Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Smoove_B]

I mean, after telling people that injecting bleach and using UV lights in their bodies might help, yeah, this kind of clear communication is a big deal.

I need to reiterate that a year ago we were being told by the President of the United States during a televised press conference that he thought injecting bleach might be a promising treatment.

[Isgrimnur]

PubMed, 1992

The widespread use of household bleach (5.25% sodium hypochlorite) as a disinfectant by IV drug users may cause an increase in the number of IV injections of this substance. We report the case of a 31-year-old man who injected less than 1 mL of bleach and then experienced transient left-sided chest pain and vomiting. The patient did not have any serious complications. This report is similar to the only other reported case in the medical literature of an IV injection of a small amount of bleach.

[LawBeefaroni]

I mean, after telling people that injecting bleach and using UV lights in their bodies might help, yeah, this kind of clear communication is a big deal.

I need to reiterate that a year ago we were being told by the President of the United States during a televised press conference that he thought injecting bleach might be a promising treatment.

So our COVID census is starting to look like October 2020 which I certainty hope doesn't mean May will be like November.


But I wanted to take a second to remember where we were a year ago.





Despite all the missteps and vaccine hesitancy and other bad news we are worlds better off now.

[malchior]

I can only imagine the outline of what it'd be like now if the electoral coin flip went the other way. Maybe a world where they were sending vaccines to red states and Trump was telling them it was so safe, etc. Instead we got a mostly competent and importantly more fair rollout.

[Smoove_B]

I honestly have been having a really hard time imagining what things would be like right now if Trump was re-elected; probably better we don't.

I am also happy to see these types of articles coming out:

Three reasons public masking is still important — no matter your vaccination status :

1) Lots of people remain vulnerable to infection who can’t get a vaccine yet — including babies and kids. Some of them also can’t wear masks.
2) New variants could put us all at higher risk.
3) When the majority still isn’t vaccinated, masks help others feel safer.

Of note:

Of course, whenever wider masking mandates are dropped, people can still wear one. And many people should, including those who have been unable or unwilling to get vaccinated and those with compromised immune systems.

In the meantime, as the pandemic drags on, so too does the burden of having to constantly make our own risk calculations. And that doesn’t stop with half of the population getting their first vaccine dose, or even their second one.

All the studies, trials, and public health recommendations focus, by necessity, on the broader population level. “But when it comes to an individual making their own decision, there’s still a huge amount of circumstance and chance at play,” Smith says. For now, “masks are just so cheap and safe and effective, I feel like it’s a reasonable thing to ask us to bear with a little while longer,” says Smith.

[Isgrimnur]

#FuckOtherPeople

- ~77M Americans

[Daehawk]

Tucker Carlson urges viewers to accost mask-wearing strangers, call 911 if they see kids in masks, prompting new calls for his firing

The divisive Fox News host is being accused of inciting lawlessness after telling his millions of viewers Monday night to confront strangers who choose to wear masks in public and call 911 if they see kids wearing a mask.

In another falsehood-filled segment on his right-wing show, Carlson questioned the scientific consensus that masks help slow the spread of COVID-19, described mask-wearing as a “sign of political obedience” and attacked those who choose to cover their faces outside as “zealots and neurotics.” He then encouraged his audience to confront mask-wearing strangers, calling them “the agressors.”

“So the next time you see someone in a mask on the sidewalk or on the bike path, do not hesitate. Ask politely but firmly, ‘Would you please take off your mask? Science shows there is no reason for you to be wearing it. Your mask is making me uncomfortable,’” Carlson said

Accost me and get a foot long knife in between your ribs.

[YellowKing]

Accost me and get a foot long knife in between your ribs.

Exactly. If you want to see Papa Bear go fucking apeshit on someone, you come harass my kid for wearing a mask.

[Victoria Raverna]

Tucker Carlson urges viewers to accost mask-wearing strangers, call 911 if they see kids in masks, prompting new calls for his firing

The divisive Fox News host is being accused of inciting lawlessness after telling his millions of viewers Monday night to confront strangers who choose to wear masks in public and call 911 if they see kids wearing a mask.

