Octopus Overlords

Sweet, I got back 46.7k of my first quarter loss of 50k from my IRA. Glad I didn't panic. Big sigh of relief.

CNN

Mortgage rates fell below 3% for the first time ever as the economy continues to struggle from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low of 2.98% this past week, according to Freddie Mac. That's the lowest level in the nearly 50 years of the mortgage giant's survey. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 2.48%.

The average rate for a 30-year-fixed mortgage dropped below last week's record low of 3.03% and marks the seventh new low since March.
...
Rates that are more than 80 basis points below last year's level mean financing the typical home is $125 less per month versus the same-priced home at last year's rates, she said.

BI

Virgin Atlantic filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy in New York on Tuesday, becoming the latest airline forced into reorganization during the coronavirus pandemic.

The London-based airline flies exclusively long-haul international routes. It suspended all passenger operations in April when the coronavirus pandemic triggered a crash in travel demand. It began flying passengers again in July. It is 49% owned by Delta, with Branson's Virgin Group owning the remaining 51%.

Chapter 15 is an obscure part of the US Bankruptcy Code designed to facilitate cooperation between US courts and foreign bankruptcy courts. It was added to the code in 2005 by the by the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act, and replaced section 304 of the code.

In essence, Chapter 15 allows foreign individuals or companies to file for bankruptcy protection in the US in cases where assets in more than one country are involved.

The courts can coordinate, and debtors are protected from creditors coming after US-based assets while a bankruptcy hearing is held in another country.

hitbyambulance wrote: ↑Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:19 pm

hitbyambulance wrote: ↑Wed Jun 17, 2020 9:07 pm manager and the director of my department are going to make a last-ditch effort to get my contract extended. the company really really _really_ does not want to retain any contractors right now, however. the decision is now up to one of the VPs and the executive director of the entire organization - i should find out soon.

aaand contract extended by two months.

another manager called me and wanted to know my interest in working for the organization FT 'should the headcount open up'. supposedly it was going to happen 'for sure' in 2021, but now they're pushing for the end of this month. i was told when the job posting goes up that i should submit my application for it and i will go through an 'abbreviated' interview process (and not the full four to five hour one). this is the most convoluted contract-to-full-time conversion i've ever encountered, but the good news is the job title is exactly what i want, so that counts for a _lot_.

Despite AMC Theaters opening back up, they appear to have taken the opportunity to trim some of their low-performers, including my local that they acquired in the 2016 Carmike acquisition.

ABC News

American Airlines notified 19,000 of its U.S. employees on Tuesday that they will be furloughed this fall as the federal relief under the CARES Act is set to expire.

In order to receive aid through the Payroll Support Program (PSP), airlines are prohibited from laying off any employees until Oct. 1. As that deadline looms, other airlines are also announcing job cuts as air travel remains down around 70% compared with last year and experts predict it will not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024.

July Unemployment - 10.2% (0.9%)

Table A-4 - >= Age 25 by education level

Category	Percent	Change	YOY Change
Less than a high school diploma	14.9	0.5	10.3
High school graduates, no college	10.8	1.1	7.2
Some college or associate degree	10.2	0.6	7.2
Bachelor's degree and higher	7.1	0.1	4.6

Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 19.1% (5.4 , 5.8 YOY)


Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment

Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs	8.1
Job leavers	0.4
Reentrants	1.5
New entrants	0.5

Table A-12 - Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment

	Weeks	Change	YOY Change
Average Duration	16.1	2.7	2.6
Median Duration	13.7	3.1	5.8

I'm both sad and proud that this thread now encompasses two historic economic disasters.

From the OP:

Little Raven wrote: ↑Mon Sep 22, 2008 11:17 am The age of the investment bank has officially passed.

Bwahahaha!

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:01 pm From the OP:

Little Raven wrote: ↑Mon Sep 22, 2008 11:17 am The age of the investment bank has officially passed.

Bwahahaha!

Too meta for me. "Cannot GET /107/story/52862.html"

i have been doing some job interviewing on the side these past few months, and i've noticed getting some significant lowball offers for these roles. like, insultingly low. an ex-coworker reported the same. this is in the software+hardware development industry on the west coast, even. i'm sure this the true libertarian free market paradise now.

Supply and demand.

AP News

The U.S. economy shrank at an alarming annual rate of 31.7% during the April-June quarter as it struggled under the weight of the viral pandemic, the government estimated Thursday. It was the sharpest quarterly drop on record.

The Commerce Department downgraded its earlier estimate of the U.S. gross domestic product last quarter, finding that the devastation was slightly less than the 32.9% annualized contraction it had estimated at the end of July. The previous worst quarterly drop since record-keeping began in 1947 was a 10% annualized loss in 1958.

