Octopus Overlords

rshetts2 wrote: You can pass the ring at any time with a PM so my question here is, if Frodo is passed the ring during chapter 7 can he pass it along or does that finalize the win for the Servants.

There is only one action during Chapter 7, and that is a single Pass of the Ring.

Did I miss something:

Frodo
Starts with the One Ring. Immune to corruption. If Frodo controls the Ring at the start of the 7th Chapter, he must immediately pass it on to another (uncorrupted) Hobbit or to Gollum. Failure to do so causes the Servants of the Eye to win. Frodo is the only Hobbit that may re-possess the One Ring without succumbing to darkness.

So if we free Mr. Bubbles, who we all think = Frodo, then we can not pass the ring to him, as this would mean that the servants automatically win, right?

Or am I on the wrong chapter?? Am I missing the order of when/what happens? We are finishing Chapter 6, so if we free him he would be free at the start of Chapter 7, which does not do us any good, as he has to get rid of the ring then, right?

Maybe I am missing something, which I most likely am. But please use small words and help me out here.

Newcastle wrote:

rshetts2 wrote:Interesting that the two people still voting "Hunt some orc" are Newcastle and Triggercut.

because hunting some orc and freeing bubbles opens up more avenues for a ring toss...i dont think scouting someone will yield the best results...what if we miss? then a ring toss is gonna happen somewhere between truicy & grund. Those are some stellar odds if you are evil (usiing evil here to include gollum). Freeing bubbles gives another avenue for them to toss the ring...hence the better play. IF we hit one...great....but they still get to strike back tonight...

If we had more misses and more margin for error; i'd be more interested in testing a few people...but since this is our last day......just a better play than a hail mary which could potentially net us 1 evil but not both. I'll take my bird in hand over 2 in the bush please.

Unless Im missing something, the turn ends once we choose whether to hunt or scout. We cant toss Frodo the ring during this phase and we cant toss Frodo the ring during the final phase or we lose. There is absolutely no benefit in freeing him, only another chance for evil to win. So it is far better to try to eliminate either a servant or Gollum than it is to free Frodo who cant receive the ring anyways. Unless you are evil and trying to convince us otherwise, I see no logic in your argument.

We are here - Chapter 6: Minas Tirith

Tonight - Journey 7: The Black Gate of Mordor (last chance for evil to strike....and a ring toss will happen)

Tomorrow - Chapter 7: The Cracks of Doom (frodo has to toss at the start here, no later)

We still have a night cycle to get through....where evil has a last chance to nail the ring....we know and by default evil knows...that grund or truicy has the ring right now......its most likely going to get passed between them.....those are pretty good odds for evil to waylay the ring....

Now- if bubbles were out...that gives an additional option of where we can toss the ring...it also helps muddy the waters a bit more for evil...

Bubbles enhances our chances to moving the ring sucessfully; keeping bubbles locked up decreases our chances of moving the ring and increases teh chances of evil waylaying the ring....

If Frodo controls the Ring at the start of the 7th Chapter, he must immediately pass it on to another (uncorrupted) Hobbit or to Gollum. Failure to do so causes the Servants of the Eye to win. Frodo is the only Hobbit that may re-possess the One Ring without succumbing to darkness.

i read teh above that he can receive the ring on journey 7; BUT art teh start of chapter 7 (not sure where in order of operations) he has to toss it...the critical thing is he can carry it during journey 7.

hence, why i think its more improtant we free him than taking a swing and missing..........f

Newcastle wrote:

If Frodo controls the Ring at the start of the 7th Chapter, he must immediately pass it on to another (uncorrupted) Hobbit or to Gollum. Failure to do so causes the Servants of the Eye to win. Frodo is the only Hobbit that may re-possess the One Ring without succumbing to darkness.

i read teh above that he can receive the ring on journey 7; BUT art teh start of chapter 7 (not sure where in order of operations) he has to toss it...the critical thing is he can carry it during journey 7.

hence, why i think its more improtant we free him than taking a swing and missing..........f

Well if this is the case, then the only option we have is to hunt orcs.

RMC wrote:Did I miss something:

Frodo
Starts with the One Ring. Immune to corruption. If Frodo controls the Ring at the start of the 7th Chapter, he must immediately pass it on to another (uncorrupted) Hobbit or to Gollum. Failure to do so causes the Servants of the Eye to win. Frodo is the only Hobbit that may re-possess the One Ring without succumbing to darkness.

So if we free Mr. Bubbles, who we all think = Frodo, then we can not pass the ring to him, as this would mean that the servants automatically win, right?

