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Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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malchior
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by malchior »

pr0ner wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 3:00 pmIt's just wild that some House GOPers were ready to paint their Republican colleagues as traitors for voting for something that already had decent Republican support in Congress.
I think it comes down that in the House an individual representative is exposed to way more electoral and peer pressure than a Senator. The caucus is much bigger, the chances of a primary bid are higher, they are constantly forced to fund raise for that next election, etc. The pressure to conform is much higher.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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It really seems like Manchin is just a coward. Have some courage. If you are against something just say it. Instead he hides behind this bipartisanship stance like it is a real option.

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Pyperkub »

malchior wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:21 am It really seems like Manchin is just a coward. Have some courage. If you are against something just say it. Instead he hides behind this bipartisanship stance like it is a real option.

He takes donations from, and listens to, just about all the industries which support the GOP. Not his constituents, mind you, just his donors.

On the other hand, he's a Dem from WVa (a significant rarity). He does tilt more radical as the GOP shifts more radical tho. I have bigger issues with Sinema.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Post by Pyperkub »

Back to the topic at hand tho. The Dems are wasting reconciliation this year, and if they burn it on BBB, then, without Voting Rights reforms, even if they pass BBB, it will be gutted after 2022 (2024 at the latest).
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by malchior »

On one hand glad if they are going to pivot that it is to voting rights but this is insane politics. Everything we believed about the bad faith on the part of Manchin and Sinema is pretty much validated. And I'm going to be surprised if they pass anything at all much less anything that'll be effective to protect us.

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Aggressively, eh? :coffee:
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by malchior »

Zaxxon wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 12:56 pm Aggressively, eh? :coffee:
Future headline: Senate expected to shelve Voting Rights Act to work on...
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by El Guapo »

Yup. I mean, if I had to choose between the Senate passing democracy protections and passing some version of BBB, I would 1,000% take democracy protection. But I wish I had more faith that they're going to do that (and more faith that Manchin / Sinema would go along with it and agree to any filibuster reforms necessary to do so).
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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More detail. Manchin apparently moved the goalposts again. Manchin shifted into yet another position and wanted to kill the child tax credit by some reports. Or more accurately by some accounts he wanted to decouple it for some reason.

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Octavious »

I mean at this point I think it's pretty clear nothing is ever getting done. It's likely our last shot at anything good in well possibly forever. So no big deal.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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I wish they would stop calling Sinemanchin "moderate."
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Kraken wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 3:20 pm I wish they would stop calling Sinemanchin "moderate."
Corrupt is a lot more descriptive.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by malchior »

Surprise. Sinema indicating she won't sign on for rule change for voting rights. What is it called when you say you support something but won't help get it done and know it won't get done unless you help?
Kyrsten Sinema supports the elections reform bill that Democrats are considering a year-end push to pass. She doesn't support a shortcut around the filibuster to get it done.

The Arizona moderate is making clear that she intends to keep protecting the Senate’s 60-vote requirement on most legislation and she isn’t ready to entertain changing rules to pass sweeping elections or voting legislation with a simple majority. Her Democratic colleagues have been discussing those revisions as they weigh dropping their focus on President Joe Biden’s $1.7 trillion climate and social spending bill and pivoting to voting rights, though it’s not clear that avenue will be any more successful.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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It's one thing to simply be a corrupt shitweasel. At least then, people know why you're being a shitweasel.

Her shtick of being a chaos goblin simply for the lulz has become so tiresome.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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malchior wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 7:55 am Surprise. Sinema indicating she won't sign on for rule change for voting rights. What is it called when you say you support something but won't help get it done and know it won't get done unless you help?
Kyrsten Sinema supports the elections reform bill that Democrats are considering a year-end push to pass. She doesn't support a shortcut around the filibuster to get it done.

The Arizona moderate is making clear that she intends to keep protecting the Senate’s 60-vote requirement on most legislation and she isn’t ready to entertain changing rules to pass sweeping elections or voting legislation with a simple majority. Her Democratic colleagues have been discussing those revisions as they weigh dropping their focus on President Joe Biden’s $1.7 trillion climate and social spending bill and pivoting to voting rights, though it’s not clear that avenue will be any more successful.
There's that "M" word again. WTF? Thanks, Kraken! :P Now every time I see that word attached to either one of these shitbirds, it's going to launch my "curmudgeon mode".
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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malchior wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 7:55 am Surprise. Sinema indicating she won't sign on for rule change for voting rights. What is it called when you say you support something but won't help get it done and know it won't get done unless you help?
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

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Smoove_B wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:16 pm
Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas) all-but-freezing the Senate's confirmation process.
So yeah, not really the Democrats self-destructing or Biden "bombing" as much as it's the GOP obstructing and apparently doing whatever it is they're doing to keep Manchin happy.
Politico
The Senate clinched an agreement early Saturday morning to confirm around three dozen nominees for ambassadorships and senior State Department positions, ending a stalemate between Sen. Ted Cruz and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.

