The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

For discussion of religion and politics

Moderators: LawBeefaroni, $iljanus

Post Reply
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by malchior »

It isn't interesting at all. It is ridiculous and this *IS* actually basically conspiracy theory stuff. A Murdoch-verse site wrote an article referencing a substack article talking about a Chinese defector based on some Twitter rumors. No actual sourcing at all.
User avatar
Anonymous Bosch
Posts: 10512
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 6:09 pm
Location: Northern California [originally from the UK]

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Anonymous Bosch »

malchior wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 8:08 pm It isn't interesting at all. It is ridiculous and this *IS* actually basically conspiracy theory stuff. A Murdoch-verse site wrote an article referencing a substack article talking about a Chinese defector based on some Twitter rumors. No actual sourcing at all.
Granted, it's mostly rumour at this point, which the story makes perfectly evident, and I also emphasized. But let's not pretend commenting upon and citing rumours is somehow beneath you here. :P
"There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, the duty to take the consequences." — P. J. O'Rourke
User avatar
El Guapo
Posts: 41243
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:01 pm
Location: Boston

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by El Guapo »

It's the kind of thing that *could* be interesting, but there's a lot of contingencies involved. And the article itself doesn't even say that the defector is saying that the pandemic resulted from a lab leak, it just says that rumors say that he may be giving some details on the origin of the pandemic, including information on the Wuhan virology lab.

Soo...we're still in "we'll see" mode. It is true that a defector or other whistleblower is one of the few ways that a 'lab leak' could start to be semi-proven, but maybe maybe maybe.

Also I love "Murdoch-verse".
Black Lives Matter.
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:04 am It's the kind of thing that *could* be interesting, but there's a lot of contingencies involved. And the article itself doesn't even say that the defector is saying that the pandemic resulted from a lab leak, it just says that rumors say that he may be giving some details on the origin of the pandemic, including information on the Wuhan virology lab.
Even if I had any confidence this was true, the rumors indicate the defection occured back in February. A very cynical read is the slow roll change away from dismissing the lab leak is due to this but that's also conspiracy-lite.
Soo...we're still in "we'll see" mode. It is true that a defector or other whistleblower is one of the few ways that a 'lab leak' could start to be semi-proven, but maybe maybe maybe.
Adjusted for credibility and need to lie/mislead.
Also I love "Murdoch-verse".
"Your home for alternative facts!"
User avatar
Little Raven
Posts: 8608
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 10:26 am
Location: Austin, TX

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Little Raven »

The debate continues.
Increasingly, though, scientists are expressing uncertainty. “I’m completely open-minded about the possibilities,” Akiko Iwasaki, a Yale immunologist, told The Times. “There’s so little evidence for either of these things, that it’s almost like a tossup.”

And it could very well stay that way. “The maddening aspect of this story is that — despite the big fuss being made right now — the facts on both sides are still incredibly thin,” the science journalist and former Times reporter Donald McNeil Jr. told The Post. “This debate isn’t over, and it won’t be until more facts are unearthed — if they ever are.”

...

But the lab leak theory has also attracted interest as a cautionary tale about groupthink, political polarization and overlapping crises of expertise. In the United States, one of the theory’s earliest high-profile promoters was Republican Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas, a China hawk and a loyal ally of former President Donald Trump, who argued in February of 2020 that “China lied” about the origins of the virus and suggested it had come from a “super-lab.” In short order, the Trump administration and his campaign started suggesting the pandemic was a Chinese plot to derail his re-election.

This politicization of the inquiry into the virus’s origins gave rise to a false consensus in parts of the press. “It is understandable that authorities, including public health experts and journalists, responded to the crisis with initial confusion,” the journalist Jonathan Chait writes. “But they erred on the side of certainty when they ought to have erred on the side of uncertainty. And the false certainty they embraced at the outset of 2020 hardened into a dogma that they did not question for far too long.”

