Octopus Overlords

There's a poll for who people want in the Republican and Democratic (if Biden doesn't run) primaries of 2024. And yes, it's too early (to be predictive), but it's fascinating to see where people think the direction the parties will go.

Among Republicans: 31% Pence, 17% Trump Jr, 11% Nikki Haley and 9% Romney (and then others)
Among all voters: 30% Romney, 18% Pence, 9% Haley

Among Democrats: 21% Cuomo, 19% Harris, 16% Buttigieg
Among all voters: 20% Cuomo, 14% Buttigieg ,14% Yang , 13% Harris, 9% AOC

I would pay to see AOC vs Haley.

I think it's folly to think Harris wouldn't be the shoo-in for 2024 if Biden steps down.

I'd love to see Pence as the 2024 candidate. He's got less charisma than Bob Dole, which I didn't think was humanly possible.

Even if the GOP nominates a "RINO" like Romney or tries to capture the suburban women with Haley the GOP needs to be kept as far away as possible from governing because they lost that privilege after the mismanagement of the past few years.

Bring Pence on and he can be hanged on his enabling of Trump.

The GOP base isn't going to change, and the party is nothing without them.

Look for Tom Cotton or Ted Cruz to run in 2024. Romney might as well quit the GOP, and probably will.

Holman wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:51 pm The GOP base isn't going to change, and the party is nothing without them.

Look for Tom Cotton or Ted Cruz to run in 2024. Romney might as well quit the GOP, and probably will.

The GOP needs to lose large and/or repeatedly before anything substantive can change. There are non-crazy scenarios where Biden winds up winning states up through TX, GA, AZ, + FL, in addition to winning back the upper midwest and keeping the blue states. If that happens, that would be a shock to the system that might motivate changes on the right. Also would give Democrats enough leeway to implement majoritarian reforms (increasing voting rights), which will at least help against the counter-majoritarian routes that the GOP is trying to use to get semi-permanent power.

But if Biden wins say at 3 - 4 point victory and manages to get Trump out of office, that won't change anything, at least unless and until the GOP loses again in 2024.

There are key Republican constituencies (anti-abortion, NRA, religious) who are incapable of compromise or moderation. This rot started to spread widely in 1990.

And remember that the GOP had a full range of options in 2016, from Jeb to Christie to Rubio to Cruz to Trump, with a dozen other options in between.

They picked the most racist and destructive candidate they could find.

Holman wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 3:44 pm And remember that the GOP had a full range of options in 2016, from Jeb to Christie to Rubio to Cruz to Trump, with a dozen other options in between.

They picked the most racist and destructive candidate they could find.

Although bear in mind that it was a crowded field and a "first past the post" system where all delegates went to the plurality winner. Trump dominated the field but was winning (especially early on) with 35% - 40%ish of the vote. He might well not have won with a ranked choice type system.

Of course, *now* he has huge support among Republicans (albeit with some fluidity about who considers themselves a Republican). But just to say that maybe there's some hope.

Holman wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:51 pm The GOP base isn't going to change, and the party is nothing without them.

When someone refuses to follow the rules for playing nice, you take away their toys so they don't have any alternative.

Which is why we need to spend the next few years focused on reforms that makes Trumpist actions impossible to get away with going forward.

Assuming, of course, that we're given the opportunity.

YellowKing wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 11:20 am I think it's folly to think Harris wouldn't be the shoo-in for 2024 if Biden steps down.

We know not what the next 4 years will bring. I've seen some economists predict the economy will stay in the shitter for at least several more years, and it's likely to get much worse before it starts recovering. While all that is in motion now, most attention-span deficient voters will find the greatest period of misery during the Biden regime and are inclined to blame him and all involved.

I was referring to the Democratic nomination re: Harris. I'm not at all confident the country will not swing back to the GOP in 2024, particularly if the Dems manage to take control of the Senate.

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:15 am

Holman wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:51 pm The GOP base isn't going to change, and the party is nothing without them.

When someone refuses to follow the rules for playing nice, you take away their toys so they don't have any alternative.

