It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

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It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by Kraken »

This is a thread we can all refer back to when we want to say "I told you so" or point fingers and mock. I'll start with:

The GOP will split before '24 after getting spanked in '22. The official GOP will consolidate as the trump party before the midterms and lose ground, and conservatives will form a new center right party. Since the Democrats are the center right party now, they'll be nudged left. Kamala will win in 2024 against a trump GOP Republican and a New GOP Republican.

Have fun with it.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by Holman »

The most important prediction is whether our future is (a) Star Trek or (b) Mad Max.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by Defiant »

I predict that someone will be wrong.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by Jaymann »

Wouldn't all predictions be about the future?
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by Defiant »

Holman wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:01 am The most important prediction is whether our future is (a) Star Trek or (b) Mad Max.
I predict it will be more like The Expanse - some good and some bad. (Although even with Star Trek, there was bad before there was the good).
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by Defiant »

Kraken wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 11:52 pm Since the Democrats are the center right party now
Not to derail, but I disagree. In general, while they're not as leftwing as the leftwing parties of other countries, they tend to be closer to them than the center right parties of other countries.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by malchior »

Since this is just predictions I'll go with hard predictions even though the uncertainty is a bit high in the case of the Senate in 2022.

In 2022, the GOP will take the House and achieve a majority of 5 seats at least but possibly up to 10. They also will take the Senate and have a majority of 2 -- I'm far less certain of this but again just straight predictions. At least 5 of the seats they pick up in the House will be through straight up gerrymanders. 3 of them in Florida alone. The popular/House Representation skew may be as much as +6% in favor of the GOP in the 2022 election. Meaning 50% of the seats will go to 44% of the vote. They will take the House with a minority of the national 'popular vote'.

I won't predict 2024 because it is too mushy right now. A lot of Trump stuff needs to be worked out but big-scale I believe the GOP will definitely *not* split. I think the chance of that is miniscule. The GOP has always maintained rigid party order and there is no other game in town. The Lincoln Project was just unmasked as a huge grift and there is no clear nucleus of non-extreme conservatives with enough name cred to coalesce around to moderate the party. Worse moderate conservatives are fleeing for the hills right now and simply retiring from public life. That trend will continue.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by malchior »

Defiant wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:10 am
Kraken wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 11:52 pm Since the Democrats are the center right party now
Not to derail, but I disagree. In general, while they're not as leftwing as the leftwing parties of other countries, they tend to be closer to them than the center right parties of other countries.
This is part of our problem. They are the left-wing stretched to what normally would be center-right. IMO an unmaintainable coalition with too many divergent opinions and weak leadership that won't be able to keep them together. Especially when they lose the House in 2022. The knives will come out. They won't split either but the in-fighting will be raucous.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by Freyland »

Is there a link about the Lincoln Project grift business? That's news to me.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by Kraken »

malchior wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:22 am Since this is just predictions I'll go with hard predictions.
My idea for the thread was to log verifiable predictions that lie 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, or 34+ years out. Somebody here is Octodamus, surely. Right now we're verging on Drazzil's future, so that was unexpected.

But sweeping generalizations are fun too. On that level I lean toward The Expanse by the end of this century. Specifically, we'll invent a much faster propulsion system than chemical rockets and open the solar system for business. If I'm wrong I'll eat my hat in 2100.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by Isgrimnur »

Freyland wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:08 am Is there a link about the Lincoln Project grift business? That's news to me.
AP News
For the collection of GOP consultants and former officials, being anti-Trump was becoming very good for business. Of the $90 million Lincoln Project has raised, more than $50 million has gone to firms controlled by the group’s leaders.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

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I predict The Lincoln Project ist kaput.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by malchior »

Freyland wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:08 am Is there a link about the Lincoln Project grift business? That's news to me.
I didn't realize it wasn't common knowledge yet but then again it got overshadowed by impeachment. There had been money misappropriation rumors and shadow accusations of a sex scandal that went as far as teenage boys. But that was just a whisper campaign in the mid-January time frame. People would make snide comments on Twitter. It broke into an actual sex scandal which saw several big names resign and LP is brining in external counsel to work it earlier this week and the grift talk became more open.