Even starker reversals in consensus around masking and aerosol transmission suggest that public-health authorities also have some introspection to do. “Science values possibility, but people value certainty,” Maddie Bender writes in Vice. “So far, science communication hasn’t been able to bridge the two successfully. And during the largest public health crisis of a generation, that disconnect has had disastrous consequences.”
/. "She climbed backwards out her
\/ window into Outside Over There."
User avatar
Little Raven
Posts: 8608
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 10:26 am
Location: Austin, TX

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Little Raven »

Dr. Tufekci gives a long write up of what we do and don't know.

Most interesting to me, it seems like lots of people who know things are changing their tune.
Several scientists who signed The Lancet letter denouncing the consideration of anything but natural origins have since said they are more open to lab involvement. One, Bernard Roizman, an emeritus virologist at the University of Chicago with four honorary professorships from Chinese universities, said he was leaning toward believing there was a lab accident.

“I’m convinced that what happened is that the virus was brought to a lab, they started to work with it,” he told The Wall Street Journal, “and some sloppy individual brought it out.” He added, “They can’t admit they did something so stupid.”

Charles Calisher of Colorado State University, another signatory, recently told ABC News that “there is too much coincidence” to ignore the lab-leak theory and he now believes “it is more likely that it came out of that lab.”

Peter Palese, the virologist who wrote about the 1977 flu pandemic, said that “a lot of disturbing information has surfaced since The Lancet letter I signed” and that he wants an investigation to come up with answers.

Other scientists have also said they have changed their minds. One, James Le Duc, the recently retired director of the Galveston National Laboratory, a major lab that studies the coronavirus and that trained many of the Wuhan biosafety specialists, said in May that it was “important to look closely at the laboratory conditions and explore what was being done where and have a serious investigation.”

Ian Lipkin, the director of the Center for Infection and Immunity at Columbia University and a co-author of an influential article in Nature Medicine that argued in favor of a natural origin in March 2020, is also now more skeptical. “People should not be looking at bat viruses in BSL-2 labs,” he told the science reporter Donald G. McNeil Jr. last month. “My view has changed.”
/. "She climbed backwards out her
\/ window into Outside Over There."
User avatar
Kraken
Posts: 43688
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:59 pm
Location: The Hub of the Universe
Contact:

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Kraken »

It's sad that trump poisoned even considering the possibility by promoting it as certainty. This could turn out to be the killer entry in Things trump got sort of right, more or less.

I believe that we'll never have enough data to settle the question, and it will wind up as an article of faith on both sides. I hate those.
User avatar
Kurth
Posts: 5882
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2005 1:19 am
Location: Portland

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Kurth »

Yep. And it’s sad that in this day of stupid political polarization (based on tribes rather than any actual cogent ideology) we are divided into two camps on this issue when we all should be seeking an unbiased and objective answer.
Just 'cause you feel it, doesn't mean it's there -- Radiohead
Do you believe me? Do you trust me? Do you like me? 😳
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by malchior »

Kurth wrote: Sat Jun 26, 2021 12:33 amYep. And it’s sad that in this day of stupid political polarization (based on tribes rather than any actual cogent ideology) we are divided into two camps on this issue when we all should be seeking an unbiased and objective answer.
It also doesn't matter much. Whether or not it happened, assume it did and design new safety protocols to address the risk/threats knowing the consequences that have been wrought. We have a modern pandemic. We should be in learning mode to figure out what did and didn't work. We can abstract that, get everyone to agree on acceptable practices, and get everyone on board. Success would be much easier without all the near pointless finger pointing.
User avatar
Zaxxon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 28118
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:11 am
Location: Surrounded by Mountains

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Zaxxon »

malchior wrote: Sat Jun 26, 2021 5:33 am We can abstract that, get everyone to agree on acceptable practices, and get everyone on board.
Sweet summer child.
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by malchior »

