Shutdown 3: the Shutdownening

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What are the odds that there's a government shutdown in a couple weeks?

Minimal / zero
1
3%
<25%
2
6%
26% - 50%
3
10%
51% - 75%
8
26%
75% - 99%
4
13%
Virtually guaranteed
13
42%
 
Total votes: 31

milo
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Re: Shutdown 3: the Shutdownening

Post by milo »

Victoria Raverna wrote: Tue Oct 03, 2023 4:08 am
milo wrote: Mon Oct 02, 2023 2:22 pm "Why is that bad?"

Because McCarthy is a Republican from a conservative district, not a Democrat.
Why is that bad for Democrats?
I don't think I understand your question. McCarthy isn't a Democrat, and his decisions don't take Democrats into account, except to oppose them. McCarthy trying to work with Democrats is bad for McCarthy, because he is a conservative Republican from a conservative district, and he doesn't want anything that Democrats want, and his constituents aren't willing to compromise with Democrats in any way.
--milo
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Carpet_pissr
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Re: Shutdown 3: the Shutdownening

Post by Carpet_pissr »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Oct 03, 2023 2:16 pm
malchior wrote: Tue Oct 03, 2023 2:09 pm
Skinypupy wrote: Tue Oct 03, 2023 12:36 pm Dems are going to let McCarthy burn, which is probably the correct decision.
I'm reading that McCarthy's interesting decision to go on national tv on Sunday and blame the near miss on Democrats as part of the deciding factor.
El Guapo wrote: Tue Oct 03, 2023 12:45 pmThe guy's definitely an ass, and I have little sympathy for him given what he's done to get here. I wish I had more confidence in what happens next, though, and also wish I had more confidence that Democrats know what they're doing.
The out for Democrats here that there is no winning this game. They just need to hopefully take the least dumb course through this mess.

As to letting McCarthy burn? He did everything to hang himself here and they should only bail them out if he gives them enough of a win to make it worth it. That's probably not going to happen but guess all we can do is watch the chaos wheel turn.
Yeah, I know. And like I said even if Democrats were interested in a deal, McCarthy's burned his credibility and his relationships so badly by this point that it's not easy to imagine a deal that's both good enough and where Democrats would have faith in its execution.

We'll just hope for the best, I guess.
Or...OR...the PERFECT time to pull a fire alarm!!!
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Victoria Raverna
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Re: Shutdown 3: the Shutdownening

Post by Victoria Raverna »

milo wrote: Tue Oct 03, 2023 4:16 pm
Victoria Raverna wrote: Tue Oct 03, 2023 4:08 am
milo wrote: Mon Oct 02, 2023 2:22 pm "Why is that bad?"

Because McCarthy is a Republican from a conservative district, not a Democrat.
Why is that bad for Democrats?
I don't think I understand your question. McCarthy isn't a Democrat, and his decisions don't take Democrats into account, except to oppose them. McCarthy trying to work with Democrats is bad for McCarthy, because he is a conservative Republican from a conservative district, and he doesn't want anything that Democrats want, and his constituents aren't willing to compromise with Democrats in any way.
Why it is bad for McCarthy is bad for Democrats? Isn't that a good thing?

So Democrats should work with McCarthy since what is bad for McCarthy is good for Democrats.
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Zarathud
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Re: Shutdown 3: the Shutdownening

Post by Zarathud »

McCarthy was not trustworthy. I fully expect he hoped to use Democrat support to get Republicans to vote for a Republican budget, not a compromise budget. His positioning showed he planned to pull a fast one.
"If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." - Albert Einstein
"I don't stand by anything." - Trump
“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867
“It is the impractical things in this tumultuous hell-scape of a world that matter most. A book, a name, chicken soup. They help us remember that, even in our darkest hour, life is still to be savored.” - Poe, Altered Carbon
milo
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Re: Shutdown 3: the Shutdownening

Post by milo »

Victoria Raverna wrote: Tue Oct 03, 2023 7:49 pm
milo wrote: Tue Oct 03, 2023 4:16 pm
Victoria Raverna wrote: Tue Oct 03, 2023 4:08 am
milo wrote: Mon Oct 02, 2023 2:22 pm "Why is that bad?"

Because McCarthy is a Republican from a conservative district, not a Democrat.
Why is that bad for Democrats?
I don't think I understand your question. McCarthy isn't a Democrat, and his decisions don't take Democrats into account, except to oppose them. McCarthy trying to work with Democrats is bad for McCarthy, because he is a conservative Republican from a conservative district, and he doesn't want anything that Democrats want, and his constituents aren't willing to compromise with Democrats in any way.
Why it is bad for McCarthy is bad for Democrats? Isn't that a good thing?

So Democrats should work with McCarthy since what is bad for McCarthy is good for Democrats.
WAT. McCarthy literally said that he would not work with the Democrats even if they voted to keep him in the Speaker's chair. There was no compromise to be had there. So this whole line of speculation is pointless.
--milo
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Kraken
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Re: Shutdown 3: the Shutdownening

Post by Kraken »

My dad taught me that "a man is as good as his word." McCarthy is not a good man.

I have no idea how the upcoming circus will play out, but bearing in mind that the speaker is second in the line of succession, let's hope the end result isn't too awful. If they were to appoint trump, for example, Biden and Harris would be at high risk of defenestration.
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waitingtoconnect
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Re: Shutdown 3: the Shutdownening

Post by waitingtoconnect »

Trump getting back into power via the speakers chair has long been a QAnon fantasy hasn’t it?
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El Guapo
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Re: Shutdown 3: the Shutdownening

Post by El Guapo »



Interesting thread. Basically arguing that it's not at all clear that McCarthy *intended* to avoid a shutdown. His "no you can't read this bill we're voting on it now" shenanigans may have been intended to get Democrats to vote down a clean extension so that they could then be blamed for the shutdown. Makes some sense.
Black Lives Matter.
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Pyperkub
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Re: Shutdown 3: the Shutdownening

Post by Pyperkub »

Fun song/video for the thread (h/t qt3):

Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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