In another falsehood-filled segment on his right-wing show, Carlson questioned the scientific consensus that masks help slow the spread of COVID-19, described mask-wearing as a “sign of political obedience” and attacked those who choose to cover their faces outside as “zealots and neurotics.” He then encouraged his audience to confront mask-wearing strangers, calling them “the agressors.”

“So the next time you see someone in a mask on the sidewalk or on the bike path, do not hesitate. Ask politely but firmly, ‘Would you please take off your mask? Science shows there is no reason for you to be wearing it. Your mask is making me uncomfortable,’” Carlson said

Accost me and get a foot long knife in between your ribs.

Why he isn't in jail? US doesn't have emergency law that give government power to stop people like that?

[malchior]

Tucker Carlson urges viewers to accost mask-wearing strangers, call 911 if they see kids in masks, prompting new calls for his firing

The divisive Fox News host is being accused of inciting lawlessness after telling his millions of viewers Monday night to confront strangers who choose to wear masks in public and call 911 if they see kids wearing a mask.

In another falsehood-filled segment on his right-wing show, Carlson questioned the scientific consensus that masks help slow the spread of COVID-19, described mask-wearing as a “sign of political obedience” and attacked those who choose to cover their faces outside as “zealots and neurotics.” He then encouraged his audience to confront mask-wearing strangers, calling them “the agressors.”

“So the next time you see someone in a mask on the sidewalk or on the bike path, do not hesitate. Ask politely but firmly, ‘Would you please take off your mask? Science shows there is no reason for you to be wearing it. Your mask is making me uncomfortable,’” Carlson said

Accost me and get a foot long knife in between your ribs.

Why he isn't in jail? US doesn't have emergency law that give government power to stop people like that?

Nope. We have nearly absolute Freedom of Speech! He can pretty much say nearly anything he wants.

[Zarathud]

Tucker is trying to provoke an incident so FOX News can claim the Republicans are the ones being oppressed, not black people.

[Holman]

The narrative Tucker cares about has nothing to do with public health. It begins and ends at "Don't trust the Biden administration."

That thousands or tens of thousands might die due to this pitch alone is irrelevant to Carlson and his managers.

[Kraken]

I honestly have been having a really hard time imagining what things would be like right now if Trump was re-elected

We would be racing India to the bottom...and blaming China.

CDC update aside, I'm still masking until community spread drops to a simmer. MA has been under 1,000 new infections for the past three days, which is encouraging. If it falls below 500 I'll start to relax. If any state can vaccinate itself out of this, it's MA. We have the highest vaccinated percentage among larger states; the lowest percentage who refuse to be vaccinated (under 10%); and the lowest percentage of people missing their second shots (under 1%).

[Smoove_B]

CDC update aside, I'm still masking until community spread drops to a simmer.

I am right there with you. Additionally, I'm confident unvaccinated deplorables nationwide are going to take this as a mandate to let their freak-flags fly thinking that people will just assume (and treat them) as though they are vaccinated now in outdoor or quasi-outdoor environments.

Between Tucker's awful challenge to his viewing public and my complete lack of trust for my greater community members, I'm going to continue to say that nothing changes for me in the short term.

[Victoria Raverna]

What is the reason of the CDC update? US is running out of masks so that they want to reduce mask usage?

[Smoove_B]

What is the reason of the CDC update? US is running out of masks so that they want to reduce mask usage?

Uhhh..no.

In short, there is a belief (broadly) that if the CDC and public health appeals to the better nature of Americans and starts to broadcast all the things that are possible when people are vaccinated, it will help to encourage the vaccinate hesitant (the current group that's being focused on right now) to get themselves vaccinated. It's not a bad idea and it makes sense to try this route.

This is why it's better that I'm not in charge because my PSA would be "Get yourself vaccinated and protected because deep-down you know other people are liars."

[Kraken]

CDC update aside, I'm still masking until community spread drops to a simmer.