Zaxxon wrote: Sat Jun 26, 2021 8:36 am
malchior wrote: Sat Jun 26, 2021 5:33 am We can abstract that, get everyone to agree on acceptable practices, and get everyone on board.
Sweet summer child.
In the hard sciences on a very focused topic? You don't need massive international frameworks and it's doable. This isn't the type of thing that should be hard. In the end it will be the opposite. Our broken politics make something achievable nearly impossible. The evidence hasn't changed (and probably won't) but now we have 'very serious people' talking about how they believe it was a lab leak without evidence. We are just broadcasting how we aren't fit to be leaders anymore. The world will adapt accordingly.
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Smoove_B »

An article in Bloomberg today, composed by interviewing the last and only foreign virologist to work in the Wuhan lab:
Anderson said no one she knew at the Wuhan institute was ill toward the end of 2019. Moreover, there is a procedure for reporting symptoms that correspond with the pathogens handled in high-risk containment labs.

“If people were sick, I assume that I would have been sick—and I wasn’t,” she said. “I was tested for coronavirus in Singapore before I was vaccinated, and had never had it.”

Not only that, many of Anderson’s collaborators in Wuhan came to Singapore at the end of December for a gathering on Nipah virus. There was no word of any illness sweeping the laboratory, she said.

“There was no chatter,” Anderson said. “Scientists are gossipy and excited. There was nothing strange from my point of view going on at that point that would make you think something is going on here.”
But you don't have to take her word for it, she just worked there until the end of 2019.

On origins:
It’s not that it’s impossible the virus spilled from there. Anderson, better than most people, understands how a pathogen can escape from a laboratory. SARS, an earlier coronavirus that emerged in Asia in 2002 and killed more than 700 people, subsequently made its way out of secure facilities a handful of times, she said.

If presented with evidence that such an accident spawned Covid-19, Anderson “could foresee how things could maybe happen,” she said. “I’m not naive enough to say I absolutely write this off.”

And yet, she still believes it most likely came from a natural source. Since it took researchers almost a decade to pin down where in nature the SARS pathogen emerged, Anderson says she’s not surprised they haven’t found the “smoking gun” bat responsible for the latest outbreak yet.
On Gain of Function research:
Anderson did concede that it would be theoretically possible for a scientist in the lab to be working on a gain of function technique to unknowingly infect themselves and to then unintentionally infect others in the community. But there’s no evidence that occurred and Anderson rated its likelihood as exceedingly slim.

Getting authorization to create a virus in this way typically requires many layers of approval, and there are scientific best practices that put strict limits on this kind of work. For example, a moratorium was placed on research that could be done on the 1918 Spanish Flu virus after scientists isolated it decades later.

Even if such a gain of function effort got clearance, it’s hard to achieve, Anderson said. The technique is called reverse genetics.

“It’s exceedingly difficult to actually make it work when you want it to work,” she said.

Anderson’s lab in Singapore was one of the first to isolate SARS-CoV-2 from a Covid patient outside China and then to grow the virus. It was complicated and challenging, even for a team used to working with coronaviruses that knew its biological characteristics, including which protein receptor it targets. These key facets wouldn’t be known by anyone trying to craft a new virus, she said. Even then, the material that researchers study—the virus’s basic building blocks and genetic fingerprint—aren’t initially infectious, so they would need to culture significant amounts to infect people.
Final thoughts:
Despite this, Anderson does think an investigation is needed to nail down the virus’s origin once and for all. She’s dumbfounded by the portrayal of the lab by some media outside China, and the toxic attacks on scientists that have ensued.

...

The elements known to trigger infectious outbreaks—the mixing of humans and animals, especially wildlife—were present in Wuhan, creating an environment conducive for the spillover of a new zoonotic disease. In that respect, the emergence of Covid-19 follows a familiar pattern. What’s shocking to Anderson is the way it unfurled into a global contagion.

“The pandemic is something no one could have imagined on this scale,” she said. Researchers must study Covid's calamitous path to determine what went wrong and how to stop the spread of future pathogens with pandemic potential.

