Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Smoove_B]

So mycoplasma doesn't actually have anything to do with mushrooms. It sounded like a pretty horrible affliction.

No - more like the best guess as to what it was when first discovered:

The term "mycoplasma", from the Greek μύκης, mykes (fungus) and πλάσμα, plasma (formed), was first used by Albert Bernhard Frank in 1889 to describe an altered state of plant cell cytoplasm resulting from infiltration by fungus-like microorganisms. Julian Nowak later proposed the name mycoplasma for certain filamentous microorganisms imagined to have both cellular and acellular stages in their lifecycles, which could explain how they were visible with a microscope, but passed through filters impermeable to other bacteria.

[Alefroth]

I mean it still sounds like a bad affliction, but not mushrooms in your lungs bad.

[Smoove_B]

Oh sorry. No, that is something else entirely. Wouldn't recommend doing a GIS either.

[Alefroth]

Advice taken =)

[Smoove_B]

None more America:

When the coronavirus pandemic took hold in an unprepared U.S., many states like Ohio scrambled for masks and other protective gear. Supplies were so limited in 2020 that the state bought millions of medical gowns from a marketing and printing company and spent about $20 million to try to get personal protective equipment made in-state.

Three years later, as the grips of the pandemic have loosened, Ohio and other states are now trying to deal with an excess of protective gear, ditching their supplies in droves.

With expiration dates passing and few requests to tap into the stockpile, Ohio auctioned off 393,000 gowns for just $2,451 and ended up throwing away another 7.2 million, along with expired masks, gloves and other materials. The now expiring supplies had cost about $29 million in federal money.

A similar reckoning is happening around the country. Items are aging, and as a deadline to allocate federal COVID-19 cash approaches next year, states must decide how much to invest in maintaining warehouses and supply stockpiles.

[Isgrimnur]

Perhaps a study of whether expiration dates are a legitimate bellwether would be advisable.

[Punisher]

I had no idea that gowns, masks, and gloves even had an expiration date!
Is it expiration or a best buy thing?
Why is thete even one to begin with?

[Smoove_B]

Why is thete even one to begin with?

If anything contains rubber, in theory it could rot/decay and compromise the PPE (like a headband on a mask). For sterile PPE, they're not expiring as much as they're losing whatever certification the manufacturer is making about how long they should be considered sterile. Similar certifications are provided for non-sterile PPE being held on a shelf under manufacturer's conditions (temp, humidity). In short, so much of it likely comes down to insurance. Not sure what would happen if someone used "expired" nitrile gloves and ended up getting a BBP because allegedly the gloves "expired".

We knew this stuff didn't have an indefinite shelf life (for various reasons) and we could have shipped it anywhere globally for use at any time prior (for things unrelated to COVID-19). Or given things away for free to state and local agencies (like volunteer firefighters or EMTs). And yet, we just let them sit on a shelf and rot. Beyond frustrating.

[Zarathud]

States that don’t believe in government will not do it well.

[Smoove_B]

Merry Xmas everyone



December 23rd Update:

Early update from Biobot due to holidays. Wastewater levels approaching last year's peak. JN.1 dominance will exhert pressure. Estimates:

1,120,000 new infections/day
1 in every 290 became infected today
1 in every 29 people currently infected

[Isgrimnur]

exhert

[Smoove_B]

Probably hard to not have typos when you're saying "goddammit" over and over again.

[Smoove_B]

I'll be curious to see just how high the numbers jump with the estimates for tomorrow...

We had a bit of close call here, regarding Xmas as people visiting us not only came via plane but then decided to go out to a restaurant dinner on 12/23 prior to (1) a large family gathering on 12/25 and then (2) coming to my house for a small gathering (4 people total). As it turns out one of the dinner attendees tested positive for COVID on the morning of 12/26 and so the gathering planned for that afternoon at my house was immediately cancelled. So far no one else has tested positive, but we probably need another day or two to be totally sure.

I'm getting really goddamn tired of it, if I'm being honest. My parents stopped masking in public a while back and they managed to get something ~2 weeks ago. My dad is mostly better but my mom is still sick; we didn't see them for Xmas because of it. When they went to the doctor (different ones), neither were offered a COVID test. They were simply told they have "a virus" and sent home; both are almost 80.

Anyway, the predictions I've been looking at this morning are suggesting this current wave should hit a peak sometime around 1/10/24 (+/- a day or two) as the next round of holiday gatherings this weekend will kick off another wave of mass-transmissions.