I am right there with you. Additionally, I'm confident unvaccinated deplorables nationwide are going to take this as a mandate to let their freak-flags fly thinking that people will just assume (and treat them) as though they are vaccinated now in outdoor or quasi-outdoor environments.

Between Tucker's awful challenge to his viewing public and my complete lack of trust for my greater community members, I'm going to continue to say that nothing changes for me in the short term.

90% effective is 10% ineffective, which gets more meaningful the more you're in contact with infected people.

[ImLawBoy]

Tucker Carlson urges viewers to accost mask-wearing strangers, call 911 if they see kids in masks, prompting new calls for his firing

The divisive Fox News host is being accused of inciting lawlessness after telling his millions of viewers Monday night to confront strangers who choose to wear masks in public and call 911 if they see kids wearing a mask.

In another falsehood-filled segment on his right-wing show, Carlson questioned the scientific consensus that masks help slow the spread of COVID-19, described mask-wearing as a “sign of political obedience” and attacked those who choose to cover their faces outside as “zealots and neurotics.” He then encouraged his audience to confront mask-wearing strangers, calling them “the agressors.”

“So the next time you see someone in a mask on the sidewalk or on the bike path, do not hesitate. Ask politely but firmly, ‘Would you please take off your mask? Science shows there is no reason for you to be wearing it. Your mask is making me uncomfortable,’” Carlson said

Accost me and get a foot long knife in between your ribs.

Why he isn't in jail? US doesn't have emergency law that give government power to stop people like that?

Nope. We have nearly absolute Freedom of Speech! He can pretty much say nearly anything he wants.

Can you imagine how such emergency powers would have been abused during the Trump presidency?

[Lorini]

In Southeast Asia folks wear masks all the time, pandemic or no pandemic. There's nothing wrong with wearing a mask and since I hate being sick, I will wear a mask anytime in a crowded place, especially in airports and on planes.

[Zaxxon]

In Southeast Asia folks wear masks all the time, pandemic or no pandemic. There's nothing wrong with wearing a mask and since I hate being sick, I will wear a mask anytime in a crowded place, especially in airports and on planes.

If there's one positive change that I'd like to see come from this whole *gestures wildly at the air*, it's for people who are around other people while sick to GTFO or wear a friggin' mask. It'd be nice for the pre-pandemic American culture of going to work while sick, traveling while coughing/sneezing, etc to finally meet its doom. The sheer arrogance and lack of concern for others that this behavior conveyed always bugged me in the past, but questioning it made people look at me as though I was from another planet.

Since this is the darkest timeline, there's likely no chance of things changing, but I'm hopeful for some reason.

[El Guapo]

In Southeast Asia folks wear masks all the time, pandemic or no pandemic. There's nothing wrong with wearing a mask and since I hate being sick, I will wear a mask anytime in a crowded place, especially in airports and on planes.

If there's one positive change that I'd like to see come from this whole *gestures wildly at the air*, it's for people who are around other people while sick to GTFO or wear a friggin' mask. It'd be nice for the pre-pandemic American culture of going to work while sick, traveling while coughing/sneezing, etc to finally meet its doom. The sheer arrogance and lack of concern for others that this behavior conveyed always bugged me in the past, but questioning it made people look at me as though I was from another planet.

Since this is the darkest timeline, there's likely no chance of things changing, but I'm hopeful for some reason.

My mom has been pushing people to wear masks for this reason for years, mostly falling on deaf ears. I guess she's been vindicated by this. I do expect that this will increase mask usage in general in the U.S., at least for a few years (I suspect that it'll become rare again within five years at the most). But yeah, I imagine in our family we'll start wearing masks at least in situations where we are going to be in large confined crowds, and in any situation where one of us is at least starting to feel under the weather.

[LawBeefaroni]

CDC update aside, I'm still masking until community spread drops to a simmer.

I am right there with you. Additionally, I'm confident unvaccinated deplorables nationwide are going to take this as a mandate to let their freak-flags fly thinking that people will just assume (and treat them) as though they are vaccinated now in outdoor or quasi-outdoor environments.