Or am I on the wrong chapter?? Am I missing the order of when/what happens? We are finishing Chapter 6, so if we free him he would be free at the start of Chapter 7, which does not do us any good, as he has to get rid of the ring then, right?

Maybe I am missing something, which I most likely am. But please use small words and help me out here.

Sorry, it's an old phrasing that collided with a new. I changed the rule to include all Hobbits (not just Frodo), but I neglected to change the role description for Frodo to reflect this properly.

The rule for Chapter 7 is merely this: Any Fellowship Ringbearer must pass the Ring to an uncorrupted Hobbit, Gollum or Frodo in order to win the game.

Basically, you gotta toss it when at the Cracks!

Lagom Lite wrote:

RMC wrote:Did I miss something:

Frodo
Starts with the One Ring. Immune to corruption. If Frodo controls the Ring at the start of the 7th Chapter, he must immediately pass it on to another (uncorrupted) Hobbit or to Gollum. Failure to do so causes the Servants of the Eye to win. Frodo is the only Hobbit that may re-possess the One Ring without succumbing to darkness.

So if we free Mr. Bubbles, who we all think = Frodo, then we can not pass the ring to him, as this would mean that the servants automatically win, right?

Or am I on the wrong chapter?? Am I missing the order of when/what happens? We are finishing Chapter 6, so if we free him he would be free at the start of Chapter 7, which does not do us any good, as he has to get rid of the ring then, right?

Maybe I am missing something, which I most likely am. But please use small words and help me out here.

Sorry, it's an old phrasing that collided with a new. I changed the rule to include all Hobbits (not just Frodo), but I neglected to change the role description for Frodo to reflect this properly.

The rule for Chapter 7 is merely this: Any Fellowship Ringbearer must pass the Ring to an uncorrupted Hobbit, Gollum or Frodo in order to win the game.

That's a pretty major rule change.

Newcastle wrote:Tomorrow - Chapter 7: The Cracks of Doom (frodo has to toss at the start here, no later)

The Ringbearer has to toss, not necessarily Frodo, right?

Reading the rules I am confusing myself on the endgame. The rules are either contradictory or incomplete.

If Frodo controls the Ring at the start of the 7th Chapter, he must immediately pass it on to another (uncorrupted) Hobbit or to Gollum. Failure to do so causes the Servants of the Eye to win.

3 Hobbits
They may never possess the Ring again or they will be instantly corrupted, with one exception: if they are passed the Ring in Chapter 7, they will not be corrupted. Instead, they will win the game with the Fellowship.

The Fellowship wins if:
At the start of the 7th Chapter: The Ringbearer must pass the Ring to another, uncorrupted Hobbit (even if this Hobbit has previously held the Ring) or to Gollum for the Fellowship to destroy the Ring and win. Any other action results in a win for the Servants of the Eye. The targeted Hobbit is not corrupted even if he has held the Ring before, and will win the game with the Fellowship.

Thelast quote is from the victory conditions and makes it sound like at the start of Chapter 7 anyone who is holding the ring (ringbearer) can pass it to any other hobbit/gollum and the good guys win. What confuses me is Frodo's descriptions clearly states if he holds the ring when C7 starts he must pass it or we lose. The same language is not included in the hobbit description.

Does this mean Frodo has to hold the ring and be free as day turns to night or we are screwed? Can Pippin pass the ring to Frodo at the start of C7 for the win? Pippin to someone else?

Ansd Lagom clears it up while I am laboring over my post.

triggercut wrote:

Lagom Lite wrote:

RMC wrote:Did I miss something:

Frodo
Starts with the One Ring. Immune to corruption. If Frodo controls the Ring at the start of the 7th Chapter, he must immediately pass it on to another (uncorrupted) Hobbit or to Gollum. Failure to do so causes the Servants of the Eye to win. Frodo is the only Hobbit that may re-possess the One Ring without succumbing to darkness.

So if we free Mr. Bubbles, who we all think = Frodo, then we can not pass the ring to him, as this would mean that the servants automatically win, right?

Or am I on the wrong chapter?? Am I missing the order of when/what happens? We are finishing Chapter 6, so if we free him he would be free at the start of Chapter 7, which does not do us any good, as he has to get rid of the ring then, right?

Maybe I am missing something, which I most likely am. But please use small words and help me out here.

Sorry, it's an old phrasing that collided with a new. I changed the rule to include all Hobbits (not just Frodo), but I neglected to change the role description for Frodo to reflect this properly.

