Finally some real news from the magic mushroom sector of which I am absurdly overweight. This is from a company that I guess is considered the leader in the space currently. Their share price is maybe double the next closest company involved in the same sector (not THAT meaningful, maybe, but just for a relative idea about what the market thinks). This is taken from The Motley Fool, so take that for what it's worth, and the headline is written in a way that typically makes me skip articles because I suspect it's bot/AI written.
My hot take is that this goes up tomorrow when people realize that the drug works. I strongly disagree with the confidence that this writer (or bot) has about the reasons for the hit today - sure, 'sell the news' is a thing, but they seem overconfident that investors assumed it worked. I wonder if news of the suicidal thoughts in 12 of the trial participants had something to do with the selling, because that was kind of highlighted in many of the articles released.
Note that trial participants were:
1. people who were identified as depressed, AND that have been shown to be resistant to typical anti-depressants
2. were taken OFF their existing meds for the trial
Here's the article/fluff piece:
Spoiler:
Compass Pathways
Key Points
The company announced positive news out of its phase IIB trial for its lead therapy.
Compass Pathways also released third-quarter numbers showing it lost less money than it did in the same period a year ago.
Investors may have been taking profits on the good news, driving the stock's price down.
What happened
Compass Pathways (NASDAQ:CMPS) saw its shares drop more than 22% on Tuesday. The biotech stock, which focuses on mental health treatment, closed at $43.06 on Monday, opened at $40.65 on Tuesday and fell as low as $30.52 in midday trading. The stock, which is down more than 6.5% for the year, has been as high as $61.69 and as low as $28.58 over the past 52 weeks.
So what
Two announcements by the company weighed on the stock price, though ironically, both were mostly positive.
The first was related to its lead therapy for treatment-resistant depression. The company, which had its IPO last year, said its phase IIB clinical trial of its COMP360 psilocybin therapy for depression showed that at its highest dosage (25mg), COMP360 found a reduction in depressive symptoms after three weeks. The drug's primary ingredient, psilocybin, is the active molecule in so-called psychedelic magic mushrooms.
Now what
It was a classic case of investors selling into positive news that drove the biotech stock down. A lot of the good news from the trial had been expected, so it was, in effect, baked into the stock's price. Until Monday, the stock had not been near $50 a share since February, and investors gladly unloaded their shares.
That may be bad news for short-term investors, but the long-term outlook for Compass is on the upswing. As of Sept. 30, the company has 49.6% more cash -- $294 million -- than it did at this time last year. And it's possible, with a successful phase 3 trial, the company could begin marketing COMP360 sometime next year or early 2023 -- meaning, it would finally have income.
Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 5:44 pm
Finally some real news from the magic mushroom sector of which I am absurdly overweight. This is from a company that I guess is considered the leader in the space currently. Their share price is maybe double the next closest company involved in the same sector (not THAT meaningful, maybe, but just for a relative idea about what the market thinks). This is taken from The Motley Fool, so take that for what it's worth, and the headline is written in a way that typically makes me skip articles because I suspect it's bot/AI written.
My hot take is that this goes up tomorrow when people realize that the drug works. I strongly disagree with the confidence that this writer (or bot) has about the reasons for the hit today - sure, 'sell the news' is a thing, but they seem overconfident that investors assumed it worked. I wonder if news of the suicidal thoughts in 12 of the trial participants had something to do with the selling, because that was kind of highlighted in many of the articles released.
Note that trial participants were:
1. people who were identified as depressed, AND that have been shown to be resistant to typical anti-depressants
2. were taken OFF their existing meds for the trial
Here's the article/fluff piece:
Spoiler:
Compass Pathways
Key Points
The company announced positive news out of its phase IIB trial for its lead therapy.
Compass Pathways also released third-quarter numbers showing it lost less money than it did in the same period a year ago.
Investors may have been taking profits on the good news, driving the stock's price down.
What happened
Compass Pathways (NASDAQ:CMPS) saw its shares drop more than 22% on Tuesday. The biotech stock, which focuses on mental health treatment, closed at $43.06 on Monday, opened at $40.65 on Tuesday and fell as low as $30.52 in midday trading. The stock, which is down more than 6.5% for the year, has been as high as $61.69 and as low as $28.58 over the past 52 weeks.
