While attendance at Sunday afternoon’s anti-lockdown protest on Parliament Hill fell abysmally short of the 100,000 that organizers said they’d hoped for, the 150 to 200 who braved the sunshine on their largely maskless faces were certainly vociferous in their opposition to the government-mandated COVID-19 restrictions under which they’ve been asked to live for much of the past year.
Some wore red hoodies that read “Make Canada Great Again,” while others carried Canadian flags or, in one instance, a mounted copy of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Placards urged that RCMP commissioner Brenda Lucki be fired for “failing to prosecute publishers of fraudulent ‘new case’” numbers, or reminded people that “freedom is essential” and “wearing a mask to keep out viruses is like “wearing a chain link fence to keep out mosquitos.”
I'm pretty sure I know where they got the idea for the "Make Canada Great Again" slogan. The sheer stupidity is probably entirely domestic, though.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Let's get back to the 90/9/1 percent distribution, that applies to the components of the near future: 90% here today, 9% not here yet but on the drawing boards, and 1% unpredictable. I came up with that rule of thumb around 2005, but the ratio seems to be shifting these days. Changes happen faster, and there are more disruptive unknown-unknowns hitting us from all quarters with every passing decade. This is a long-established trend: throughout most of recorded history, the average person lived their life pretty much the same way as their parents and grandparents. Long-term economic growth averaged less than 0.1% per year over the past two thousand years. It has only been since the onset of the industrial revolution that change has become a dominant influence on human society. I suspect the 90/9/1 distribution is now something more like 85/10/5 — that is, 85% of the world of 2029 is here today, about 10% can be anticipated, and the random, unwelcome surprises constitute up to 5% of the mix. Which is kind of alarming, when you pause to think about it.
Note that the article is mostly about AI, and trends in computing, but here are those prediction ideas:
But I'm willing to stick my neck out and make some firm predictions.
Firstly, for a decade now IT departments have been grappling with the bring-your-own-device age. We're now moving into the bring-your-own-neural-processor age, and while I don't know what the precise implications are, I can see it coming. As I mentioned, there's a neural processor in my iPad. In ten years time, future-iPad will probably have a neural processor three orders of magnitude more powerful (at least) than my current one, getting up into the trillion ops per second range. And all your students and staff will be carrying this sort of machine around on their person, all day. In their phones, in their wrist watches, in their augmented reality glasses.
The Chinese government's roll-out of social scoring on a national level may seem like a dystopian nightmare, but something not dissimilar could be proposed by a future university administration as a tool for evaluating students by continuous assessment, the better to provide feedback to them. As part of such a program we could reasonably expect to see ubiquitous deployment of recognizers, quite possibly as a standard component of educational courseware. Consider a distance learning application which uses gaze tracking, by way of a front-facing camera, to determine what precisely the students are watching. It could be used to provide provide feedback to the lecturer, or to direct the attention of viewers to something they've missed, or to pay for the courseware by keeping eyeballs on adverts. Any of these purposes are possible, if not desirable.
With a decade's time for maturation I'd expect to see the beginnings of a culture of adversarial malware designed to fool the watchers. It might be superficially harmless at first, like tools for fooling the gaze tracker in the aforementioned app into thinking a hung-over student is not in fact asleep in front of their classroom screen. But there are darker possibilities, and they only start with cheating continuous assessments or faking research data. If a future Home Office tries to automate the PREVENT program for detecting and combating radicalization, or if they try to extend it — for example, to identify students holding opinions unsympathetic to the governing party of the day — we could foresee pushback from staff and students, and some of the pushback could be algorithmic.
This is proximate-future stuff, mind you.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
While attendance at Sunday afternoon’s anti-lockdown protest on Parliament Hill fell abysmally short of the 100,000 that organizers said they’d hoped for, the 150 to 200 who braved the sunshine on their largely maskless faces were certainly vociferous in their opposition to the government-mandated COVID-19 restrictions under which they’ve been asked to live for much of the past year.