The rule for Chapter 7 is merely this: Any Fellowship Ringbearer must pass the Ring to an uncorrupted Hobbit, Gollum or Frodo in order to win the game.

That's a pretty major rule change.

It's not a mid-game rules change. It's been inscribed into the changelog from the start.

Cool that does change things then. I was looking at Frodo as separate from the other hobbits and thought by his role description he couldnt be passed the ring on the final chapter. If he can receive the ring from another hobbit safely then perhaps freeing him is our best option. Still need to think this over though. We have plenty of time.

rshetts2 wrote:Cool that does change things then. I was looking at Frodo as separate from the other hobbits and thought by his role description he couldnt be passed the ring on the final chapter. If he can receive the ring from another hobbit safely then perhaps freeing him is our best option. Still need to think this over though. We have plenty of time.

You and me and apparently others in this game. Oh well.

Lagom Lite wrote:

triggercut wrote:

Lagom Lite wrote:

RMC wrote:Did I miss something:

Frodo
Starts with the One Ring. Immune to corruption. If Frodo controls the Ring at the start of the 7th Chapter, he must immediately pass it on to another (uncorrupted) Hobbit or to Gollum. Failure to do so causes the Servants of the Eye to win. Frodo is the only Hobbit that may re-possess the One Ring without succumbing to darkness.

So if we free Mr. Bubbles, who we all think = Frodo, then we can not pass the ring to him, as this would mean that the servants automatically win, right?

Or am I on the wrong chapter?? Am I missing the order of when/what happens? We are finishing Chapter 6, so if we free him he would be free at the start of Chapter 7, which does not do us any good, as he has to get rid of the ring then, right?

Maybe I am missing something, which I most likely am. But please use small words and help me out here.

Sorry, it's an old phrasing that collided with a new. I changed the rule to include all Hobbits (not just Frodo), but I neglected to change the role description for Frodo to reflect this properly.

The rule for Chapter 7 is merely this: Any Fellowship Ringbearer must pass the Ring to an uncorrupted Hobbit, Gollum or Frodo in order to win the game.

That's a pretty major rule change.

It's not a mid-game rules change. It's been inscribed into the changelog from the start.

Probably needed to be changed in the first post of the thread, too. I--and at least 3 others--missed it completely, and it definitely affected things along the way, without being too spoilery.

Grundbegriff wrote:

redrun wrote:This last bit assumes we hunt orc today. If we scout Gollum today, it's a 1/3 shot for Evil to capture the ringbearer, but no Gollum to worry about.

The cost of this plan would be leaving bb2112 in captivity. He'd be unavailable to catch on the final morning.

What's interesting is that this probably doesn't matter. The hobbit who possesses the Ring on that morning will still have two others hobbits to act as recipient.

Please note, now that that's cleared up, that my remarks followed the correct interpretation of the new rule. However, I did say 'bb' instead of 'Bubbles'; too many Bs!

My point, which stands, is that freeing Frodo gives us another Hobbit, but that leaving him captive and trying to kill an enemy has a huge effect on our odds of success. Meanwhile, what's the cost of leaving Frodo captive? Not much: Sam, Merry, and Pippin (whether they've borne the Ring or not) are all eligible to receive it and secure victory on the final day. The only benefit is to have one more potential Ringbearer in play tonight, to lessen the chances of a capture or theft: 33% instead of 50%.

coopasonic wrote:Reading the rules I am confusing myself on the endgame. The rules are either contradictory or incomplete.

If Frodo controls the Ring at the start of the 7th Chapter, he must immediately pass it on to another (uncorrupted) Hobbit or to Gollum. Failure to do so causes the Servants of the Eye to win.

3 Hobbits
They may never possess the Ring again or they will be instantly corrupted, with one exception: if they are passed the Ring in Chapter 7, they will not be corrupted. Instead, they will win the game with the Fellowship.

The Fellowship wins if:
At the start of the 7th Chapter: The Ringbearer must pass the Ring to another, uncorrupted Hobbit (even if this Hobbit has previously held the Ring) or to Gollum for the Fellowship to destroy the Ring and win. Any other action results in a win for the Servants of the Eye. The targeted Hobbit is not corrupted even if he has held the Ring before, and will win the game with the Fellowship.

The last quote is from the victory conditions and makes it sound like at the start of Chapter 7 anyone who is holding the ring (ringbearer) can pass it to any other hobbit/gollum and the good guys win. What confuses me is Frodo's descriptions clearly states if he holds the ring when C7 starts he must pass it or we lose. The same language is not included in the hobbit description.