“The virus was in the right place at the right time and everything lined up to cause this disaster.”
And there you go
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Smoove_B »

Just seeing an article that was posted on Friday regarding the facts and gaps on the origins of the coronavirus. Think of it as a running account on the information available.

Here's the Twitter thread summarizing and discussing it.


This might be the most extensive article written in support of natural origins of Covid-19 that I've seen. I think this was an incredibly well-written piece @factcheckdotorg @jjmcdona with well-rounded quotes from respected experts in the field.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by noxiousdog »

This is actually the most pertinent thing in the whole article.
Even then, the material that researchers study—the virus’s basic building blocks and genetic fingerprint—aren’t initially infectious, so they would need to culture significant amounts to infect people.
We need to be realistic when having this conversation. In a laboratory setting with people who know what they are doing, the chances of an accidental COVID-19 infection must be mindbogglingly small.
1) they'd have to culture some crazy amount of viral particles.
2) then they'd have to inhale it.

In an individual setting, COVID-19 just isn't that contagious. It takes a carrier spewing millions (billions?) of virus particles into the air and someone else inhaling enough of them. There are certainly situations that make this possible and amongst a community there's enough situations to cause it to happen regularly. Think of it as you winning the lottery (super unlikely) vs anyone winning the lottery (very likely). Likewise with the seasonal flu, it's millions of animals around millions of humans that allows transmission. Not one animal in a lab.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Smoove_B »

The article I shared from Bloomberg yesterday is now in Newsweek, for anyone interested.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Anonymous Bosch
Posts: 10512
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 6:09 pm
Location: Northern California [originally from the UK]

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Anonymous Bosch »

noxiousdog wrote: Mon Jun 28, 2021 10:44 am In a laboratory setting with people who know what they are doing…
Yeah, about that…

Video shows Wuhan lab scientists admit to being bitten by bats
taiwannews.com.tw wrote:Chinese scientists shown using little to no PPE while handling bats in wild, samples in lab

Image
Swelling on team member's limb after bat bite. (CCTV screenshot)

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A video released two years before the start of the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic shows Wuhan Insitute of Virology (WIV) scientists being cavalier toward protective equipment and being bitten by bats that carry deadly viruses such as SARS, demonstrating a lax safety culture in the lab.

On Dec. 29, 2017, Chinese state-run TV released a video designed to showcase Shi Zhengli, (石正麗), also known as "Bat Woman," and her team of scientists at the WIV in their quest to find the origin of SARS. Despite the fact that the scientists work in a biosafety level 4 lab, they show a shocking disregard for safety when handling potentially infectious bats both in the wild and in the lab.

From 4:45 to 4:56, a scientist can be seen holding a bat with his bare hands. Team members from 7:44 to 7:50 can be seen collecting potentially highly infectious bat feces while wearing short sleeves and shorts and with no noticeable personal protective equipment (PPE) other than gloves.

From 8:31 to 8:34, some team members can be seen wearing complete hazmat suits while many others are interacting with them in ordinary clothing and scrub caps and still others have no head covering at all. The camera then cuts to a container full of live, thrashing bats.

Rather than describing any concern about infection from the bats, one scientist relays his harrowing tale of sliding down the top of a cave and nearly falling down a waterfall and drowning. From the 8:42-8:47 mark, one team member is wearing full scrubs, mask, and scrub cap, while another is in street clothes, scrub cap, and mask, and the third person, possibly Shi, is handing samples with her bare hands.

The narrator then states that even though the scientists are wearing gloves, the risk of being injured by a bat bite "still exists." Virus researcher Cui Jie (崔杰) relates his experiences of being bitten from 8:47 to 8:50.

He said that the bat's fangs went right through his glove, which was likely nitrile. He described the feeling as "like being jabbed with a needle." The video then cuts to a person's limb showing swelling after a bat bite.

