Ukraine

[Unagi]

I wonder when manned aircraft are going to (mostly) be a thing of the past and drones become the vast majority of the air force's strength. They have been shown to be massively effective in this war, and I don't think drone technology has even got close to what it could be. I suppose that telemetry will always be the weak point, and they will always need a manned airforce...

But I picture something like those unbelievable RC Helicopter aerobatics being applied to an armed drone in the near future.

[Blackhawk]

But I picture something like those unbelievable RC Helicopter aerobatics being applied to an armed drone in the near future.

Are you sure that isn't a remote control dragonfly? That's what it reminds me the most of.

[Kasey Chang]

You have to remember AAA are basically giant shotguns and those acrobatics don't work when you're against something designed to take down actual planes moving much faster.

In fact, anti-drone is probably going to be done by automated anti-drone guns firing old-fashioned VT-fused shells. That's going to be CHEAP.

If you want even FASTER response, there's the Iron Beam... basically lasers.

[Unagi]

I don’t follow.
Why would “tomorrow’s drone” be necessarily slower than today’s manned jets? Or even tomorrow’s manned jets.
The (physically) weakest and most limiting component of a military jet is the man flying it.

[LawBeefaroni]

The big draw of drones is thst they're cheap . If you can send them in at a ratio of 100:1 vs sendng a manned aircraft it will overwhelm AAA.

[Unagi]

That’s also very valid.
My main point was about G-force limits of human pilots and the incredible maneuverability we can now achieve in RC aircraft.

That, to my knowledge, has yet to be leveraged in our current use of drone warfare.

[Unagi]

In my imagination, I picture a small group of elite high speed drones armed with just guns, entering an infantry camp and just going around sniping people almost undetected/chaos enduring - as the sniper could be anywhere. And everywhere.
I picture them being piloted by AI not telemetry.

[Blackhawk]

In my imagination, I picture a small group of elite high speed drones armed with just guns, entering an infantry camp and just going around sniping people almost undetected/chaos enduring - as the sniper could be anywhere. And everywhere.
I picture them being piloted by AI not telemetry.

Do it low enough, and any counter-fire will just hit friendlies.

/edit - although while a camp isn't impossible, I think the real use would be in breaking up enemy offensive/defensive lines.

[Unagi]

/edit - although while a camp isn't impossible, I think the real use would be in breaking up enemy offensive/defensive lines.

Yeah, I didn't really mean to imply a big permanent base/camp - so much as any enemy position (offensive/defensive lines), anywhere they slept at night and had set up camp.

[Blackhawk]

That, too.

I was thinking more of it being used during an active engagement with dug-in troops. Suddenly a half a dozen airborne attackers start zipping up and down behind the enemy fortifications just as a push begins...

[Kraken]

The big draw of drones is thst they're cheap . If you can send them in at a ratio of 100:1 vs sendng a manned aircraft it will overwhelm AAA.

Depends on what kind of drones. I read yesterday that:

The Ukrainians had great early success with their Bayraktars. Those are small remotely piloted, long-distance aircraft with attachment points for several small missiles. They were effective because the Russians outran their supply lines and didn't have air superiority. Once they pulled back and consolidated after their initial invasion failed, they started shooting down the Bayraktars and eliminated about 1/3 of Ukraine's fleet, so the remainder were relegated to behind-the-lines surveillance and support tasks. Ukraine pivoted instead to cheap, short-range, one-use suicide drones.

Now that they're breaking some of Russia's defenses and taking out AA platforms again, the replenished Bayraktars are going back into action.

Cost of a Bayraktar: $1 million. Cost of a disposable suicide drone: as little as $5,000.

Now, a single Bayraktar is a lot cheaper than a jet fighter, but you can't afford to send them in overwhelming numbers. Their fleet only numbers about 70 at full strength.

[Unagi]

That, too.

I was thinking more of it being used during an active engagement with dug-in troops. Suddenly a half a dozen airborne attackers start zipping up and down behind the enemy fortifications just as a push begins...

