How politically anxious are you?

For discussion of religion and politics

Moderators: LawBeefaroni, $iljanus

How alarmed are you?

10
5
11%
9
5
11%
8
17
38%
7
6
13%
6
2
4%
5
3
7%
4
3
7%
3
3
7%
2
1
2%
1
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 45

User avatar
Kurth
Posts: 5882
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2005 1:19 am
Location: Portland

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by Kurth »

This morning, Ross Douthat tells us not to be so anxious: Are We Destined for a Trump Coup in 2024?
Then keep in mind, too, that in the event of a Biden-Trump rematch in 2024, Biden, not Trump, will enjoy the presidency’s powers; Kamala Harris, not Mike Pence, will preside over the electoral count; and Trump will be four years older, unlikely to run a fourth time, and therefore somewhat less intimidating in defeat. In that landscape, it’s at least as easy to imagine him going more limply into the good night as it is to imagine top-to-bottom G.O.P. enthusiasm for the Great Coup of ’24.

Which, again, does not make the worriers unreasonable; it just makes their we’re all doomed attitude seem extremely premature.

And potentially counterproductive, I would add, for a Democratic Party whose immediate problem is a much more ordinary one: Its ideas and leaders in the last election cycle weren’t as popular as its activists imagined, and it’s therefore vulnerable not just to some future Trumpian chicanery but also to a relatively normal sort of repudiation, in which the democratic process works relatively smoothly — and rewards Republicans instead.
Just 'cause you feel it, doesn't mean it's there -- Radiohead
Do you believe me? Do you trust me? Do you like me? 😳
User avatar
ImLawBoy
Forum Admin
Posts: 14950
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:49 pm
Location: Chicago, IL
Contact:

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by ImLawBoy »

I tend to think that an anxious, motivated D base is good for the Ds. The counter to voter suppression laws is motivating the electorate. Given the generally low turnout in off-cycle elections and that things tend to bounce for the opposition party, making sure that the Ds fear that 2022 is a make-or-break election for the future of American-style democracy seems like a solid strategy for getting out the vote to counteract some of the suppression efforts.
That's my purse! I don't know you!
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by malchior »

ImLawBoy wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:14 pm I tend to think that an anxious, motivated D base is good for the Ds. The counter to voter suppression laws is motivating the electorate. Given the generally low turnout in off-cycle elections and that things tend to bounce for the opposition party, making sure that the Ds fear that 2022 is a make-or-break election for the future of American-style democracy seems like a solid strategy for getting out the vote to counteract some of the suppression efforts.
Unfortunately a great demotivator may be watching the Democrats unable to get anything done. It's hard to get people motivated over and over when they turn out in great numbers and nothing changes. It'll unfortunately reward the person who least represents the current system.
User avatar
ImLawBoy
Forum Admin
Posts: 14950
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:49 pm
Location: Chicago, IL
Contact:

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by ImLawBoy »

malchior wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:18 pm
ImLawBoy wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:14 pm I tend to think that an anxious, motivated D base is good for the Ds. The counter to voter suppression laws is motivating the electorate. Given the generally low turnout in off-cycle elections and that things tend to bounce for the opposition party, making sure that the Ds fear that 2022 is a make-or-break election for the future of American-style democracy seems like a solid strategy for getting out the vote to counteract some of the suppression efforts.
Unfortunately a great demotivator may be watching the Democrats unable to get anything done. It's hard to get people motivated over and over when they turn out in great numbers and nothing changes. It'll unfortunately reward the person who least represents the current system.
Sure, which is why you need to message things properly (I'm sure the Ds will message everything properly (NOW THAT'S SARCASM!)). Focus on how Rs are trying to take away people's right to vote, and that the Ds need to get enough Senate support to actually eliminate the filibuster so that progress can be made. It's admittedly not an easy sell, but it's better to have an anxious electorate than one that has already given up.
That's my purse! I don't know you!
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by malchior »

