I think the results are fine. Profit is nice, though I'm sure we'll see a ton of articles saying it was only due to regulatory credits. (Which is true, but those aren't going anywhere anytime soon.) Why Tesla gets so much flak for being literally paid by their competitors to expand production is something I've never understood.
Highlights for me:
-Subtract out the credits and you still have approximately even FCF. During a pandemic with the main factory shut down for half the quarter.
-Margins steady during a pandemic.
-Solar is a bit down QoQ and YoY, which I would guess is due to the solar roof product ramping and eating away at retrofit in the meantime.
-They say Q1 2021 for Model Y in Shanghai, which I am certain is sandbagging. We'll see at least some this year.
-$8.6B cash on hand exiting the quarter.
-Still shooting for 500k this year, which would be incredible given the circumstances. But even if they miss it, Shanghai is doubling in size, Berlin is being built, and Austin (I presume, could be Tulsa I suppose) site is selected and will begin build-out soon. This year is kind of not that big a deal given the pandemic so long as they get through it with the factory expansions making progress and without eating all their cash. Their yearly results will certainly look rosy compared to every other automaker.
Why Tesla gets so much flak for being literally paid by their competitors to expand production is something I've never understood.
It's what attracted to me. *shrug* When the price dropped, I had sat in on a TESLAcentric discussion on EVs vs ICEs, weight driven costs of powering vehicles, and US and European standards on Carbon, and specifically how much FCA would end up paying TESLA. I was sold on the continued viability of the company that day. 18 months ago, that discussion had industry insiders bulls giving TESLA a blue sky of $900 a share. I couldn't see it but I was sold on the idea that 300,000,000 in carbon tax credit a year + IP + the solar unit was worth $300 a share.
It shows that Tesla is a pure growth play at this point.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:22 am
by noxiousdog
1) I worked and owned Enron. Shady businessmen run shady companies.
2) If the profit comes from tax credits, how do you get to $53/share selling vehicles? Without those credits, they lost $300 million selling cars, though, to be fair, they lost $200 million and gave $100 million to said shady businessman. Sure they can get those credits every year, but then you don't assign them an earnings multiple, or if you do, it's not 50x 2023 earnings. That's saying you expect them to continue for 100 years.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:32 am
by Zaxxon
OK.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:50 am
by LordMortis
noxiousdog wrote: ↑Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:22 am
Sure they can get those credits every year, but then you don't assign them an earnings multiple, or if you do, it's not 50x 2023 earnings. That's saying you expect them to continue for 100 years.
You should expect those credits to shrink every year as your competitive space changes. if Amazon get 100,000 RIVIAN vans by 2023 as their commercials seem to imply, then that is some portion of 100,000 RIVIAN vans who will also seek to sell carbon credits as competition from the same OEMs and if what we believe we know about EVs is true (that weight is the big figure for carbon credit costs but is a very small figure in EV carbon emission (as EVs claim most of their energy back when braking where ICE engines lose all of their energy)) then the space for carbon credits is going to go down dramatically, even if companies like FCA do not begin to produce more heavier vehicles with smaller carbon emissions.
It should be interesting. Especially RIVIAN and NIKOLA and the others don't have the following, the IP, or the other businesses that TESLA do.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:53 am
by LordMortis
Looking at my 2 shares of TROW this morning and what do I see?
Tesla Sues Rival EV Maker Rivian For Poaching Employees, Stealing Intellectual Property
3:11 am ET July 23, 2020 (Benzinga) Print
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) has sued rival electric vehicle startup Rivian Automotive Inc. for allegedly poaching its employees and stealing secrets, Bloomberg reported late Wednesday.
What Happened
The Elon Musk-led automaker says there is an “alarming pattern” of Rivian poaching employees and obtaining its intellectual property.
“Misappropriating Tesla’s competitively useful confidential information when leaving Tesla for a new employer is obviously wrong and risky,” the leading EV maker said in the complaint filed in a state court in San Jose, California.
“One would engage in that behavior only for an important benefit — to use it to serve the competitive interests of a new employer,” it further alleged.
Denying the allegations, Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN)-backed Rivian said it requires new employees to confirm “that they have not, and will not, introduce former employers’ intellectual property into [its] systems.”
Tesla says it is the “number one target from which to acquire information” for the Plymouth, Michigan-headquartered EV firm, as reported by Bloomberg.
Why It Matters
Rivian has reportedly hired 178 former Tesla employees, 70 of which joined the automaker directly after leaving Musk’s company. In April, another startup Silicon Valley-based Zoox acknowledged that some of its hires from Tesla were in possession of confidential information. The two companies have reconciled.