The agreement between Cruz (R-Texas) and Schumer also sets up a vote in January on Nord Stream 2, the Russia-to-Germany natural gas pipeline. Cruz had been slow-walking dozens of foreign policy nominees over the Biden administration’s decision to waive sanctions on the pipeline, forcing Schumer to use valuable floor time on the nominees or cut a deal with Cruz.

According to two people familiar with the agreement, Cruz agreed to lift his holds on 32 nominees in exchange for the Senate voting in early January on his legislation to sanction the pipeline, which the U.S. opposes but decided not to sanction in order to preserve relations with Germany.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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And there it is.

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Octavious »

Manchin officially a no. So yes we can self destruct. We're screwed in the midterms and 2024. Woo
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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I can't help but assume that Manchin was always a no now. This should be the end of Manchin as an honest broker narrative. I re-read this thread and the best theory for Manchin's behavior came from El Guapo. The idea that Manchin traded for a BIF vote with McConnell as long as Manchin time wasted on BBB to protect the wealthy just makes a lot of sense. It's unprovable unless someone talks but I don't understand how this makes sense in a traditional read of the way politics works. It gets even weirder because they shelved the bill and switched to voting rights. They essentially accepted Manchin's suggestion to delay it more. His response? He switches to a hard no after the Senate session is over? He has done everyone dirty and he stabbed Biden in the back.
Last edited by malchior on Sun Dec 19, 2021 11:40 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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gasp.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Bernie is calling for a vote on it this morning. He wants to put Machin on the spot. Luckily Machin's best shield is the filibuster. He'll never have to vote on the bill. Therein lies the "beauty" of the Senate. It's protect all from accountability.

Edit: One more note. It strikes me as very important to take in the context that Manchin announced this on Fox News. Remember earlier on in this affair that he had a leak that said he was considering changing parties. One that he strongly denied. Now watch the clip below where he announces his hard no. He is barely containing himself here as he speaks here. He has been waiting for this moment, his subsequent announcement on the same program that he wouldn't support voting rights rule changes, and the weight of all this is I can't help but think this is part of his plan to switch parties (or probably more likely declaring he is an Indepedent).

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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The Man(chin) who sold the world.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Smoove_B »

Official statement from The White House:
Senator Manchin’s comments this morning on FOX are at odds with his discussions this week with the President, with White House staff, and with his own public utterances. Weeks ago, Senator Manchin committed to the President, at his home in Wilmington, to support the Build Back Better framework that the President then subsequently announced. Senator Manchin pledged repeatedly to negotiate on finalizing that framework “in good faith.”

On Tuesday of this week, Senator Manchin came to the White House and submitted—to the President, in person, directly—a written outline for a Build Back Better bill that was the same size and scope as the President’s framework, and covered many of the same priorities. While that framework was missing key priorities, we believed it could lead to a compromise acceptable to all. Senator Manchin promised to continue conversations in the days ahead, and to work with us to reach that common ground. If his comments on FOX and written statement indicate an end to that effort, they represent a sudden and inexplicable reversal in his position, and a breach of his commitments to the President and the Senator’s colleagues in the House and Senate.
It continues with additional commentary.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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It's almost as though even the White House has been naive enough to believe Manchin was negotiating in good faith.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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That WH reaction is stronger than I expected. He must have caught everyone flat-footed with this. I read that WH statement as come back in from the cold or you're burning bridges. It only underscores my belief that will go independent at least. Edit: Now that the mask is off and we know Manchin is as corrupt and dishonest as we thought this gives us some new lines of analysis. If he is simply maximizing power/ego then he waits out the mid-term. If the Senate flips he goes R to remain relevant. Otherwise he almost certainly goes I since he is probably dead to the Democrats when they don't need him. If you read between the lines they pretty much accuse him of lying to Biden's face. They also claim he lied to the leadership in both the Senate and House so they are saying everyone knows your word isn't worth jack squat. This is scorched earth stuff even if it was "obvious". He is essentially kicking the stool out on Biden's entire agenda right before mid-term season.

Edit: If the Democrats were Republicans they'd be readying a campaign to carpet bomb WV with messaging about how Manchin is killing their child care credit. But they won't and it's too late. The time to play hardball with Manchin was in the summer.