So what
Two announcements by the company weighed on the stock price, though ironically, both were mostly positive.
The first was related to its lead therapy for treatment-resistant depression. The company, which had its IPO last year, said its phase IIB clinical trial of its COMP360 psilocybin therapy for depression showed that at its highest dosage (25mg), COMP360 found a reduction in depressive symptoms after three weeks. The drug's primary ingredient, psilocybin, is the active molecule in so-called psychedelic magic mushrooms.
Now what
It was a classic case of investors selling into positive news that drove the biotech stock down. A lot of the good news from the trial had been expected, so it was, in effect, baked into the stock's price. Until Monday, the stock had not been near $50 a share since February, and investors gladly unloaded their shares.
That may be bad news for short-term investors, but the long-term outlook for Compass is on the upswing. As of Sept. 30, the company has 49.6% more cash -- $294 million -- than it did at this time last year. And it's possible, with a successful phase 3 trial, the company could begin marketing COMP360 sometime next year or early 2023 -- meaning, it would finally have income.
The CEO was on Closing Bell today. I missed it but will watch later.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
I watched it. It was interesting personality wise. From the list of traits I don't like about Kevin O'Leary, this guy simply made sound like sound business decision making. He pretty frank about chasing business doesn't make sense unless it makes them good money and pretty much entire thesis for which he tried to direct the interview was around that. That declines in recreational sales were a strategic decision. Simply put, pursuing recreational sales isn't worth the effort. Medical sales in the US and expanding into European markets is where the profit margin is taking them. Recreational users can suck it.
LordMortis wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:41 am
Heck, I want an it to RIVIAN but not at 54 billion.
How about $65b then? LOL
(Reuters) -Rivian Automotive, backed by Amazon.com Inc, on Friday significantly raised the expected offer price of its shares, with the electric vehicle manufacturer aiming for a valuation of as much as $65 billion in its initial public offering.
Electric-vehicle maker Rivian Automotive Inc. priced its initial public offering at $78 a share Tuesday night, well above its expected range and valuing the company at $77 billion on a fully diluted basis.
LordMortis wrote: ↑Thu Nov 04, 2021 9:41 am
Heck, I want an it to RIVIAN but not at 54 billion.
How about $65b then? LOL
(Reuters) -Rivian Automotive, backed by Amazon.com Inc, on Friday significantly raised the expected offer price of its shares, with the electric vehicle manufacturer aiming for a valuation of as much as $65 billion in its initial public offering.
Electric-vehicle maker Rivian Automotive Inc. priced its initial public offering at $78 a share Tuesday night, well above its expected range and valuing the company at $77 billion on a fully diluted basis.
Was about to post this. Live for trading in about 70 min. I'm tempted to dip my toes, but not sure. Certainly aspirational run rates for 2022 and 2023 that assume they won't hit the snags Tesla did.
Keeping the bat on my shoulder for RIVN. Might do some quick day trades if there is the opportunity but not buying to hold right now. I have a ton of F and they have an $8B stake at the current IPO price. AMZN has a $12B stake as well and I have some AMZN.
Interesting: F Market cap is $80B. They own $8B of RIVN which is valued at $70B in total at the $77 IPO price.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 10:27 am
I’m not really following beyond the occasional headline, but have they addressed supply issues that almost every other maker is dealing with?
I’m wondering what the first PR about slowed production due to lack of parts will do to the hopped up IPO sp.
Yeah, I'm sure they will hit bumps, and I'm sure the stock will prove volatile, esp at that valuation. But I'm also more confident in Rivian than any non-Tesla BEV manufacturer. The products seem legitimately top-of-class (granted it's currently a class that includes only Rivian), they have large-pocketed backers who have a strong incentive to do what they can to ensure success, and Scaringe seems all-in on the mission.
Might be worth a small position for the entertainment value alone.
To think that a startup car manufacturer will open its doors on Day 1 at very nearly the same market cap as not only the OG carmaker, but one that’s been around for 100 years-ish?!
I do wonder what we would have thought about that possibility, say 20 years ago. I, for one, would have laughed.