Tesla also sued a former employee for stealing secrets on behalf of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA)-backed Xpeng Motors last year.
The Palo Alto-based company declared an unexpected profit in the second quarter earlier in the day, with adjusted earnings per share of $2.19 per share.
Price Action
Tesla shares closed 1.5% higher at $1,592.33 on Wednesday and added another 4.1% in the after-hours session.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:52 pm
by Zaxxon
AFAIK we still do not have a Rivian thread, so I'll post this here: they just emailed out news that their pilot line begins running this week. R1T deliveries begin June 2021, R1S August 2021.
Also, we definitely don't have a Polestar thread, so... The Polestar 2 is making the review rounds now, even though getting one in the US is going to remain difficult for some time, it seems. This is another one that I think actually has a shot to do well if Geely/Volvo/Polestar actually decide to produce it in volume. The choice to go with Android Automotive for the whole car's UI is intriguing.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:37 pm
by Zaxxon
LordMortis wrote: ↑Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:11 am
As TSLA approaches 1300 this morning, I think I will sell my last share at open. I'll regret losing my lone share when it breaks 2000...
LordMortis wrote: ↑Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:11 am
As TSLA approaches 1300 this morning, I think I will sell my last share at open. I'll regret losing my lone share when it breaks 2000...
Which necessitates the question, are you retired yet? (Also it "down" to about 1600 just a week ago)
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:17 pm
by LawBeefaroni
There is a lot of misunderstanding about how splits work going on right now.
I read how some people are promoting buying puts because the price is going to "fall" by 80% in a 5:1 split. I mean why not just sell naked calls at $1000 Strike? Free $100K per!!!
I blame Robinhood.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:18 pm
by coopasonic
Tomorrow is the second anniversary of the purchase of my model 3. If I had bought tesla shares instead I would have an extra $300k if I sold right now. Why'd I have to buy the damn car!
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:21 pm
by Zaxxon
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:17 pm
There is a lot of misunderstanding about how splits work going on right now.
I read how some people are promoting buying puts because the price is going to "fall" by 80% in a 5:1 split. I mean why not just sell naked calls at $1000 Strike? Free $100K per!!!
I blame Robinhood.
People b dum.
LordMortis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:11 pm
Which necessitates the question, are you retired yet? (Also it "down" to about 1600 just a week ago)
Alas, I am not.
coopasonic wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:18 pm
Tomorrow is the second anniversary of the purchase of my model 3. If I had bought tesla shares instead I would have an extra $300k if I sold right now. Why'd I have to buy the damn car!
Uhhuh.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:24 pm
by LordMortis
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:17 pm
There is a lot of misunderstanding about how splits work going on right now.
I read how some people are promoting buying puts because the price is going to "fall" by 80% in a 5:1 split. I mean why not just sell naked calls at $1000 Strike? Free $100K per!!!
I blame Robinhood.
Haven't splits always caused unwarranted spikes in price. I wouldn't have sold my last share(s) of AAPL if I knew they were going to announce split shortly thereafter.
Spreading stupidity and accepting is another thing though. Who do we blame we do such things? Me? I blame myself. I've done some stupid things. If you have the stomach for faith to value TSLA at 375 Billion dollars. That's your prerogative. If you had the stomach or faith to value them at 175 Billion and kept with them then you are very happy right now.
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:17 pm
There is a lot of misunderstanding about how splits work going on right now.
I read how some people are promoting buying puts because the price is going to "fall" by 80% in a 5:1 split. I mean why not just sell naked calls at $1000 Strike? Free $100K per!!!
I blame Robinhood.
Haven't splits always caused unwarranted spikes in price. I wouldn't have sold my last share(s) of AAPL if I knew they were going to announce split shortly thereafter.
Spreading stupidity and accepting is another thing though. Who do we blame we do such things? Me? I blame myself. I've done some stupid things. If you have the stomach for faith to value TSLA at 375 Billion dollars. That's your prerogative. If you had the stomach or faith to value them at 175 Billion and kept with them then you are very happy right now.
Splits can have a moderate effect on share price but nothing like what has happened to TSLA. The thinking is that when it's $200 or $400 or whereever it ends up when it splits, more retail buyers will scoop it up. But that doesn't account for 40% or whatever since they announced.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:40 pm
by Zaxxon
LordMortis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:24 pmSpreading stupidity and accepting is another thing though. Who do we blame we do such things? Me? I blame myself. I've done some stupid things. If you have the stomach for faith to value TSLA at 375 Billion dollars. That's your prerogative. If you had the stomach or faith to value them at 175 Billion and kept with them then you are very happy right now.