The narrator points out the fact that bats can carry a variety of potent viruses, including rabies. He then states that team members are injected with the rabies vaccine before each field sampling.
"There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, the duty to take the consequences." — P. J. O'Rourke
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by malchior »

I think it's pretty safe to assume that field work protocols are quite different from lab safety protocols with pathogens. Allowing that the video shows looser standards than the US (one version from the here - calling for nitrile over leather), the article says the risk is more rabies than anything else. In any case, it is pretty inconclusive to the question at hand unless there is evidence that the lab protocols were similarly lax and not followed. The expert quoted in the article Smoove_B linked says that they had excellent protocols and she saw them follow them.
User avatar
Anonymous Bosch
Posts: 10512
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 6:09 pm
Location: Northern California [originally from the UK]

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Anonymous Bosch »

malchior wrote: Mon Jun 28, 2021 5:40 pm In any case, it is pretty inconclusive to the question at hand unless there is evidence that the lab protocols were similarly lax and not followed.

taiwannews.com.tw wrote:From 10:51 to 11:12, the video cuts to three lab technicians handling samples as the narrator describes "three live viruses" collected from Yunan. None are wearing masks.



Another disturbing practice was the apparent lack of the proper use of PPE when handling the viral samples in the lab.
"There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, the duty to take the consequences." — P. J. O'Rourke
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by malchior »

Its really surprising this thread attracted this sort of (maybe) bot.
User avatar
Unagi
Posts: 26376
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2006 5:14 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Unagi »

WhitePride wrote: Mon Jun 28, 2021 8:46 pm No bot here. Was hoping for intelligent discussion.
So bring some.
What’s your discussion about the topic?


You seem to want to talk about Biden here.

As far as getting to the truth, can you seriously give us any information or specifics. Is there some ‘getting to the truth’ examples from our previous administration you can give as examples?
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by malchior »

Anonymous Bosch wrote: Mon Jun 28, 2021 7:40 pm
malchior wrote: Mon Jun 28, 2021 5:40 pm In any case, it is pretty inconclusive to the question at hand unless there is evidence that the lab protocols were similarly lax and not followed.

taiwannews.com.tw wrote:From 10:51 to 11:12, the video cuts to three lab technicians handling samples as the narrator describes "three live viruses" collected from Yunan. None are wearing masks.



Another disturbing practice was the apparent lack of the proper use of PPE when handling the viral samples in the lab.
LOL. Hmm. Let's weigh this "evidence". I just clicked into the video. I have no idea what they are saying but I suppose I'll trust the translation of a Taiwanese news agency about a Chinese state television video. I also guess we are supposed to believe these folks are cavalierly handling live viruses in the lab with the camera crew standing there. That *totally makes sense*. I mean they totally wouldn't have done a puff piece where they say 'look like you are doing science'. On the other hand we have the opinion of an actual expert who worked there.
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by noxiousdog »

Smoove, do you think there could be enough virus transmitted via a bite (bat or otherwise) to transmit SARS-COV-2? Seems unlikely for a respiratory disease, but I don't really have enough data to know.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Smoove_B »

Collecting bats for lab sampling is a bit out of my wheelhouse. Animal samples I would have collected were because of an animal bite or for sentinel monitoring (like dead crows).

I would hope people going into heavily populated bat caves are wearing some type of respiratory protection, as would be generally recommended.

I would not expect someone collecting bats from trees (or anywhere outside) to be wearing a respirator or even a face mask, though maybe protocols would suggest wearing an N95, I'd need to research that. I would expect bite-resistant gloves, but that would be for protection against rabies, not SARS. It would make more sense to be in goggles or a face shield to protect against saliva spray in to the eyes (rabies) than to be worried about respiratory exposure, but I could be totally off here.

So yeah, I wouldn't be worried about SARS from a bat bite. I'd be quite concerned about rabies. However, it's possible that the lab staff have a vaccination protocol for their animal collection teams where anyone involved is already vaccinated against rabies. I never was, but my exposure to live, crazed animals was limited. I wouldn't want to be bitten (even if I was protected by vaccination), but bite-resistant gloves are pretty difficult to work with, especially for tiny creatures. The nitrile gloves might have been a "bare minimum" option knowing they were vaccinated against rabies.