To be fair to poor Lagom, this trio is neither contradictory nor incomplete. Instead, it contains excess info. There's no contradiction between
(a) At the top of the 7th Chapter, the Ringbearer must pass to another uncorrupted or to Gollum
and
(b) At the top of the 7th Chapter, Frodo must pass to another uncorrupted or to Gollum

Rather, case (b) is an instance or example or illustration or case (a).

The root of the confusion is twofold: first, leaving (a) in there made it seem as if (a) was an additional point rather than a specific instance of the new, general point; and second, people tend to think of "the Ringbearer" as Frodo rather than as "whoever's currently holding the Ring".

Grundbegriff wrote:

coopasonic wrote:Reading the rules I am confusing myself on the endgame. The rules are either contradictory or incomplete.

If Frodo controls the Ring at the start of the 7th Chapter, he must immediately pass it on to another (uncorrupted) Hobbit or to Gollum. Failure to do so causes the Servants of the Eye to win.

3 Hobbits
They may never possess the Ring again or they will be instantly corrupted, with one exception: if they are passed the Ring in Chapter 7, they will not be corrupted. Instead, they will win the game with the Fellowship.

The Fellowship wins if:
At the start of the 7th Chapter: The Ringbearer must pass the Ring to another, uncorrupted Hobbit (even if this Hobbit has previously held the Ring) or to Gollum for the Fellowship to destroy the Ring and win. Any other action results in a win for the Servants of the Eye. The targeted Hobbit is not corrupted even if he has held the Ring before, and will win the game with the Fellowship.

The last quote is from the victory conditions and makes it sound like at the start of Chapter 7 anyone who is holding the ring (ringbearer) can pass it to any other hobbit/gollum and the good guys win. What confuses me is Frodo's descriptions clearly states if he holds the ring when C7 starts he must pass it or we lose. The same language is not included in the hobbit description.

To be fair to poor Lagom, this trio is neither contradictory nor incomplete. Instead, it contains excess info. There's no contradiction between
(a) At the top of the 7th Chapter, the Ringbearer must pass to another uncorrupted or to Gollum
and
(b) At the top of the 7th Chapter, Frodo must pass to another uncorrupted or to Gollum

Rather, case (b) is an instance or example or illustration or case (a).

The root of the confusion is twofold: first, leaving (a) in there made it seem as if (a) was an additional point rather than a specific instance of the new, general point; and second, people tend to think of "the Ringbearer" as Frodo rather than as "whoever's currently holding the Ring".

Frodo being named separate from the "3 Hobbits" and the rule where he must pass the ring if he controls it at the start of the final phase is what confused me. Upon further review, it never states that Frodo can not hold the ring in Chapter 7, only that he must pass it if he is the ringbearer at the start of the chapter. The wording led to an assumption that Frodo could not hold the ring at the end at all, quite possibly due to the actual story events in LOTR. Anyway, LL stated the rules as they are and any misconception was on my part, which is why of course I asked for clarification. The rules havent changed, just my understanding of them.

rshetts2 wrote:Anyway, LL stated the rules as they are and any misconception was on my part, which is why of course I asked for clarification. The rules havent changed, just my understanding of them.

I do sort of feel sorry for Team Evil if it made a diff to them... but not much.

Grundbegriff wrote: My point, which stands, is that freeing Frodo gives us another Hobbit, but that leaving him captive and trying to kill an enemy has a huge effect on our odds of success. Meanwhile, what's the cost of leaving Frodo captive? Not much: Sam, Merry, and Pippin (whether they've borne the Ring or not) are all eligible to receive it and secure victory on the final day. The only benefit is to have one more potential Ringbearer in play tonight, to lessen the chances of a capture or theft: 33% instead of 50%.

If we scout and don't send out Gollum or the last member of team evil, tonight Gollum has a 50/50 shot of grabbing the ring, and tonight team evil has a 50/50 shot of capturing the ringbearer - between the two, it is a 75% chance of team good losing.

If we scout Gollum or the last team evil member, it's a 50% chance of team good losing.

If we free Frodo, than (Gollum/team evil) will have a 33% chance each, for an overall odd of 5/9's. About a 55% chance of team good losing.

How sure are folks about who is (Gollum or team evil)?

The last day doesn't matter - if team good holds the ring at the start of the day we win. Scouting or hunting orc today is only important for what happens during the night tonight.