Edit 2: There are a *lot* of calls for Schumer to burn Manchin at the stake and remove his committee assignments. They still need to get judges and other positions approved. They need him, Manchin has all the leverage, but they can and should make it hurt somewhat.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Saw this coming a mile away. The progressives kept getting tarred and feathered for their position on the infrastructure bill. Manchin was the one who made them cleave BIF from BBB. Manchin was the one who kept moving the goalposts. All along the Jayapals and AOCs of the House caucus said don't trust him.

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Yeah, love or hate AOC, she's been accurate and loud that this was gonna happen for a long time now.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Her further comments are an ominous warning. One thing I predicted long ago was Biden was going to have a challenge keeping the caucus together. The leadership rewarded bad faith in the face of repeated warnings. And this is where I have a feeling I won't like what AOC is cooking up. She knows there almost no way to fix this breach before the mid-terms. It is an excuse to begin raising hell which will be damaging.



Meanwhile in delusion land. If our history has shown us anything, voters always turn out in huge numbers after getting little of what they were promised. Especially for a mid-term!

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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'Damaging' is relative at this point, though. The Ds are going to (rightfully) get slaughtered in '22 now, climate change legislation of any relative import is now DOA for the entirety of the remaining time during which meaningful mitigation is possible, etc etc.

Shit is going to blow up regardless, so if some additional shit pushes out these hosers, I can't say I'm against it.

To put it another way, it's not like the choice is blow shit up or try again next time. Next time under the status quo doesn't exist.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Yeah I get that take. It's certainly looking pretty grim. This is really, really rough. In the end, I suspect Biden's rose-colored glasses here allowed Manchin to win a huge victory for the oligarchs (and he numbers amongst a lesser member of that class) both in their capacity to continue to harm the climate but also horde wealth.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Senator promises are like deaths in the Marvel universe.

That said, I'm taking delivery of an BEV on 12/27/2021, so that indicates my level of confidence regarding a $7k tax credit on certain EVs for certain families in 2022.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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The Meal wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 2:49 pm Senator promises are like deaths in the Marvel universe.

That said, I'm taking delivery of an BEV on 12/27/2021, so that indicates my level of confidence regarding a $7k tax credit on certain EVs for certain families in 2022.
I've been thinking about this since the pivot to voting rights. So many people were having freak outs about taking delivery in December that Tesla started playing hardball with holds. All to wait longer for a car which almost certainly will not get a tax credit now no matter when they take delivery.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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What happened to Amash? Every once in awhile he tweets something like this where you wonder if he is tweeting from a parallel universe. I heard Bill Kristol making similar noise about how they should break up the bill and vote on the components like he doesn't understand why it is one big bill.

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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Amash has always in consistent on that strategy for law making and bill passage.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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malchior wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 1:32 pm He must have caught everyone flat-footed with this. I read that WH statement as come back in from the cold or you're burning bridges. It only underscores my belief that will go independent at least. Edit: Now that the mask is off and we know Manchin is as corrupt and dishonest as we thought this gives us some new lines of analysis. If he is simply maximizing power/ego then he waits out the mid-term. If the Senate flips he goes R to remain relevant. Otherwise he almost certainly goes I since he is probably dead to the Democrats when they don't need him. If you read between the lines they pretty much accuse him of lying to Biden's face. They also claim he lied to the leadership in both the Senate and House so they are saying everyone knows your word isn't worth jack squat. This is scorched earth stuff even if it was "obvious". He is essentially kicking the stool out on Biden's entire agenda right before mid-term season.
If he caught everyone in the Biden admin flat-footed, then they don't deserve to be there. Are they 8?! These idiots are as naive as the R's are Machievellian.

I'm with AOC at this point...Biden and Co. have continually blown opportunities to at least keep The Crazy at bay for maybe a couple more elections, and seemed to act like they could bipartisan through as before, completely unaware that they were trying to deal with as you said, 'non-honest actors' or whatnot (that's putting it EXTREMELY mildly IMO). She was right, they were wrong, and Pelosi at least seemed to harp on how wrong-headed she was. I support most of anything she thinks is the right thing to do at this point.

