That is not dead which can eternal lie, and with strange aeons bring us some web forums whereupon we can gather
https://www.octopusoverlords.com/forum/
https://www.octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=97382
What is the verdict on that?
What is that based on?
Science!
ok, I think that makes sense. So it's not like there is specific information suggesting that 8 months is a particular point at which immunity fades, just that our collective prior experience suggests that there is *some point* at which it may fade, and that the error cost of later finding out that there is reduced immunity at that point could be catastrophic (normal winter surge + people thinking they're immune and not taking precautions).Smoove_B wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 1:10 pmScience!
I think it's a mix of information related to tracking parts of the first cohort of people that were vaccinated plus the understanding that the virus is still raging (and will be) around the globe in the near future (2+ years). So far, the vaccines all seem effective against the circulating strains, which is good news.
The issue is that for coronaviruses immunity in humans is short-term (historical research) and what we wouldn't want to happen is have this giant group of people that's been vaccinated suddenly have a significant dip in immune response at the wrong time (November/December, maybe) and/or while the disease is surging somewhere else (like what's happening right now in India).
It's like playing whack a mole and I think so much likely depends on what happens here in America this summer and how we're looking in October/November, headed into winter. That's why I think it's likely that the first group of people might get boosters in September/October to make sure we don't have what would have been a preventable resurgence during the winter.
Yup, season 2 of the Fall experiment will be interesting as it'll be the first time we can look at vaccination rates and compare them to Fall 2020 trends - really see how the vaccine (hopefully) impacts circulating virus levels. Parts of the U.S. look almost identical to the data from a year ago and yet we've vaccinated a significant portion of the population. The rub will be to see where all those vaccinated people are and if the late Spring / early Summer drop in circulating virus in certain parts of the U.S. is more closely correlated with seasonal/environmental variables than the number of people we've vaccinated.El Guapo wrote: ↑Mon May 24, 2021 1:23 pm ok, I think that makes sense. So it's not like there is specific information suggesting that 8 months is a particular point at which immunity fades, just that our collective prior experience suggests that there is *some point* at which it may fade, and that the error cost of later finding out that there is reduced immunity at that point could be catastrophic (normal winter surge + people thinking they're immune and not taking precautions).
Very true. I expect a Fall booster rollout to go much smoother, yes. The issue of whether or not people will seek a booster is an interesting one as well. I am betting it will come down to convenience and what your individual experience was after the shot(s), i.e. did you have any significant issues. I guess we'll see.At least issues of supply and logistics shouldn't be a problem for the boosters (I wonder if people will be able to take the shot early, like after 6 months, if that fits their schedules better?)
But I'm worried that people who got vaccinated won't be as diligent getting booster shots without covid hanging over our heads on a constant basis.
That's above my pay grade, but I have no doubts there are all kinds of simulations that have been run looking at possible paths for various states and regions based on their vaccination levels.
You mean, kill off or, more likely, infect leading to asymptomatic or mild cases of COVID, right? I haven’t seen the updated mortality stats, but I think they are still something south of 100%.
My wife suggests that repeat cases seemed to be more deadly in the nursing home environments where she lived. Yes, they might have to contract Covid a bunch of times, but with persistence they can eventually remove themselves from the gene pool.
Your wife lived in a nursing home??
More:On Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the latest data on breakthrough COVID-19 infections, which are infections among people who have been fully vaccinated against the disease. Yet again, the data suggests that the vaccines are highly effective against infection, as well as severe disease and death. The data breakdown also hints that vaccines are winning the race against variants, which don’t seem to be breaking through at higher rates than expected.
Among approximately 101 million vaccinated people in the US as of April 30, the CDC collected reports of 10,262 breakthrough cases from 46 states and territories. That works out to about 0.01% breakthrough cases among the fully vaccinated. This number is almost certainly a significant undercounting, the CDC acknowledges.
Still, the numbers are more reliable for severe and deadly breakthrough cases—and those figures are equally comforting. Among the 10,262 cases, only 995 cases (10 percent) were known to require hospitalization. And among those 995 people in the hospital, 289 people (29 percent) had asymptomatic COVID-19 infections or were hospitalized for a reason other than COVID-19.
Less than two percent of all breakthrough infections resulted in death; the CDC tallied just 160 deaths among people with breakthrough COVID-19 infections. Of those who died, 28 people (18 percent) were asymptomatic at the time of death or died from a cause unrelated to COVID-19. The median age of those who died was 82.
Just to prevent any lurking anti-vaxxers from jumping to the wrong conclusion, all those dopes will, eventually, die. However, the vast majority will not die from Covid. Vaccinating isn't some secret plot to end your natural immortality.
