Scoop's Werewolf Game - RevHempus71's Revenge! - Night 3

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:03 am

RMC wrote:Aw... Semaj is looking at me.. Do these pants make my butt look big?

No, your hips do.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:36 pm

withdraw RMC

Either Moliere or RevHempus71

Let's start with Moliere

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Sun Jan 18, 2015 12:46 pm

theohall wrote:Let's start with Moliere

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:50 am

Remus West wrote:
RMC wrote:Aw... Semaj is looking at me.. Do these pants make my butt look big?

No, your hips do.

Damn, I need new hips.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 12:29 pm

1. Moliere -
2. Vorret -
3. RMC -
4. triggercut -
6. RevHempus71 -
7. Chaosraven -
8. theohall -
9. Semaj -
10. Remus West -
11. Isgrimnur -

10 left. 2 bad guys. 1 Seer. 2 Priest.
Suppose Seer comes forward and 1 Priest comes forward. Assuming the Priest is not the scanned then we have 3 of 10. Lynch an unknown, they kill a "known" other than Seer. We are then at 3 of 8. Lynch an unknown, they kill a "known" other than Seer. We are at 3 of 6. Game over assuming no conversion. I'd suggest that if we do this then anyone with the role of "Villager" place themselves on the block as a lynch target due to potential Cursed nature.

Further draw backs include the Wolves posing as one of special, the Seer scanning Cursed and thus getting him into the fold. Wolves attacking a Seer they presume protected to cast doubt on the scanned players. Oddly enough, it also breaks down if the Seer does not get "clean" scans but hits one bad guy thus giving us a hit but ruining the block. Due to this I suggest the Seer hold off and rerun the numbers tomorrow.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 12:45 pm

Remus West wrote:1. Moliere -
2. Vorret -
3. RMC -
4. triggercut -
6. RevHempus71 -
7. Chaosraven -
8. theohall -
9. Semaj -
10. Remus West -
11. Isgrimnur -

10 left. 2 bad guys. 1 Seer. 2 Priest.
Suppose Seer comes forward and 1 Priest comes forward. Assuming the Priest is not the scanned then we have 3 of 10. Lynch an unknown, they kill a "known" other than Seer. We are then at 3 of 8. Lynch an unknown, they kill a "known" other than Seer. We are at 3 of 6. Game over assuming no conversion. I'd suggest that if we do this then anyone with the role of "Villager" place themselves on the block as a lynch target due to potential Cursed nature.

Further draw backs include the Wolves posing as one of special, the Seer scanning Cursed and thus getting him into the fold. Wolves attacking a Seer they presume protected to cast doubt on the scanned players. Oddly enough, it also breaks down if the Seer does not get "clean" scans but hits one bad guy thus giving us a hit but ruining the block. Due to this I suggest the Seer hold off and rerun the numbers tomorrow.

Yep, I agree that we need to not tip our hand. For some reason I read the rules wrong, and thought our 'seer' was a single shot, like our priests are. Having multiple scans means that our seer needs to stay hidden for at least a few more cycles unless something happens.

Hmmm.. Maybe we should go for one of the more silent members of the group? But I hate doing that, as it sometimes brings out one of our specials... <sigh>

But if all else fails Chaosraven

is always someone to pick on.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 12:45 pm

There's merit and risk to it, but it seems like a play worth making, given that team Village is up against it.

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:07 pm

RMC wrote:Maybe we should go for one of the more silent members of the group? But I hate doing that, as it sometimes brings out one of our specials... <sigh>

Unless there is a reason to suspect that the silent person is a wolf in the shadows I am generally opposed to lynching people just because they aren't participating enough. It only hurts the village as we're killing an innocent and reducing our good to bad ratio. I would rather hope they will come back later in the game and participate than punish them.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:59 pm

It depends who the silent is, some have a history of going awol for extended period of time which isn't the current situation.
I still like my vote on Rev, sure it's nothing major but at least it's a little something !

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 4:05 pm

triggercut wrote:There's merit and risk to it, but it seems like a play worth making, given that team Village is up against it.

Which side of the play? I outlined a play and advised against doing it today and instead looking at it tomorrow when, if things go well, we will have some room for error that does not exist today.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 4:48 pm

RMC wrote:Having multiple scans means that our seer needs to stay hidden for at least a few more cycles unless something happens.

