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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2021 3:06 pm
by Smoove_B
Octavious wrote: Mon Nov 01, 2021 2:56 pm Machin has said he's not in on the 1.75 Trillion bill. We're fooked

The framework that Manchin is now trashing was one he negotiated more directly with the White House than probably any other single Senator.
There is no interest in making any of this happen; it's all theater.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2021 3:36 pm
by pr0ner
Octavious wrote: Mon Nov 01, 2021 2:56 pm I think we know the answer to the original question. Yes they will self destruct. Machin has said he's not in on the 1.75 Trillion bill. We're fooked.. And tomorrow will probably get creamed in Virginia. So much winning.
Please define "creamed in Virginia" for me, someone who actually gets to vote in Virginia tomorrow.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2021 3:37 pm
by Octavious
Losing is creamed. Even if it's one vote. So probably not an accurate statement. Feels like all the momentum is on the R side. I'd love to be wrong.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2021 3:59 pm
by El Guapo
The thing is that we're probably screwed even if Youngkin wins tomorrow. People are going to put a ton of importance on the result as some augur for 2024, and for sure it is of consequence whether Virginia has a trumpist as its governor, but even if McAuliffe wins by a healthy margin it's not going to materially change the dozen or so reasons why we're boned.

I guess I'm not sure whether that helps or not.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2021 4:23 pm
by Octavious
We're likely screwed no matter what but losing Virginia is going to look badddddd.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2021 4:23 pm
by pr0ner
Octavious wrote: Mon Nov 01, 2021 3:37 pm Losing is creamed. Even if it's one vote. So probably not an accurate statement. Feels like all the momentum is on the R side. I'd love to be wrong.
Sure, momentum is with Youngkin, but the race is tight, and losing does not exactly equal creamed.

Unfortunately, it's not like McAuliffe has run a campaign guaranteed to win here this time (he didn't win by a lot in 2013, either), and Virginia as a whole is not a liberal stronghold.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2021 8:29 pm
by Octavious
My brother must be on a business trip this week lol. Malchior did you die?

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2021 10:21 pm
by malchior
Octavious wrote: Mon Nov 01, 2021 8:29 pm My brother must be on a business trip this week lol. Malchior did you die?
This is correct. I am in CA and can't care about this right now after a 15 hour work day. Still I am unsurprised by the turn of events. I have been operating from an assumption that Manchin was a garbage human. He has proved it out over and over.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2021 7:36 am
by malchior
Putting aside the dumb wealth framing, assholes chasing Senate assholes around is a bad new trend.


Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2021 8:44 am
by Blackhawk
"Tried to run us over."
Spoiler:

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2021 9:01 am
by malchior
Big time. Still the serious undertone is that we are seeing people getting more focused on their "targets" of ire. As more pressure builds, I fear one of these encounters turns into a violent incident. It worries me since this system is a tinderbox.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2021 9:22 am
by malchior
In other news, there is a good chance the BBB and BIF plans pass in the House today. I expect the reconciliation bill will languish in the Senate but in the end the progressive blockade accomplished little. As expected. Manchin/Sinema (and by extention the super wealthy) win again. But that works in a world where they have white, uneducated women chasing the specter of CRT out of classrooms across the nation.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2021 10:09 am
by malchior
The Democrats fly off the rails! Now the moderates in the House at the 11th hour are demanding CBO scoring of BBB or *they won't vote*. You can't make this stuff up. I intentionally chose the most ironic response just because it's full on 'our nation is clown shoes' time.


Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2021 10:44 am
by Isgrimnur
If someone did that to a police officer, in the unlikely event that they survived to go to trial, they'd be charged with all the things.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2021 10:51 am
by LordMortis
Manchin is not exactly in my top five of favorite people but attempting to prevent egress/ingress is not something I would consider (protected) protesting. I consider that a hazard.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2021 11:09 am
by Isgrimnur
As it's not a public space or owned by one of the protesters, they're absolutely trespassing.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2021 11:46 am
by malchior
Criminality plus let's chase and block him in at his home is a super solid strategy for advocating change.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2021 12:50 pm
by malchior

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2021 12:59 pm
by malchior
Simple messaging like this months ago would have been fucking helpful. Instead they let the conversation be bogged down by huge numbers and stupid in-fighting.


Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2021 5:50 pm
by Zarathud
In-fighting is pretty bad now. Pelosi is holding a vote on the rule for considering the reconciliation bill but may not have the votes.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2021 6:47 pm
by Skinypupy
Zarathud wrote: Fri Nov 05, 2021 5:50 pm In-fighting is pretty bad now. Pelosi is holding a vote on the rule for considering the reconciliation bill but may not have the votes.
And every one of them will point to the others and say "If only they would get in line, then something would get done!" All while absolutely nothing continues to get done and every lever of power is handed back to the GOP...who could not have asked for a better gift at this particular moment in history. :grund:

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2021 6:56 pm
by pr0ner

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2021 7:30 pm
by malchior
I'm thinking the Democrats in disarray meme is not all that unfair at the moment.


Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2021 12:46 am
by Defiant
Defiant wrote: Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:35 am I think I've said this before, but if Republicans were smart, they'd back the bipartisan bill by enough that the progressives couldn't vote it down. Which would further divide the two sides, and almost make Republicans look good. Well, look less thoroughly evil.
And it looks like Republicans in the House took my advice to heart and voted for the bipartisan bill by enough that had they not, it would have failed, because six progressive Democrats voted against it. Only, they only did it after the Democrats have repeatedly shown them, from what I can tell, to be more incompetent than they have ever been before - well played, Republicans, well played.

It hurts those progressives by removing their leverage, further divided Democrats, and has Republicans save the day, as it were. OTOH, it does mean that they gave Biden a win.


Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2021 5:00 am
by malchior
It also gives the corporate Dems an out if/when they pull the BBB ball away. They'll possibly claim the Progressives broke the deal. Even then, it still feels to me that the BBB bill will happen but the GOP just handed Manchin even more leverage to squeeze more out of it.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2021 11:39 am
by El Guapo
Yeah I would say the upshot is that the absolute worst case scenario - neither bill passes, McConnell cackles with glee, and the Democratic caucus starts competing in the Hunger Games - is off the table. Further, I don't think Manchin / Sinema / House "moderates" will want to fully kill the reconciliation bill, since there are things they'll want and its bad PR for them if they deliver nothing. But they'll have the leverage to cut it down a lot.

Best case scenario is that Manchin's pressure leads them to have half a dozen permanent programs rather than a dozen programs that will suddenly end during Trump's second term, which is what they should do anyway. But I'm not holding my breath.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2021 12:04 pm
by Smoove_B
It is rather interesting that the focus seems to be on how the Democrats barely passed the bill and it wasn't even fully supported. Instead the focus seems to be on how it was necessary for the Republicans to lend support, somehow painting them as saviors. Why, I wonder, doesn't the media largely focus on just how many members of the GOP once again voted against something most Americans wanted?

Like...the nation is literally and figuratively falling to pieces and there's a sizeable chunk of Congress that is doing everything they can to stop even the most basic investments in our infrastructure.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2021 12:59 pm
by malchior
The honest truth seems to be that the biggest media players are not really healthy institutions. They suffer from much of the same rot as our institutions. Also, they are incentivized and driven by competition with social media to draw eyes and clicks. And even then it is chock full of just flawed analysis.