Let's see who's normalizing infection today, shall we?

I have tested positive for Covid. My symptoms are minimal and I will continue to work from home in Vermont while isolating in accordance with CDC guidance. I am glad to be fully up to date with the vaccine.

Gotta make sure you communicate it's minimal and you're still working, because America!

[Punisher]

I honestly see that as a push to normalize vaccination.
It implies that it's minimal because he is fully vaccinated.
He's also emphasizeing that hes working from home and in isolation.
I'd say that we need more of this.
As an aside, my son and his gf both got the Vid a week before xmas. He had no symptoms and his gf had just some congestion. Both ate fully vaccinated and boisted i think because they are both in the medical field.

[Smoove_B]

I guess.

The line for a long time from people in the public eye has been "I'm vaccinated and feeling fine - it's a minor inconvenience." There's been no more acknowledgement that vaccinated people are still at risk for Long Covid or that we've somehow normalized working while sick. For many people it isn't a big deal, but there are still plenty of people (vaccinated and not vaccinated) that are experiencing chronic illness as a result of thinking (understandably) being "vaxxed and relaxed" is the way to go now. Sure, it's more likely you're going to experience worse outcomes if you're not vaccinated, but being vaccinated isn't a free pass to avoid Long Covid forever. The best plan is still to avoid repeat infections. Until that changes, consider me in the group that is still being cautious - especially during times of high transmission (i.e. right now).

Also, it must be nice to be able to work from home, get paid and have A+ medical coverage. That's not an option most people have and it's a bit strange to hear Bernie Sanders of all people touting it.

[Blackhawk]

Maybe, but we're in a phase right now where making a stronger statement guarantees that people will not read it, and it's more likely to whip up negative sentiment that convey the intended message. The only people who would bother to pay any attention are those who already agree.

Public figures haven't eased off of their speech because they changed their minds, they eased off because stronger speech was turning out to be counterproductive. It's the "Don't feed the trolls" problem.

[Punisher]

that we've somehow normalized working while sick.

To be fair, working while sick is not new.
It's been tjat way since I started working in the late 80s.
EVERY job my wife and I have had was like this.
Getting badgered until you work is still a thing in a lot of places.
Separate from that is lack of pay of you call out. A lot of people don't always have sick days left.
It was great when 2 weeks off was guaranteed paid for covid if you needed it. Now, it's back to how many sick days you have left.

[Zaxxon]

Maybe, but we're in a phase right now where making a stronger statement guarantees that people will not read it, and it's more likely to whip up negative sentiment that convey the intended message. The only people who would bother to pay any attention are those who already agree.

Public figures haven't eased off of their speech because they changed their minds, they eased off because stronger speech was turning out to be counterproductive. It's the "Don't feed the trolls" problem.

All of this.

[LordMortis]

that we've somehow normalized working while sick.

To be fair, working while sick is not new.
It's been tjat way since I started working in the late 80s.
EVERY job my wife and I have had was like this.
Getting badgered until you work is still a thing in a lot of places.
Separate from that is lack of pay of you call out. A lot of people don't always have sick days left.
It was great when 2 weeks off was guaranteed paid for covid if you needed it. Now, it's back to how many sick days you have left.

Aye, it was that way in all my jobs but harder labor since I was young. In the office world I was simply eye rolly to the young parents who came in regularly with the latest in their children's plagues until 2010s when open offices and more "collaborative" work spaces became the way to do things. Then, I found myself avoiding moving about the office whenever possible and walking in long routes that avoided concentrations of young parent workers. I was fortunate that I worked with things as much as I worked with information so they locked my away in a private workspace so my mess wasn't on display and people couldn't walk away with it.

We did have personal sick days as paid that started as "don't abuse it" until HIPPA and then it became a measurable with legal behind it.

[Punisher]

When of my wifes coworkers was positive with Covid on Friday. She came to work Tuesday without bothering to get another test.
She didn't want to miss getting paid for the holuday or losing hours.
Work didn't say anything since they are short handed.

[Blackhawk]

Maybe, but we're in a phase right now where making a stronger statement guarantees that people will not read it, and it's more likely to whip up negative sentiment that convey the intended message. The only people who would bother to pay any attention are those who already agree.

Public figures haven't eased off of their speech because they changed their minds, they eased off because stronger speech was turning out to be counterproductive. It's the "Don't feed the trolls" problem.

All of this.

Even the typo?

[Blackhawk]

Pure anecdote. Smoove, put your hands over your eyes and hum loudly for a minute, would ya?