I so difficult to comment on these videos because I have no idea what I'm looking at - just those translations and the knowledge a news crew is in there filming with the (as pointed out).

I'd love for an actual field research virologist to comment on them, but I haven't seen anyone (anywhere) mention these videos in any capacity.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Smoove_B »

I can't offer more insight to the videos, but I can share information about bats being bats:
In the past month, we’ve seen a second wave of interest in the theory that the Covid-19 pandemic began with a lab leak. Last spring, the media accurately reported the scientific consensus that Covid (also known as SARS CoV-2) is a natural virus that probably evolved much the same way as the last two deadly human coronaviruses, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-COV) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-COV): namely, from bats, probably by way of an intermediate species like a raccoon dog, a ferret badger, or even a feral cat. Ever since the SARS outbreak of 2002-2003, after all, paper after paper and countless popular pieces have warned that sooner or later, nature would produce the next big SARS.

Now, some—latching onto new reporting, researchers’ open letter to Science magazine calling for greater investigation into the virus’s origins, and the Biden administration’s willingness to use the possibility of a lab leak to demand more transparency from China—argue media outlets were too quick to dismiss the lab leak theory. Substacker Matt Yglesias even called the media’s deeply skeptical coverage of lab leak theories a “fiasco” and “a huge fuckup.”
On trying to find the animal reservoir:
If, after all these months, investigators still can’t find Covid in nature, the reasoning goes, then maybe it’s not natural after all. “80,000 animals have been sampled since, with not one shred of connection to Covid found,” author James Surowecki scoffed on Twitter. Similar reasoning led Trump’s former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb to suggest on “Face the Nation” last month that the case for a natural origin of Covid has weakened.
It took 15 years to definitively trace SARS to bats.

80,000 samples sounds like a lot, but it’s nothing in a country like China that boasts over 7,500 native species of vertebrates. Besides, many of the animals tested in the first wave were pigs, chickens, and cows from farms across China, exotic farmed animals, and zoo animals. And each since scientists often sample multiple bodily fluids per animal, 80,000 samples doesn’t even mean 80,000 individual animals. Critically, these samples appear to have been taken without any known or suspected link to early human cases of Covid. The secret to viral detective work is shoe-leather epidemiology: You’re most likely to find the earlier hosts if you start with early human cases of the mystery virus and take samples from their pets, their livestock, etc—not from random populations.
Location:
And it’s not as if bat coronavirus hunters are coming up empty. New SARS-like bat coronaviruses are being found all the time, in addition to the hundreds of similar viruses were already known to science. Experts have been warning us for years that any one of these common, natural bat viruses could mutate and start a pandemic, since bat colonies are constantly producing new SARS-type coronaviruses. One four-year study of wild Chinese horseshoe bats found that just over 9 percent of the animals carried a SARS-type coronavirus. The adorable flying mammals who give us tequila are perfect viral incubators: they like to roost with other species of bats and their relatively long lives give viruses plenty of time to mix and match. Interspecies jumps—even between kinds of bats—are a great way to select for new mutations.

China’s economy has grown explosively over the past 25 years. Development is bringing people closer to bats and other wildlife through deforestation, mining, construction, and even bat cave tourism. The $80 billion wild animal trade incentivizes trappers to spelunk around in remote areas where they may encounter bats or animals infected by bats. Moreover, demand for wild animals as luxury items brought a steady stream of animals from the rural south to major cities including Wuhan. So it’s not that surprising that the first major outbreak of Covid happened in Wuhan, a city of 11 million spread over 3200 square miles, which is known as the Chicago of China because it so accessible by air, rail, road, and water. You can get on the fast train in Wuhan and be Guandong Province, the home of the original SARS outbreak, in under four hours.
SIDEBAR: Bats? Tequila? What?

read more

Back to the virus:
While we can’t rule out the possibility that Covid-19 was genetically engineered, even leading lab-leakers agree that it bears no apparent signs of genetic manipulation. It looks like a perfectly natural virus. And to alter a virus in a way that leaves no traces, you have to start with a virus that’s extremely similar to the virus you end up with.