Chris Cillizza as editor-at-large of CNN? I mean really. The NY Times has become a parody of itself half the time as the Pitchbot keeps pointing out with sharpness. The airwaves are just loaded with pundits who occasionally are helpful but I'd guess 80% or more are not. It's an information wasteland out there.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2021 1:37 pm
by Pyperkub
malchior wrote:It also gives the corporate Dems an out if/when they pull the BBB ball away. They'll possibly claim the Progressives broke the deal. Even then, it still feels to me that the BBB bill will happen but the GOP just handed Manchin even more leverage to squeeze more out of it.
If that happens, just use reconciliation to pass voting rights reform this year.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2021 2:25 pm
by Defiant
Pyperkub wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 1:37 pm
malchior wrote:It also gives the corporate Dems an out if/when they pull the BBB ball away. They'll possibly claim the Progressives broke the deal. Even then, it still feels to me that the BBB bill will happen but the GOP just handed Manchin even more leverage to squeeze more out of it.
If that happens, just use reconciliation to pass voting rights reform this year.
I don't think they can do that, because, IIUC, reconciliation bills have to be budgetary bills (as determined by the Senate Parliamentarian)

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2021 2:31 pm
by Alefroth
Defiant wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 2:25 pm
Pyperkub wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 1:37 pm
malchior wrote:It also gives the corporate Dems an out if/when they pull the BBB ball away. They'll possibly claim the Progressives broke the deal. Even then, it still feels to me that the BBB bill will happen but the GOP just handed Manchin even more leverage to squeeze more out of it.
If that happens, just use reconciliation to pass voting rights reform this year.
I don't think they can do that, because, IIUC, reconciliation bills have to be budgetary bills (as determined by the Senate Parliamentarian)
That's correct, but they wouldn't even be able to pass it if it was allowed.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2021 2:33 pm
by Smoove_B
Just for the record:
Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania
Rep. Andrew Garbarino of New York
Rep. Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio
Rep. John Katko of New York
Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois
Rep. Nicole Malliotakis of New York
Rep. David McKinley of West Virginia
Rep. Tom Reed of New York
Rep. Chris Smith of New Jersey
Rep. Fred Upton of Michigan
Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey
Rep. Don Young of Alaska
These are the 13 GOP members that supported the infrastructure bill. The two NJ representatives are garbage people (Van Drew in particular), so I'm not really sure why they supported it. But more interesting to me is who isn't on that list? Liz Cheney. Funny that.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2021 5:23 pm
by malchior
Defiant wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 2:25 pm
Pyperkub wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 1:37 pm
malchior wrote:It also gives the corporate Dems an out if/when they pull the BBB ball away. They'll possibly claim the Progressives broke the deal. Even then, it still feels to me that the BBB bill will happen but the GOP just handed Manchin even more leverage to squeeze more out of it.
If that happens, just use reconciliation to pass voting rights reform this year.
I don't think they can do that, because, IIUC, reconciliation bills have to be budgetary bills (as determined by the Senate Parliamentarian)
+1

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2021 5:26 pm
by malchior
Smoove_B wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 2:33 pmThese are the 13 GOP members that supported the infrastructure bill. The two NJ representatives are garbage people (Van Drew in particular), so I'm not really sure why they supported it.
I imagine Pelosi traded them something in return - perhaps they'll add something into the BBB bill for them.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Sat Nov 06, 2021 6:25 pm
by Zaxxon
malchior wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 5:26 pm
Smoove_B wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 2:33 pmThese are the 13 GOP members that supported the infrastructure bill. The two NJ representatives are garbage people (Van Drew in particular), so I'm not really sure why they supported it.
I imagine Pelosi traded them something in return - perhaps they'll add something into the BBB bill for them.
Well, Kinzinger has the clear eyes that come with about-to-retiritis.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 2:57 pm
by pr0ner
El Guapo wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 11:39 am Yeah I would say the upshot is that the absolute worst case scenario - neither bill passes, McConnell cackles with glee, and the Democratic caucus starts competing in the Hunger Games - is off the table. Further, I don't think Manchin / Sinema / House "moderates" will want to fully kill the reconciliation bill, since there are things they'll want and its bad PR for them if they deliver nothing. But they'll have the leverage to cut it down a lot.