The hospital where my friend works is officially at capacity and not accepting new admissions. And yesterday they had a doctor (an OBGYN) almost collapse in the middle of surgery due to COVID. They had to pull him out and replace him mid-procedure, and admitted him as a patient. The funny thing is that he knew he was sick, and he refused to let them take his temperature. Also, Michelle had no idea that there was a new COVID shot. She works in a hospital and she hadn't even heard about it.

This is why we can't have nice things healthy people.

[Smoove_B]

Yeah, I'll just memory wipe that one.

Better news:

New data for the "updated" (XBB.1.5) booster ~60% protection from hospitalization and ED visits vs JN.1 and recent circulating variants

But vaccination w/ prior versions (& waned immunity) offered no protection vs hospitalization

[Max Peck]

Is it really a booster if the vaccines that it's "boosting" are no longer effective?

[Blackhawk]

I'd say it's time to retire the term and just call them "Annual COVID shot."

[Smoove_B]

We've (public health) been trying. But just like anything else associated with COVID-19, the messaging has been terrible and lost in the mix.

There are no more boosters; only annual vaccinations crafted from circulating variant guesses (like the annual influenza shot).

[Smoove_B]

Year end thread unroll from the WHO COVID-19 technical lead:

Long #COVID19 and where we are. I’m worried.

We are entering the 5th year of the pandemic and we are certainly in a different phase. This phase is marked by an evolving virus (with the XBB and BA.2 sublineages circulating and JN.1 becoming dominant).

It’s marked by reduced impact compared to the peak of #COVID19 a few years ago, but it’s still a global health threat and it’s still a pandemic causing far too many (re)infections, hospitalisations, deaths and long covid when tools exist to prevent them.

It's long so I'm not going to quote it all here (see the unroll above), but it's somber. I'm guessing it won't be widely reported in the media or seen by the majority of Americans, but it's a stark reminder of where we are and how things look. Note how she's quite clear that we're still in a pandemic; it's not over.

tl;dr: Not good - mainly because of complacency.

That said, she is trying to inspire and offer a message of hope; for that I am grateful.

[Smoove_B]

According to the latest CDC COVID-19 wastewater data, we are currently in the second-biggest surge of the pandemic.

It will peak in the next week, with ~2 million infections per day. During this surge, ~100 million people total (~1 in 3 people in the US) will likely get COVID.

Just to clarify, that data is through 12/28/23, so it's likely much worse.

[Zaxxon]

We can still get to #1. Let’s go, USA!

[Kurth]

I just got off a work Zoom call with 6 other people from 6 different households. 5/6 reported that "flu" had run roughshod over their holidays, with multiple (in some cases, all) family members laid low for various amounts of time over the break.

It was interesting that no one thought they had COVID. Also interesting that no one tested. I asked about it, and they didn't see the point.

These are all highly educated professionals from NYC, D.C. and Milan, Italy.

[Zaxxon]

I just got off a work Zoom call with 6 other people from 6 different households. 5/6 reported that "flu" had run roughshod over their holidays, with multiple (in some cases, all) family members laid low for various amounts of time over the break.

Yesterday was my first day back after the holidays. I know of at least 3 people at work who have a current case of COVID, plus someone my wife works with. And another friend-of-a-friend with several flu cases running through their house.

It was interesting that no one thought they had COVID. Also interesting that no one tested. I asked about it, and they didn't see the point.

These are all highly educated professionals from NYC, D.C. and Milan, Italy.

I can't really blame people given how terrible the US's testing setup is. Elsewhere you pay $2 and get an all-in-one test for flu/COVID/RSV. Why isn't this a thing here? I can very easily imagine myself in a different life under a less-fortunate set of circumstances where I absolutely would not be putting out the cash for multiple tests for multiple family members for multiple bouts/year, 3.75 years into this thing.

The free tests are nice, but for a family they don't last long, and they're still good only for COVID.

[Dogstar]

Anecdotal reporting from the front: My 87-year-old aunt in NJ had a get-together because she was moving to Wisconsin to live with one of her sons and his wife. I took my 85-year-old parents. Twelve people attended. Nine left that party with COVID unknowingly. Only myself and two second cousins escaped. Whatever is out there is contagious as all get out.

[Smoove_B]

Whatever is out there is contagious as all get out.

The only observation I have is related to vaccination. Namely, people that are current (i.e. received the latest vaccine) seem to be less likely to get whatever is going around. I'll admit my sample size is small (<20), but from the people I know in the last ~30 days that have confirmed COVID-19, that is the pattern - "I didn't know there was another shot" or "I didn't have time to get the vaccine yet" is the refrain...