That involved several people saying on Twitter they heard Steve Schmidt in particular boasting the LP was a vehicle for generational wealth for his family. As much as $20M went to him - and he just resigned yesterday - "to make way for a female representative" on the board. It's ugly but then again they were just Republicans and Republicans with too little oversight are just going to financial crime, amirite?



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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by Skinypupy »

malchior wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:22 am Since this is just predictions I'll go with hard predictions even though the uncertainty is a bit high in the case of the Senate in 2022.

In 2022, the GOP will take the House and achieve a majority of 5 seats at least but possibly up to 10. They also will take the Senate and have a majority of 2 -- I'm far less certain of this but again just straight predictions. At least 5 of the seats they pick up in the House will be through straight up gerrymanders. 3 of them in Florida alone. The popular/House Representation skew may be as much as +6% in favor of the GOP in the 2022 election. Meaning 50% of the seats will go to 44% of the vote. They will take the House with a minority of the national 'popular vote'.

I won't predict 2024 because it is too mushy right now. A lot of Trump stuff needs to be worked out but big-scale I believe the GOP will definitely *not* split. I think the chance of that is miniscule. The GOP has always maintained rigid party order and there is no other game in town. The Lincoln Project was just unmasked as a huge grift and there is no clear nucleus of non-extreme conservatives with enough name cred to coalesce around to moderate the party. Worse moderate conservatives are fleeing for the hills right now and simply retiring from public life. That trend will continue.
While I would love to see Kraken’s optimistic prediction (couldn’t tell if it was sarcasm or not) come to pass, I feel this one is far more likely. Lose one - probably both - chambers due to the usual midterm malaise and the slew of new voting restrictions that are coming from GOP controlled state houses. All while the GOP lurches even harder toward the lunatic fringe.

I fully expect that we will see Trump again in 2024, and would put his odds of winning at least at 50%. Bump that up to 75% if he’s running against a progressive woman of color (I.e. Harris).

While this short term win has been a welcome reprieve, I fear that things are going to get worse. The light at the end of the tunnel could very well be that oncoming train.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by Holman »

If I have to lay down a marker, I'll say that the GOP will retake the House but the Dems will actually make a slight gain in the senate.

I actually don't think Trump will run for president again. He'll be 78, and he's already in bad physical shape. If he's able to escape justice over the next four years, he can be confident that he'll continue to do so. Plus he doesn't really want the job itself; he just wants the victory. He can get that by playing kingmaker and supporting a candidate willing to say "This is Trump's movement."
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

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I came up with a prediction about the past!

I predict Kraken's prediction that Florida Man won't survive his term is false.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by malchior »

Sorry for the slight derail about LP -
Kraken wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:40 am
My idea for the thread was to log verifiable predictions that lie 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, or 34+ years out. Somebody here is Octodamus, surely. Right now we're verging on Drazzil's future, so that was unexpected.

But sweeping generalizations are fun too. On that level I lean toward The Expanse by the end of this century. Specifically, we'll invent a much faster propulsion system than chemical rockets and open the solar system for business. If I'm wrong I'll eat my hat in 2100.
I'll reformat a little then and have a little fun with some "flair". This is a whole lot more "worst" case than I actually think FWIW but it's the mood I'm in after watching the shit show this week.
  • 2 years
    • GOP took the House and Senate - majority leader McCarthy and McConnell met with President Biden but refused all offers of cooperation. It was their way or the highway as the American people have rejected his agenda in favor of theirs. They quickly moved to promote American interests by passing Federal budgets that included permanent tax breaks heavily favored to the wealthy and token sunsetting tax breaks for the majority using the reconciliation process. They harkened back to the beginning of the Biden administration as proof that it was just the Republicans playing by the "rules" that the Democrats established.
  • 3 years
    • The United States government had been ground to a halt by obstruction and endless investigations culminating at the end of 2023 with a thinly premised impeachment based on Biden family business connections. After a 30 day trial, Biden was exonerated with the Republicans calling the exoneration the biggest travesty in American history.
.
  • 5 years
    • President Hawley was in the midst of his 2nd year after winning a razor close EC victory. It featured the biggest popular vote deficit in American history for a victor. The election was marred by accounts of voter intimidation, voter suppression, and several states de-certified the winner of their contest -- Vice President Kamala Harris due to claims of voter fraud.