This is the problem.... if we miss today and tomorrow, it's essentially game over, as Remus West and others have made very clear. There are not "a few more cycles" available. Sure, the Seer could hide for one more day, but that's essentially it. If he keeps on hiding after today and we miss tomorrow, we might as well not have had a Seer at all.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:06 pm

theohall wrote:
RMC wrote:Having multiple scans means that our seer needs to stay hidden for at least a few more cycles unless something happens.
This is the problem.... if we miss today and tomorrow, it's essentially game over, as Remus West and others have made very clear. There are not "a few more cycles" available. Sure, the Seer could hide for one more day, but that's essentially it. If he keeps on hiding after today and we miss tomorrow, we might as well not have had a Seer at all.

Good point, but I don't see the seer coming forward today. I think it best to wait until the next day and make the call then.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:15 pm

Day 1 Vote Count

Votes:
RMC (2) - Moliere, Isgrimnur
Moliere (2) - triggercut, theohall
Chaosraven (2) - Remus West, RMC
RevHempus71 (1) - Vorret
Vorret (1) - RevHempus71

No vote:
Chaosraven
Semaj

Majority vote is 6.

(please feel free to use this format to keep the vote count up to day. I will verify every vote and have the final word but I won't always be able to post during the day and I think vote counts are important.)

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:33 pm

Remus West wrote:
triggercut wrote:There's merit and risk to it, but it seems like a play worth making, given that team Village is up against it.
Which side of the play? I outlined a play and advised against doing it today and instead looking at it tomorrow when, if things go well, we will have some room for error that does not exist today.

Given the tightness of the moment, I guess I can see holding off a day, but I'd almost be in favor of going to it today, if the folks with roles are willing...but having said that I can understand everyone waiting a day.

RevHempus71 · Post by **RevHempus71** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:33 pm

I want my own pillow fort.

Wait bad idea, I would likely start a fire.

I know a "tree" fort, so if it goes up in smoke I will just inhale....

Have I been gone to long or something? I thought outing a Seer on day one was not a good idea.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:08 pm

RevHempus71 wrote:I want my own pillow fort.

Wait bad idea, I would likely start a fire.

I know a "tree" fort, so if it goes up in smoke I will just inhale....

Have I been gone to long or something? I thought outing a Seer on day one was not a good idea.

Depends on length of the game.
With two protectors each capable of protecting the Seer on each of the consecutive nights
And missing the next two lynches meaning the game is over...

It's worth consideration.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:14 pm

Let's see. if seer has a live scan, protect one comes forward to protect seer. Protect 2 comes out and protects scanned. 4 "Known". Seer and Scanned stay alive, one protect alive, new scan. 4 Known minus Lynched and Killed (figure the protector) makes us 4 Known of 8. Lynch and kill 3 Known of 6, Lynch and kill 2 known of 4 and lose if both wolves live.

I'm not sure the cursed matters here, as they need to keep killing known to keep the pool even rather than diminish the hiding spots, to try to bolster numbers.

3 strikes.

OTOH if everyone stays quiet, they have to try for the seer, potentially hitting a cursed or priest.

Yeah, that plan doesn't improve anything

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:19 pm

Chaosraven wrote:Let's see. if seer has a live scan, protect one comes forward to protect seer. Protect 2 comes out and protects scanned. 4 "Known". Seer and Scanned stay alive, one protect alive, new scan. 4 Known minus Lynched and Killed (figure the protector) makes us 4 Known of 8. Lynch and kill 3 Known of 6, Lynch and kill 2 known of 4 and lose if both wolves live.

I'm not sure the cursed matters here, as they need to keep killing known to keep the pool even rather than diminish the hiding spots, to try to bolster numbers.

3 strikes.

OTOH if everyone stays quiet, they have to try for the seer, potentially hitting a cursed or priest.

Yeah, that plan doesn't improve anything

You're assuming of course, that the Seer tells us who his scan is, if it's a villager (and thus putting a wolf-sized bullseye on that player.) What if he doesn't reveal his first scan until he's completed at least one more?

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 11:48 pm

I was looking at the "everybody known" pool early

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 11:49 pm

I'd imagine the Quiet priest scenario working better (2nd hidden) and the Seer holding back scans

RevHempus71 · Post by **RevHempus71** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 11:52 pm

So.

