Simple WW Return of the Hunter(ish)-Day 3?

miltonite · Post by **miltonite** » Tue Jun 22, 2010 6:44 pm

I have read them all but being new at this I might not pick up on little details all of you see.

Is it possible you are trying to get me to change my vote because you are trying to protect your wolf partner? Or is it you know who the wolf is and you think it might not be Scoop and you just want to win a little early? Either way I am going to go ahead and keep my vote as is until I pick up on some hint at who the WWs are.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Tue Jun 22, 2010 7:39 pm

Semaj wrote:
miltonite wrote:I know there is a game going on but the kids that are not with their parents during the day and are with me instead are not aware. If they all stay home then I get to sit in front of my computer all day like all of you. Because that is not a possibility I get off at 4 come home read 5 pages of mindless banter then reply.

Since Scoop

was nice enough to accept my proposition just straight up say he was a WW I will have to throw my vote that way. With nothing else to go on I am going to go with his word on that.
You dont believe in actually reading posts either, do you?

+1

Random stabbing is no substitute for careful reading of the thread followed by random stabbing.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Tue Jun 22, 2010 7:40 pm

miltonite wrote:Is it possible you are trying to get me to change my vote because you are trying to protect your wolf partner?

Perhaps we're pausing because there's absolutely no reason at all-- none-- to think that Scoop is a werewolf.

Or is it you know who the wolf is and you think it might not be Scoop and you just want to win a little early?

Uhm... yeah?

Either way I am going to go ahead and keep my vote as is until I pick up on some hint at who the WWs are.

RIF

Kenetickid · Post by **Kenetickid** » Tue Jun 22, 2010 7:55 pm

Kenetickid · Post by **Kenetickid** » Tue Jun 22, 2010 7:57 pm

Well and we all know that I love a good random stabbing weather or not it actually accomplishes anything real so................

Scoop

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Tue Jun 22, 2010 8:13 pm

withdraw Scoop

Confused.

Semaj · Post by **Semaj** » Tue Jun 22, 2010 8:18 pm

good move theo... for now...

I may need to kill non-reading ho-bags

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Tue Jun 22, 2010 9:31 pm

Votes:

1. Semaj -
2. Isgrimnur -
3. Mr Bubbles - Scoop
4. Scoop - Theohall
5. Kenetickid - Scoop
6. Theohall -
7. Arcanis - Grundbegriff
8. Miltonite - Scoop
9. Lagom Lite -
10. Grundbegriff - Arcanis

Totals:
Scoop - 3
Theohall - 1
Arcanis - 1
Grundbegriff - 1
There are 10 of you. Majority is 6.
Voting will close when a player reaches the 6th vote and that player will be lynched.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Jun 22, 2010 9:36 pm

Put me in camp Grundbegriff.

Arcanis

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Tue Jun 22, 2010 9:52 pm

So Grundbegriff initially wants to kill Arcanis when dawn has yet to have arisen. He then plays this sick game with Scoop and the rest of us. That sick game, were Grundbegriff truly the Seer, would have made sense if Scoop were a wolf given his initial reactions to Grundbegriff's test of the rest of us. Now, Grundbegriff claims Arcanis is the wolf.

I do not know if Grundbegriff should be believed. If he is not a wolf, odds are the wolves kill him tonight anyway, although I'd be tempted to let him live given the confusion he just created, which helps the wolves continue to hide. Unless Arcanis is actually a wolf.

What is bugging me is Scoop's reaction to Grund which fits evil Scoop.

This leaves three potential Day One targets if we play follow the leader (not necessarily in the order given):
1) Grundbegriff for messing with us
2) Arcanis (trusting Grund as if he were a Seer, which he might not be)
3) Scoop (whose over-reaction bothers me still)

Then consider the rest of the group:
Kenetickid bothers me again, because he might as well be tru1cy with the amount of information he shares when choosing to post. Great place to hide.
Semaj - no flags for now.
Isgrimnur - looks like the same old villager Isgrimnur
Mr Bubbles - does he know something, or doesn't he? Needs to be watched.
Theohall - just a villager enjoying a brew.
Miltonite - new guy. No idea.
Lagom Lite - not super active for now, which indicates villager to me.