Between Tucker's awful challenge to his viewing public and my complete lack of trust for my greater community members, I'm going to continue to say that nothing changes for me in the short term.

90% effective is 10% ineffective, which gets more meaningful the more you're in contact with infected people.

At the risk of overpromising, that's not actually how vaccine efficacy % works.

One common misunderstanding is that 95% efficacy means that in the Pfizer clinical trial, 5% of vaccinated people got COVID. But that's not true; the actual percentage of vaccinated people in the Pfizer (and Moderna) trials who got COVID-19 was about a hundred times less than that: 0.04%.

What the 95% actually means is that vaccinated people had a 95% lower risk of getting COVID-19 compared with the control group participants, who weren't vaccinated. In other words, vaccinated people in the Pfizer clinical trial were 20 times less likely than the control group to get COVID-19.

COVID-19 vaccines: What does 95% efficacy actually mean?

[Blackhawk]

It'd be nice for the pre-pandemic American culture of going to work while sick, traveling while coughing/sneezing, etc to finally meet its doom. The sheer arrogance and lack of concern for others that this behavior conveyed always bugged me in the past, but questioning it made people look at me as though I was from another planet.

First you have to change the policy of punishing people who don't go to work sick. If you're living paycheck to paycheck, missing a day without sick pay may not be an option if you want to feed your kids. Others have to choose between staying home when they get sick and being able to go on vacation with the kids because they're required to use PTO for sick days if they want to be paid. And more than one company will pay you for being sick, then hold it against you when it comes to reviews/raises/promotions.

[Zaxxon]

It'd be nice for the pre-pandemic American culture of going to work while sick, traveling while coughing/sneezing, etc to finally meet its doom. The sheer arrogance and lack of concern for others that this behavior conveyed always bugged me in the past, but questioning it made people look at me as though I was from another planet.

First you have to change the policy of punishing people who don't go to work sick. If you're living paycheck to paycheck, missing a day without sick pay may not be an option if you want to feed your kids. Others have to choose between staying home when they get sick and being able to go on vacation with the kids because they're required to use PTO for sick days if they want to be paid. And more than one company will pay you for being sick, then hold it against you when it comes to reviews/raises/promotions.

Hence the unquoted 'or wear a friggin mask' part. I recognize that there's privilege involved in the GTFO option. And of course yes, we suck as a country for all sorts of reasons, including those you mentioned.

[Smoove_B]

When is a 9-11 memorial event not actually a political rally? When it's a hardcore concert:

The permit application for “September 11 Memorial” was submitted on November 2nd, 2020 by organizer Chris Parker with an email associated with The Shadow, an underground newspaper distributed on the Lower East Side. The Parks Department says that this organization has booked events at the park since at least 2006. The description for this particular event was listed as a "political rally with speakers and music," according to copies of paperwork shared with Gothamist.

However:

The Parks Department told Gothamist that several details about the nature of the event were misrepresented, including the fact that organizers stated that 100 people would be in attendance, not the 2,000+ who showed up. The Parks Department said that they "generally would not permit an event of this size in this park," even if the city was not in the midst of a pandemic.

Organizers drove a vehicle into the park, which a Parks Department spokesperson said they had not gotten permission to do; they brought in a stage, which was not listed on the permit application, and used amplified sound in conjunction with it; and the event was misrepresented to the Parks Department as a political rally, not a concert, according to the spokesperson.

But I guess technically it was a political event:

But there were moments during the show where performers did make political statements. At one point, Jimmy Gestapo, the lead singer of Murphy’s Law, compared masks to bondage (you can see video of that below). And after the show, Bloodclot frontman John Joseph responded to criticisms by comparing the event to Black Lives Matter protests last year.

[Kraken]

CDC update aside, I'm still masking until community spread drops to a simmer.

I am right there with you. Additionally, I'm confident unvaccinated deplorables nationwide are going to take this as a mandate to let their freak-flags fly thinking that people will just assume (and treat them) as though they are vaccinated now in outdoor or quasi-outdoor environments.