I first bought in when the market cap was < $4B and everyone who knew, other than my lovely wife, thought I was nuts. Who knows where it goes from here. I'm not selling [the bulk of] my stock, as I still believe the company's future is upward, as crazy as many of you think it sounds. I have been locking in some income via covered calls for some time now, though, and sold a significant %age back well below $1k (hindsight aaaarrrggghhhhh).
No benchmark for retirement anytime soon. Thanks, America, for the shitty healthcare situation for anyone not working for The Man or on Medicare.
coopasonic wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:34 pm
Still $2000, but post split.
OK, yeah; that'd probably do it.
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:35 pm
Splits can have a moderate effect on share price but nothing like what has happened to TSLA. The thinking is that when it's $200 or $400 or whereever it ends up when it splits, more retail buyers will scoop it up. But that doesn't account for 40% or whatever since they announced.
Yeah, this week has been insane.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:43 pm
by LordMortis
A mere 25% Shit, that's nothing. I was going to (and didn't) invest in CELH at $11 at the tale end of June. And they're like $24 now. (I need to remember to take them off my watchlist so I am stop reminded of what isn't the case and don't use that as encouraging temptation to do something dumber than my normal levels of dumb) That's like a sustained rate of nearly 20% per week. Not just a run off of 25% in one week.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:53 pm
by LawBeefaroni
LordMortis wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:43 pm
A mere 25% Shit, that's nothing. I was going to (and didn't) invest in CELH at $11 at the tale end of June. And they're like $24 now. (I need to remember to take them off my watchlist so I am stop reminded of what isn't the case and don't use that as encouraging temptation to do something dumber than my normal levels of dumb) That's like a sustained rate of nearly 20% per week. Not just a run off of 25% in one week.
OSTK was $2.50 in March.
TSLA isn't impossibly valued but the bigger the market cap the more it need to justify these kinds of moves. IMO it's overvalued and I'm probably going to trade it post-split.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:57 pm
by Zaxxon
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:53 pm
TSLA isn't impossibly valued but the bigger the market cap the more it need to justify these kinds of moves. IMO it's overvalued and I'm probably going to trade it post-split.
Even I am flabbergasted at > $2k today.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 5:31 pm
by RunningMn9
Where is Elon tweeting about how overvalued the stock is? I can think of no greater example of stock market absurdity than TSLA. There is nothing that happened this year to justify a 1000% increase in stock price. I mean, you love to see it if you own it I guess, but it’s utterly ridiculous.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 5:34 pm
by Zaxxon
RunningMn9 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 5:31 pm
Where is Elon tweeting about how overvalued the stock is? I can think of no greater example of stock market absurdity than TSLA. There is nothing that happened this year to justify a 1000% increase in stock price. I mean, you love to see it if you own it I guess, but it’s utterly ridiculous.
Technically he said the stock price was too high. They're splitting to address that.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:38 pm
by noxiousdog
RunningMn9 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 5:31 pm
Where is Elon tweeting about how overvalued the stock is? I can think of no greater example of stock market absurdity than TSLA. There is nothing that happened this year to justify a 1000% increase in stock price. I mean, you love to see it if you own it I guess, but it’s utterly ridiculous.
They still haven't made $1 profit selling cars.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:44 pm
by Isgrimnur
Microsoft and Sony don't profit much from selling new consoles, either.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:52 pm
by RunningMn9
Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:44 pm
Microsoft and Sony don't profit much from selling new consoles, either.
Microsoft and Sony aren't console companies.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 9:04 am
by noxiousdog
Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 8:44 pm
Microsoft and Sony don't profit much from selling new consoles, either.
And Amazon hardly makes anything from retail. However, they have do have a product that is growing in profit 20% YoY.
Clearly I have a chip on my shoulder about this, but this is nonsense. There are thousands of people who are going to lose a significant amount of wealth over this. I know it's not the first time, but it makes me angry every time.
TSLA just passed Walmart in market cap. If there was ever a poster child for the greater fool theory, this is it.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:08 am
by Isgrimnur
Invest in tulips. It's a sure thing.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:11 am
by noxiousdog
Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:08 am
Invest in tulips. It's a sure thing.
The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) on Friday said it had opened an investigation into around 115,0000 Tesla vehicles over a front suspension safety issue.
The auto safety regulator said it was opening a preliminary evaluation into 2015-2017 Model S and 2016-2017 Model X vehicles after receiving 43 complaints alleging failure of the left or right front suspension fore links.