I have no idea where to go, but don't trust Grund's claim. Bolds are those I would consider next. Of course, it is probably all completely wrong as usual.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Jun 22, 2010 10:00 pm

Scoop/Arcanis are not mutually exclusive for baddies if Grund is telling the truth.

If Grund is lying, we can certainly fix his little red wagon tomorrow. With his reveal/fake, he's exposing himself to be voted off today, killed off tonight, or voted off tomorrow. I don't recall Grund tending to make such a dramatic stand when evil.

miltonite · Post by **miltonite** » Tue Jun 22, 2010 10:53 pm

Remember, I am the new guy but the way I see it is

Semaj wrote:good move theo... for now...

Good move for helping the WWs win by removing your vote for one of the two.

Semaj wrote:I may need to kill non-reading ho-bags

Semaj is going to try to get Scoop to agree to kill me when this vote goes through because I apparently don't read posts as well as he does.

Good job outing yourself over a "non-reading ho-bag".

But please Semaj teach me how to vote, I am not sure how I am to vote without your expert guidance. Seems like in all your planning on who to kill next you forgot to put up who you want in the gallows today.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Tue Jun 22, 2010 11:01 pm

But you already know how to vote.. Scoop[/accuse

Just not yet from me.

Kenetickid · Post by **Kenetickid** » Tue Jun 22, 2010 11:05 pm

theohall wrote:So Grundbegriff initially wants to kill Arcanis when dawn has yet to have arisen. He then plays this sick game with Scoop and the rest of us. That sick game, were Grundbegriff truly the Seer, would have made sense if Scoop were a wolf given his initial reactions to Grundbegriff's test of the rest of us. Now, Grundbegriff claims Arcanis is the wolf.

I do not know if Grundbegriff should be believed. If he is not a wolf, odds are the wolves kill him tonight anyway, although I'd be tempted to let him live given the confusion he just created, which helps the wolves continue to hide. Unless Arcanis is actually a wolf.

What is bugging me is Scoop's reaction to Grund which fits evil Scoop.

This leaves three potential Day One targets if we play follow the leader (not necessarily in the order given):
1) Grundbegriff for messing with us
2) Arcanis (trusting Grund as if he were a Seer, which he might not be)
3) Scoop (whose over-reaction bothers me still)

Then consider the rest of the group:
Kenetickid bothers me again, because he might as well be tru1cy with the amount of information he shares when choosing to post. Great place to hide.
Semaj - no flags for now.
Isgrimnur - looks like the same old villager Isgrimnur
Mr Bubbles - does he know something, or doesn't he? Needs to be watched.
Theohall - just a villager enjoying a brew.
Miltonite - new guy. No idea.
Lagom Lite - not super active for now, which indicates villager to me.

I have no idea where to go, but don't trust Grund's claim. Bolds are those I would consider next. Of course, it is probably all completely wrong as usual.

I have no history with Grund myself. The couple games I have played were either run by grund, or he got killed REALLY early so no real play time for me to develop a history of play style. "the perfect storm" that would have to have happened if grund truly is the "seer" is semi plausible considering how early Grund has died. The "hunter" may have protected grund to keep the "wolves" from taking out a statis junky in the early game so that confusion reigns and leaves them free to weed out the people they think of as threats. Grund has claimed "seer" and pointed the finger at Arcanis. Either grund IS the seer and was the target of the "perfect storm" to keep him alive and Arcanis truly is a wolf, OR grund is a wolf and he is pointing the finger at last nights target trying to get the villagers to do the wolves failed job for them, OR grund is the hunter randomly pointing at what he thinks is the most likely target.

Arcanis (from what I have seen) covers his tracks most of the time, but when he makes a mistake it's fairly obvious and I haven't seen one of those....yet.

Scoop to me reads as one of those players that gets in a specific situation and flies completely off into his own little world of self-righteousness. He seems to be doing that again in his persistence that he has someone pinned down as a wolf (grund). The last time he did this he was actually a good guy and had a decent right to be excited. I think he is playing off the win from last game to try and garner some trust that he has done it again.