Kurth wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:08 pm This morning, Ross Douthat tells us not to be so anxious: Are We Destined for a Trump Coup in 2024?
He is a smart guy but I think this is one of the weakest pieces. It doesn't stand up to scrutiny. In fact, a lot of people are telling him that now. :)
What I see, by contrast, is much more in continuity with the pre-Jan. 6 dynamic in Republican politics. The Republican leadership is still doing what it did throughout Trump’s presidency, trying to talk about anything other than his sins, excesses and potential crimes. That desire to change the subject is why Cheney lost her job and why the Jan. 6 commission lost its vote; it’s also why Trump survived his impeachment in 2019 and countless lesser scandals throughout his four years. But in 2020, the Republican desire to change the subject did not translate into a willingness to foment a constitutional crisis to steal an election from Joe Biden. So why assume that this willingness will suddenly materialize in 2024?
No they only got some of the way there. That makes it ok? They started an insurrection and the leadership is hiding the bad things they do so they won't do it in the future?!? This is fantasy, wishful thinking.
Well, maybe. But I would note that for now the party’s base isn’t even demanding the scale of capital-R Resistance that Democrats offered to Trump in 2017 — the judicial injunctions and confirmation wars, the atmosphere of constant panic. Far from an illegitimate infamy, conservatives seem to regard the Biden presidency mostly as a snooze, preferring to focus their anxiety on Silicon Valley or academia instead.
I've noticed this too. I think the more likely explanation Republicans are ignoring Biden because he is sorta popular but he also is no threat. It's logic of the sort from Republicans, "If we attack him we might piss off some people we can poach. Instead, we'll continue to wedge on social issues that'll peel people off and feed red meat to the base." He is missing the GOP strategy entirely.
Which is why congressional Republicans have mostly felt comfortable treating Biden’s cabinet nominations normally, engaging in extended negotiations over infrastructure spending, working across the aisle on a big science-funding bill and generally restoring not a golden age of bipartisanship but at least the status quo of the late Obama era.
How is this a good thing? They had Obama penned in. Merrick Garland ring a bell? They want people to think the Democrats can't get anything done. They've been rewarded for obstruction over and over.
Last edited by malchior on Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Skinypupy
Posts: 20336
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 10:12 am
Location: Utah

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by Skinypupy »

YellowKing wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:09 am Also for clarification, I read this just as it sounds - *politically* anxious. In other words, what is your anxiety level about the current state of politics.

From a "general anxiety" perspective I'm probably about a 2. I tend to be pretty laid back and don't worry about much unless it's an immediate concern.
Agreed here as well. I'm very chill overall, and there's little that really bothers me in my day-to-day.

When it comes to specifically what the political chucklefucks are currently attempting (and/or mostly succeeding) in doing to our democratic systems, however, that has me extremely concerned.
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
User avatar
Jaymon
Posts: 3006
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2008 12:51 pm

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by Jaymon »

We all thought that getting rid of tRump would be it, but it wasn't. He showed them the way, now they don't need him anymore.

The D's are on the field, wanting to play ball, but the R's are in the dugout with the umpire, making changes to the rulebook. Unless the D's charge the dugout and put a stop to it, the R's will just write themselves a victory rule, and walk home with the trophy, leaving the D's standing on the field like idiots.
Bunnies like beer because its made from hops.
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by malchior »

ImLawBoy wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:27 pm
malchior wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:18 pm
ImLawBoy wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:14 pm I tend to think that an anxious, motivated D base is good for the Ds. The counter to voter suppression laws is motivating the electorate. Given the generally low turnout in off-cycle elections and that things tend to bounce for the opposition party, making sure that the Ds fear that 2022 is a make-or-break election for the future of American-style democracy seems like a solid strategy for getting out the vote to counteract some of the suppression efforts.
Unfortunately a great demotivator may be watching the Democrats unable to get anything done. It's hard to get people motivated over and over when they turn out in great numbers and nothing changes. It'll unfortunately reward the person who least represents the current system.
Sure, which is why you need to message things properly (I'm sure the Ds will message everything properly (NOW THAT'S SARCASM!)). Focus on how Rs are trying to take away people's right to vote, and that the Ds need to get enough Senate support to actually eliminate the filibuster so that progress can be made. It's admittedly not an easy sell, but it's better to have an anxious electorate than one that has already given up.
I'm 100% with you - keeping them anxious is a good play now. Despite the messaging incompetence I'm was expressing more worry about the other aspect because last year we were seeing a lot of young and even older voters in poll data showing disillusionment with democracy.