Truth dot com used to advertise that 50% of all smokers die. As a then smoker (I think I'm still actually a smoker though I don't know how many years it's been since I have had a cigarette. I would smoke again today if my health were good and withdraw didn't suck so bad) my instincts for that PSA was always to respond I have a 50% chance at becoming immortal.
Not trying to look a gift horse in the mouth, but aren't those hospitalization and death rates pretty similar to those without the vaccine? Isn't it about 10-15% hospitalization and 1-2% deaths?Smoove_B wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 1:33 pm Encouraging news regarding breakthrough cases:
More:On Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the latest data on breakthrough COVID-19 infections, which are infections among people who have been fully vaccinated against the disease. Yet again, the data suggests that the vaccines are highly effective against infection, as well as severe disease and death. The data breakdown also hints that vaccines are winning the race against variants, which don’t seem to be breaking through at higher rates than expected.
Among approximately 101 million vaccinated people in the US as of April 30, the CDC collected reports of 10,262 breakthrough cases from 46 states and territories. That works out to about 0.01% breakthrough cases among the fully vaccinated. This number is almost certainly a significant undercounting, the CDC acknowledges.
Still, the numbers are more reliable for severe and deadly breakthrough cases—and those figures are equally comforting. Among the 10,262 cases, only 995 cases (10 percent) were known to require hospitalization. And among those 995 people in the hospital, 289 people (29 percent) had asymptomatic COVID-19 infections or were hospitalized for a reason other than COVID-19.
Less than two percent of all breakthrough infections resulted in death; the CDC tallied just 160 deaths among people with breakthrough COVID-19 infections. Of those who died, 28 people (18 percent) were asymptomatic at the time of death or died from a cause unrelated to COVID-19. The median age of those who died was 82.
That was my initial thought. What am I missing? That this is good because it's not worse?
I think the rate was ~20% hospitalized and ~2% deaths, so not too different, but it was hard to get an accurate statistics ( due to asymptomatic cases and covid deaths not officially counted).
I don't know if it's an artifact of the sample size (because it's so small). Remember, we're looking at a relatively small group of people - a tiny proportion of those being vaccinated that get sick and and even smaller grouping of those that were vaccinated, became ill and then required treatment (or died). As the CDC points out, it's highly, highly likely that the actual number of breakthrough cases is higher but that those people are completely asymptomatic and never actually know they've been infected. This would change the equation significantly as the pool of people that are having breakthroughs and nothing happens would drive the % of issues even lower.
That seems to pretty much be a dream at this point though. Might as well hope for 80% vaccination rate.Smoove_B wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 2:17 pm I think I mentioned it elsewhere, but this is why population level testing still needs to happen -why we still need to see how the virus is creeping around among vaccinated people. That being said, since we weren't doing large scale surveillance data before we really don't know how it was circulating and causing asymptomatic cases in our population last May or August or October. However, if we can start get a handle on it now I think it will help us better predict future outbreaks - getting more info about seasonal and regional variations.
I'm only left scratching my head because after West Nile Virus arrived in 2001, we were drawing samples from every living creature (land, sea and air) to see where it was and monitoring if any other animals were getting sick. The idea that we couldn't (wouldn't? won't?) set up surveillance testing for asymptomatic COVID-19 in a post-vaccinated America is...frustrating.
What we are all missing. The data is through April 30th but from when? And how did that build to 101 million people? 2% of breakthrough cases needs be in context of 10,262 of 101 million over the course of... a day? a week? Five months?
Looking at the report, it looks like 10K breakthrough cases among fully vaccinated people were reported between 1/1 and 4/30. Of course, keep in mind that the overwhelming majority of those 101 million people were vaccinated for less than that time (so the report would have only included them at the point where they became vaccinated) - for example, it looks like ~50 million people became fully vaccinated in April, so for about half the people, it was less than a month, while for half it was more than a month.LordMortis wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 2:37 pmWhat we are all missing. The data is through April 30th but from when? And how did that build to 101 million people? 2% of breakthrough cases needs be in context of 10,262 of 101 million over the course of... a day? a week? Five months?
People suck.Smoove_B wrote: ↑Tue May 25, 2021 2:31 pmI'm only left scratching my head because after West Nile Virus arrived in 2001, we were drawing samples from every living creature (land, sea and air) to see where it was and monitoring if any other animals were getting sick. The idea that we couldn't (wouldn't? won't?) set up surveillance testing for asymptomatic COVID-19 in a post-vaccinated America is...frustrating.
We’ve already heard a flavour of Dominic Cummings’ criticism of Boris Johnson – saying, extraordinarily, because of the PM’s apparently lax attitude to Covid, that he wasn’t involved in key emergency meetings early on in 2020.