OTOH, not sure wailing on the Captain as the Titanic sinks does anyone any good, but at least a "HEY DUMBASS - LOOK WHAT YOU DID!!!" is justified.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

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Carpet_pissr wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 7:07 pm
malchior wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 1:32 pm He must have caught everyone flat-footed with this. I read that WH statement as come back in from the cold or you're burning bridges. It only underscores my belief that will go independent at least. Edit: Now that the mask is off and we know Manchin is as corrupt and dishonest as we thought this gives us some new lines of analysis. If he is simply maximizing power/ego then he waits out the mid-term. If the Senate flips he goes R to remain relevant. Otherwise he almost certainly goes I since he is probably dead to the Democrats when they don't need him. If you read between the lines they pretty much accuse him of lying to Biden's face. They also claim he lied to the leadership in both the Senate and House so they are saying everyone knows your word isn't worth jack squat. This is scorched earth stuff even if it was "obvious". He is essentially kicking the stool out on Biden's entire agenda right before mid-term season.
If he caught everyone in the Biden admin flat-footed, then they don't deserve to be there. Are they 8?! These idiots are as naive as the R's are Machievellian.

I'm with AOC at this point...Biden and Co. have continually blown opportunities to at least keep The Crazy at bay for maybe a couple more elections, and seemed to act like they could bipartisan through as before, completely unaware that they were trying to deal with as you said, 'non-honest actors' or whatnot (that's putting it EXTREMELY mildly IMO). She was right, they were wrong, and Pelosi at least seemed to harp on how wrong-headed she was. I support most of anything she thinks is the right thing to do at this point.

OTOH, not sure wailing on the Captain as the Titanic sinks does anyone any good, but at least a "HEY DUMBASS - LOOK WHAT YOU DID!!!" is justified.


malchior wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 2:04 pm Her further comments are an ominous warning. One thing I predicted long ago was Biden was going to have a challenge keeping the caucus together. The leadership rewarded bad faith in the face of repeated warnings. And this is where I have a feeling I won't like what AOC is cooking up. She knows there almost no way to fix this breach before the mid-terms. It is an excuse to begin raising hell which will be damaging.



Meanwhile in delusion land. If our history has shown us anything, voters always turn out in huge numbers after getting little of what they were promised. Especially for a mid-term!

I think this was all arranged at the highest levels. I made the argument that the Democrats went full Vichy a while ago. Anyone with room temperature IQ should have spotted this shit a mile away. Biden is either Gorbachev or Buchannan or some sort of combination of the two. Even Chamberlain was smarter then this boob.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Drazzil »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 7:07 pm
malchior wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 1:32 pm He must have caught everyone flat-footed with this. I read that WH statement as come back in from the cold or you're burning bridges. It only underscores my belief that will go independent at least. Edit: Now that the mask is off and we know Manchin is as corrupt and dishonest as we thought this gives us some new lines of analysis. If he is simply maximizing power/ego then he waits out the mid-term. If the Senate flips he goes R to remain relevant. Otherwise he almost certainly goes I since he is probably dead to the Democrats when they don't need him. If you read between the lines they pretty much accuse him of lying to Biden's face. They also claim he lied to the leadership in both the Senate and House so they are saying everyone knows your word isn't worth jack squat. This is scorched earth stuff even if it was "obvious". He is essentially kicking the stool out on Biden's entire agenda right before mid-term season.
If he caught everyone in the Biden admin flat-footed, then they don't deserve to be there. Are they 8?! These idiots are as naive as the R's are Machievellian.

I'm with AOC at this point...Biden and Co. have continually blown opportunities to at least keep The Crazy at bay for maybe a couple more elections, and seemed to act like they could bipartisan through as before, completely unaware that they were trying to deal with as you said, 'non-honest actors' or whatnot (that's putting it EXTREMELY mildly IMO). She was right, they were wrong, and Pelosi at least seemed to harp on how wrong-headed she was. I support most of anything she thinks is the right thing to do at this point.

OTOH, not sure wailing on the Captain as the Titanic sinks does anyone any good, but at least a "HEY DUMBASS - LOOK WHAT YOU DID!!!" is justified.
No sane group of people could take a look at the history of the stuff that's gone down the last twenty years ago and leave themselves open to shit like this. I hope the Dems know that fascists and nazis don't keep their promises.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Alefroth »

If Manchin flips to Independent, what happens to the Dem majority and everything that brings? Sanders is Independent, but the Dems get to claim him. Is it up to Manchin?
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Self-destruct complete!

Post by Kraken »

Manchin has considerable power over the Dems, arguably equal to Biden. As a Rep, he'd be just another non-MAGA slimeball. McConnell would reward him for flipping the Senate, but McC isn't calling the shots in his party and Manchin wouldn't have the same hold over him, if only because the Reps have no legislative agenda. If Manchin does go independent, he'll want to maintain his hold over Biden & Co., and I think he maximizes his influence by staying allied with the party.

I'm not entirely convinced that this isn't just another instance of Lucy pulling away the football.
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