So what are we waiting for? Are we lynching? Without getting all statistical a random lynch would give us a 40% change of reducing evils chance to screw us by 25%. A 10% final reduction in risk, I think. Hunting some orc gives evil more to think about and the ring more options to hide tonight. The math of that makes my head hurt but I think it's better odds for us. The caveat is, we ought to be able to have a much better than 40% chance at hitting evil/gollum because it isn't really random.

OK redrun is better at statistics than I am, I got the lynch numbers right, but the hunt some orc numbers are lower than I thought. I think we'd need a pretty high degree of certainty to go the lynch route.

Perhaps if most of us see the same people as the lynch targets we could go for it.

I have no idea on last team evil or Gollum

tru1cy wrote:I have no idea on last team evil or Gollum

I still think Triggercut is team evil. I vary between two players for which is Gollum. I haven't seen anything that is a sure tell for either team evil, so I'm prefering to hunt orc this turn.

For the record I'll say Newcastle is one or the other but my confidence is not high enough to bank on it.

Im not as worried about evil as I am about Gollum. Evils odds are greatly reduced with a block in play, Gollums are not. Regarding scouting, there is only 1 servant left, so if we scout evil successfully, they are eliminated from the equation. Gollum presents the greater threat. The problem is, he has to attempt his steal before chapter 7 because LL has stated that passing the ring is the only action in chapter 7.
If Gollum steals and then we scout him, we still have a shot at getting the ring but it also can go to anyone including me. That would turn any free person corrupt and we would be screwed. So if Gollum does have the ring scouting him is a risk. If he missed stealing the ring scouting him is moot. With this in mind, is it even worth trying to scout Gollum or are we better off freeing Frodo for the extra numbers?

rshetts2 wrote:
If Gollum steals and then we scout him,

That's not possible. Gollum doesn't have the ring now and can't steal it until night, after our final lynch attempt today. We would be lynching gollum to prevent the possibility of the steal. We would be lynching the last evil to prevent the possibility of the capture of the ringbearer. If Gollum still has the steal, they have the exact same chance of taking the win from us.

coopasonic wrote:

rshetts2 wrote:
If Gollum steals and then we scout him,

That's not possible. Gollum doesn't have the ring now and can't steal it until night, after our final lynch attempt today. We would be lynching gollum to prevent the possibility of the steal. We would be lynching the last evil to prevent the possibility of the capture of the ringbearer. If Gollum still has the steal, they have the exact same chance of taking the win from us.

Ah, I read the Gollum rules and it didnt say it was a Journey power just that he could steal as a one time power, It wasnt specified as a journey decision until further down in the game rules.
So we can scout Gollum safely because theres no way he can possess the ring at this time.

Still with the block in play, the Servants have less of a chance than Gollum who cannot be blocked. So Gollum is still the greater threat. We just need to decide if we should improve our odds by freeing Frodo or take a random shot at improving our odds through scouting. Its a risk/reward thing. Theres the risk of missing on scouting but if we hit, the rewards are far greater than freeing Frodo would give us.

redrun wrote:If we scout and don't send out Gollum or the last member of team evil, tonight Gollum has a 50/50 shot of grabbing the ring, and tonight team evil has a 50/50 shot of capturing the ringbearer - between the two, it is a 75% chance of team good losing.

If we scout Gollum or the last team evil member, it's a 50% chance of team good losing.

If we free Frodo, than (Gollum/team evil) will have a 33% chance each, for an overall odd of 5/9's. About a 55% chance of team good losing.

It was my understanding that there would be no math.

Despite strong suspicions, we don't actually know who's Evil and who's Gollum. So the risk of harming our odds instead of helping them is too great.

 Hunt Some Orc 
 

Let loose the... ummm... hobbits of war!

 Hunt some orcs 
 

 Hunt Some Orc 
 

 hunt some orc 
 

Hunt Some Orc (5) - rshetts2, Grundbegriff, triggercut, tru1cy, Newcastle, Grundbegriff, coopasonic, tru1cy

n-1


Majority is 6

Deadline is Sunday, October 30th at 9 p.m. Central European Time (GMT +1)

 Hunt some orc 
 

Grundbegriff wrote: It was my understanding that there would be no math.

redrun wrote:

Grundbegriff wrote: It was my understanding that there would be no math.

It's a joke see...

theohall wrote:

Have we saved the world for good? Will we wish we'd never heard of the ring?

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.

IN! Wait, what? Oh.

Hunt Some Orc (6) - rshetts2, Grundbegriff, triggercut, tru1cy, Newcastle, Grundbegriff, coopasonic, tru1cy, RMC

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