Some wore red hoodies that read “Make Canada Great Again,” while others carried Canadian flags or, in one instance, a mounted copy of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Placards urged that RCMP commissioner Brenda Lucki be fired for “failing to prosecute publishers of fraudulent ‘new case’” numbers, or reminded people that “freedom is essential” and “wearing a mask to keep out viruses is like “wearing a chain link fence to keep out mosquitos.”
I'm pretty sure I know where they got the idea for the "Make Canada Great Again" slogan. The sheer stupidity is probably entirely domestic, though.
Are we sure they weren't mocking with the red hats and slogan?
You better hope so, brother (you are in Canada, right?).
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:32 pm
by Max Peck
No, I take them at face value. We have our own Magat-wannabes and Covid-deniers and conspiracy wingnuts and Proud Boys and what-not here in Canada. Fortunately, their numbers are relatively small and they aren't being encouraged by any of the major political parties.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:48 pm
by Madmarcus
Biden will do and say reasonable things but the lingering results of Covid will trash the economy. The Democrats will make a few small gains in healthcare and social justice but the Republicans will be able to spin it as benefiting certain groups (racial yes but also urban versus rural, educated versus blue collar, and secular versus religious). Trump will very publicly state he isn't running for office and act as a kingmaker. In the end the GOP will find someone with a Bush II type of "compassionate conservative" message, a public persona that doesn't alienate suburban women, and some tie to the Hispanic community. The next presidential election will be a win for the GOP with a very close popular vote leading to a solid GOP electoral lead.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:53 pm
by El Guapo
To me the biggest uncertainty for 2024 is whether Trump will be indicted and convicted before then. I think most people are underestimating the chances that he gets indicted, given the number of prosecutors that will be looking at him and the number of crimes that he has likely committed. If he is indicted...odds of conviction are hard to estimate, since good luck finding a good jury pool, and given the threats of violence that people involved will face.
If Trump isn't indicted, hard for me to see him not running for office again, given the power and corruption that he gets from being president. Maybe if GOP establishment folks can point him towards another avenue for corruption that doesn't involve being president, who knows. If he does he's probably the favorite to win the GOP nomination. If the GOP establishment is smart they'll reform the rules to be less "winner take all" to help people beat Trump in a divided field...but I doubt they'll get their act together, and I don't know how many people in the GOP establishment genuinely care about stopping Trump anyway.
I think Biden will be a narrow favorite in 2024 regardless given the advantages of incumbency and given that the GOP brand will probably still be suspect to Democrats and Independents in 2024, but given the EC Biden would probably have something like a 55% - 65%ish chance to win.
Right now I expect the GOP to take the House in 2022 but Democrats to hold the Senate as Republicans squander winnable Senate races by running lunatics.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:56 am
by noxiousdog
El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:53 pm
I think Biden will be a narrow favorite in 2024 regardless given the advantages of incumbency and given that the GOP brand will probably still be suspect to Democrats and Independents in 2024, but given the EC Biden would probably have something like a 55% - 65%ish chance to win.
I was under the impression Biden was planning on being a one term president.
It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:37 am
by Carpet_pissr
noxiousdog wrote:
El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:53 pm
I think Biden will be a narrow favorite in 2024 regardless given the advantages of incumbency and given that the GOP brand will probably still be suspect to Democrats and Independents in 2024, but given the EC Biden would probably have something like a 55% - 65%ish chance to win.
I was under the impression Biden was planning on being a one term president.
I need to look into that further. I hope that’s true, personally.
He’s said multiple times he only ran bc Trump’s response to Charlottesville was so bad, that it pissed him off and made him want to kick his ass out. He explicitly denied requests to run in 2016 due to his son's recent death.
I think the right wing media (smartly) converted this into “Biden doesn’t really want to be President!” for their lemming followers, bc I heard a variation on that theme more than a couple of times from relatives.
And again, that’s probably not far from the truth (though the intent/spin changes it into something base and low of course, as if he’s lazy or doesn’t care or some bs).
He’s just so damn old and feeble SOUNDING. Even if his mind is still sharp as a tack (I have no idea), it’s not a great look for a political party literally trying to stave off a destructive, ravenous mob driven by a dynamic, loud charismatic wannabe dictator.
For the thinking man, it does present a choice between normalcy and chaos (which is probably what ultimately led to Biden’s W), but for 2024 we need a young, charismatic, vibrant fighter. Harris would be great.