Brilliant.

I guess my only original concern with that front-line scenario would be the sophistication of the AI in charge of targeting, as I imagine the first few generations of this would be piss poor at IFF.

[Max Peck]

Huh. Looks like Screamers is available on Prime Video. Nice.

[Blackhawk]

That, too.

I was thinking more of it being used during an active engagement with dug-in troops. Suddenly a half a dozen airborne attackers start zipping up and down behind the enemy fortifications just as a push begins...

Brilliant.

I guess my only original concern with that front-line scenario would be the sophistication of the AI in charge of targeting, as I imagine the first few generations of this would be piss poor at IFF.

I wouldn't be AI. Not for a while. It wasn't that long ago that AI in drones created a lot of controversy, and right now (I believe) that all targets are required to be confirmed by a human operator.

[Unagi]

I could see a human involved in piloting the drone on approach, but once it’s in place - every target would be “pre-approved” and there would be no IFF at all.

[stessier]

I could see a human involved in piloting the drone on approach, but once it’s in place - every target would be “pre-approved” and there would be no IFF at all.

Human shields would become even more of a thing than they already are.

[Unagi]

Admittedly, my mind is just going down a possible path of our dystopian future.

[Max Peck]

I wouldn't be AI. Not for a while. It wasn't that long ago that AI in drones created a lot of controversy, and right now (I believe) that all targets are required to be confirmed by a human operator.

That's current American policy, which doesn't govern other nations or non-state entities, and which will never be more than one election cycle away from nullification.

[Blackhawk]

I could see a human involved in piloting the drone on approach, but once it’s in place - every target would be “pre-approved” and there would be no IFF at all.

Human shields would become even more of a thing than they already are.

Absolutely that. And you'd start seeing tons and tons of medics with visible insignia (so that targeting them would be a war crime.)

[waitingtoconnect]

Bear in mind decent electronic jamming could wipe out these drones. The Russians are proving quite good at jamming Ukrainian drones.

Drones are incredibly easy to make though these days. There are now Australian made cardboard drones.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine ... ard-2023-8

[Unagi]

Bear in mind decent electronic jamming could wipe out these drones. The Russians are proving quite good at jamming Ukrainian drones.

Drones are incredibly easy to make though these days. There are now Australian made cardboard drones.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine ... ard-2023-8

Aren’t they just jamming the telemetry/remote signal?

Anything (else) that could entirely knock out a drone would also work on a manned aircraft.

[malchior]

The more important thing is that generally jamming the enemy also often means your own operations are limited.

[pr0ner]

Nice work, Elon.

[Max Peck]

I'm pretty sure that there was chatter about Musk doing that when it happened, and that he publicly talked about not wanting Starlink to be used for military purposes such as drones. Still, it's interesting to know that's specifically why at least one Ukrainian surface drone just sort of washed up on the beach somewhere. IIRC, the first reporting on the drones was when that happened and included photos of a drone that ended up on shore.

[GreenGoo]

If I concede that this is within his purview and agree that corps have the right to do this sort of thing, there are better ways than to pull the rug out from under a country being invaded.

There are ethical and humanitarian issues that should be addressed during this decision.

But of course those words are beyond Elon's vocabulary, so fuck it. Yank it, just because we can.

[Max Peck]

IIRC, around the same time that this happened, there was also reporting that Musk had been in touch with Putin and then parroting Russian talking points about the war.

[GreenGoo]

IIRC, around the same time that this happened, there was also reporting that Musk had been in touch with Putin and then parroting Russian talking points about the war.

Yes, that of course is the correct answer. The idea that he has scruples is funny.

[Max Peck]

https://nitter.net/olliecarroll/status/ ... 34305008#m

Eyebrow raising “exclusive” from CNN about Elon Musk turning off Starlink to stop attack on Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol. For more details, see my own story.

From six months ago.