Can you imagine that they aren't anxious but more completely disillusioned after yet another series of Democratic inaction. More so they are seeing the system continue on as it has been (e.g., the DOJ protecting the institution and Presidency reflexively, broad inability to make change, etc.). If we get to mid-terms and the Democrats have got jack done, Trump hasn't been charged with any crimes, the Republicans are basically running their game there is no messaging strategy that is going to overcome the pessimism about the corruption in this system.
Last edited by malchior on Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Jag
Posts: 14435
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: SoFla

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by Jag »

I'm very concerned what the Rs have been able to achieve at the state level. They now have mechanisms to override their state's electoral winners and they have absolutely no moral issue about doing it. I strongly believe that they will reverse a D Presidential win in 2024 by changing their state electoral victories and I don't think anyone can stop it.
User avatar
$iljanus
Forum Moderator
Posts: 13676
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 3:46 pm
Location: New England...or under your bed

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by $iljanus »

I answered 10 but I’m a little more hopeful because there’s a large population that’s no longer satisfied with the status quo. There’s going to be a lot of birth and growing pains however in the interim but many reforms and shifts in thinking come through struggle, stubbornness and hard work.
Black lives matter!

Wise words of warning from Smoove B: Oh, how you all laughed when I warned you about the semen. Well, who's laughing now?
User avatar
stimpy
Posts: 6102
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 6:04 pm

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by stimpy »

$iljanus wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:42 pm I answered 10 but I’m a little more hopeful because there’s a large population that’s no longer satisfied with the status quo.
And some of that population voted for Trump for EXACTLY this reason.
He/Him/His/Porcupine
User avatar
El Guapo
Posts: 41248
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:01 pm
Location: Boston

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by El Guapo »

Jag wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:42 pm I'm very concerned what the Rs have been able to achieve at the state level. They now have mechanisms to override their state's electoral winners and they have absolutely no moral issue about doing it. I strongly believe that they will reverse a D Presidential win in 2024 by changing their state electoral victories and I don't think anyone can stop it.
Douthat is right to remind us that in any 2024 scenario Biden would be the President and Harris the VP (and electoral vote counter), which does matter quite a bit. But with the GOP strengthening their control over the state level controls, that's only so much comfort. Suppose the 2024 election comes down to AZ and MI, which Biden wins. Only the state GOP claims massive fraud, and the GOP legislatures step in and certify GOP electors from their respective states. Those would probably be the only official electoral votes sent by those states. Even with Harris as the vote counter, would Democrats be able to reject those votes in favor of Democratic electors? Especially when there's a conservative SCOTUS waiting in the wings to ignore the context and certify the GOP electors as the product of the official state-level electoral procedures (which they would be)?

At a minimum that's a massive, massive crisis with street protests and quite possibly some amount of violence. And the odds of the GOP prevailing would be pretty high.
Black Lives Matter.
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:49 pm
Jag wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:42 pm I'm very concerned what the Rs have been able to achieve at the state level. They now have mechanisms to override their state's electoral winners and they have absolutely no moral issue about doing it. I strongly believe that they will reverse a D Presidential win in 2024 by changing their state electoral victories and I don't think anyone can stop it.
Douthat is right to remind us that in any 2024 scenario Biden would be the President and Harris the VP (and electoral vote counter), which does matter quite a bit.
The only thing I could disagree with slightly here is the meaningfulness of the VP's role since it is mostly ceremonial. The calls for Pence to do something were asking him to exercise a power that isn't codified.

