at the deli counter of a supermarket for a year all I can say is that it's a thankless job and I can't even imagine dealing with customers right now, complaining about meat thickness in the throes of a pandemic.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Isgrimnur »

I worked a deli counter for six days. Then I got the commissary sacker job.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LawBeefaroni »

A deli is different than a deli counter at a supermarket.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:58 pm Here you go - another example of a business (well, former business] claiming they can't hire anyone because the government is paying people to stay home:
“People don’t want to work because the government is paying them to stay home, they’re getting unemployment, plus are getting additional money on top of that every week, and they’re getting stimulus checks. So they’re going to make more money sitting at home and working,” she said when reached by phone at the deli, referencing beefed-up federal unemployment benefits during the coronavirus pandemic.
Regarding what they're paying:
She said the deli paid good rates for these types of positions, with deli workers making $15 an hour and kitchen staff being paid $18 an hour.
It's not that I don't believe them - I just can't find any job posting they've shared suggesting (1) work is available or (2) what they're paying. Regardless, above and beyond the livable wage issue, as someone that worked at the deli counter of a supermarket for a year all I can say is that it's a thankless job and I can't even imagine dealing with customers right now, complaining about meat thickness in the throes of a pandemic.
I don't know why it's so unbelievable. People can stay home, get paid (something) and can try their hand at "investing" or streaming or whatever gig job.

That's not to say that everyone is doing it but it's far from zero.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Isgrimnur »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 5:51 pm A deli is different than a deli counter at a supermarket.
:shock:
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 5:54 pm That's not to say that everyone is doing it but it's far from zero.
While a deli is technically different than a deli counter, I'm telling you it's hellacious work - because it's direct customer service. I would not wish it on my worst enemy or require a prisoner to work at a deli counter, slinging meat.

Regardless, I've been trying to pay a contractor since Monday. Literally waiting (4 days now) for him to give me instructions for payment. What kind of world do we live in right now where a contractor can't be bothered to collect payment for work? Am I to believe he's sitting around at home right now and just too busy getting government funding to be interested in getting my money?
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 5:54 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:58 pm Here you go - another example of a business (well, former business] claiming they can't hire anyone because the government is paying people to stay home:
“People don’t want to work because the government is paying them to stay home, they’re getting unemployment, plus are getting additional money on top of that every week, and they’re getting stimulus checks. So they’re going to make more money sitting at home and working,” she said when reached by phone at the deli, referencing beefed-up federal unemployment benefits during the coronavirus pandemic.
Regarding what they're paying:
She said the deli paid good rates for these types of positions, with deli workers making $15 an hour and kitchen staff being paid $18 an hour.
It's not that I don't believe them - I just can't find any job posting they've shared suggesting (1) work is available or (2) what they're paying. Regardless, above and beyond the livable wage issue, as someone that worked at the deli counter of a supermarket for a year all I can say is that it's a thankless job and I can't even imagine dealing with customers right now, complaining about meat thickness in the throes of a pandemic.
I don't know why it's so unbelievable. People can stay home, get paid (something) and can try their hand at "investing" or streaming or whatever gig job.

That's not to say that everyone is doing it but it's far from zero.
It's not that its unbelievable. It is who is mainly pushing the narrative plus the lack of anything but anecdotes at the moment. We'll see it or not in the jobs data soon enough if its real. If job openings increase, participation rate remains flat, restrictions lift, and unemployment doesn't go up maybe something is there.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:39 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 5:54 pm That's not to say that everyone is doing it but it's far from zero.
While a deli is technically different than a deli counter, I'm telling you it's hellacious work - because it's direct customer service. I would not wish it on my worst enemy or require a prisoner to work at a deli counter, slinging meat.

Regardless, I've been trying to pay a contractor since Monday. Literally waiting (4 days now) for him to give me instructions for payment. What kind of world do we live in right now where a contractor can't be bothered to collect payment for work? Am I to believe he's sitting around at home right now and just too busy getting government funding to be interested in getting my money?
Just an anecdote but the guy who rebuilt my driveway, porch, and did a bunch of construction work told me he has to keep the guys working day after day or they get sniped onto another crew. He also took a while to pick up his check which was a first. My wife's business is also hiring and they were able to load up 8 production lines but they're paying $20+ / hr. to essentially do the job that Laverne and Shirley did. It's not hard work but they haven't had a hard time finding workers. Just anecdotes but I'm very, very skeptical.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:39 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 5:54 pm That's not to say that everyone is doing it but it's far from zero.
While a deli is technically different than a deli counter, I'm telling you it's hellacious work - because it's direct customer service. I would not wish it on my worst enemy or require a prisoner to work at a deli counter, slinging meat.
I worked in a deli for about 6 years. I was in school, not trying to raise a family or anything, but it was the best job I've ever had.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 7:05 pm I worked in a deli for about 6 years. I was in school, not trying to raise a family or anything, but it was the best job I've ever had.
I see all the words, but I can't make sense of them.