Kenetickid well this guy is a pain to read cause he rarely posts which always tends to look evil. When he does post is is usually some random crap that doesnt even make sense half the time...........Wait that's me..................

Semaj hasn't raised any hairs on my neck yet, but time will tell........

Isgrimnur does seem to be a placated this game compared to the last one.

Mr.Bubbles I have played 2 games with him now and I have guessed wrong both times on his alignment so I am really hesistent about my assumptions.

Theohall................................where do I start. When argues with me atleast once a page we are usually on the same side and complely off on are perceptions of each other. When Theo is quie and non argumentative he is probably a baddie looking to hide through lack of comments.

Miltonite new guy with minimal posting that i have seen. no read atm.

Lagom Lite no real experience playing with him due to first night kills and such. Doesn't seem like a baddie atm altho minimal activity is a bit tilting for me to words the not so nice side.

I would hate to be called the guy that never really posts anything credable or near a threat matrix so theres my half a cent with of thinking.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Tue Jun 22, 2010 11:27 pm

withdrawal theohall

Nice work, Grund. Team Villager really kicked ass last night. So, Grund has named Arcanis as a wolf. Its simple everyone. We kill Arcanis today. If he is not a wolf, we kill Grund since he would have to be a wolf.

Hey, Grund, I certainly enjoyed playing your huckleberry. We should do that again sometime.

As for the rest of you, I had information you didn't have that made it easy to see through Grund's plan and that I was a villager but I'm surprised how many of you actually jumped on my "bandwagon".

My two front runners for Wolf #2 are Bubbles and Theohall.

Since we can't count on Grund be around tomorrow we need to take today's information and make the most use of it as possible. Luckily, we are guaranteed to still have the hunter the following night so there is still a chance he will get another protection.

And with that out of the way, Arcanis

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Tue Jun 22, 2010 11:36 pm

theohall wrote:3) Scoop (whose over-reaction bothers me still)

It's immensely entertaining to watch you worry about someone else's overreaction.

Isgrimnur wrote:Scoop/Arcanis are not mutually exclusive for baddies if Grund is telling the truth.

That doesn't necessarily follow. It all depends.

I don't recall Grund tending to make such a dramatic stand when evil.

I've done it repeatedly, whether good or evil, if it suited my purposes.

Kenetickid wrote:The "hunter" may have protected grund to keep the "wolves" from taking out a status junky in the early game so that confusion reigns and leaves them free to weed out the people they think of as threats.

I like the phrase "status junky" here.

Grund has claimed "seer" and pointed the finger at Arcanis. Either grund IS the seer and was the target of the "perfect storm" to keep him alive and Arcanis truly is a wolf, OR grund is a wolf and he is pointing the finger at last nights target trying to get the villagers to do the wolves failed job for them, OR grund is the hunter randomly pointing at what he thinks is the most likely target.

I'm glad to see you thinking creatively. There are other logical possibilities, too.

Lagom Lite no real experience playing with him due to first night kills and such. Doesn't seem like a baddie atm altho minimal activity is a bit tilting for me to words the not so nice side.

I do not have any information about Lagom Lite, of course, but he would be extremely high on my list of people to scan for wolfitude. Clear?

I would hate to be called the guy that never really posts anything credable or near a threat matrix so theres my half a cent with of thinking.

You've already done more than most. Kudos.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 12:09 am

Grundbegriff wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:Scoop/Arcanis are not mutually exclusive for baddies if Grund is telling the truth.
That doesn't necessarily follow. It all depends.

I'm not ruling out anything at this point. Assuming you are telling the truth for your identification (and the protection stuff is kinda moot) and Arcanis's role has no bearing on Scoop's role. Scoop may or may not be a baddie in complete independence of whatever the Arcanis role is.

Heck, if you're spoofing, Scoop could be your partner and you're attempting to deflect suspicion. I don't consider this a high probability play, as evidenced by my supporting vote, but I still think Scoop was causing more havoc than was needed.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 12:12 am

I'm capable of much more havoc than that.

miltonite · Post by **miltonite** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 12:21 am

Grundbegriff wrote: I do not have any information about Lagom Lite, of course, but he would be extremely high on my list of people to scan for wolfitude. Clear?