Between Tucker's awful challenge to his viewing public and my complete lack of trust for my greater community members, I'm going to continue to say that nothing changes for me in the short term.

90% effective is 10% ineffective, which gets more meaningful the more you're in contact with infected people.

At the risk of overpromising, that's not actually how vaccine efficacy % works.

One common misunderstanding is that 95% efficacy means that in the Pfizer clinical trial, 5% of vaccinated people got COVID. But that's not true; the actual percentage of vaccinated people in the Pfizer (and Moderna) trials who got COVID-19 was about a hundred times less than that: 0.04%.

What the 95% actually means is that vaccinated people had a 95% lower risk of getting COVID-19 compared with the control group participants, who weren't vaccinated. In other words, vaccinated people in the Pfizer clinical trial were 20 times less likely than the control group to get COVID-19.

COVID-19 vaccines: What does 95% efficacy actually mean?

Thanks for schooling me. I didn't know that.

[hitbyambulance]

Thanks for schooling me. I didn't know that.

"Not a lot of people know this..." literally

[LawBeefaroni]

Thanks for schooling me. I didn't know that.

Pretty sure I learned it on SGU or at Neurologica.

[Smoove_B]

It's not that I want to start seeing these stories, but I do suspect stories like them (localized cluster outbreaks, i.e. "super-spreader events") are going to become the norm as we continue to vaccinate more people:

REPUBLIC, Wash. — A three-day-long super-spreader event in Republic, Washington is causing a spike in COVID-19 cases in Ferry County. As of Wednesday, nearly 100 people had been infected.

The event was set up to recruit new Eagle’s Club members the weekend of April 9-11. Some said it was advertised as a protest against COVID-19 restrictions. The club president said it was simply a dinner and poker night to attract new members.

Health officials in Republic said patient zero was traced back to the event. Since then, infections have reached far into the community. The bank in town had to shut down early and brought in temporary workers. One of the only grocery stores also had limited capacity and county services have taken a hit with court cases being delayed because so many workers are either home sick or in quarantine.

“There's 95 people that have tested positive since that event,” Northeast Tri-County Health District Administrator Matt Schanz said. “And the vast majority have had some kind of exposure to that event, either by attendance, or by a secondary exposure. They're continuing to test… even today, they're continuing to be tested.”

[Smoove_B]

Figured for the data folks, you might like to read about how the death rate of COVID-19 is calculated. In short - crazy math. For those that don't want to read (because math), it's complicated.

I think the take home message after 14+ months is clear:

Ultimately, we are not entirely certain of the death rate from COVID-19. We know that it increases exponentially with age, that it’s likely to be a bit higher by age in less well-developed places (we’re working on a paper looking at this right now), and that it’s probably a bit lower than it was at the start of the pandemic. We know that the death rate is still very high, that COVID-19 is far more dangerous than seasonal influenza, and all the evidence points towards it being a nasty thing to catch for anyone who isn’t vaccinated against it.

A year on, we know a lot more, but there are still many uncertainties to contend with.

That being said, the evidence is very clear: COVID-19 is a dangerous disease. It gets worse for older people, but even for those in their 30s and 40s, the death risk is still very worrying.

[Max Peck]

I like the cut of their jib.

Population studies that have attempted to answer the question are in some ways more useful, but they also have significant drawbacks that make the evidence hard to untangle.

<Stock photo of yarn>
Caption: Stock photos of “tangle” appear to be largely untangled balls of yarn. Weird.

[Blackhawk]

Caiden has an indoor band concert on Saturday with hordes of maskless rednecks and no attendance limits. There's little circulation, but it's a big gym. I don't have any real way of skipping.

Ian and I are two weeks+ past our first shot, Michelle will be two days past her second, and Caiden will hit his first two weeks between now and then, so there's that. I'll be sporting my KN95, of course. I assume that sitting up high in the bleachers - preferably in a corner - is better than sitting down low? Or does the warm air waft the death higher up?

