O, the weather outside is...

[jztemple2]

The track has shifted a bit west during the day which should lessen the impact to Central Florida tomorrow. We had a rain band go through earlier and thanks to the excessive heat today (110+ heat index) it turned into a really strong line of thunderstorms.

[jztemple2]

With the west shift of the track the rain projections are also shifting as well:

[jztemple2]

The 11pm EDT update just came out. It shows Hurricane Idalia coming ashore just southeast of Tallahassee at 8am tomorrow with max sustained winds of 130 mph with gusts to 160 mph. That's borderline Category 4

[jztemple2]

As of 3am EDT (don't worry, I just woke up and am going back to bed)

[em2nought]

Probably couldn't find a better place to hit in Florida, unless you're one of the under 600 people living in Steinhatchee of course.

[jztemple2]

Radar as of right now. I'm just east of Cape Canaveral (the bump in the middle of the east coast of Florida, north of Palm Bay on the map) and we haven't gotten any real wind, but it has been and will be raining off and on for awhile. People in south Georgia are getting a lot wetter.

[jztemple2]

[jztemple2]

[YellowKing]

Had a bit of a scare just now with a tornado warning. Radar confirmed tornado less than half a mile from my house. Had the family, 2 cats, and a dog huddled in the half bath. Fortunately it fizzled out and never touched down.

[Jeff V]

Had a bit of a scare just now with a tornado warning. Radar confirmed tornado less than half a mile from my house. Had the family, 2 cats, and a dog huddled in the half bath. Fortunately it fizzled out and never touched down.

But no sharknados? My daughter really wants to see one, she watched all of the documentaries.

[jztemple2]

Had a bit of a scare just now with a tornado warning. Radar confirmed tornado less than half a mile from my house. Had the family, 2 cats, and a dog huddled in the half bath. Fortunately it fizzled out and never touched down.

Where is here? Georgia? South Carolina?

[Isgrimnur]

Had a bit of a scare just now with a tornado warning. Radar confirmed tornado less than half a mile from my house. Had the family, 2 cats, and a dog huddled in the half bath. Fortunately it fizzled out and never touched down.

Where is here? Georgia? South Carolina?

Where are you located?

I'm in Wilmington, so we were about 45 miles from landfall.

[jztemple2]

We were in Wilmington a few years ago. I'm imagining the beaches around Cape Fear got pretty beaten up.

[Kurth]

Report from my family in Jacksonville: "We've seen afternoon thunderstorms that were more impressive."

Sounds like the east coast of FL really avoided any substantial impacts, as the storm hit the Big Bend area and then headed north and east into GA and up the coast. Personally, I'm thankful for that track, as my kids were on a flight today from Portland to visit their grandparents and my sister's family in Jacksonville. They connected through Charlotte, NC, landing at about 8:00 PM and then in Jacksonville at 10:30 after a short layover. They said the flights were uneventful, and no significant weather impacts.

[jztemple2]

It's busy out there in the Atlantic, but it's that one orange area that has my attention right now.

[jztemple2]

Interesting video and text article, Seaport Canaveral meeting fuel demand for hurricane recovery

Fuel trucks are converging on Port Canaveral to bring much needed help to the Hurricane-ravaged Big Bend area.

And Thursday, with the port back open, there was an assembly line as the trucks are lining up at the pumps.

Seaport Canaveral can handle 600 trucks a day, with each spending just 17 minutes to become fully fueled.

“We’re the largest independent terminal in the state of Florida, not the largest market," said Seaport Canaveral General Manager David Smith. "We act almost like a strategic reserve for the storm."

Smith said 3 million barrels of fuel are held at the port, making it the ideal spot to turn to after hurricanes to help with the problems the Big Bend area is going through now.

Smith said due to the demand from the storm, the port saw 50 extra trucks come through Tuesday and 100 more Wednesday.

And Thursday, the rigs just kept lining up.

[Kraken]

This summer was our second-rainiest on record, surpassed only by 1955, when two hurricanes brushed the area within a week.

Last summer was the driest in 138 years.

Two summers ago we had the fourth-wettest ever. I'm sensing a pattern.

Climate change experts warn that extreme weather is becoming increasingly common. July was likely the planet’s warmest month on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Zachary Zobel, assistant scientist and risk associate director for the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Falmouth, said climate change is leading to more “boom or bust” precipitation patterns in the Northeast and most of the country.

“This means that dry periods tend to get longer and when precipitation occurs, it is occurring all at once in the form of extreme events,” Zobel said by email Thursday.

Auroop Ganguly, a Northeastern University professor and director of the Global Resilience Institute in Boston, said extreme shifts in weather are known among climate scientists as “drought-to-deluge” cycles and are expected to become more common as global temperatures rise.

[The Meal]

What ever happened to the Meal and his family?

Thanks for thinking of us, dbt. Idalia did a bit of stalling out over Cozumel, so our trip started with some not so vacationay weather, but nothing worse than big winds and wet skies. Things improved as the week has gone on, and the 17 of us are having a great time. One departs today and the rest of us leave tomorrow.