I would be curious to see employment surveys focused on customer service / front line employers vs office workers. Are "white collar" employers having the same problems getting positions filled or is it just coincidence the only people I hear complaining are the hourly-wage employers that traditionally (1) underpay and (2) abuse staff?
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Octavious »

Ya but he's talking about a deli counter in Jersey. Shit gets real here! ;)
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Yes papi!

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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Zarathud »

We’re looking for a probate paralegal — I expect it to be like looking for a unicorn.
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Smoove_B
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

See if you can detect the trend in the greater Pittsburgh area:


NEW: Many businesses are saying they can't get enough workers to fill empty roles right now. I wanted to learn more about the businesses that are finding luck with recruiting workers to see what's been successful. Here's what I found: (1/6)
Spoiler:
So what did I find? Employers that state their wages are having success at filling empty roles, so long as the wages are ones that are at least nearly double the federal minimum of $7.25/hour. But that's not all! Check out the full story at the top of this thread for more. (6/6)
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malchior
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

It's almost like there is a market for labor. Mild snark aside - some of the unemployment/stimulus support plus staggered restarts from COVID-19 slowdowns might raise wages and living standards. There is an interesting natural experiment happening out there right now.
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LawBeefaroni
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LawBeefaroni »

"They're way more willing to help you out and run food for you and do all these extra things because they're getting paid very well and they know they are, they know they're going to walk away with at least $20 an hour."
There are a lot of good arguments for increased wages but this isn't one. This is a first to market advantage with diminishing returns. Once everyone is paying $20/hr, it's no longer a draw.

Chicago's minimum wage is $14, soon to be $15. Double Pittsburgh's. It's not an incentive anymore, it's a floor.
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Smoove_B
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

The one thing I don't see mentioned often is the working conditions:
When Isaac Furman quit his job as a line cook in early 2020 to go back to school, he assumed it would be a temporary break from the industry. “I haven’t been back since,” he said, “because I can’t really trust any restaurant owners to provide a safe environment for their employees.”

Before quitting, Furman, who had worked in restaurant kitchens for seven years, thought he’d have a long — and hopefully fruitful — career as a cook. “I always figured I’d be an industry lifer,” he said. “I never harbored any illusions about it being easy per se, but I liked the idea of being part of the community… Restaurant ownership was the ultimate goal.”

Time away from the industry made him realize how disillusioned he had become with the industry, which he described as unsustainable and exploitative, especially in places with a high cost of living, like New York City. “By the time I was 26 at my last place, I was one of the oldest cooks in the kitchen,” he said. After he aged out of his parents’ health insurance, the subsidized insurance his work offered him was around $500 a month — which he could hardly afford with his wages. “Health care is a big part of this. The total lack of ability to raise a family while working on the line is, too. But there’s also the physical toll,” he added. “I had a foot injury once and couldn’t work for a week. What happens if it was longer than that? There’s absolutely no safety net, and every day you feel worse and worse.”
Again, from the same article:
Managers of small, independent restaurants and big national chains alike have told the press they’re having trouble getting longtime staff to return to their jobs or finding new employees to replace them. Managers and owners are largely blaming their inability to retain — or even re-hire — staff on expanded unemployment benefits designed to mitigate the economic devastation of the pandemic; claims that “no one wants to work” because they’d rather stay home and cash unemployment checks have become commonplace, even though they aren’t entirely accurate.
And yet, it keeps getting repeated, over and over again.
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malchior
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

It's probably partly working conditions and other factors like the balance between the type of people who want to work in the restaurant industry. One thing jumps out at me in the subtext there. If your average pre-pandemic restaurant worker was typically younger and demanded lower wages, maybe there has been a shift and that demographic is doing something else or can get paid similar wages doing something else. It also could be somewhat tilted to 'doesn't want to work'. I still find the latter to be moralistic hogwash with scant evidence but still the point is perhaps the industry needs to broaden their appeal.

Edit: We'll know more Friday when we get the April jobs report. March added a million jobs to the economy. April may very well exceed that. The economy is re-aligning right now and a lot of this could be noise, true labor mismatches that need time to work out, or pandemic driven baseline changes in employment patterns. In this environment there won't be simple answers. It won't be *wages too low* by itself or 'stimulus' has people living the life of Riley as a pat answer either.
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