      His administration was generally well run but the United States was rocked by escalating unrest in the streets and brutal crackdowns by law enforcement. Hawley was hampered by a slim Democratic majority in the House and decided to use his war powers -- advocated by Attorney General Cotton -- and declared martial law and took control of Democratic-run cities. The mission was to break the back of the lawless insurrection that had arisen across the nation. Police in those cities generally cooperated in full while local politicians filed suits to the Supreme Court for emergency injunctions.
  • 8 years
    • President Hawley (along with his Vice-President former Attorney General Cotton) began his second term after a landslide victory. This was attributed to record low turnout in cities as flares of unrest continued. The House GOP majority expanded over 4 years prior and the Senate had more than 60 members of his party in the majority. His "America Strong" agenda included tougher penalties for crime including civil unrest, pro-growth policies, ensured only American citizens could vote, and pushed economic development to reduce dependence on critical foreign manufactured goods.
  • 13 years
    • President Cotton in his 2nd year of his 1st Presidency was knee deep in recovery efforts from multiple natural disasters including a massive Category 5 hurricane that hit Jacksonville, Florida and NASA facilities effectively demolishing them at the end of 2032. After an insurrection in Atlanta and several other southern cities, Cotton set out a plan to restore Constitutional moral order in the United States. This included federalization of local police departments and amplified efforts to promote nuclear family formation and immigration controls that promoted family migrations of people with certain high end skills.
  • 21 years
    • The United States had elected their first female President, Elise Stefanikm in another landslide victory. Her administration was beset by financial and environment crises. Her agenda was meant to be focused on small business opportunity, continuing President Hawley and Cotton's programs focused on traditional family values, and religious freedom. However, events had gotten the better of her administration. Widespread unrest and marches against injustice and hunger had broken out. This was despite strong, effective but brutal laws that were passed in the Hawley administration and blessed by SCOTUS designed to prevent lawless insurrections (such as the one Antifa had conducted at the nation's Capitol in 2021.
  • 50 years old out
    • During the 2nd American Civil war (2046-2053), hackers were able to steal the writings of the inner circle of the GOP. They revealed divisions about how to reform American constitutional order with many party members eventually kowtowing to Cotton and Hawley's vision for sole GOP rule across the entirety of the United States. Hawley's assassination by a extremist off-shoot of BLM in 2044 however left Cotton with sole control of that agenda and he drove hard to consolidate power. His ascension to a 3rd Presidential term was premised on a controversial amendment to the 22nd Amendment. Many questions to the legitimacy of some of the state level votes to ratify that amendment are still unanswered and likely will never be answered. In 2045, his crackdown on cities ignited a spark that led to a bloody civil war that left the GOP in charge of an economically devastated United States.
Edit: Cleaned up a couple drafting errors and changed the tenses to make it more 'alt-history'.
Last edited by malchior on Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:58 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Jesus.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by malchior »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:32 pmJesus.
Like I said...I'm in a mood. I only think the 2 years out is accurate and think it has a chance to be very accurate.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

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Skinypupy wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:01 pm
While I would love to see Kraken’s optimistic prediction (couldn’t tell if it was sarcasm or not) come to pass
Not sarcasm -- rather, staking out a contrarian viewpoint. trumplicans will lose seats in Congress if they continue to radicalize -- and they will -- and that loss will finally fracture the party.
Jaymann wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:31 pm I came up with a prediction about the past!

I predict Kraken's prediction that Florida Man won't survive his term is false.
:lol: Acknowledged. Such is the danger of taking contrarian positions.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by Dramatist »

Kraken wrote:
Skinypupy wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:01 pm
While I would love to see Kraken’s optimistic prediction (couldn’t tell if it was sarcasm or not) come to pass
Not sarcasm -- rather, staking out a contrarian viewpoint. trumplicans will lose seats in Congress if they continue to radicalize -- and they will -- and that loss will finally fracture the party.
Jaymann wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:31 pm I came up with a prediction about the past!