In fact, there were some really great choices in the D primary this time. Harris, maybe Booker, maybe Buttigieg. Klobuchar is great. Add in a couple of Eric Swallwell types.
I’m reading a book right now centered around the 1920’s in American history. Remember the very odd phrase by Coolidge before his first term was up: “I do not choose to run” which apparently freaked everybody out (bc they had no idea what he meant, and he refused to elaborate )
Interestingly, Coolidge has something in common with Biden - both lost kids way too soon, while in office, which was attributed to their desires not to continue in politics.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:53 pm
I think Biden will be a narrow favorite in 2024 regardless given the advantages of incumbency and given that the GOP brand will probably still be suspect to Democrats and Independents in 2024, but given the EC Biden would probably have something like a 55% - 65%ish chance to win.
I was under the impression Biden was planning on being a one term president.
People are widely assuming that without a basis in fact. Biden described himself during the campaign as expecting to be a "transitional" president. People are reading into that remark that he plans to only be a one term president, even though that's something that he has explicitly denied, and a few weeks ago Chris Coons (who is close to Biden) said that he is planning on running for a second term.
Obviously Biden is very old, and actuarial tables being what they are it wouldn't be shocking if he had some type of significant health setback over the next four years. But if he's in more or less the same shape when the 2024 campaign comes around, it's very very likely that he'll run for a second term.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:05 pm
by malchior
This type of effort is why I believe the Republicans will take the House and Senate. I don't know Georgia well enough to guess how successful it'll be but they haven't even gotten to the gerrymandering effort yet on top.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:50 pm
by Kraken
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:40 pm
by malchior
A splash of cold water on the idea that the GOP is going to do anything but win the House next year. Time is running out on our democracy.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:45 pm
by Smoove_B
I'm actually kinda nervous our (D) governor is going to get the rug yanked out from under him if there isn't significant voter turnout this Fall. I am hoping I'm wrong and people are motivated to vote, but the (R) hate him with the fury of a thousand suns because he's apparently the greatest tyrant that ever lived as part of this pandemic. I don't know if a similar dynamic is going to occur nationwide and help to get delplorables elected in State and local positions.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:14 pm
by malchior
It's possible. I tend to think Murphy will be safe. Heck I will vote for him even though I think he is terrible. I have a strong belief I'm going to be furious with him again around budget time. But terrible is better than anyone who'd align with the GOP.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Fri Apr 30, 2021 9:42 pm
by Kraken
Smoove_B wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:45 pm
I'm actually kinda nervous our (D) governor is going to get the rug yanked out from under him if there isn't significant voter turnout this Fall. I am hoping I'm wrong and people are motivated to vote, but the (R) hate him with the fury of a thousand suns because he's apparently the greatest tyrant that ever lived as part of this pandemic. I don't know if a similar dynamic is going to occur nationwide and help to get delplorables elected in State and local positions.
Do you know who his opponent is yet? Maybe they'll shoot themselves in the foot with a fire-breathing trumpster.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:39 pm
by malchior
The primary is in June. That said, the GOP bench in NJ is super, super shallow. Citarelli is likely to be the candidate. His name is almost completely unknown in NJ.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Sat May 01, 2021 12:38 am
by Smoove_B
Kraken wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 9:42 pm
Do you know who his opponent is yet? Maybe they'll shoot themselves in the foot with a fire-breathing trumpster.
That's the thing - it won't matter. If they are running as a (R) the legions of GOP voters will pull a lever for him (or her). It shouldn't be a problem *unless* he's also not polling well with (D) voters (I honestly don't know) and they don't show up to vote for our governor (which is common). It's a long way to November, but the vitriol I see on social media over his current actions for the pandemic is still pretty severe 14+ months later.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Kraken wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 9:42 pm
Do you know who his opponent is yet? Maybe they'll shoot themselves in the foot with a fire-breathing trumpster.
That's the thing - it won't matter. If they are running as a (R) the legions of GOP voters will pull a lever for him (or her). It shouldn't be a problem *unless* he's also not polling well with (D) voters (I honestly don't know) and they don't show up to vote for our governor (which is common). It's a long way to November, but the vitriol I see on social media over his current actions for the pandemic is still pretty severe 14+ months later.