Boris Johnson likened Covid-19 to Swine Flu and a scare story, according to Cummings – and would say things like he wanted to be injected with the virus live on TV to prove it wasn’t dangerous.
He’s also mentioned the PM’s holiday in February 2020 – clearly accusing the prime minister of not taking Covid seriously enough at what was a crucial time in the early days of the pandemic.
But interestingly the PM isn’t being singled out for blame - Cummings has repeatedly described ‘groupthink’, a lack of planning, how systems were not in place for dealing with this sort of pandemic, false assumptions and the dawning realisation that the situation was far worse than anyone had realised.
He said the then Cabinet Secretary Mark Sedwill wanted to advocate Covid ‘chicken-pox parties’ so more people could catch the virus.
And Cummings pulled no punches in his criticism of the Health Secretary Matt Hancock, saying he told the Prime Minister repeatedly that he should have been fired and that his department was overwhelmed.
Rebecca Long Bailey's final question is about whether the wrong people were in the wrong jobs to deal with the pandemic.
Cummings says the crisis raises profound questions about a political system that gives people a choice between Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson.
He says any system that gives a choice between two people like that is obviously a system that has gone "terribly wrong".
There are so many people who could have done a better job than those two he says.
He found himself it "completely crazy" that he himself was in such an important position because he is "not smart".
It is "completely crackers" that he and Boris Johnson were in these prominent positions.
It was "lions led by donkeys" with great people on the ground but the leadership let people down on the front line.
Wow--there is such racial disparity in vaccinations in DC that Black residents now make up *80 percent* of new coronavirus cases there, up from 46 percent late last year, which was in line with total share of city population.
...To tackle the pandemic’s inequitable impact, researchers must also count how COVID-19 contributes to ill health, and do so comprehensively. If scarce resources are allocated with only the death count in mind, low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) with younger populations might not receive their fair share. This could be devastating for countries that rely on the productivity of people of working age for economic development. Choosing the right metrics can also help to identify and address inequity within countries. Evidence from many nations suggest that members of minority ethnic communities are more likely to catch COVID-19 and die from it, as well as being more likely to die at a younger age4 (see also Nature 592, 674–680; 2021).
Fortunately, metrics of illness exist. They inform much health policy — from cancer screening and treatment to attempts to eradicate tuberculosis. Called DALYs and QALYs (disability-adjusted life years and quality-adjusted life years), these measures capture the impact of ill health on a person’s life course — combining the years of life lost because of premature death, and the years lived while experiencing the disabling consequences of disease.
In short, we're just getting started with all this; it'll be a decade or longer (I suspect) until we can really say what the impacts were and will be.We approximate that the health burden due to COVID-induced disability across all age groups could be around 30% overall. We arrived at this crude figure using modest assumptions about the duration and severity of COVID-19-related disease (see Supplementary information). This number also assumes a loss of 0.5 DALYs for an average case of long COVID, regardless of age, and includes DALYs lost as a result of COVID-19 deaths, using standard methods5.
This exercise hints at how much of the long-term health impact we could be missing by counting only deaths.
We can also compare the DALYs lost across age groups. The demographics in Pakistan could place more of the estimated burden of sickness on people of working age. More research is needed to assess whether this is the case: death statistics, in particular, could be under-reported among older people in many countries.
Data on both deaths and disease in vulnerable groups is often the most challenging to collect, particularly where access to services is poor. But it can be done. Kenya, for instance, is already conducting surveys that can potentially feed into real-time models of COVID-19 transmission and impact21. These should be linked with burden-of-disease estimates.
As we count the devastating losses from COVID-19 — of loved ones, jobs, communities, security — the lasting loss of health must also be tallied. Without the right metrics, we can see, understand and respond to only a fraction of the problem.
He suggested that a doctor inject him with the coronavirus live on television to play down the dangers to a nervous public. He modeled himself after the small-town mayor in the movie “Jaws,” who ignored warnings to close the beaches even though there was a marauding shark offshore. As the pandemic closed in on Britain, he was distracted by an unflattering story about his fiancée and her dog.
That was the portrait of Prime Minister Boris Johnson painted by his disaffected former chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, in parliamentary testimony on Wednesday. While Mr. Johnson flatly rejected several of the assertions in his own appearance in Parliament on Wednesday, they nevertheless landed with a thud in a country still struggling to understand how the early days of the pandemic were botched so badly.
“When the public needed us most, the government failed,” said Mr. Cummings, the political strategist who masterminded Britain’s campaign to leave the European Union and engineered Mr. Johnson’s rise to power before falling out bitterly with his boss and emerging as a self-styled whistle-blower.