I predict Kraken's prediction that Florida Man won't survive his term is false.
:lol: Acknowledged. Such is the danger of taking contrarian positions.
I also see Republicans further radicalizing and losing voters because of it. They’ll be just as loud or louder but have less overall influence. I’m hopeful that the Biden administration taking Covid seriously means that the economy will have a bounce back by the end of 2021 as well.

Last time I looked 22 Republicans senator seats were up for grabs in 2022 vs. 10 Democratic seats. I could see Democrats gaining a couple of seats in the Senate.


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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

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I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that malchior will continue to make dire predictions for the foreseeable future! :D
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

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malchior wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:31 pm I'll reformat a little then and have a little fun with some "flair". This is a whole lot more "worst" case than I actually think FWIW but it's the mood I'm in after watching the shit show this week.
I don't think I like this game anymore.

I predict the GOP will regain control of the House in 2022 but Democrats will keep the Senate. With power split between the parties Biden will be unable to pass any legislation and resort to rule by executive order.

I assume republicans will win the presidency in 2024 because the American electorate always seems to quickly forget the abuses of the last -R administration.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

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malchior wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 8:33 am LP is brining in external counsel
I hear that keeps them extra moist.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by Holman »

Something that could upend predictions about 2022 would be the Senate eliminating the filibuster and Congress then passing both the John Lewis Voting Rights Act and the For the People Act.

It's now or never for democracy in America.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by malchior »

Holman wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 6:06 pm Something that could upend predictions about 2022 would be the Senate eliminating the filibuster and Congress then passing both the John Lewis Voting Rights Act and the For the People Act.

It's now or never for democracy in America.
This would drastically change things but I estimate there is a negligible chance of it happening because they simply won't get rid of the filibuster.
Isgrimnur wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 5:20 pm
malchior wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 8:33 am LP is brining in external counsel
I hear that keeps them extra moist.
Considering the investigation they are conducting...that is a disgusting possibility. :shock:
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by Drazzil »

You guys forget something critical. Democrats don't fight. I think Democrats and Republicans (Kabuke theater aside) want 90% of the same thing.

On that note my prediction: Nothing good
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by LordMortis »

Kraken wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:01 pm
Jaymann wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:31 pm I came up with a prediction about the past!

I predict Kraken's prediction that Florida Man won't survive his term is false.
:lol: Acknowledged. Such is the danger of taking contrarian positions.
I underestimated his psychosis and refusal to do his job. I didn't think he'd make it either at the outset. But how much did he actually do? Stress didn't get to him. He went golfing and "no. I don't take any responsibility for that at all" and let everyone else do the work and his party loved him for it.

I also predicted and welcomed the GOP take over by the fringe going all the way back to Palin and before. It was easy to see coming. What I got way wrong was it would bring upon itself an irrecoverable implosion of the GOP. I don't know what happens moving forward.

The closest thing I come to predicting now is that the Democrats underestimate how misogynist we are (forget racist) and run Harris in 2024. She does a noticeably good job as VP. Something that doesn't happen. Still, no matter how good she it, as a nation we suck, and a Trump surrogate wins the presidency. Where it goes from there? Dunno, but I won't like it.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

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LordMortis wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:33 pm
Kraken wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:01 pm
Jaymann wrote: Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:31 pm I came up with a prediction about the past!

I predict Kraken's prediction that Florida Man won't survive his term is false.
:lol: Acknowledged. Such is the danger of taking contrarian positions.
I underestimated his psychosis and refusal to do his job. I didn't think he'd make it either at the outset. But how much did he actually do? Stress didn't get to him. He went golfing and "no. I don't take any responsibility for that at all" and let everyone else do the work and his party loved him for it.

I also predicted and welcomed the GOP take over by the fringe going all the way back to Palin and before. It was easy to see coming. What I got way wrong was it would bring upon itself an irrecoverable implosion of the GOP. I don't know what happens moving forward.

The closest thing I come to predicting now is that the Democrats underestimate how misogynist we are (forget racist) and run Harris in 2024. She does a noticeably good job as VP. Something that doesn't happen. Still, no matter how good she it, as a nation we suck, and a Trump surrogate wins the presidency. Where it goes from there? Dunno, but I won't like it.
Of course there is also a possibility that women and minorities mobilize behind Harris like nobody's business, if nothing else to keep some honky ass motherfucker out of office. Remember that minorities and young people will increasingly dominate the population going forward. Is it enough to overcome voter suppression on steroids? Long term perhaps, short term who knows? That's why this stuff is so hard to predict.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

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I hope you're right. The party of Trump exceeded my expectations and my associations of a party of personal and fiscal responsibly is dead or was the greatest political of myth lifetime. It's hard to say which any more. There has been no hint of fracture found and loyalties are being cataloged.

