Israel–United States relations and associated politics

[Victoria Raverna]

If Netanyahu wanted to recover their people as first priority, the ceasefire is the best way to do it. So I don't think that is what motivated him to invade Rafah.

[Holman]

The IDF itself knows that they can't defeat Hamas militarily. It's an ideology, and ideologies can only be defeated by offering and supporting a more appealing alternative. (It's notable that Netanyahu and the Israeli right wing long tacitly supported Hamas in order to *prevent* a more organized second-state Palestinian organization from gaining traction.)

Netanyahu is going into Rafah just to show Israelis that he is doing something. It's domestic political theater, nothing more. And in this little drama, civilian Palestinian casualties are irrelevant to both players.

We should cut off Netanyahu and provide only defense armaments to Israel (Iron Dome, jamming, detection, etc). I've been (with caveats) an Israel Hawk for decades, but they've fully lost me now. I'm not the only one.

[Victoria Raverna]

Sanders is correct.

[gbasden]

Sanders is correct.

Bernie very clearly expresses my feelings around all of this, for sure.

[Unagi]

Same

[Victoria Raverna]

It is a long 40 minutes video so probably only watch if you're interested and have time for it:



It is interesting to see this interview and compare to Piers Morgan's early interview about the conflict where he was clearly pro Israel and let pro Israel spokesman to spread Israel's message. Now seem like he is upset about Israel and kept interrupting and questioning the spokesman.

It was a mistake for the spokesman to agree to this interview. It doesn't help Israel.

[Victoria Raverna]

Wow, is this real?

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2 ... l-00156232

A dozen Republican senators have warned the International Criminal Court against issuing arrest warrants for Israeli officials over the nation’s conduct during the war in Gaza.

In a letter led by Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), the senators warn ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan, citing reports that the court may be considering issuing international arrest warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli officials.

Such actions are “illegitimate and lack legal basis,” the lawmakers wrote, warning they would result in severe sanctions against Khan and the ICC.

“Target Israel and we will target you. If you move forward with the measures indicated in the report, we will move to end all American support for the ICC, sanction your employees and associates, and bar you and your families from the United States,” the senators wrote in the letter sent April 24.

“You have been warned,” the letter concluded.

Other signers include Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and Sens. Marsha Blackburn, Katie Britt, Kevin Cramer, Ted Budd, Ted Cruz, Bill Hagerty, Pete Ricketts, Marco Rubio, Rick Scott and Tim Scott.

In the letter, they also blasted the ICC for not issuing arrest warrants for controversial leaders including Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Syrian President Bashar al Assad, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, or Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Last year, Cotton, Cruz and Rubio introduced a bill to sanction ICC officials who investigate or prosecute U.S. troops and allies who don't recognize the court’s authority, such as Israel.

Last week, conservative lawmakers, including Speaker Mike Johnson, urged the Biden administration to demand that the court refrain from targeting top Israeli officials as it probes war crime allegations during the conflict in Gaza.

It is now acceptable to threaten ICC? What if it is Russia or China that is doing that?

[hepcat]

serious question: my Google fu is weak on this. Has the ICC ever issued arrest warrants for Hamas leadership?

[Isgrimnur]

They've been investigating since 2019.

According to Bensouda in December 2019, the criteria for a full investigation had all been met, but jurisdiction had not been established. Bensouda stated, "I am satisfied that war crimes have been or are being committed in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip".

[hepcat]

But no arrest warrants issued, it would appear.

[Isgrimnur]

As of October 2023, the Palestine investigation in particular and the ICC as a whole were underfunded according to Karim Khan. Khan stated, "Palestine – like every other situation that we have – is underfunded and under-resourced and it is a challenge to state parties and the international community whether they wish to give us the tools to do the job."

[hepcat]

Well, that’s certainly convenient for Hamas then.

[Victoria Raverna]

Well, that’s certainly convenient for Hamas then.

Hamas is a terrorist organization, right? All Hamas members are considered to be criminals and terrorists then. Why you need ICC for that?