[Holman]

Old news or not, it's astonishing that this hasn't already erupted into congressional hearings.

Starlink is a US military contractor. That Musk has this kind of operational control over it is as absurd as the CEO of Lockheed Martin deciding to remotely brick Javelin antitank missiles because he has decided he is fond of Putin.

Meanwhile, the attacks Musk thwarted saved the remaining Russian Black Sea Fleet, which is itself a significant platform for launching cruise missiles at civilian urban centers in Ukraine.

[waitingtoconnect]

I'm pretty sure that there was chatter about Musk doing that when it happened, and that he publicly talked about not wanting Starlink to be used for military purposes such as drones. Still, it's interesting to know that's specifically why at least one Ukrainian surface drone just sort of washed up on the beach somewhere. IIRC, the first reporting on the drones was when that happened and included photos of a drone that ended up on shore.

If he’s giving star link to the pentagon to give to Ukraine for military reasons then he’s breaching his contract.

If Ukraine or any nation regardless of status is using the civilian version of starlink for military means then I’d be concerned as well in fairness at the ethical implications.

And as a starlink customer the Ukraine army would have to be concerned that Elon can see and decrypt their traffic.

[Blackhawk]

And as a starlink customer the Ukraine army would have to be concerned that Elon can see and decrypt their traffic.

No kidding. They last thing they need now is personalized ads!

[Zaxxon]

Mainly for the clarification from Isaacson, but it is also worth noting that Starlink and Starshield are distinct.

[malchior]

That doesn't change much for me. Musk is still making national security/political decisions with no accountability with our license. The trip point for me is that he could have said it was never live there and we didn't activate it. Finito. No real controversy.

The problem becomes when he then goes on to say they made a decision based on a political calculus he isn't equipped for or temperamentally suited for.

[Max Peck]

Striking a surface vessel, a submarine and dry dock facilities in Sevastopol all at once is a good night's work.

https://nitter.net/BlackSky_Inc/status/1701994911887679598#m

Flames engulfed the #Sevastopol Shipyard in #Russia occupied #Crimea after a fiery, late-night Ukrainian cruise missile attack. This is the largest attack on Sevastopol’s naval headquarters, according to the @nytimes.

[GreenGoo]

I can't get over how well Ukraine is doing. I, like many other uninformed people, assumed Russia would steamroll them in a matter of weeks at most.

You go Ukraine. We are amazed. Well, I am.

[Grifman]

I can't get over how well Ukraine is doing. I, like many other uninformed people, assumed Russia would steamroll them in a matter of weeks at most.

You go Ukraine. We are amazed. Well, I am.

I think most of us were surprised. That said, not to take anything away from Ukraine, but I also think we’re surprised not only by Ukraine, but also by Russia’s overall incompetence.

[Blackhawk]

I think we never let go of the cold war mental image of the Soviet Union as our equal rival, and just kept applying it to Russia, while at the same time buying into their propaganda. Meanwhile, it looks like Russia spent all those decades in decline, letting what they had (did they ever have it?) sink into decay.

It's also relevant that this wasn't just a straight Ukraine-Russia matchup. Russia's actions resulted in them isolating themselves, while at the same time Ukraine gained worldwide support. This was a limited version of Russia vs NATO.

The thing is, once this is done (regardless of how it plays out), Russia will have lost their global clout as a 'power.' All they'll have left is the threat of nuclear weapons. I'm not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing.

[Unagi]

I think we never let go of the cold war mental image of the Soviet Union as our equal rival, and just kept applying it to Russia

I think that's right. And more so, I think we always feared they were perhaps even more powerful rivals, with fewer rules/morals to hold them back.

All they'll have left is the threat of nuclear weapons. I'm not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing.

Extra worrying as Putin saddled up close with Kim John Un today.

[Alefroth]

Russia having to resort to North Korea for arms and perhaps recruits says it all.

[Isgrimnur]

We are lucky that they are so fucking stupid.