Edit: FWIW, I quit buying BTC and instead buy GBTC in the 401K. Using BTC to buy stuff is a huge tax hassle. I still have some for liquidity but new buying is going through the 401K.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 10:32 am
Re: LB
That’s mind blowing.
To think that a startup car manufacturer will open its doors on Day 1 at very nearly the same market cap as not only the OG carmaker, but one that’s been around for 100 years-ish?!
I do wonder what we would have thought about that possibility, say 20 years ago. I, for one, would have laughed.
If TSLA's carbon offsets are worth a trillion dollars, surely Rivian's are proportional.
Black Lives Matter
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
No way on earth I'd bite, but I do have high hopes for them. I may drive by their tech center at lunch today to see if they are all partying drunk in the parking lot. I so think they are doing it right but we're talking a 100 billion plus valuation for a company that will probably deliver 5000 vehicles by close of 2022 and may take a decade to show a profit. The good news is that kind of capital should help them boost production quickly, which should get them to take over the Amazon fleet quickly which should...
Still,100 billion dollars... I guess that's but 10% of Tesla, so...
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 11:48 am
Definitely not buying other than to trade.
I'm too good at bag holding and I don't have the money to play hot potato. It'd be fun if I did. Oddly enough all of my exposure is down today. T Rowe Price, Ford, and the Amazon heavy index positions. (No wait, Ford took a turn for the black)
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 11:48 am
Definitely not buying other than to trade.
Same. At $80 I'd consider a tiny position. At +50% today? I'll watch from the sidelines.
I'm heavily considering a small maybe 10 share long position. I'll probably give it a little time to settle down but still I'm not going to get too hung up on the IPO "era" price moves. Long-term they seem to have a compelling story.
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 11:48 am
Definitely not buying other than to trade.
Same. At $80 I'd consider a tiny position. At +50% today? I'll watch from the sidelines.
I'm heavily considering a small maybe 10 share long position. I'll probably give it a little time to settle down but still I'm not going to get too hung up on the IPO "era" price moves. Long-term they seem to have a compelling story.
I caved and got 10 at $99. Agree on the compelling long-term story.
LordMortis wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 3:24 pm
+1. Not a smart move on my part. If it spikes for whatever reason I can dump 5 shares. Otherwise, I just gave away $1000 which is a lot for me.
Thing is you have (nor does anyone else) no idea if you gave $1000 away or not. At this point, it's VERY much just gambling. Which personally I am totally OK with, sometimes. As long as I am truthful with myself about speculative investments, that they could go to zero as easily as double, I can sleep at night. It's not quite like buying my 'shroom stocks, but I would say buying HERE, on IPO day, makes it close.
We all know EV's are the future for the automotive industry, but the big gamble here is can THIS company be successfull in that market. Can they deliver? Will consumers LIKE their stuff? So many unknowns at this point. What makes them so special compared to others in the space? Do they deserve this obvious premium sp?
That's why I never buy IPO's. Just sooooo much unkown (which is weird, considering I am extremely risk...enthused in other areas of investing).
LordMortis wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 3:24 pm
+1. Not a smart move on my part. If it spikes for whatever reason I can dump 5 shares. Otherwise, I just gave away $1000 which is a lot for me.
Thing is you have (nor does anyone else) no idea if you gave $1000 away or not. At this point, it's VERY much just gambling. Which personally I am totally OK with, sometimes. As long as I am truthful with myself about speculative investments, that they could go to zero as easily as double, I can sleep at night. It's not quite like buying my 'shroom stocks, but I would say buying HERE, on IPO day, makes it close.
We all know EV's are the future for the automotive industry, but the big gamble here is can THIS company be successfull in that market. Can they deliver? Will consumers LIKE their stuff? So many unknowns at this point. What makes them so special compared to others in the space? Do they deserve this obvious premium sp?
That's why I never buy IPO's. Just sooooo much unkown (which is weird, considering I am extremely risk...enthused in other areas of investing).