The payroll tax suspension is supposed to take effect on 9/1. How is your employer handling it, or how are you as an employer handling it? Do businesses have the option to just plain ignore it?

By my understanding -- and there has been very little official clarification -- we are supposed to stop withholding the employee portion of the social security tax (but not the Medicare tax) through the end of the year. Employees will then be responsible for paying the amount that wasn't withheld next April...unless Congress forgives it.

As a business who pays myself W-2 income, I'd rather not stop withholding because I don't' want to risk getting a big bill later on. Can I continue to withhold the money and keep it in escrow? If I have to stop taking it out of my paychecks, can I then escrow it as my employer, or do I have to do that in my employee role?

Absent any official guidance, I'm planning to keep on withholding FICA, then pay it out to myself next spring, either to cover the tax bill if it comes due or as a bonus if it doesn't.

How the hell do I account for any of this in QuickBooks?

This is Trump illegally cooking the economic books and cheating the government of payroll taxes, leaving the mess as a poison pill to Biden as a tax increase. Continue to withhold, as the IRS has no clue.

My big government contracting employer has said nothing will change from a withholding stand point. Which is good because I didn't feel like tracking what I needed to save and didn't need to save. If spent it, I certainly would not magically be getting the money to make up any short fall in my taxes next year. I have every intention to just sock it away if the situation changes.

Zarathud wrote: ↑Sun Aug 30, 2020 11:29 am This is Trump illegally cooking the economic books and cheating the government of payroll taxes, leaving the mess as a poison pill to Biden as a tax increase. Continue to withhold, as the IRS has no clue.

Yeah, It is definetly an election year. Sigh... Promise stupid stuff that just confuses everyone, and the best you can do is ignore it, because if you try to take "advantage" of it, you will just get screwed.

Here everything is republican run. I wish we could replace them so both municipal broadband could spread and weed might get ground. So far its only guns guns guns guns guns because they are great.

It's at the employer's discretion, then? As a corporation myself, I have received no email or letter from any authority instructing me what to do -- I've only read news reports about tweets. I would much prefer to keep withholding as normal (and hope Wife's employer will do the same; need to monitor that, and intercept the money myself if they stop taking it out).

Our payroll and benefits are managed by a full-service PEO company, and those guys are always very good about sending out emails any time something changes with the withholding. We have received nothing so far regarding any changes.

CNN

With no air travel rebound or new federal help in sight, United Airlines says it will furlough about 20% of its frontline employees in less than a month's time.

In a new memo to its employees, United (UAL) says that 16,370 employees will be furloughed when payroll restrictions attached to a federal bailout expire October 1. United executives told reporters on Wednesday that the number is less than half of the airline's July furlough forecast, thanks in part to 7,400 employees accepting early retirements or voluntary departures, and an unspecified number taking unpaid leave.

United's memo calls furloughs a "heart-wrenching" last resort, but the airline "cannot continue with staffing levels that significantly exceed the schedule we fly."

Kraken wrote: ↑Sun Aug 30, 2020 10:49 am The payroll tax suspension is supposed to take effect on 9/1. How is your employer handling it, or how are you as an employer handling it? Do businesses have the option to just plain ignore it?

Today is the first payday after the date. HR just emailed us that they opted out of complying.

My company opted out as well.

I opted out, too, once I found out that was an option. The only people that I know were forced to participate are federal employees, and I don't imagine they're very happy about it.

Kraken wrote:I opted out, too, once I found out that was an option. The only people that I know were forced to participate are federal employees, and I don't imagine they're very happy about it.

Yeah, an email went out this week telling federal employees that it was happening, but it at least included a warning that the money was still owed.

RunningMn9 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:31 pm

Kraken wrote:I opted out, too, once I found out that was an option. The only people that I know were forced to participate are federal employees, and I don't imagine they're very happy about it.

Yeah, an email went out this week telling federal employees that it was happening, but it at least included a warning that the money was still owed.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/03/success/ ... index.html

What a clusterfuck this is going to be if I am reading CNN right

The deferral option is in effect for any paycheck issued from September 1 through the end of this year. Only employees whose regular pre-tax income is less than $2,000 a week (or less than $4,000 every two weeks) would be eligible.

...

But the catch is you'd have to pay those deferred taxes back between January 1 and May 1 of next year, said Mark Luscombe, principal analyst for Wolters Kluwer Tax & Accounting. So that same $50,000 earner would have to pay not only her regular Social Security taxes on her earnings for the first four months of 2021, she'd also have to pay the extra $119 per paycheck that her employer deferred this year.