The thing that gets me is that this is not clear at all. How is there any possible way to be certain you are the seer? I would assume that calling yourself out as the seer is a "pleasalle kill me now WW" c. Especially if you got protected last night. Therefore you are already out of the game. But then again if you are a WW then it would make perfect sense to make that claim because you can surely get protection from the evil side since you are on it, then calling yourself as the seer is protecting you from the gallows. I am going to keep my vote for Scoop for the time and recall some one saying

Scoop20906 wrote:Ok, I will out myself for the sake of everyone. I am the wolf. My partner is Grund.

How is this very shocking to believe? Other people are throwing out their "professions" why can't scoop be believed? Grund's word was taken for truth with nothing but his word. Well I would rather believe that Scoop's statement was true and Grund is the one pretending to have a role that he doesn't. Is it at all possible that the real seer doesn't want to be wolf chow so he is keeping his mouth shut?

Maybe Grund has called himself the seer to draw the seer out soon so he can be done with that nuisance and get on with the winning of this game.

Please correct me if I am off base with this as this is my first game and I will contrive it in my head somehow that you are the wolf and are just trying to mess with me

Mr Bubbles · Post by **Mr Bubbles** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 12:26 am

Been MIA and won't exactly add anything productive tonight. Need to read over everything and will add my piece in the morning, but I'm not horribly surprised by Grund's place. There isn't much to go on so you create something. I always wondered if someone would be a wolf in plain sight...I wonder...

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 12:43 am

miltonite wrote:Especially if you got protected last night. Therefore you are already out of the game. But then again if you are a WW then it would make perfect sense to make that claim because you can surely get protection from the evil side since you are on it, then calling yourself as the seer is protecting you from the gallows.

Of course, if I was protected last night and am ineligible for protection tonight, and yet I'm still around tomorrow, then I'll be able to say many things, but I won't be able to say that the Hunter protected me. Right?

How is this very shocking to believe? Other people are throwing out their "professions" why can't Scoop be believed?

Because he's conspicuously human.

Grund's word was taken for truth with nothing but his word.

It's good to be king.

Well I would rather believe that Scoop's statement was true and Grund is the one pretending to have a role that he doesn't. Is it at all possible that the real seer doesn't want to be wolf chow so he is keeping his mouth shut?

Believe what you will.

Maybe Grund has called himself the seer to draw the seer out soon so he can be done with that nuisance and get on with the winning of this game.

Please correct me if I am off base with this as this is my first game and I will contrive it in my head somehow that you are the wolf and are just trying to mess with me

Your first game? Welcome aboard! Glad you decided to enter the fray.

You're thinking things through, and that's half the fun. Good work so far.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 1:01 am

Kenetickid... thanks for finally sharing something.

Arcanis

If he comes up villager, we know our next target.

Semaj · Post by **Semaj** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 1:06 am

whee I get to try and dispense knowledge, which is odd since I have none... heh.

Lets see how this goes.

miltonite wrote:Remember, I am the new guy but the way I see it is

Semaj wrote:good move theo... for now...
Good move for helping the WWs win by removing your vote for one of the two.

Well, here is how I see it. Grund implied scoop was a Werewolf. He also called arcanis a wolf.. want linkies? When we started calling him out on it, Grund said in no uncertain terms, there is no proof scoop was a werewolf (Which I will rag on him about, since he claims seer and early on called scoop a wolf) Obviously for grund this is old hat, wolf or no.

miltonite wrote:
Semaj wrote:I may need to kill non-reading ho-bags
Semaj is going to try to get Scoop to agree to kill me when this vote goes through because I apparently don't read posts as well as he does.

Actually, i never said you were a wolf, heck I never said you were a non-reading hobag. Implications might have occurred, but I havent gone out of my way to really peg any one person down.

However I do have issue with something you have said. I dont hate you or wish much ill upon you short of possibly a quick death if you are a werewolf.

But Grund, with no pressure or reason to, outs himself as a seer. At the time his vote was on scoop and a bandwagon sorta started forming.