[gilraen]

I assume that sitting up high in the bleachers - preferably in a corner - is better than sitting down low? Or does the warm air waft the death higher up?

I would think that droplets overall tend to float downward. So higher is probably better.

[Smoove_B]

Unless they're using those ubiquitous high school gym floor fans to blow air around.

To bring this back to earlier debate, this is still one of the main points of yelling between academics. Are we more concerned about the heavy droplets (that are going to arc and fall) or the smaller droplet nuclei that are going to float up to you in the top seats?

No one knows, but the unofficial answer is that it's probably both and for now the larger, heavier drops are more concerning. In time we might learn the nuclei are also concerning but not nearly as much as the droplets.

F-ing science.

[Blackhawk]

[Smoove_B]

I'll just drop this here:

Early in the pandemic, when vaccines for the coronavirus were still just a glimmer on the horizon, the term “herd immunity” came to signify the endgame: the point when enough Americans would be protected from the virus so we could be rid of the pathogen and reclaim our lives.

Now, more than half of adults in the United States have been inoculated with at least one dose of a vaccine. But daily vaccination rates are slipping, and there is widespread consensus among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable — at least not in the foreseeable future, and perhaps not ever.

NJ and NY are throwing open the floodgates on 5/19 and removing indoor capacity regulations. They also just released a list of 16 major towns in NJ that have under 40% of adults vaccinated. I think they're all 20% vaccinated or less - major population centers. By all accounts, this is going to be a rough summer for people ~40 and under, kids in particular. Not necessarily dying, but likely clogging up hospitals. It's already happening in Alaska.

Remember:

The shift in outlook presents a new challenge for public health authorities. The drive for herd immunity — by the summer, some experts once thought possible — captured the imagination of large segments of the public. To say the goal will not be attained adds another “why bother” to the list of reasons that vaccine skeptics use to avoid being inoculated.

Yet vaccinations remain the key to transforming the virus into a controllable threat, experts said.

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the Biden administration’s top adviser on Covid-19, acknowledged the shift in experts’ thinking.

“People were getting confused and thinking you’re never going to get the infections down until you reach this mystical level of herd immunity, whatever that number is,” he said.

“That’s why we stopped using herd immunity in the classic sense,” he added. “I’m saying: Forget that for a second. You vaccinate enough people, the infections are going to go down.”

I miss the salad days of arguing about the monsters involved with the Great Barrington Declaration. Our greatest enemy is an old friend - indifference.

[Isgrimnur]

I appreciate the work you and your specialty do to try and protect the populace, despite indifferent at best, hostile at worst, audience.

[stimpy]

2nd shot in.
Other than some sudden lactating, all good.

[Zaxxon]

I miss the salad days of arguing about the monsters involved with the Great Barrington Declaration. Our greatest enemy is an old friend - indifference.

What could be a more American way to 'end' the pandemic than--after early mismanagement and amazing technological successes that give us the opportunity to soundly defeat this threat--dropping the ball at the 2 yard line and accepting failure as if it were success?

[Isgrimnur]

NJ

New Jersey will join New York and Connecticut in lifting many of its largest remaining coronavirus restrictions May 19, including eliminating set indoor capacity limits at restaurants, retail stores, and gyms, while also ending all outdoor gathering caps — though indoor mask and social distancing regulations will remain.

Gov. Phil Murphy revealed the plan Monday in a joint regional announcement with New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont, both of whom are making similar — though not identical — moves in their states.

The rollback will affect restaurants, gyms, personal services, movie theaters, stores, museums, places of worship, and amusement parks, slightly more than a year after the governors temporarily shut those businesses down as the pandemic began ravaging the region. The leaders have gradually allowed them to reopen under capacity limits and other restrictions over the past year.

But this is not quite a full reopening.

People must still wear a mask for all indoor activities unless they are eating or drinking. Plus, restaurants in New Jersey and New York must keep a six-foot distance between tables, unless there are physical barriers, which would allow for closer seating.