Yeah I get the worry about turnout/enthusiasm. The upside is that IIRC Murphy is polling in the 60% range approval wise - mostly for the pandemic. That's a healthy edge. Whoever gets the nod is going to be unknown. Yadda yadda. It's not impossible for Murphy to lose but I'd ballpark it at much less than likely until we get actual data.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Biden’s message: The era of 'big government is over' … is over.
Bill Belichick Announced Major Patriots News After NFL Draft
A growing list of House Democrats from competitive districts are headed for the exits, adding yet another concern for a party facing an uphill fight to maintain control of Congress next year.
The latest to announce her departure is Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), the former head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, who proclaimed her coming retirement Friday after narrowly winning reelection in a rural district along the Mississippi River that supported Donald Trump.
...
The exodus comes as the party struggles to maintain or extend the narrowest congressional majority in decades — currently six seats, which will grow to seven in coming days as a newly-elected Democrat, Troy Carter from Louisiana, is sworn in.
Democrats have little margin for error to keep control, even as they simultaneously will be working against a redistricting cycle that is likely to favor Republican officeholders.
The Democratic departures are likely to make it easier for sometimes-partisan mapmakers to draw maps that favor Republican pickups. They also mean that Democrats will not fully take advantage of incumbency, with its fundraising and name recognition benefits. In 2018, the last midterm shake-up, 91 percent of incumbents won reelection, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
This time, Democrats will be the ones fighting historical head winds that tend to punish the president’s party in midterm elections. Since 1910, the party in the White House has gained House seats in a midterm only twice: in 1934, after the election of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and in 2002, when President George W. Bush was leading a response to the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. President Bill Clinton lost 54 seats in his first midterm. Barack Obama lost 64. Donald Trump gave up about 40.
Amid these grim odds, retirements have long been viewed by party strategists as a key early metric of just how challenging an election cycle will be. Similar early decisions to leave Congress have been a bane for Republicans in recent midterms, playing a major role in the 2018 Democratic takeover of the House, which followed an exodus of 33 GOP members — nearly twice as many as Democrats.
“In 2018, there is no doubt that Republican retirements and late redrawing of maps made a significant difference in our ability to win additional seats,” said Dan Sena, the DCCC’s executive director that cycle.
Now those advantages are more likely to go to Republicans. Only one Republican from a competitive seat, Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.), has so far signaled he will leave the House to run for governor. The other three announced GOP retirements hail from safe Republican districts. (Three additional Democratic seats are vacant with special elections to fill them planned for this year.)
“The tables have turned. Republicans are on offense,” said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Michael McAdams. “A lot of these vulnerable Democrats are in swing districts and are going to have to contend with new district lines, and they want to get off House Democrats’ sinking ship.”
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Fri May 28, 2021 11:17 pm
by Kraken
Just for fun, I'll put this one on record:
The Republican House will refuse to certify the Democrats' WH victory in 2024. Hordes will descend on the Capitol to protest. Provocateurs will provoke unrest, and the Capitol Police will come down hard on the protesters with rapid National Guard reinforcements. Congress will launch a partisan investigation into BLM, antifa, and related lefty boogeymen to suppress the resistance.
This radically departs from my prediction that started this thread, which I also still stand behind because I'm a schizophrenic covering his bets.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Fri May 28, 2021 11:47 pm
by Jaymann
That is certainly a possibility, but there is a major difference from 2020. The Democrats will be in possession of the White House, and if they actually win the election could refuse to be dislodged. The usurpers would be in a weaker position relative to the police and the military. Very likely it would be contested for years, be that in the courts or the streets or both. With the actual future of Democracy at stake, it is just possible the Democrats would grow a spine.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Sat May 29, 2021 12:27 am
by Grifman
Jaymann wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:47 pm
That is certainly a possibility, but there is a major difference from 2020. The Democrats will be in possession of the White House, and if they actually win the election could refuse to be dislodged. The usurpers would be in a weaker position relative to the police and the military. Very likely it would be contested for years, be that in the courts or the streets or both. With the actual future of Democracy at stake, it is just possible the Democrats would grow a spine.