As I said, if he is a wolf, scoop comes up human, grund dies tomorrow. We just got a freebie last night we are at ten... lets do some math.

We have 10
8 Humies, 2 furballs
miss - scoop (if grund was lying) 7-2
night kill 6-2
kill grund - 6-1
night kill - 5-1
we have 2 chances to drop the last bad guy. with a tie on the final day = a wolf win)

Now say he is tellign the truth
wolf dies - 8-1
Grund dies - 7-1
o look, we now have 3 chances to drop the last bad guy.

So, worse comes to worse we use a miss to get a confirmed wolf kill.

We wont get into the seriously deep thinking about how grund could be doing this as a villager.

So safe money was on voting scoop out to prove grund.

then, Grund goes: i was using this to test who would jump on the pile, I scanned Arcanis, he is the wolf.

Which means I can hate him and claim dirty pool, but the above scenario still works.

But we now have 2 main options from which to choose:
1) lynch grund
2) lynch Arcanis.

You then, crazy as this sounds, claim you have no reads on anyone and vote for scoop.

PLEASE, o please, i beg you, and type like, william shatner, speaks... Explain to me how you came to that phenomenal insight and revelations into whom to vote for. Short of not paying attention, mind you.

miltonite wrote: Good job outing yourself over a "non-reading ho-bag".

Ididwhatnow?

You cant possibly think I outted myself... no where do I even imply or pretend. this makes as much sense as a sensory deprivation tank?

miltonite wrote: But please Semaj teach me how to vote, I am not sure how I am to vote without your expert guidance. Seems like in all your planning on who to kill next you forgot to put up who you want in the gallows today.

I haven't voted?

Twice?

Scroll up, read.

Still, if ever a person started to grow hair before my very eyes....

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 1:13 am

Semaj wrote:But we now have 2 main options from which to choose:
1) lynch grund
2) lynch Arcanis.

You then, crazy as this sounds, claim you have no reads on anyone and vote for scoop.

PLEASE, o please, i beg you, and type like, william shatner, speaks... Explain to me how you came to that phenomenal insight and revelations into whom to vote for. Short of not paying attention, mind you.

You're right that the play made no sense. But it appears to be a newbie blunder. This is miltonite's first game.

miltonite · Post by **miltonite** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 1:50 am

My main problem is that some people are taking Grund's word on faith. If he is lying we are killing a villager today
7-2(day)
Then tonight someone dies (grund if he is not a wolf)
6-2(night)
We then kill Grund who must be a wolf if he is not dead
6-1(Day)
Midnight snack
5-1(night)

Math adds up the same it Grund is lying. My vote is for Scoop because he was the first one to claim a role; which was a WW. If we are going to believe Grund we might as well believe Scoop as well. We always come back to the same argument of whether Grund was lying or not.

Grund claimed Arcanis is a wolf (quite possible) Grund also claimed Scoop was a wolf and Scoop agreed with him. I went with the 2 person consensus (at the time) and have no real compelling evidence to change my vote other than what Grund claims. He might tomorrow say he really scanned Theo and he is the real wolf and he was just kidding the other 2 times. Then we get to see who the bandwagon voters are.

It is getting rather late but I also don't recall Scoop saying that he is not in fact a wolf and is a villager.

Any other insight into my crazy mind? I will be happy to oblige but it will probably have to wait until 4 PM tomorrow. I will try to check before work but a reply might have to wait until I get off of work.

miltonite · Post by **miltonite** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 1:58 am

Semaj wrote: You then, crazy as this sounds, claim you have no reads on anyone and vote for scoop.

PLEASE, o please, i beg you, and type like, william shatner, speaks... Explain to me how you came to that phenomenal insight and revelations into whom to vote for. Short of not paying attention, mind you.

I am terribly sorry not to address this.

In case you didn't read it or just forgot my reaon for voting for Scoop is here

miltonite wrote: Since Scoop

was nice enough to accept my proposition just straight up say he was a WW I will have to throw my vote that way. With nothing else to go on I am going to go with his word on that.

I went with what Scoop said himself. As I have stated before I have just as much reson to take his word for truth as you do to take Grund's.