Employers don't want to leave workers on the hook for that, said Neil Bradley, chief policy officer for the US Chamber of Commerce. "You're going to have to double their taxes beginning in January. You're making a decision about people's ability to make ends meet next year."

What's more, employers would be responsible for paying the deferred taxes back if the employee doesn't.

What a disaster. Glad to know I'm not impacted now, but I feel for people who will get hammered in 2021 by this short sighted decision.

It’s a trap for Biden if Trump loses, and a trap for Social Security if Trump wins. This is sinister policy.

pr0ner wrote: ↑Sat Sep 05, 2020 10:18 am What a disaster. Glad to know I'm not impacted now, but I feel for people who will get hammered in 2021 by this short sighted decision.

Add that to people who owe back rent.

Zarathud wrote: ↑Sat Sep 05, 2020 11:37 am It’s a trap for Biden if Trump loses, and a trap for Social Security if Trump wins. This is sinister policy.

Aside from the federal government, are many big employers participating? This isn't something anybody wants, and I'll be surprised if it's imposed on a significant fraction of workers.

Kraken wrote: ↑Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:14 pm

Zarathud wrote: ↑Sat Sep 05, 2020 11:37 am It’s a trap for Biden if Trump loses, and a trap for Social Security if Trump wins. This is sinister policy.

Aside from the federal government, are many big employers participating? This isn't something anybody wants, and I'll be surprised if it's imposed on a significant fraction of workers.

I work for the State of California and they said a big NOPE a few days ago.

August Unemployment - 8.4% (1.8%)

Table A-4 - >= Age 25 by education level

Category	Percent	Change	YOY Change
Less than a high school diploma	11.8	3.1	7.1
High school graduates, no college	9.8	1.0	6.2
Some college or associate degree	8.3	1.9	5.1
Bachelor's degree and higher	5.6	1.5	3.2

Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 15.8% (3.3 , 3.7 YOY)


Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment

Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs	6.4
Job leavers	0.4
Reentrants	1.3
New entrants	0.4

Table A-12 - Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment

	Weeks	Change	YOY Change
Average Duration	19.7	3.6	2.0
Median Duration	16.2	2.5	7.6

The Verge

Cineworld, owner of the largest chain of theaters in the UK and Ireland and the second-largest in the United States — Regal Cinemas — will reportedly close all its theaters next week, according to Variety, The Sunday Times, and others.

Variety reports that all 543 theaters in the US will be closed, which account for the chain’s 7,000+ screens in the region. The Sunday Times reports that it will close all 128 theaters in the UK and Ireland, too.

Both say James Bond is the reason.

Yesterday, the 25th James Bond film — No Time to Die — was pushed back to April 2021 due to the ongoing pandemic, denying theaters one of the last major tentpole releases due out this year. Apparently, theaters were counting on Bond, specifically, to arrive on time and help bail them out of poor ticket sales.

September Unemployment - 7.9% (0.5%)

Table A-4 - >= Age 25 by education level

Category	Percent	Change	YOY Change
Less than a high school diploma	9.5	2.3	5.5
High school graduates, no college	8.6	1.2	5.3
Some college or associate degree	8.0	0.3	5.2
Bachelor's degree and higher	4.7	0.9	2.7

Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 16.0% (0.2 , 3.9 YOY)


Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment

Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs	5.5
Job leavers	0.5
Reentrants	1.3
New entrants	0.3

Table A-12 - Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment

	Weeks	Change	YOY Change
Average Duration	21.9	2.2	1.1
Median Duration	18.2	2.0	8.4

Can someone explain to me how the monthly job report works? The September jobs report estimated that 661,000 jobs were added that month and so unemployment dropped to 7.9%. Yet it seemed that each week that month was a report that ~800,000+ new people filed for unemployment. So how did unemployment drop if only 660k jobs were added?

Or does the 661,000 jobs added mean net jobs added?

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:02 am Can someone explain to me how the monthly job report works? The September jobs report estimated that 661,000 jobs were added that month and so unemployment dropped to 7.9%. Yet it seemed that each week that month was a report that ~800,000+ new people filed for unemployment. So how did unemployment drop if only 660k jobs were added?

Approximately 1 million left the workforce, and aren't counted as unemployed. The majority were women staying home to provide child care/remote schooling, a role that still falls disproportionately on them...plus, they're usually the lower earner.

Ah - so the number of people that left the workforce but didn’t file for unemployment gets removed from the denominator (e.g. to calculate unemployment 1 - (# people employed / (# people employed + # people looking for work)))?