“Even if you’re doing the most sophisticated gain of function research you could possibly be doing, you have to start with a virus that’s at least close. We would estimate 99%, [or] even higher than that, 99.9,” Dr. Robert F. Garry, an expert on the molecular mechanisms of viral pathogenesis at the Tulane University School of Medicine and a co-author of an influential paper arguing for the natural origins of Covid, told the podcast This Week In Virology.

Furthermore, he told me by email, there’s no way to use laboratory tricks to overcome this need for a close source virus. Even if researchers were to cut and paste different natural viruses together, each component virus would have to be in the 99 percent similarity range.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Jun 29, 2021 10:12 am Collecting bats for lab sampling is a bit out of my wheelhouse. Animal samples I would have collected were because of an animal bite or for sentinel monitoring (like dead crows).

I would hope people going into heavily populated bat caves are wearing some type of respiratory protection, as would be generally recommended. I would not expect someone collecting bats from trees (or anywhere outside) to be wearing a respirator or even a face mask, though maybe protocols would suggest wearing an N95, I'd need to research that.

I would expect bite-resistant gloves, but that would be for protection against rabies, not SARS. It would make more sense to be in goggles or a face shield to protect against saliva spray in to the eyes (rabies) than to be worried about respiratory exposure, but I could be totally off here.
I found the NPS procedures I linked above and this this Australian guide. It seems like general principles and indicates different Universities and facilities would have their own standards. I haven't found anything specifically talking about virology. Though it's probably a small enough population that standards are well-known or published inside the institutions.
So yeah, I wouldn't be worried about SARS from a bat bite. I'd be quite concerned about rabies. However, it's possible that the lab staff have a vaccination protocol for their animal collection teams where anyone involved is already vaccinated against rabies. I never was, but my exposure to live, crazed animals was limited. I wouldn't want to be bitten (even if I was protected by vaccination), but bite-resistant gloves are pretty difficult to work with, especially for tiny creatures. The nitrile gloves might have been a "bare minimum" option knowing they were vaccinated against rabies.
That was my take.
I'd love for an actual field research virologist to comment on them, but I haven't seen anyone (anywhere) mention these videos in any capacity.
As would I. I always hesitate to question experts through my layman's eyes. I can apply a common sense framework (as above). It just seems like years of experience outweigh these amateur takes which are being applied in a politicized framework.
User avatar
Daehawk
Posts: 63524
Joined: Sat Jan 01, 2005 1:11 am

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Daehawk »

I dont read this thread and haven't posted in it but do know of it. So Ill post this link which I saw today and see if you think its helpful or interesting just in case.


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/25/opin ... s-lab.html
--------------------------------------------
I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake.
http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Smoove_B »

OpEd on the Lab leak theory:
So yes, we absolutely need to keep open minds and constantly question. We do need to make sure that the science is communicated effectively (dogmatic pronouncements one way or another are almost always a mistake). And we do need to make sure science is done well and in a trustworthy manner, including being transparent about conflicts of interest and political pressures that may twist its representation.

Let me be crystal clear: Early on, the lab leak theory was not handled well. Continued investigation (minus racist overtones, please) is warranted. But public health positions should still be informed by science, not fearmongering or ideologically driven speculation, even if the science-informed decision turns out to be wrong because the science evolves. And even if some outlandish ideologically driven speculation turns out to be true, that doesn't mean giving in to conspiracy theory rants is a rational way to make future decisions.

The truth is out there. And science can nudge us closer.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Smoove_B »

You know you've hit the big time when you're now part of Snopes:
Snopes does not seek to prove or disprove a laboratory origin for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Instead, Snopes challenges the notion that the “evidence” propelling this purported change in narrative is valid. Overwhelmingly, this alleged new information principally stems from a series of self-referential blog posts. That body of work generally repeats the same broad scientific arguments, despite the fact that all the posts — at least in part — rely upon misinterpretations of, or false statements about, the science on which their case is built.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
User avatar
hepcat
Posts: 51302
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 3:02 pm
Location: Chicago, IL Home of the triple homicide!