We obviously aren't going to sway each other it is everyone else that matters now. Lets get some voting done so we can see if Grund is lying.

Lagom Lite · Post by **Lagom Lite** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 2:43 am

Grundbegriff wrote:[I do not have any information about Lagom Lite, of course, but he would be extremely high on my list of people to scan for wolfitude. Clear?

Yeah, that's always a good idea. But are you saying you're not the Seer now? I was about to take your word for having a positive scan on Arcanis, but now I'm confused again.

Summer is my RL busy period btw, that's why I may not be as active as usual.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 6:18 am

Lagom Lite wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:[I do not have any information about Lagom Lite, of course, but he would be extremely high on my list of people to scan for wolfitude. Clear?
Yeah, that's always a good idea. But are you saying you're not the Seer now? I was about to take your word for having a positive scan on Arcanis, but now I'm confused again.

Seer only has one scan per night, right? How many nights have passed?

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 10:11 am

Grundbegriff wrote:
Lagom Lite wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:[I do not have any information about Lagom Lite, of course, but he would be extremely high on my list of people to scan for wolfitude. Clear?
Yeah, that's always a good idea. But are you saying you're not the Seer now? I was about to take your word for having a positive scan on Arcanis, but now I'm confused again.
Seer only has one scan per night, right? How many nights have passed?

That part is obvious. What LL is saying is why should you need to announce who is high on a scan list if you are the Seer? No need to ask a Seer to scan someone if you really are one. The quote he highlighted almost implies you are asking someone else to scan him.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 10:45 am

Hey, Miltonite, I think you are doing a great job. I always stick to my guns and it always gets me killed but maybe you will have more success than I did.

Ok, lets do the needful.

Grundbegriff wrote:

Grundbegriff acc Scoop20906(1)

Scoop20906 acc theohall(1)

Isgrimnur acc Mr Bubbles(1)

Isgrimnur wd Mr Bubbles(0)

Semaj acc Isgrimnur(1)

Kenetickid acc Isgrimnur(2)

Arcanis acc Kenetickid(1)

Mr Bubbles acc Scoop20906(2)

theohall acc Grundbegriff(1)

Lagom Lite acc Semaj(1)

Arcanis acc Scoop20906(3)

theohall acc Scoop20906(4)

Semaj wd Isgrimnur(1)

Semaj acc Scoop20906(5)

Grundbegriff wd Scoop20906(4)

Grundbegriff acc Arcanis(1)

Against Scoop20906(4): Mr Bubbles, Arcanis, theohall, Semaj
Against theohall(1): Scoop20906
Against Isgrimnur(1): Kenetickid
Against Kenetickid(1): Arcanis
Against Semaj(1): Lagom Lite
Against Arcanis(1): Grundbegriff

No vote for Scoop20906when at N-1
2. Isgrimnur
4. Scoop
5. Kenetickid
8. Miltonite
9. Lagom Lite

Had votes for Scoop20906 when at N-1 (there is a good chance that Here Be Wolves)
1. Semaj
3. Mr Bubbles
6. Theohall
7. Arcanis
10. Grundbegriff

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 10:48 am

theohall wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Lagom Lite wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:[I do not have any information about Lagom Lite, of course, but he would be extremely high on my list of people to scan for wolfitude. Clear?
Yeah, that's always a good idea. But are you saying you're not the Seer now? I was about to take your word for having a positive scan on Arcanis, but now I'm confused again.
Seer only has one scan per night, right? How many nights have passed?
That part is obvious. What LL is saying is why should you need to announce who is high on a scan list if you are the Seer? No need to ask a Seer to scan someone if you really are one. The quote he highlighted almost implies you are asking someone else to scan him.

Here is the problem with this line of thinking. If Gund is faking the seer, why hasn't someone counter him? No one has died.

Arcanis · Post by **Arcanis** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 10:51 am

Wow I'm not dead yet! I figured as soon as the legendary Grund claimed seer and said I was a wolf the entire village would pile on. Glad to see that some recognize Grund for the charlatan he really is.