Best case scenario is that Manchin's pressure leads them to have half a dozen permanent programs rather than a dozen programs that will suddenly end during Trump's second term, which is what they should do anyway. But I'm not holding my breath.
Neither bill passes? Which other bill are you talking about? The infrastructure bill already passed the Senate (69-30 was the vote!) with a ton of Republican support, and is off to Biden for his signature.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 3:00 pm
by malchior
pr0ner wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 2:57 pm
El Guapo wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 11:39 am Yeah I would say the upshot is that the absolute worst case scenario - neither bill passes, McConnell cackles with glee, and the Democratic caucus starts competing in the Hunger Games - is off the table. Further, I don't think Manchin / Sinema / House "moderates" will want to fully kill the reconciliation bill, since there are things they'll want and its bad PR for them if they deliver nothing. But they'll have the leverage to cut it down a lot.

Best case scenario is that Manchin's pressure leads them to have half a dozen permanent programs rather than a dozen programs that will suddenly end during Trump's second term, which is what they should do anyway. But I'm not holding my breath.
Neither bill passes? Which other bill are you talking about? The infrastructure bill already passed the Senate (69-30 was the vote!) with a ton of Republican support, and is off to Biden for his signature.
FWIW my read on what El Guapo is saying is that since the bill passed the (very unlikely) disaster possibility that neither passes is now off the table.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 3:00 pm
by pr0ner
Smoove_B wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 12:04 pm It is rather interesting that the focus seems to be on how the Democrats barely passed the bill and it wasn't even fully supported. Instead the focus seems to be on how it was necessary for the Republicans to lend support, somehow painting them as saviors. Why, I wonder, doesn't the media largely focus on just how many members of the GOP once again voted against something most Americans wanted?

Like...the nation is literally and figuratively falling to pieces and there's a sizeable chunk of Congress that is doing everything they can to stop even the most basic investments in our infrastructure.
Well, as I said to El Guapo above, 19 Republican senators already voted for the bill. There's a reason the media kept calling it the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill. It's just wild that some House GOPers were ready to paint their Republican colleagues as traitors for voting for something that already had decent Republican support in Congress.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 3:01 pm
by El Guapo
pr0ner wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 2:57 pm
El Guapo wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 11:39 am Yeah I would say the upshot is that the absolute worst case scenario - neither bill passes, McConnell cackles with glee, and the Democratic caucus starts competing in the Hunger Games - is off the table. Further, I don't think Manchin / Sinema / House "moderates" will want to fully kill the reconciliation bill, since there are things they'll want and its bad PR for them if they deliver nothing. But they'll have the leverage to cut it down a lot.

Best case scenario is that Manchin's pressure leads them to have half a dozen permanent programs rather than a dozen programs that will suddenly end during Trump's second term, which is what they should do anyway. But I'm not holding my breath.
Neither bill passes? Which other bill are you talking about? The infrastructure bill already passed the Senate (69-30 was the vote!) with a ton of Republican support, and is off to Biden for his signature.
Ummm yeah which I why I said that that possibility is "off the table". I.e., it is no longer possible for neither bill (e.g., neither reconciliation nor infrastructure) to pass.

Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?

Posted: Mon Nov 08, 2021 3:01 pm
by pr0ner
malchior wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 3:00 pm
pr0ner wrote: Mon Nov 08, 2021 2:57 pm
El Guapo wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 11:39 am Yeah I would say the upshot is that the absolute worst case scenario - neither bill passes, McConnell cackles with glee, and the Democratic caucus starts competing in the Hunger Games - is off the table. Further, I don't think Manchin / Sinema / House "moderates" will want to fully kill the reconciliation bill, since there are things they'll want and its bad PR for them if they deliver nothing. But they'll have the leverage to cut it down a lot.

Best case scenario is that Manchin's pressure leads them to have half a dozen permanent programs rather than a dozen programs that will suddenly end during Trump's second term, which is what they should do anyway. But I'm not holding my breath.
Neither bill passes? Which other bill are you talking about? The infrastructure bill already passed the Senate (69-30 was the vote!) with a ton of Republican support, and is off to Biden for his signature.
FWIW my read on what El Guapo is saying is that since the bill passed the (very unlikely) disaster possibility that neither passes is now off the table.
Ah, yes, after re-reading his post again, I see what you're saying.