Rivian isn't going to zero but it isn't reasonably 40 billion company much less an 80 billion company. But then Lucid is not a 65 billion company either and Rivian has more upside. People are nucking futz when it comes to valuations, so yeah, gamble. They aren't a Tesla killer, they won't be a platform advancing renewable energy as part of larger battery platform related solar and developing an Auto as a Subscription model of revenue. But they are deep in the EV space and doing it potentially better than anyone else as auto manufacturer. They have been playing the path right all along. The "problem" is with great car comes a great price tag and a lot little things to go wrong. They'll sell as many as they can produce and they have the backing to scale. They built a logistics supply chain system before building their lines. They got backers in right spaces: finance, distributions, auto. And they still did it everything outside of traditional auto.
But 80 billion for an auto OEM, much less one that will take years to ramp up. Steep in any world before 2020.
LordMortis wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 4:04 pmBut 80 billion for an auto OEM, much less one that will take years to ramp up. Steep in any world before 2020.
Feels steep in 2021!
If they produce 20K trucks a year for the next 2-3 years....$100b feels spendy. But "feels" have no place in investing. OTOH I submit that buying on IPO day is not investing, so wheeee!
$1000 is a lot of money to me so I I set 2 shares to sell at $110, 2 at $115, 2 at $120, and 2 at $125. That way if it spikes I keep two free shares. First check in this morning and I only have 6 shares of Rivian but my exposure is only $600 - $50 in short term gains and that's a bit closer to more comfortable gambling money in my current situation.
Killing the $7 a trade fee was either a great thing or horrible thing for me. I'm not sure which. I think if there was still a $7 fee, I'd have stuck with primarily buying ETFs in bulk (for me) and I'd have never started options trading, wherein they've hit me for $.65 fees than they ever would have collected in $7 trading lots. It's hard for me to say if my portfolio would look better just playing primarily the indexes. It seems like my portfolio has been on a tear, gaining 20+% a year but then the S&P has been about the same and I think my risk is less with them, even being active is more entertaining (as long as stocks only go up.)
Edit: Peeked again. Down to 4 shares. So that $400 - $90 in short term gains. I'm very comfortable with that.
Last edited by LordMortis on Thu Nov 11, 2021 12:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Dumped 9 of my 10 RVN for more than I paid for 10 yesterday, so the one remaining is on the house. Will continue to trade in/out if it proves volatile. If it keeps going up, well, at least I've got a freebie.
Peeked again, down to the two shares I didn't have on the block. That puts me at 200 - $140 short term gains. I'm very comfortable with that position those two shares now cost me about what I think the position is worth and the cost of the taste is so small I don't have to worry about being wrong.
Tempted to buy some of LB's POWW at just under $7 before earnings and put out Dec $7.50 Call for $.60. "outdoor" aka firearm stocks seem to be exploding just after earnings and rifle hunting season is about come in to bloom in the midwest... I really need to not watch the market when I don't want to any more cash out there.
Zaxxon wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 12:17 pm
Dumped 9 of my 10 RVN for more than I paid for 10 yesterday, so the one remaining is on the house. Will continue to trade in/out if it proves volatile. If it keeps going up, well, at least I've got a freebie.
I'm down to one share. I just couldn't keep at two share at $140. So now my one share very free and if it dips back below $100 I can pick up another share pretty much guilt free, even as I think $100 is over priced.
POWW with a solid earnings beat but not sure how much room to move. Was priced for a beat already.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Mon Nov 15, 2021 5:23 pm
POWW with a solid earnings beat but not sure how much room to move. Was priced for a beat already.
Yeah but if I bought at $6.90 and then took a $.60 discount on that $6.90 for a $7.50 call for Friday, I'd be sitting pretty either way. I'm just not smart enough to do such things.
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Mon Nov 15, 2021 5:23 pm
POWW with a solid earnings beat but not sure how much room to move. Was priced for a beat already.
Yeah but if I bought at $6.90 and then took a $.60 discount on that $6.90 for a $7.50 call for Friday, I'd be sitting pretty either way. I'm just not smart enough to do such things.
I bought at $7.15 today. Granted I was just adding shares but still hoping for something out of those. Also bought 100 POWWP for the hell of it, let's see if they announce more dividends. Conf call at 5ET.
VSTO been having quite a run lately too.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
POWW is getting run down because of all the call interest. 21k ATM calls vs 1K puts. POWWP sitting flat: POWWP doesn't have options. WSB YOLOing everything via options is messy.
Just bought another 1K shares at $6.60.
Glad I held onto LCID though.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