For me, besides the obvious fact that I know i'm not a wolf, there are some holes in what Grund has said. Why as seer would he come out on day 1? Why is he so certain that he was the target of attack and defense last night? Why would he seemingly request a scan, as Theo pointed out, that, if he is telling the truth, he is the only person who could have done it?

I'm not even totally positive he is a wolf right now, as Grund tends to lynch the innocents just to see who piles on (at least from what i recall). It is possible he is a simple villager just Grundstanding as had been mentioned earlier, but i doubt it since he already pulled his bait and switch for today and a second switch would seem out of character.

Arcanis · Post by **Arcanis** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 10:53 am

Scoop20906 wrote:
theohall wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Lagom Lite wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:[I do not have any information about Lagom Lite, of course, but he would be extremely high on my list of people to scan for wolfitude. Clear?
Yeah, that's always a good idea. But are you saying you're not the Seer now? I was about to take your word for having a positive scan on Arcanis, but now I'm confused again.
Seer only has one scan per night, right? How many nights have passed?
That part is obvious. What LL is saying is why should you need to announce who is high on a scan list if you are the Seer? No need to ask a Seer to scan someone if you really are one. The quote he highlighted almost implies you are asking someone else to scan him.
Here is the problem with this line of thinking. If Gund is faking the seer, why hasn't someone counter him? No one has died.

Why would the seer come out day 1 at all? If I were seer and Grund was faking my role he would be exposed as soon as he didn't hand over a wolf. Unless I had the other wolf already i wouldn't contest him, were I the seer.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 10:53 am

Arcanis wrote:Wow I'm not dead yet! I figured as soon as the legendary Grund claimed seer and said I was a wolf the entire village would pile on. Glad to see that some recognize Grund for the charlatan he really is.

For me, besides the obvious fact that I know i'm not a wolf, there are some holes in what Grund has said. Why as seer would he come out on day 1? Why is he so certain that he was the target of attack and defense last night? Why would he seemingly request a scan, as Theo pointed out, that, if he is telling the truth, he is the only person who could have done it?

I'm not even totally positive he is a wolf right now, as Grund tends to lynch the innocents just to see who piles on (at least from what i recall). It is possible he is a simple villager just Grundstanding as had been mentioned earlier, but i doubt it since he already pulled his bait and switch for today and a second switch would seem out of character.

Arcanis, where is the counter seer?

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 10:54 am

Arcanis wrote:
Scoop20906 wrote:
theohall wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Lagom Lite wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:[I do not have any information about Lagom Lite, of course, but he would be extremely high on my list of people to scan for wolfitude. Clear?
Yeah, that's always a good idea. But are you saying you're not the Seer now? I was about to take your word for having a positive scan on Arcanis, but now I'm confused again.
Seer only has one scan per night, right? How many nights have passed?
That part is obvious. What LL is saying is why should you need to announce who is high on a scan list if you are the Seer? No need to ask a Seer to scan someone if you really are one. The quote he highlighted almost implies you are asking someone else to scan him.
Here is the problem with this line of thinking. If Gund is faking the seer, why hasn't someone counter him? No one has died.
Why would the seer come out day 1 at all? If I were seer and Grund was faking my role he would be exposed as soon as he didn't hand over a wolf. Unless I had the other wolf already i wouldn't contest him, were I the seer.

Ok, so you seem to realize that the only way for you to prove Grund is not the Seer would be for you to fall on your sword and be today's lynch vote. Is that correct?

Arcanis · Post by **Arcanis** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 11:01 am

I know either way i'm getting lynched unless a counter seer steps up. Which unless the real seer has the other wolf then i don't see him doing it, and if he does have the other wolf why the hell hasn't he stepped up to kill them both.

I know all to well in these games if there is a seer claim the first thing that will happen is lynch their target to prove them. I just hope the real seer catches the other wolf tonight and survives to reveal it to the group tomorrow.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 11:03 am

As I learned from a previous game, holding on to information too long, even inf not the best information, eventually leads to losing all of it for the group. If Grund were the night target (which I'm not sure he could know) and the seer and found one wolf, he is definitely on the buffet for night two. There's no good reason to keep quiet with positive information, as he's likely to be eaten before he gets any info on night two.