The more interesting angle to me is that the new House is sworn in before the EC vote. Let's say Biden/Trump and Biden wins by a similar margin. The House might be Democratic again (assuming they lose in 2022). In that case, the GOP won't have the votes to do anything anyway. Though the GOP is going to be trying their hardest to make sure their gerrymanders are solid enough to have a shot at the House even with lopsided minority. The danger truly lies at the state level tbh. The Federal stuff is usually split just enough to make it susceptible to games playing.
At a minimum that's a massive, massive crisis with street protests and quite possibly some amount of violence. And the odds of the GOP prevailing would be pretty high.
Yup 2024 is nightmare fuel but even next year is going to be a shit show in some places I imagine.
User avatar
El Guapo
Posts: 41248
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:01 pm
Location: Boston

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by El Guapo »

malchior wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:11 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:49 pm
Jag wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:42 pm I'm very concerned what the Rs have been able to achieve at the state level. They now have mechanisms to override their state's electoral winners and they have absolutely no moral issue about doing it. I strongly believe that they will reverse a D Presidential win in 2024 by changing their state electoral victories and I don't think anyone can stop it.
Douthat is right to remind us that in any 2024 scenario Biden would be the President and Harris the VP (and electoral vote counter), which does matter quite a bit.
The only thing I could disagree with slightly here is the meaningfulness of the VP's role since it is mostly ceremonial. The calls for Pence to do something were asking him to exercise a power that isn't codified.

The more interesting angle to me is that the new House is sworn in before the EC vote. Let's say Biden/Trump and Biden wins by a similar margin. The House might be Democratic again (assuming they lose in 2022). In that case, the GOP won't have the votes to do anything anyway. Though the GOP is going to be trying their hardest to make sure their gerrymanders are solid enough to have a shot at the House even with lopsided minority. The danger truly lies at the state level tbh. The Federal stuff is usually split just enough to make it susceptible to games playing.
At a minimum that's a massive, massive crisis with street protests and quite possibly some amount of violence. And the odds of the GOP prevailing would be pretty high.
Yup 2024 is nightmare fuel but even next year is going to be a shit show in some places I imagine.
One other major concern I have is that my understanding is that procedure for counting electoral votes is that if there's an objection then there's a vote, and both the House and Senate have to vote to reject in order to reject contested electoral votes. So if the Republicans can pull off the necessary state-level shenanigans to certify GOP electors despite Biden winning the state, then I think Democrats would have to have both House and Senate majorities in order to reject them (unless they want to rely on the VP's vote-counting role, which is vague as you say).

That seems like the more worrisome scenario for me - not a full 2020 redux, but that the GOP succeeds in changing the state electoral vote before it gets to Congress.
Black Lives Matter.
User avatar
Smoove_B
Posts: 54567
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 am
Location: Kaer Morhen

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by Smoove_B »

malchior wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:11 pm The danger truly lies at the state level tbh. The Federal stuff is usually split just enough to make it susceptible to games playing.
It's almost like some in Congress are doing everything they can to logjam and stop anything from happening at a federal level while elected officials at local/county/state levels are doing everything they can to seize power.

What happened in the weeks and months that followed the 2020 election is now the roadmap for the GOP in 2022 and 2024. If you're not politically nervous about how they're using the lessons learned to try again, I honestly don't know what to say.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:24 pmOne other major concern I have is that my understanding is that procedure for counting electoral votes is that if there's an objection then there's a vote, and both the House and Senate have to vote to reject in order to reject contested electoral votes. So if the Republicans can pull off the necessary state-level shenanigans to certify GOP electors despite Biden winning the state, then I think Democrats would have to have both House and Senate majorities in order to reject them (unless they want to rely on the VP's vote-counting role, which is vague as you say).

That seems like the more worrisome scenario for me - not a full 2020 redux, but that the GOP succeeds in changing the state electoral vote before it gets to Congress.
Right - that's why the states are where the action is. This EC shenanigan stuff is a fallback or worst-case scenarions. There are going to be more powerful avenues being built to steal an election. It's layered tbh. It's not hard to see that since are they are not stopping at simple discouragement of voters but they are also changing who is responsible for elections in some states. Plus we still haven't seen the new gerrymanders. There are a lot of paths available to the GOP and they seem nearly fully committed to the endeavor.
User avatar
Skinypupy
Posts: 20336
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 10:12 am
Location: Utah

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by Skinypupy »

Jaymon wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:35 pm We all thought that getting rid of tRump would be it, but it wasn't.
We all knew that Trump was merely a symptom and not the root cause.