I'm still not a democrat, but pragmatically, I'm a democrat now.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

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Re: misogyny.

Remember that Hillary Clinton got three million more votes than Trump. And that was Hillary Clinton.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

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Holman wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:18 pm Re: misogyny.

Remember that Hillary Clinton got three million more votes than Trump. And that was Hillary Clinton.
How'd that work out for us?
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

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LordMortis wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:23 pm
Holman wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:18 pm Re: misogyny.

Remember that Hillary Clinton got three million more votes than Trump. And that was Hillary Clinton.
How'd that work out for us?
Ironically, as I have said before, if Clinton wins she gets blamed for Covid and we could have seen a Florida Man victory in 2020. Instead we get Biden and a weakened GOP.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

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Jaymann wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:31 pm
LordMortis wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:23 pm
Holman wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:18 pm Re: misogyny.

Remember that Hillary Clinton got three million more votes than Trump. And that was Hillary Clinton.
How'd that work out for us?
Ironically, as I have said before, if Clinton wins she gets blamed for Covid and we could have seen a Florida Man victory in 2020. Instead we get Biden and a weakened GOP.
You're assuming that the Trump response was the best that could have been hoped for. What if Hillary managed it better, mitigating the damaging thus far by, say, 20%? It's still a hell of a thing to deal with, but I think she would have done so without the apathy shown by the mangerine.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

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Jeff V wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:01 am
Jaymann wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:31 pm
LordMortis wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:23 pm
Holman wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:18 pm Re: misogyny.

Remember that Hillary Clinton got three million more votes than Trump. And that was Hillary Clinton.
How'd that work out for us?
Ironically, as I have said before, if Clinton wins she gets blamed for Covid and we could have seen a Florida Man victory in 2020. Instead we get Biden and a weakened GOP.
You're assuming that the Trump response was the best that could have been hoped for. What if Hillary managed it better, mitigating the damaging thus far by, say, 20%? It's still a hell of a thing to deal with, but I think she would have done so without the apathy shown by the mangerine.
She got crucified when four died at Benghazi. You think she could have survived 300 to 500 per day?
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by Jeff V »

Jaymann wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:16 am
Jeff V wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:01 am
Jaymann wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:31 pm
LordMortis wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:23 pm
Holman wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:18 pm Re: misogyny.

Remember that Hillary Clinton got three million more votes than Trump. And that was Hillary Clinton.
How'd that work out for us?
Ironically, as I have said before, if Clinton wins she gets blamed for Covid and we could have seen a Florida Man victory in 2020. Instead we get Biden and a weakened GOP.
You're assuming that the Trump response was the best that could have been hoped for. What if Hillary managed it better, mitigating the damaging thus far by, say, 20%? It's still a hell of a thing to deal with, but I think she would have done so without the apathy shown by the mangerine.
She got crucified when four died at Benghazi. You think she could have survived 300 to 500 per day?
Because of double-standards ,probably not. But still, her response would have been far more compassionate, for starters, she wouldn't have been calling it a "hoax." And the death toll might not have been so high has a result.
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Kraken
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by Kraken »

Jeff V wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:22 am
Jaymann wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:16 am
Jeff V wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:01 am
Jaymann wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:31 pm
LordMortis wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:23 pm
Holman wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:18 pm Re: misogyny.

Remember that Hillary Clinton got three million more votes than Trump. And that was Hillary Clinton.
How'd that work out for us?
Ironically, as I have said before, if Clinton wins she gets blamed for Covid and we could have seen a Florida Man victory in 2020. Instead we get Biden and a weakened GOP.
You're assuming that the Trump response was the best that could have been hoped for. What if Hillary managed it better, mitigating the damaging thus far by, say, 20%? It's still a hell of a thing to deal with, but I think she would have done so without the apathy shown by the mangerine.
She got crucified when four died at Benghazi. You think she could have survived 300 to 500 per day?
Because of double-standards ,probably not. But still, her response would have been far more compassionate, for starters, she wouldn't have been calling it a "hoax." And the death toll might not have been so high has a result.
Somebody with credentials recently found that US casualties would be 40% lighter if the US had responded comparably to comparable countries. As we close in on 500k dead, 200k of them can be laid at trump's feet, at least hypothetically.