...
Last week, NHTSA said it was expanding a separate probe into nearly 159,000 Tesla Model S and Model X vehicles, upgrading it to an engineering analysis, a step required before it can seek to compel recalls.
NHTSA had opened a preliminary evaluation in June over touchscreen failures. The agency said the failure can result in the loss of rear-camera image display when in reverse and reduced rear visibility when backing up, and can impact defogging ability, and audible chimes relating to Autopilot and turn signals.
That probe now covers 2012-2018 model year Tesla Model S and 2016-2018 Model X vehicles. The preliminary investigation covered 63,000 Tesla Model S cars.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 11:18 pm
by LawBeefaroni
Tesla is a tech company, not an automotive company. 5+ years is a lifetime in tech.
But hey, it's sexy.
Market cap...
Tesla (sexy): $555B
Berkshire (not sexy): $543B
And TSLA 600 didn't last. A lot of money switched hands today.
Closing Price
$566.18
Day's Range
554.51-607.80
Volume(Heavy Day)
59,704,651
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2020 5:27 pm
by Zaxxon
I would posit that the pre-S&P entry volatility is nowhere near played out. The specifics of the entry timeline (one tranche, two, something else) should be announced tonight.
It's official: Tesla has to recall almost 135,000 Models S and X electric vehicles due to a design defect that bricks the EVs' infotainment screens within four years of driving. The recall affects Model S sedans built between 2012 and 2018 as well as Model X SUVs built between 2016 and 2018, and owners should be notified by the automaker in the month of March.
The issue, which we first covered back in November 2020, has been well-known to the Tesla owners community for some time now. The problem is caused by an 8GB eMMC NAND flash memory chip, fitted to the Media Control Unit of the brand's Nvidia Tegra 3-powered infotainment systems. Logs are written to the flash memory every time the car is in use, which soon reaches its lifetime number of write cycles; once this limit has been reached, the touchscreen dies, taking out the legally mandated backup camera and defrost/defogging controls, as well as exterior turn signal lighting. (The problem does not affect more recent Models S or X that use Intel's Apollo Lake processor; those models also use a 64GB eMMC.)
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:41 pm
by coopasonic
Good thing they didn't sell that many cars back then!
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:02 am
by LordMortis
I guess Zax no longer gets to pimp Tesla while dissing Bitcoin. That $5 billion cash raise? 1.5 billion in bitcoin buys
In January 2021, we updated our investment policy to provide us with more flexibility to further diversify and maximize returns on our cash that is not required to maintain adequate operating liquidity. As part of the policy, which was duly approved by the Audit Committee of our Board of Directors, we may invest a portion of such cash in certain alternative reserve assets including digital assets, gold bullion, gold exchange-traded funds and other assets as specified in the future. Thereafter, we invested an aggregate $1.50 billion in bitcoin under this policy and may acquire and hold digital assets from time to time or long-term. Moreover, we expect to begin accepting bitcoin as a form of payment for our products in the near future, subject to applicable laws and initially on a limited basis, which we may or may not liquidate upon receipt.
Edit, it looks like breaking news of this symbiosis is driving up both values.
Re: tesla motors
Posted: Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:20 am
by Zaxxon
LordMortis wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:02 am
I guess Zax no longer gets to pimp Tesla while dissing Bitcoin.
Why wouldn't I? Here: Teslas are awesome, and BTC is <something else>.
It may surprise you to learn that I do not agree with all of Tesla's and Musk's decisions. (Simple example: it's been obvious for at least 18 months that Tesla should have replaced all of the EMMC chips on the early S/Xs under warranty. Its cost is trivial to Tesla, the issue impacts their earliest supporters, and it's a bad look to have the NHTSA have to tell you to replace a core component that was either designed to fail early or misdesigned and therefore fails early.)
All that said, I'm not necessarily opposed to the company taking a small (on the scale of 2021 Tesla) position in BTC for the same reason I'm OK with LawBeef doing it--it makes sense to have exposure to Bitcoin given Bitcoin's rising position on the global currency market. I am not nearly informed enough to have a strong opinion one way or the other.
Shit, that's nothing. I was going to (and didn't) invest in CELH at $11 at the tale end of June. And they're like $24 now. (I need to remember to take them off my watchlist so I am stop reminded of what isn't the case and don't use that as encouraging temptation to do something dumber than my normal levels of dumb) That's like a sustained rate of nearly 20% per week. Not just a run off of 25% in one week.