[hepcat]

Hamas is also the governing body in Gaza. It’s not just a terrorist organization. There are numerous such groups and people on the ICC arrest list currently. If what you said is the case, why was an investigation opened in the first place?

[Victoria Raverna]

Hamas is also the governing body in Gaza. It’s not just a terrorist organization. There are numerous such groups and people on the ICC arrest list currently. If what you said is the case, why was an investigation opened in the first place?

I meant why you need to wait for ICC which is pretty powerless to enforce the arrest when you have US and other countries that have declared Hamas to be a terrorist organization which means all their members are terrorists according to US and other countries that declared Hamas is a terrorist organization.

[Isgrimnur]

They have a pretty good track record of getting those indicted.

[hepcat]

Just asking questions about the ICC in light of the news you posted about a potential arrest warrant for Israeli officials. Seems relevant in light of claims by some that the ICC isn’t exactly without bias when it comes to some things.

I also love that Issie will stand in the middle of any discussion and just hand out facts. I have this vision of him now as OO’s mentat. His eyes go white for a second and then he replies “the GDP of Lithuania is approximately 8.2 billion usd per year “.

[Dogstar]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna151187 - US pausing offensive weapons shipments to concerns over Rafah

Another step in the right direction at this time.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Unagi]

I have this vision of him now as OO’s mentat. His eyes go white for a second and then he replies “the GDP of Lithuania is approximately 8.2 billion usd per year “.

chef's kiss

[Unagi]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna151187 - US pausing offensive weapons shipments to concerns over Rafah

Another step in the right direction at this time.

Yeah, this was good to hear. (well, you know...)

[El Guapo]

The IDF itself knows that they can't defeat Hamas militarily. It's an ideology, and ideologies can only be defeated by offering and supporting a more appealing alternative. (It's notable that Netanyahu and the Israeli right wing long tacitly supported Hamas in order to *prevent* a more organized second-state Palestinian organization from gaining traction.)

I don't necessarily disagree with your conclusions, but just want to say that this is not really correct. Hamas is very much an organization - it's essentially the de facto government and army of Gaza, at least for now. And that can absolutely be defeated. In the same way that Naziism was an ideology; the Allies couldn't exterminate their ideas (and there are still Nazis today), but they could destroy their ability to wield state power or field armies. So I doubt very much that the IDF would agree that they can't defeat Hamas militarily.

Is it easy? I doubt it, and I'm not sure whether any military gains that Israel might achieve in Rafah are worth the diplomatic price that Israel would likely pay. But I also wouldn't just assume that Israeli leaders know that a military victory is impossible and that this is purely about domestic politics.

I also doubt how realistic it is for Israel to win over Gazans with a "more appealing alternative" that Gazans would both be interested in and would be free to support even if they did.

[Blackhawk]

They can defeat Hamas militarily, but they're just going to end up with a new Hamas with a slightly different name. Overcoming the second factor will would require changes in policy, behavior, and would require generations.

...or they can just wipe Gaza off the map, in which case they'll end up with even more of the same, but from from slightly fewer borders.

[Isgrimnur]

I have this vision of him now as OO’s mentat. His eyes go white for a second and then he replies “the GDP of Lithuania is approximately 8.2 billion usd per year “.

chef's kiss

$144.261 billion (2024 estimate)

Below Mississippi, above New Mexico.

[hepcat]

[gilraen]

You just keep picking on Lithuania, huh?

[El Guapo]

They can defeat Hamas militarily, but they're just going to end up with a new Hamas with a slightly different name. Overcoming the second factor will would require changes in policy, behavior, and would require generations.

...or they can just wipe Gaza off the map, in which case they'll end up with even more of the same, but from from slightly fewer borders.

Yup. Or put another way, defeating Hamas militarily (even an overwhelming victory) doesn't solve the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israel can only get real permanent peace through either a deal with the Palestinians (whatever that ultimately looks like) or massive crimes against humanity (ethnic cleansing - essentially expelling substantially all Palestinians from the occupied territories).