Which is why we need to spend the next few years focused on reforms that makes Trumpist actions impossible to get away with going forward.

Assuming, of course, that we're given the opportunity.

I agonize over this because as I figure there is likely no substantive reform possible (within the current system) in response to the current GOP/Trump Presidential powers playbook. That playbook hinges on the intentional abuse of Article II powers while relying on the slow response speed of Article III courts to blunt the response. In the end, the courts will rule against a GOP President sometimes and sometimes they won't; increasingly not if they keep dropping in judges like Rao. However while those legal issues cook in the background they will be getting their dirty work done. The SCOTUS in particular is very sympathetic to emergency actions as long as it is a clear Article II adjacent concern and the President is Republican.

A GOP President can also pretty much ignore Article I oversight as well. Even the new contempt fine system that Ted Lieu et. al. proposed is probably not going to work. It's possible they'll show up and refuse to answer questions substantially or just lie like Barr just did. A GOP DOJ isn't going to prosecute them for Perjury to Congress in any event. In any case, this is an asymmetrical game now and we likely will need massive protest to get the reforms we need.

Our system of checks and balances relies on an inherent respect for the rule of law. The weakness is a lawless President and Senate are not much different than a dictator. Putin is all over this weakness like stink on shit.

Apparently Trump is all in on a 2024 run, and plans to hold rallies for the next four years (hopefully at venues like Four Seasons Landscaping). Can even the Repugnicans keep him from winning the nomination? They were powerless in 2016. The shit show continues.

Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Yes.

im not thinking on it at all for a few years peace of mind.

Jaymann wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:05 pm Apparently Trump is all in on a 2024 run, and plans to hold rallies for the next four years (hopefully at venues like Four Seasons Landscaping). Can even the Repugnicans keep him from winning the nomination? They were powerless in 2016. The shit show continues.

Will the Resolute Desk fit inside his cell?

Daehawk wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:42 pm

Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Yes.

im not thinking on it at all for a few years peace of mind.

I kinda agree with that - well, maybe not a few "years", but I need at least a few weeks to decompress...

There's something else to consider here: once Trump is no longer surrounded by medical professionals that, for better or worse, are keeping very close tabs on his physical health, and he no longer has a helicopter on standby to take him to Walter Reed - how long before his age, obesity, and any potential COVID-19 fallout catches up to him? Quite frankly, I don't see him physically capable of holding rallies for the next 4 years.

You never know, of course. He seems to be so disgusting, even viruses don't particularly want him.

gilraen wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 4:39 pm

Daehawk wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:42 pm

Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

Yes.

im not thinking on it at all for a few years peace of mind.

I kinda agree with that - well, maybe not a few "years", but I need at least a few weeks to decompress...

There's something else to consider here: once Trump is no longer surrounded by medical professionals that, for better or worse, are keeping very close tabs on his physical health, and he no longer has a helicopter on standby to take him to Walter Reed - how long before his age, obesity, and any potential COVID-19 fallout catches up to him? Quite frankly, I don't see him physically capable of holding rallies for the next 4 years.

Excellent point. But Putin might keep him propped up for his interest payments.

I think a Trump on the 2024 ticket is by far the likeliest scenario. Donald will announce right away so he can keep funneling money into his pockets. If/when he succumbs to his health it will be either Jr or Ivanka who step in.

I could also see Trump starting his own TV network, in that case one of his spawn will announce their run.

msteelers wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 5:52 pm I could also see Trump starting his own TV network, in that case one of his spawn will announce their run.

I saw an interesting discussion about this recently. Starting a TV network is *hard*. Success is rare, and it takes all kinds of talent that Trump just doesn't have. Trump slaps his name on things, but he doesn't actually work, and almost everything he has tried since inheriting his father's business has failed miserably.

I can imagine Trump having a show of some kind, but not starting a network. (Maybe he'll slide his fat ass into Rush Limbaugh's chair after Rush finally croaks?) But even then I'm not sure he would succeed. His rallies worked because he could make threats about how he'll use the power of the presidency, but he was never any sort of content creator.