Internet is a hotspot through my phone, so OO is a bit of a rare treat. Hope you’ve found some positive news since we’ve been gone….

[jztemple2]

[em2nought]

That does not look good for somebody. The spaghetti models feel a bit more encouraging though.

[jztemple2]

I was reading a write-up on the storm, they note that it's the first time they identified a tropical storm that would intensify to a Cat 4 this early. Usually there is more uncertainty, but the Atlantic out there is very warm and there are almost no conditions that will interfere with the intensification.

[Unagi]

I was reading a write-up on the storm, they note that it's the first time they identified a tropical storm that would intensify to a Cat 4 this early. Usually there is more uncertainty, but the Atlantic out there is very warm and there are almost no conditions that will interfere with the intensification.

That's probably a trend that will continue. Frightening.

[jztemple2]

[Unagi]

Apparently, most of the spaghetti seems to be keeping Lee in the Atlantic.

[Kraken]

Apparently, most of the spaghetti seems to be keeping Lee in the Atlantic.

According to a forecast that I watched last night, if a high pressure trough steers the jet stream as expected we'll be fine; it will deflect Lee out to sea. If that trough is weaker than expected or stays farther west than expected, Lee could make landfall toward the end of next week anywhere between the Carolinas and Nova Scotia. But I hope that was just a meteorologist looking for drama.

[Jeff V]

Apparently, most of the spaghetti seems to be keeping Lee in the Atlantic.

According to a forecast that I watched last night, if a high pressure trough steers the jet stream as expected we'll be fine; it will deflect Lee out to sea. If that trough is weaker than expected or stays farther west than expected, Lee could make landfall toward the end of next week anywhere between the Carolinas and Nova Scotia. But I hope that was just a meteorologist looking for drama.

It seemed likely to piss all over Bermuda from the projections I saw this morning.

This weekend is the kid's birthday party. 10 days ago, I ordered a bounce house for the party and since the early forecast was 85, I got one with a splash pool. They were both born on 95 degree days. Their parties since have been 60's and 70's. Current forecast is low-70s, going to need to have the firepit going all day I think.

[Kraken]

We're doing our annual apple-picking/winery expedition this Saturday. The forecast is looking a little rainier than it was when we committed. Today Wife asked if we should postpone to next weekend. Uh, there's a small chance of hurricanes then, so let's go with the scattered thunderstorms. I reserved a hightop under the roofed patio at the winery, so unless the weather turns violent we WILL drink wine.

[Daehawk]

What a strange weather tonight. Nothing at all in the forecast about rain when the weather was on an hour ago. The current live map shows nothing at all. The 7 days said nothing. Yet open the door and its coming down in buckets.

[Kraken]

We're doing our annual apple-picking/winery expedition this Saturday. The forecast is looking a little rainier than it was when we committed. Today Wife asked if we should postpone to next weekend. Uh, there's a small chance of hurricanes then, so let's go with the scattered thunderstorms. I reserved a hightop under the roofed patio at the winery, so unless the weather turns violent we WILL drink wine.

The area we're going to tomorrow got clobbered tonight. Lots of trees down and power out. Tomorrow's forecast has a chance of more of the same. The storms usually develop around sunset, and we will be done before then. Even if the rain holds off for the early afternoon apple-picking (which only takes half an hour) we have a table under a roof at the winery, so we can handle some rain later on if it doesn't bring an attitude.

We've been doing the apples/winery routine for 25+ years and only gotten rained out once. Pray that it won't become twice tomorrow.

[Pyperkub]

Watching some of the college football games from San Diego yesterday(road trip), it seemed like the Atlantic coast was absolutely drenched with bonus lightning and thunder yesterday.

Sent from my SM-S908U1 using Tapatalk

[jztemple2]

[jztemple2]

[Kraken]

I'm several miles from the coast and 100+ feet above sea level so no worries there, but the ground is saturated from all the rain we keep getting; if Lee dumps several inches more, things could get challenging. In the 34 years we've lived in this house, our cellar has flooded twice (and taken on less water a few more times). Once the water table gets high enough, it seeps in through any crack it can find. I've sealed the cracks that betrayed us in the past, but a 108-year-old foundation is going to make more if it starts to float.

Last I heard, Lee had jogged a bit to the east, which is good. If it wanders west and/or stalls between now and tomorrow night, it could be trouble.

[Kraken]

Lee is turning into a non-event here. It's kind of breezy and there's a 25% chance of rain overnight. While I would have enjoyed a little low-level drama, this is not a complaint.

[jztemple2]

Something interesting off the east coast of Florida. Folks further north may want to keep an eye on this

[jztemple2]

That feature is turning into a potential tropic storm which will make it nasty on the Carolina coasts in a couple of days.

[Daehawk]

.....peachy perfect. low 80s for highs low 60s for lows..no humidity really. Its nice. I gotta mow this weekend though it seems before the rain.

[jztemple2]

[em2nought]

Not a very good hurricane year so far for climate alarmists. Still two months left though.

[Smoove_B]

Stay safe NYC area OOers