The most optimistic scenario I can think of is Hamas gets crippled militarily in the next month or so, then a new Israeli government is elected in September without the right wing extremist parties, which is then open to more realistic deals. Who knows if anything would happen in reality...but it at least becomes *possible*.

[hepcat]

You just keep picking on Lithuania, huh?

Think about it: Lithuania is like a nicer Canada. They have no natural enemies. What are they gonna do, hug me to death?

[El Guapo]

You just keep picking on Lithuania, huh?

Think about it: Lithuania is like a nicer Canada. They have no natural enemies. What are they gonna do, hug me to death?

Lithuania definitely has a natural enemy.

[hepcat]

I rest my case. Even Russia likes them. They're the Mr. Rogers of Europe. Fun fact: when France invented the Guillotine, Lithuania invented the Pillowtine. It was meant as a stern warning not to do whatever you did again.

[gilraen]

You just keep picking on Lithuania, huh?

Think about it: Lithuania is like a nicer Canada.

I don't have to think about it, I'm from there (Lithuania, not Canada)

[hepcat]

Transplanted Lithuanian or "my great, great, great, great grandfather lived there for a year" Lithuanian?

[gilraen]

Transplanted Lithuanian or "my great, great, great, great grandfather lived there for a year" Lithuanian?

When I say "from there", I do mean *from there*. Born there (when it was still USSR), moved to the US when I was in high school.

[hepcat]

Ah, so you speak Lithuanian. I've heard it's comprised of a series of whistles and raspberries.

Note: I tend to use Lithuania as my go to for a country name when making a dumb joke not because I think little of them, but because they don't have much in the way of offensive stereotypes. So it seems like anything I say wouldn't be seen as a joke about them, but just something absurd.

[gilraen]

Ah, so you speak Lithuanian. I've heard it's comprised of a series of whistles and raspberries.

You are confusing it with Polish.

[LawBeefaroni]

Wow, is this real?

...

It is now acceptable to threaten ICC? What if it is Russia or China that is doing that?

12 Senators. Making threats they can't really make good on. It's just an attempt to get more press.

[TheMix]

You just keep picking on Lithuania, huh?

Think about it: Lithuania is like a nicer Canada. They have no natural enemies. What are they gonna do, hug me to death?

I keep picturing you as Peter Falk in Tune in Tomorrow...

[hepcat]

Better than Sharon Stone in Basic Instinct, I guess.

[Smoove_B]

BREAKING: President Biden tells @ErinBurnett that if Israel invades the city of Rafah, the U.S. will stop supplying it with artillery shells, bombs for fighter jets and other offensive weapons

[Kurth]

I rest my case. Even Russia likes them. They're the Mr. Rogers of Europe. Fun fact: when France invented the Guillotine, Lithuania invented the Pillowtine. It was meant as a stern warning not to do whatever you did again.

I don't want to ruin your image of Lithuania, hepcat, but it's worth pointing out that Jews tend to see the country through slightly less historically rose-tinged glasses:

The Holocaust in Lithuania resulted in the near total eradication of Lithuanian (Litvaks) and Polish Jews[a] in Generalbezirk Litauen of the Reichskommissariat Ostland in the Nazi-controlled Lithuania. Of approximately 208,000–210,000 Jews at the time of the Nazi invasion, an estimated 190,000 to 195,000 were killed before the end of World War II, most of them between June and December 1941. More than 95% of Lithuania's Jewish population was murdered over the three-year German occupation,[1] a more complete destruction than befell any other country in the Holocaust.[2] Historians attribute this to the massive collaboration in the genocide by the non-Jewish local paramilitaries, though the reasons for this collaboration are still debated.[3] The Holocaust resulted in the largest loss of life in so short a period of time in the history of Lithuania.[4]

[hepcat]

Son of a...now I have to find ANOTHER country to use?

Where do we stand on Latveria?