Holman wrote:

msteelers wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 5:52 pm I could also see Trump starting his own TV network, in that case one of his spawn will announce their run.

I saw an interesting discussion about this recently. Starting a TV network is *hard*. Success is rare, and it takes all kinds of talent that Trump just doesn't have. Trump slaps his name on things, but he doesn't actually work, and almost everything he has tried since inheriting his father's business has failed miserably.

I can imagine Trump having a show of some kind, but not starting a network. (Maybe he'll slide his fat ass into Rush Limbaugh's chair after Rush finally croaks?) But even then I'm not sure he would succeed. His rallies worked because he could make threats about how he'll use the power of the presidency, but he was never any sort of content creator.

All good points. If this is the way it goes, my guess is he partners somehow with OANN to be a “featured correspondent” or something that allows him to call in whenever he wants, and does his own internet show where he can have more freedom to follow whatever schedule he wants.

Also, this is Trump we are talking about. I don’t expect a TV venture to succeed.

msteelers wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 6:58 pm my guess is he partners somehow with OANN to be a “featured correspondent” or something that allows him to call in whenever he wants, and does his own internet show where he can have more freedom to follow whatever schedule he wants.

Also, this is Trump we are talking about. I don’t expect a TV venture to succeed.

I expect him to get profit sharing from OANN and some sort of branding commission. I expect he will succeed and continue to work with Russian propagandists and believe his direction is his own. I also expect his health to give out and for him to die, wherein I my emotions will kick me in the nuts for taking joy in his death and shame in my joy. His children will try to succeed him and they will fail/succeed by narrowing their following down to the inflammatory and the insane.

I do wonder if Trump will ever be admitted to the Ex-Presidents Club.

Nixon spent some years in the wilderness before finally overcoming his pariah status and appearing at the occasional ceremonial event alongside Ford, Carter, Reagan, and Bush1. But he kept his head down and, aside from publishing his memoirs, never tried to insert himself into political debates after Watergate.

I suspect we're going to keep hearing Trump's obnoxious bullshit for a few years to come. If so, I really can't imagine the living ex-presidents agreeing to welcome his presence among them.

I hope he won't be invited to Jimmy Carter's funeral, but I actually expect Carter to outlive him.

I can see trump building houses alongside Jimmy, if they have his name in gold lettering.

One key I think is for Biden not to push too many "socialist" ideas. Universal healthcare or a variation and that is all. I have seen sooooo many trump voters say it was a decision between capitalism and socialism, just another lie they had bought into. I'd push back that did they realize there were only 3 Reps/Senators that identified with Democratic socialism out of 535 reps and senators (that I'm aware of). Three! Biden is no where near socialist but they've been so brain washed. Biden needs to prove to them that major socialist policies are not the future of the US other than healthcare for all.

The huge social-media spats between Democratic centrists and Democratic progressives right now are fights between people where centrism wins local elections and where progressivism wins local elections.

Big Tent is hard.

That's going to be more 2022 than 2024.

Holman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:19 pm I do wonder if Trump will ever be admitted to the Ex-Presidents Club.

Nope. Clinton and Trump in anything other than a cold war? Never. He'll die inflaming right wing extremism and conspiracy theory.

Holman wrote: ↑Sun Nov 08, 2020 9:58 pm The huge social-media spats between Democratic centrists and Democratic progressives right now are fights between people where centrism wins local elections and where progressivism wins local elections.

Big Tent is hard.

Yep and that's OK, even good, as long as they don't let MAGAts walk over them and can move forward when it counts. See how not to handle COVID.

Trump could became the Lyndon LaRouche of the Repugnicans.

Defiant wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 2:20 am There's a poll for who people want in the Republican and Democratic (if Biden doesn't run) primaries of 2024. And yes, it's too early (to be predictive), but it's fascinating to see where people think the direction the parties will go.