Nope, it would not be contested for years. It would very rapidly move to the Supreme Court, and as long as the various states followed their laws, I suspect the SC would decline to hear any cases, no matter how bad the election laws might be. If a state follows their procedures for certification, however arbitrary they might be, I'm not sure the SC would weigh in. If a state law says if an election is not certified that the legislature can then appoint the electors, well, that's the law.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Jaymann wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:47 pm
That is certainly a possibility, but there is a major difference from 2020. The Democrats will be in possession of the White House, and if they actually win the election could refuse to be dislodged. The usurpers would be in a weaker position relative to the police and the military. Very likely it would be contested for years, be that in the courts or the streets or both. With the actual future of Democracy at stake, it is just possible the Democrats would grow a spine.
Nope, it would not be contested for years. It would very rapidly move to the Supreme Court, and as long as the various states followed their laws, I suspect the SC would decline to hear any cases, no matter how bad the election laws might be. If a state follows their procedures for certification, however arbitrary they might be, I'm not sure the SC would weigh in. If a state law says if an election is not certified that the legislature can then appoint the electors, well, that's the law.
Nope. Kraken was talking about the House refusing to certify the results.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Jaymann wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:47 pm
That is certainly a possibility, but there is a major difference from 2020. The Democrats will be in possession of the White House, and if they actually win the election could refuse to be dislodged. The usurpers would be in a weaker position relative to the police and the military. Very likely it would be contested for years, be that in the courts or the streets or both. With the actual future of Democracy at stake, it is just possible the Democrats would grow a spine.
Nope, it would not be contested for years. It would very rapidly move to the Supreme Court, and as long as the various states followed their laws, I suspect the SC would decline to hear any cases, no matter how bad the election laws might be. If a state follows their procedures for certification, however arbitrary they might be, I'm not sure the SC would weigh in. If a state law says if an election is not certified that the legislature can then appoint the electors, well, that's the law.
Nope. Kraken was talking about the House refusing to certify the results.
I think this could actually be one of the things that ends America. House refuses to certify results and supreme court backs them, then the Democrats either grow a spine and start ignoring the house and the SC or they bend over and take it. Either way, mass unrest.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Sat May 29, 2021 9:27 pm
by Drazzil
One wonders how far we would have to go off the rails for other powers to start sanctioning us. My guess is pretty damn far. As long as our markets remain strong I hesitate to see how other countries could do this, but all it would take is a series of bloody crackdowns to make the stonk market take a dump, then other countries could sanction us for the crackdowns, as our markets are no longer king shit of the mountain.
We're really on the razors edge here in so many ways I don't see us being a major power much after the 2024 elections.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Sat May 29, 2021 10:06 pm
by Jaymann
Another disastrous result could be two separate governments claiming legitimacy, like Florida Man is already attempting.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Sun May 30, 2021 1:34 am
by Sudy
Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:32 pmJesus.
You said it, man.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Sun May 30, 2021 3:54 am
by Drazzil
Jaymann wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:47 pm
That is certainly a possibility, but there is a major difference from 2020. The Democrats will be in possession of the White House, and if they actually win the election could refuse to be dislodged. The usurpers would be in a weaker position relative to the police and the military. Very likely it would be contested for years, be that in the courts or the streets or both. With the actual future of Democracy at stake, it is just possible the Democrats would grow a spine.
Joe Biden doesen't have the balls to do what he needs to to save his, and the Democrats hide in 22 or 24. What I think he would need to do is bring all the R's that gave tours and voted not to impeach trump in the face of overwhelming odds up on charges, have them arrested and removed from the senate . Start investigating the SC and really tear the R's open legally. Just pour shit tons of money into every aspect of the way they govern. Deal with the GOP like RICO dealt with the mafia. Then blackmail or jail the ever living fuck out of everyone involved. Do like FDR did. Play ball or treason charges MFers.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Sun May 30, 2021 10:59 am
by Jaymann
Trying to out-Nazi the Nazis won't save democracy.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Sun May 30, 2021 11:53 am
by malchior
Jaymann wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 10:59 am
Trying to out-Nazi the Nazis won't save democracy.