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by hepcat »

Have they added a section on Snopes that tells everyone that it's true that Rand Paul's neighbor is a goddamn national treasure and a hero?

<I really, really can't stand that son of a bitch Rand>
Covfefe!
User avatar
Daehawk
Posts: 63524
Joined: Sat Jan 01, 2005 1:11 am

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Daehawk »

I keep waiting on the bell for round 2.
--------------------------------------------
I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake.
http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
User avatar
Max Peck
Posts: 13681
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:09 pm
Location: Down the Rabbit-Hole

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Max Peck »

I can't help but feel like a more appropriate title for this thread would be "The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Rehabilitate the Donald Trump Narrative."

But that's probably just me... :coffee:
"What? What? What?" -- The 14th Doctor

It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
User avatar
Zaxxon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 28118
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:11 am
Location: Surrounded by Mountains

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Zaxxon »

Pat Rothfuss with the tweet of the day. Vid from earlier in the week, but nice summary by Rothfuss...

malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by malchior »

He is both right and wasting precious time dicking around on Twitter when he needs to finish that damn 3rd book. :)
User avatar
Zaxxon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 28118
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:11 am
Location: Surrounded by Mountains

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Zaxxon »

malchior wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 3:08 pm He is both right and wasting precious time dicking around on Twitter when he needs to finish that damn 3rd book. :)
Image
User avatar
hepcat
Posts: 51302
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 3:02 pm
Location: Chicago, IL Home of the triple homicide!

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by hepcat »

Covfefe!
User avatar
Little Raven
Posts: 8608
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 10:26 am
Location: Austin, TX

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Little Raven »

China comes around on the lab leak issue.
As the calls for a second round of investigation into the origins of the coronavirus in China gain momentum, Beijing sharpened its attack on the United States and demanded the World Health Organization (WHO) to inspect a military base in the US instead.

"If labs are to be investigated, then the WHO experts should go to Fort Detrick," said Zhao Lijian, spokesperson of China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Zhao Lijian's statement was with regards to the theory that the coronavirus leaked from a laboratory, was transmitted to a person and then spread across the world. Since the first cases of Covid-19 were reported in Wuhan, a lab in the Chinese city is considered the prime suspect. China, however, has fiercely contested this and alleged on several occasions that supporters of the lab leak theory should be probing biological laboratories in the US, such as the one rumoured to be in Fort Detrick.
/. "She climbed backwards out her
\/ window into Outside Over There."
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by malchior »

They really are the new Soviets (except this time they may very well bury us).
User avatar
Victoria Raverna
Posts: 5012
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 2:23 am
Location: Jakarta

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Victoria Raverna »

China's reasoning why WHO need to investigate Fort Detrick:

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1230375.shtml
In July 2019, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention sent a letter to Fort Detrick, asking it to terminate most of its operations over security concerns.

In the same month, respiratory diseases of unknown origin began to appear in northern Virginia. The media reported on a large-scale outbreak of EVALI – an acronym for e-cigarette associated lung injuries – in Wisconsin that spread to several U.S. states.

In September, Maryland, where Fort Detrick is located, the reported number of patients with EVALI had doubled. The illness has symptoms very similar to COVID-19.
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by malchior »

It isn't reasoning. It is as much propaganda as our story has been except this makes them look a bit defensive.
User avatar
Victoria Raverna
Posts: 5012
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 2:23 am
Location: Jakarta

Re: The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins

Post by Victoria Raverna »

malchior wrote: Sun Aug 08, 2021 7:44 am It isn't reasoning. It is as much propaganda as our story has been except this makes them look a bit defensive.
Are they wrong with the fact? If not then it is reasonable.
Post Reply