Among Republicans: 31% Pence, 17% Trump Jr, 11% Nikki Haley and 9% Romney (and then others)
Among all voters: 30% Romney, 18% Pence, 9% Haley

Among Democrats: 21% Cuomo, 19% Harris, 16% Buttigieg
Among all voters: 20% Cuomo, 14% Buttigieg ,14% Yang , 13% Harris, 9% AOC

The thing that stands out to me the most here is that Don Jr. is seen by Republicans as the second most likely 2024 nominee behind Pence. He's not even on the radar among all voters. That tells me (what I think we all know already) that the GOP base is still completely in thrall to the Trumps.

Unless something changes, I think they'll kick Pence to the curb (can't blame them for that) and put another Trump on the ballot in 2024, and that's just sad, pathetic and scary.

2024 scares me because I don't think you've seen motivation like a bunch of butt-hurt Trumpers who think 2020 was stolen from them.

It's not too early for Chris Christie:

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is seriously considering running for president in 2024, three people familiar with his thinking tell Axios.

Driving the news: While Christie isn't saying anything publicly about his thinking — besides telling radio host Hugh Hewitt he's not ruling it out — people close to him have an early sense of the rationale and outlines of a potential candidacy.

I can't imagine it will work out for him. He's a pile of garbage.

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:54 am It's not too early for Chris Christie:

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is seriously considering running for president in 2024, three people familiar with his thinking tell Axios.

Driving the news: While Christie isn't saying anything publicly about his thinking — besides telling radio host Hugh Hewitt he's not ruling it out — people close to him have an early sense of the rationale and outlines of a potential candidacy.

I can't imagine it will work out for him. He's a pile of garbage.

You'd think that would be an asset for a GOP primary.

But yeah, I really really doubt he'll go anywhere. He's in this no man's land where he's too Trumpy for anyone in the GOP who wants to move on from Trump (all five of them), but at the same time I don't think he's really seen as "one of the tribe" by the MAGA faithful. Even if Trump himself doesn't run, it's hard to see how he would get traction vs. someone like DeSantis.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:57 am

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:54 am It's not too early for Chris Christie:

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is seriously considering running for president in 2024, three people familiar with his thinking tell Axios.

Driving the news: While Christie isn't saying anything publicly about his thinking — besides telling radio host Hugh Hewitt he's not ruling it out — people close to him have an early sense of the rationale and outlines of a potential candidacy.

I can't imagine it will work out for him. He's a pile of garbage.

You'd think that would be an asset for a GOP primary.

But yeah, I really really doubt he'll go anywhere. He's in this no man's land where he's too Trumpy for anyone in the GOP who wants to move on from Trump (all five of them), but at the same time I don't think he's really seen as "one of the tribe" by the MAGA faithful. Even if Trump himself doesn't run, it's hard to see how he would get traction vs. someone like DeSantis.

He's the kid who wants to hang with the other cool MAGA kids and they'll let him only so they can pick on him. But he ain't one of them.

$iljanus wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:02 am He's the kid who wants to hang with the other cool MAGA kids and they'll let him only so they can pick on him. But he ain't one of them.

Do you see Boeberts and Cottons and Taylors and Geatzes and Paxtons and even the sniveling Cruzes and Nuneses and Grahams getting behind him... OK, you got me. The Grahams will get behind anyone and grovel for his supper.

I genuinely think he's going to try and re-brand himself as the "non-Trump" Republican - trying to really play up the "conservative" elements and distance himself from the racist, xenophobic core that is apparently the new GOP.

However, he's a pile of garbage in a giant bag of skin.

Christie had a populist streak in him back in the early NJ days. I think it could return to try to assume the Trump mantle. This path is almost certainly going to be blocked by a DeSantis or Hawley who are more telegenic, more Trump-y, and more ruthless than even Christie. Plus Christie's instincts have reliably failed him on the national stage and I suspect that'll happen again.

Example A why Christie is unlikely to be the 2024 GOP candidate. He'd never do something this vile and evil. DeSantis is playing the 'I'm not sure this *exactly* happened but just going to continue on like it's true card.