10 living:
2 wolves
2 priests
1 seer
1 cursed
4 villagers

20% chance to lynch either wolf or priest
10% seer or cursed
40% villagers

If we miss on the lynch, the numbers change significantly. 4 specials/3 villagers. That would give the toothy a 4 of 7 chance of targeting a special. The cursed role is like the burn card in Hold em Poker. No way to know what it is, but it changes everything.
So with an x factor this becomes algebra, and I hate algebra. Algebra hurts my brain, need a green break.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:41 am

withdraw RMC

I can see winding up with bedsores if we try to pull him out of that thing.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:56 am

It seems 50/50 on whether the seer should come out or not... I'm not sure what's the best course of action :\

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 7:11 pm

We seem at an impasse. Let's move a vote and see if that shakes anything loose.

Chaosraven

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:41 pm

tick tock ticktock three to go

Semaj · Post by **Semaj** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:46 am

I was going to argue the point of my post being if we had all 3 out, the wolves would sort of be hamstringed in the effort to find the cursed.

But, there are so many damn variables and possible pitfalls it hurts mah brane.

Anyways,

Remus West wrote: 10 left. 2 bad guys. 1 Seer. 2 Priest.
Suppose Seer comes forward and 1 Priest comes forward. Assuming the Priest is not the scanned then we have 3 of 10. Lynch an unknown, they kill a "known" other than Seer. We are then at 3 of 8. Lynch an unknown, they kill a "known" other than Seer. We are at 3 of 6. Game over assuming no conversion. I'd suggest that if we do this then anyone with the role of "Villager" place themselves on the block as a lynch target due to potential Cursed nature.

Your math is a wee bit off. Even at 3 of 6, since they have killed knowns, there has been no conversion. 3 of 6 with 2 wolves if we miss every time. Game isnt over by my math.

Also by asking for anyone in the role of villager place themselves on the block. Either 1 person doesnt, outting the other priest or everyone does, making the point of that moot.

Remus West

The lack of Scoop, Grund or Lassr to jab with is leaving me really bored. And a bored semaj leads to semajiculation... cough....

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:54 am

Anyone was meant as singular. One "anyone" who is a villager steps forward and offers to be lynched. Also, at the 3 of 6 I outlined they did not necessarily kill players with roles other than villager which means there could have been a conversion. Seer shares his scan and they target that player. That player is likely "villager" and thus possibly cursed.

All of which is why I suggested we wait a day so that we have some room for error.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:10 am

wd Rev

I don't have any reason to do the following but it's day one and we need to move on and he seems to be the target of choice at the moment ... don't be hatin'

CR

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 11:36 am

Let's move this along. wd RMC

Chaosraven

That should put him at n-1.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:05 pm

I still like where my vote is after that...

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:23 pm

theohall wrote:I still like where my vote is after that...

Yes, yes, we all know that only a wolf would put someone at N-1. If CR turns out to be innocent well that leaves me first on the chopping block to be lynched tomorrow. Also, only wolves mix their metaphors.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 6:40 pm

Day 1 Vote Count

Votes:
Chaosraven (5) - Remus West, RMC, triggercut, Vorret, Moliere
Moliere (1) - theohall
Vorret (1) - RevHempus71
Remus West (1) - Semaj

No vote:
Chaosraven
Isgrimnur

Majority vote is 6.

(please feel free to use this format to keep the vote count up to day. I will verify every vote and have the final word but I won't always be able to post during the day and I think vote counts are important.)

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 7:38 pm

We just need to hear if Chaos has anything else to say for himself..

RevHempus71 · Post by **RevHempus71** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:01 pm

This is where scoop comes flying in and puts the nail in the coffin.

I am keeping my vote as is. I didn't like the " for no reason" vote on me. I am not liking the " we need to move on" reasoning for Vorret's vote now.

Then there's the use of " target of choice". I think CR would be more like "chuck" than " choice".

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:07 pm

STOP

Withdraw your votes, for I am...

Well, maybe the Cursed.

Only thing I have to say is figure out why people WOULDN'T vote for me

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:18 pm

Chaosraven wrote:STOP

Withdraw your votes, for I am...

Well, maybe the Cursed.

Only thing I have to say is figure out why people WOULDN'T vote for me

As is every villager. Reasoning later.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:54 pm

Chaosraven wrote:STOP

Withdraw your votes, for I am...

Well, maybe the Cursed.

Only thing I have to say is figure out why people WOULDN'T vote for me

Cheeky CR you got me good there

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 11:19 pm

Moliere

Mostly to give me time to ponder.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Thu Jan 22, 2015 9:00 am

Chaosraven

Thought.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:15 am

Someone will have to Scoop, Newcastle isn't here and well Scoop is busy being fabulous somewhere