'Course, that example wouldn't exist for reference, so Pres. Hillary would be taking heat for 300k dead.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by El Guapo »

Kraken wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:49 am
Jeff V wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:22 am
Jaymann wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:16 am
Jeff V wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:01 am
Jaymann wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:31 pm
LordMortis wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:23 pm
Holman wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:18 pm Re: misogyny.

Remember that Hillary Clinton got three million more votes than Trump. And that was Hillary Clinton.
How'd that work out for us?
Ironically, as I have said before, if Clinton wins she gets blamed for Covid and we could have seen a Florida Man victory in 2020. Instead we get Biden and a weakened GOP.
You're assuming that the Trump response was the best that could have been hoped for. What if Hillary managed it better, mitigating the damaging thus far by, say, 20%? It's still a hell of a thing to deal with, but I think she would have done so without the apathy shown by the mangerine.
She got crucified when four died at Benghazi. You think she could have survived 300 to 500 per day?
Because of double-standards ,probably not. But still, her response would have been far more compassionate, for starters, she wouldn't have been calling it a "hoax." And the death toll might not have been so high has a result.
Somebody with credentials recently found that US casualties would be 40% lighter if the US had responded comparably to comparable countries. As we close in on 500k dead, 200k of them can be laid at trump's feet, at least hypothetically.

'Course, that example wouldn't exist for reference, so Pres. Hillary would be taking heat for 300k dead.
The other thing is that President Hillary being in place would've entirely changed the partisan dynamic, especially since Democrats would've been completely annihilated in the 2018 mid-terms and McConnell would've been full on blocking everything in Congress. Very very unlikely that the CARES Act happens, for example.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:04 pm Very very unlikely that the CARES Act happens, for example.
I don't think that tracks. Everyone including crucially the business leadership in the nation was calling out for help. The GOP 'CARES' equivalent would have been less "decent" though and more partisan aid. It would have been some unemployment support but too small an amount and too short a period for example.

Speaking to the broader discussion, what would have been very different would be the President wouldn't be injecting chaos into the whole system. Any comparison of our peers is just unmeasurable because none of them dealt with a leader who not only undermined public confidence in the system, but pitted health officials against the public, lied about the disease, and touted miracle cures. He also likely had international impact. The 40% differential is a starting point based on how it actually went but America still leads to some extent even with Trump. Was there anti-mask and anti-science impact exported by Trump? I suspect yes. He undermined the WHO. He made the worldwide effort weaker.
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Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

Post by El Guapo »

malchior wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:51 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:04 pm Very very unlikely that the CARES Act happens, for example.
I don't think that tracks. Everyone including crucially the business leadership in the nation was calling out for help. The GOP 'CARES' equivalent would have been less "decent" though and more partisan aid. It would have been some unemployment support but too small an amount and too short a period for example.

Speaking to the broader discussion, what would have been very different would be the President wouldn't be injecting chaos into the whole system. Any comparison of our peers is just unmeasurable because none of them dealt with a leader who not only undermined public confidence in the system, but pitted health officials against the public, lied about the disease, and touted miracle cures. He also likely had international impact. The 40% differential is a starting point based on how it actually went but America still leads to some extent even with Trump. Was there anti-mask and anti-science impact exported by Trump? I suspect yes. He undermined the WHO. He made the worldwide effort weaker.
Yeah, I don't mean to say that nothing would have passed, but it wouldn't have been anything like the CARES Act. McConnell would've had a much bigger Senate majority, plus the GOP probably controls the House too. McConnell would've had every incentive to not help the economy beyond a minimum amount in order to set up the GOP's 2020 candidate. So it's probably a few patchwork pieces of aid oriented around helping corporations that would've been a fraction of the size.

But yeah, the flipside is that there would've been competent executive authority in place from the beginning.
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