Even a seer that has a significant number of negative scans can be helpful in forming a voting block of (semi-)trusted players when the odds start getting in favor of him getting offed.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 11:04 am

Arcanis wrote:I know either way i'm getting lynched unless a counter seer steps up. Which unless the real seer has the other wolf then i don't see him doing it, and if he does have the other wolf why the hell hasn't he stepped up to kill them both.

I know all to well in these games if there is a seer claim the first thing that will happen is lynch their target to prove them. I just hope the real seer catches the other wolf tonight and survives to reveal it to the group tomorrow.

Fair enough. I just wanted to make sure you weren't arguing for anything other than the correct path. If you are a villager then you have done your duty and you will be avenged. To argue any other path will only confuse the everyone.

Arcanis · Post by **Arcanis** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 11:11 am

Isgrimnur wrote:As I learned from a previous game, holding on to information too long, even inf not the best information, eventually leads to losing all of it for the group. If Grund were the night target (which I'm not sure he could know) and the seer and found one wolf, he is definitely on the buffet for night two. There's no good reason to keep quiet with positive information, as he's likely to be eaten before he gets any info on night two.

Even a seer that has a significant number of negative scans can be helpful in forming a voting block of (semi-)trusted players when the odds start getting in favor of him getting offed.

You are correct. The problem is that the only way that it makes sense for a GrundbSeer to come out on day 1 is if he KNOWS he was the night target and thus can't be protected tonight. That is what made me suspicious at first, but with Scoop's poorly worded response and over reaction i still felt that he was a wolf (or at least the leading candidate) regardless of Grund's actions, as at that point he could have just been the normal villager Grund trying to make the wolves make a mistake. There is no way he could know he was protected last night unless the hunter took advantage of the limited rules and PMed him after the protection was successful. Since we normally use gentleman's rules for edits i figure the hunter would follow the normal practice of not PMing his fellow players, otherwise the whole game thread would turn into nothing but votes with the PMs being like the whispered conversations in the jungle on survivor.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed Jun 23, 2010 11:31 am

If there is another Seer, why should they step forward if they only have one name and it's a villager? Realize how short this game will be due to the small size of the village. Making a risky play early favors the wolves. Why not fake seer, hope the real seer steps forward, and then have a sure-fire night 2 target? Were Grundbegriff faking and I were the real Seer with only a villager, I would not step forward on Day 1. I would wait until I had at least two scans.

10 players
2 wolves

Fortunately, no one died on Night One which really helps us.

Scenarios:
1) Grundbegriff = Seer and Arcanis = wolf
We lynch Arcanis and Grundbegriff dies. 7 villagers, 1 wolf. Woohoo! We are likely the Champions!
2) Grundbegriff != Seer; Grundbegriff = Wolf and Arcanis = villager
We lynch Arcanis. Grundbewolf and friend lynch another villager. We lynch Grundbewolf on Day 2. Remaining wolf gets another Villager on Night 2. 5 villagers, 1 wolf by Day 3. Should still favor village. Boooo! Evil Grundbegriff pulls one over on us.
3) Grundbegriff != Seer; Grundbegriff = villager; Arcanis = wolf. We get lucky and Grundbegriff dies in place of the Seer on Night 2. 6 villagers, 1 wolf for Day 2. Woohoo! We are likely the Champions, part Deux!
4) Grundbegriff != Seer; Grundbegriff = villager; Arcanis = villager. Worst case scenario. Both wolves alive after Night 2. 6 villagers, 2 wolves to start Day 2. Why would this case ever happen??? Horrible situation for the village.

If Scenario 2 were to play out and we don't find the wolf:
Day 3 - 5 villagers, 1 wolf. We miss. 4 V, 1 W
Night 3 - Wolf gets a kill (Hunter misses protection)
Day 4 - 3 V, 1 W. We miss. 2 V, 1 W. Only way to win is a Hunter protection.

So - Grundbegriff could be faking Seer in order to draw out the real Seer and make us hit those last two lynches. Only way we will know, though, is to test Arcanis or Grundbegriff. It is a very risky play, but something a devious one like Grundbegriff might have already thought out.