What most of us did not expect, however, is the sheer level of abject fealty that the GOP has shown once he left office. I think we all expected the fever to break somewhat once Trump was out, but it has only accelerated.
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
Drazzil
Posts: 4723
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:54 pm

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by Drazzil »

There is *NO* way the Dems are going to turn out the number of people they will need unless they sew their balls on and DO something, legally or illegally.
Daehawk wrote:Thats Drazzil's chair damnit.
Drazzil
Posts: 4723
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:54 pm

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by Drazzil »

There is *NO* way the Dems are going to turn out the number of people they will need unless they sew their balls on and DO something, legally or illegally.
Daehawk wrote:Thats Drazzil's chair damnit.
User avatar
Dogstar
Posts: 1736
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:20 pm

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by Dogstar »

I wish the Democrats a) had some people better at messaging and b) a more effective Senate Leader. I'm now nervous because I vastly underestimated how intractable Manchin and Sinema would be on the filibuster. It's not like the Democrats can't make their case as to what they're trying to accomplish or present compromise versions of everything from infrastructure to voting rights to make Manchin and Sinema see that the issue in getting things passed isn't partisanship on the Dems side. Even weakened versions of Biden priorities would still help move the ball forward. Even getting PR and DC statehood on the docket would be good -- you're arguing that more people are going to be properly represented -- and I'm fairly sure that future Republican majorities can't un-make states.

Meanwhile, the beliefs in voting restrictions and compromised elections grow on the right, articulated into actual law on the state level. If the Dems don't get their shit together quickly and develop plans besides begging Manchin and Sinema to reconsider (which, I know, is ostensibly what I was offering -- but I'm not a paid political strategist with experience that's adept at this stuff), elections are likely to be a shitshow for them going forward. Someone noted upthread that it's tough to motivate people to turn out in big numbers when you're not getting anything done, and that's an anchor the Dems have to figure out how to shed as well. So yeah... I'm about a 7 or 8.

To badly borrow a Mr.Fed analogy from a long time ago, it's like watching not one, but two Zerg swarms assemble on the horizon and knowing the defenses you have in place are insufficient. You're basically hoping that you can turn out enough marines and vehicles and have some deft strategy and luck that will handle the leakers to prevent you from being completely overrun as the crisis is happening... but experience has taught you that it's probably going to end badly.
User avatar
Kraken
Posts: 43690
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:59 pm
Location: The Hub of the Universe
Contact:

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by Kraken »

malchior wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:18 pm
ImLawBoy wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:14 pm I tend to think that an anxious, motivated D base is good for the Ds. The counter to voter suppression laws is motivating the electorate. Given the generally low turnout in off-cycle elections and that things tend to bounce for the opposition party, making sure that the Ds fear that 2022 is a make-or-break election for the future of American-style democracy seems like a solid strategy for getting out the vote to counteract some of the suppression efforts.
Unfortunately a great demotivator may be watching the Democrats unable to get anything done. It's hard to get people motivated over and over when they turn out in great numbers and nothing changes. It'll unfortunately reward the person who least represents the current system.
Democrats won by being not-trump more than on the strength of their ideas and platform. It will be helpful if the GOP obliges them by putting forward its trumpiest foot in '22.
User avatar
Holman
Posts: 28907
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 8:00 pm
Location: Between the Schuylkill and the Wissahickon

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by Holman »

Skinypupy wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 3:00 pm
Jaymon wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:35 pm We all thought that getting rid of tRump would be it, but it wasn't.
We all knew that Trump was merely a symptom and not the root cause.