While I generally agree, I was just reading a former law enforcement official saying Biden or some other near future US President might need to get unconstitutional or a little dirty under the table at some point. Essentially one party going off the rails means we have no way to legally restore balance.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Sun May 30, 2021 3:19 pm
by Drazzil
Jaymann wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 10:59 am
Trying to out-Nazi the Nazis won't save democracy.
Everything but the blackmail part at the end is completely legal and constitutional. And besides constitutions only work if both sides respect it. ALSO I would really rather live in a country where the lawfully elected president did what he had to constitutionally or not to protect the people, instead of handing the country over to a bunch of nazis.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Posted: Mon May 31, 2021 2:06 pm
by Drazzil
Jaymann wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 10:59 am
Trying to out-Nazi the Nazis won't save democracy.
Truth told? This country is dead if we don't start doing extra constitutional things and soon. Faced between a choice between a government that abides by the "rules" and a functional country in which I could make a reasonable assumption of a roof over my head, food in the fridge and full employment, I know which I'm choosing.
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Jaymann wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 10:59 am
Trying to out-Nazi the Nazis won't save democracy.
Truth told? This country is dead if we don't start doing extra constitutional things and soon. Faced between a choice between a government that abides by the "rules" and a functional country in which I could make a reasonable assumption of a roof over my head, food in the fridge and full employment, I know which I'm choosing.
It's difficult to treat you seriously if you talk this way, but I'll give it a shot:
Who do you think wins if it comes down to a contest of which side can push its supporters further into extra-Constitutional acts, including violence?
Or are you just going with "cleansing bloodbath" here?
Re: It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future
Jaymann wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 10:59 am
Trying to out-Nazi the Nazis won't save democracy.
Truth told? This country is dead if we don't start doing extra constitutional things and soon. Faced between a choice between a government that abides by the "rules" and a functional country in which I could make a reasonable assumption of a roof over my head, food in the fridge and full employment, I know which I'm choosing.
It's difficult to treat you seriously if you talk this way, but I'll give it a shot:
Who do you think wins if it comes down to a contest of which side can push its supporters further into extra-Constitutional acts, including violence?
Or are you just going with "cleansing bloodbath" here?
Spoiler:
Initally? The right will totally dominate, but after a while? Things get a little more iffy. No group will stand for getting killed openly for long. Also I'm not just talking about violence. I'm talking about legal measures first. Aggressive measures at first, but totally legal. Arresting every member of the house and senate that planned Jan 6 or then voted against a commission later. Arresting those fuckers for treason, because what they did *was* treason. That'd be a good start. Using the DOJ as a tool to investigate the wrongdoings of the party and then arrest them would be another tactic. Unroll them with RICO. The entire R organization is by this point a criminal conspiracy. Dem's are just afraid to dig.
Of course this sounds drastic, but wringing our hands and doing nothing will make it worse. The longer we wring our hands the worse this will get. The more we give the more the other side will take. You think that Biden would be the first to do this? Nah. Johnson was a hell of a blackmailer. He got stuff done, cause nothing was off the table for him.
You don't want to take me seriously? Fine. Don't take me seriously. I'll try and fly by in 22 or 24 before the internet goes down, and I burn to death in my apartment building or get shot in the street by the fourth Reich, and post a big fat "I told you so". Assuming the internet is still a thing.
PS: The constitution was written by rich white slaveowners, for rich white slaveowners. It's always been a deeply flawed document, and now it's nothing more then a very old, very revered piece of toliet paper. The other side has already realized this. How long are we going to take to catch up? Once we deal with the problems that are literally going to kill America, or will cause America to kill us, then we can talk about a new one. Till then? Lets just deal with the shit heap we have already.
Sorry guys. Got a bit unhinged there. We need to do brave drastic things now, or we will have to do unconstitutional things later. Heres the thing: In 2024 What are the Democrats going to do if the states refuse to certify and the SC says this is legal? The Dems will either have to say, Nah, we are ignoring the SC and the Senate, they're illegitimate (bad) or We are just going to quietly go into the night (worse). This is the end game, there is no other.
)