[Zaxxon]

Whatever is out there is contagious as all get out.

The only observation I have is related to vaccination. Namely, people that are current (i.e. received the latest vaccine) seem to be less likely to get whatever is going around. I'll admit my sample size is small (<20), but from the people I know in the last ~30 days that have confirmed COVID-19, that is the pattern - "I didn't know there was another shot" or "I didn't have time to get the vaccine yet" is the refrain...

I did the mega-booster in Sept (I got the latest shot, then during my window of generating those immuno-mutations, I got the COVIDs for the first time). Since then, I've:

...

(Smoove, cover your eyes)

...

-flown several times (mostly masked)
-attended half a dozen NHL games (unmasked)
-met up with family/friends a bunch of times
-taught supplemental math at my kids' illness factory school a few times/week each week

and have been OK so far. I'm sure my time will come.

[Smoove_B]

I make no judgements; everyone is out there trying to survive and the system is not working to help anyone.

You're gonna make your fortune by and by
But if you lose, don't ask no questions why
The only game you know is do or die

[ImLawBoy]

FWIW, over the holidays we kept our gatherings relatively small - Christmas Eve dinner with MIL (6 total) and my side coming over for a couple of hours a few days prior (11 total). We required testing for all. All were negative and no one has reported symptoms since. My SIL was going to attend on Christmas Eve, but she was on a tour the week prior (she works in tourism) and someone on the tour reported COVID, so she stayed home out of an abundance of caution.

I did get a cold at one point over the holidays, but no fever or other symptoms and tested negative.

[Dogstar]

Whatever is out there is contagious as all get out.

The only observation I have is related to vaccination. Namely, people that are current (i.e. received the latest vaccine) seem to be less likely to get whatever is going around. I'll admit my sample size is small (<20), but from the people I know in the last ~30 days that have confirmed COVID-19, that is the pattern - "I didn't know there was another shot" or "I didn't have time to get the vaccine yet" is the refrain...

I can only speak for the 80+year olds and myself -- all three seniors were up-to-date with vaccinations. That we're all pretty good about keeping up on. I just got my new vaccination the Friday before Christmas -- and Saturday wasn't fun.

The first time I had COVID was back in March and April of 2020 and it stomped me flat. Went from running five miles to out of breath on my couch trying to watch Netflix. I don't want that for any of my relatives, but especially those most at risk.

[Smoove_B]

I can only speak for the 80+year olds and myself -- all three seniors were up-to-date with vaccinations. That we're all pretty good about keeping up on. I just got my new vaccination the Friday before Christmas -- and Saturday wasn't fun.

If you didn't have ~2 weeks between the vaccination and the exposure, it's likely you weren't protected. Additionally, similar to Zaxxon, you might want to check with your doctor to see if they recommend another shot ~90-120 days from your post Xmas recovery with the knowledge your last shot was likely immunologically "wasted" after contracting the illness shortly after vaccination.

I'd also expect the vaccinations to be less effective in elders as their immune system baseline is worse (generally) than younger folks. In other words, I'd still expect elders to get it if the environmental conditions are right (i.e. they're in an area unmasked when high levels of the virus are circulating), I'd just think it's less likely for them to be hospitalized (or worse).

The first time I had COVID was back in March and April of 2020 and it stomped me flat. Went from running five miles to out of breath on my couch trying to watch Netflix. I don't want that for any of my relatives, but especially those most at risk.

Yup. Still a significant unknown - especially the asymptomatic carriers. Until the virus enters your body, you just have no idea how it will respond. What I keep pushing back on is the number of times people are sick. It's like all of a sudden everyone has just accepted that it's "normal" to be significantly sick 4+ times a year; it's not normal. This is not how things were 5+ years ago.

[Zaxxon]

Additionally, similar to Zaxxon, you might want to check with your doctor to see if they recommend another shot ~90-120 days from your post Xmas recovery with the knowledge your last shot was likely immunologically "wasted" after contracting the illness shortly after vaccination.

Didn't know this was a thing. Good to know, and I will ask.

[Smoove_B]

Opinions and experiences seem to vary. Some will joke, "Well, you just received nature's vaccination..." and tell you to get another one in the Fall of 2024. Others might think it's a good idea to re-vaccinate (depending on your underlying health and risks). Like anything else lately, it's a roll of the dice.