What most of us did not expect, however, is the sheer level of abject fealty that the GOP has shown once he left office. I think we all expected the fever to break somewhat once Trump was out, but it has only accelerated.
State GOPs aren't doing it for Trump. They're doing it because they know that their party is one or two fair, ungerrymandered, high-participation elections away from permanent irrelevance.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
User avatar
Zarathud
Posts: 16437
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 10:29 pm
Location: Chicago, Illinois

How politically anxious are you?

Post by Zarathud »

They’re doing it because their extremists have developed the view that the ends justify the means — on their one chosen issue of tax cuts, deregulation, guns, abortion, racism, religion, culture, freedumb or liberal tears. There are few generally principled Republicans left after the purges.
"If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." - Albert Einstein
"I don't stand by anything." - Trump
“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867
“It is the impractical things in this tumultuous hell-scape of a world that matter most. A book, a name, chicken soup. They help us remember that, even in our darkest hour, life is still to be savored.” - Poe, Altered Carbon
User avatar
Kraken
Posts: 43690
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:59 pm
Location: The Hub of the Universe
Contact:

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by Kraken »

Don't mind me...just raising my number from 6 to 8, and hoping Biden finds his footing again before Congress reconvenes.
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by malchior »

Kraken wrote: Fri Aug 20, 2021 9:35 pm Don't mind me...just raising my number from 6 to 8, and hoping Biden finds his footing again before Congress reconvenes.
I had remarked I was expecting bad but did anyone have NY Times going with a headline like this in the first year of a Biden administration on their bingo card? JFC.
Biden’s Inaccurate Claims in Defending Afghanistan Withdrawal

The president made misleading or false claims about the reaction of allies to the withdrawal, the presence of Al Qaeda and conditions for Americans traveling to the Kabul airport.
User avatar
Jaymann
Posts: 19324
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:13 pm
Location: California

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by Jaymann »

Relax. It's all part of the Illuminati program to install Kamala Harris.
Jaymann
]==(:::::::::::::>
Black Lives Matter
Drazzil
Posts: 4723
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:54 pm

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by Drazzil »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:49 pm
Jag wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:42 pm I'm very concerned what the Rs have been able to achieve at the state level. They now have mechanisms to override their state's electoral winners and they have absolutely no moral issue about doing it. I strongly believe that they will reverse a D Presidential win in 2024 by changing their state electoral victories and I don't think anyone can stop it.
Douthat is right to remind us that in any 2024 scenario Biden would be the President and Harris the VP (and electoral vote counter), which does matter quite a bit. But with the GOP strengthening their control over the state level controls, that's only so much comfort. Suppose the 2024 election comes down to AZ and MI, which Biden wins. Only the state GOP claims massive fraud, and the GOP legislatures step in and certify GOP electors from their respective states. Those would probably be the only official electoral votes sent by those states. Even with Harris as the vote counter, would Democrats be able to reject those votes in favor of Democratic electors? Especially when there's a conservative SCOTUS waiting in the wings to ignore the context and certify the GOP electors as the product of the official state-level electoral procedures (which they would be)?

At a minimum that's a massive, massive crisis with street protests and quite possibly some amount of violence. And the odds of the GOP prevailing would be pretty high.
I've already argued this, like a bazillion times. The only way the SC ever maintained legitimacy is by being "above the partisan fray" or at least being viewed as such. Ever since BvG and a ton of partisan rulings afterward has stripped the SC of any such legitimacy. I think the SC that ruled in such a manner as to even more blatantly overrule an election AGAIN may just be the tipping point where a President in power says "Uhhh... No, we're not gonna do that." The fact that Biden, political creature and weak willed establishment weasel as he is, may just lie down for the SC, but the chances that the rest of his political party may just see the huge precedent this would set for the rest of the Democrat party to get elected ever again (Don't like the result of an election? Appoint your own delegates!") They may actually force Biden to reach into his murse, find his balls and sew em on and say "Nope, the SC made the ruling, lets see it enforce it"
Daehawk wrote:Thats Drazzil's chair damnit.
User avatar
El Guapo
Posts: 41248
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:01 pm
Location: Boston

Re: How politically anxious are you?

Post by El Guapo »

Black Lives Matter.
Post Reply