Octopus Overlords

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:03 pm**

The Senate is set this week to pass one of the largest industrial bills in U.S. history to bulk up the nation’s technology manufacturing in an effort to match competition from China.

The bill, expected to easily clear the upper chamber with support from Republicans and Democrats, includes tens of billions of dollars for scientific research, subsidies for chipmakers and robot makers, and an overhaul of the National Science Foundation.

The scope of the bill, the final product of at least six Senate committees and weeks of debate, reflects the many fronts in the U.S.-China rivalry and offers a rare glimpse at bipartisanship for legislation to counter Beijing’s economic and military expansion.

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:14 pm**

All it takes is one word from Trump to sink this though. Will twitter or facebook benefit from this? If so, it's screwed. He's bitter.

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:26 pm**

The bitcoin miner lobby will help push this through - need a domestic source for their video cards!

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:36 pm**

This has the potential to be a major boon to the sciences. The bill would almost double the budget of NSF, which provides funding to many of the non-health related scientists (like me!).

Though they still will probably reject all my grant proposals

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 2:13 pm**

By the time any of this starts producing it won't be needed. It will line the pockets of VC and other investors when the upstart US chipmakers and robotics companies get sold to the big boys.

The NSF portion is intriguing but I'd need to see details to be comfortable.

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 5:30 pm**

This has to be the weirdest bill in years. No is really talking about it, the NYT's multiple stories didn't even have the name of the bill in the stories, and they didn't talk about the fact that they had to load it up with all sorts of giveaways. It was aimed at building a semiconductor capability but that got watered down into a science 'infrastructure bill' because the House was against it as a giveaway to the VCs mentioned above. And still it's fate in the House is unknown.

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 6:23 pm**

The right incentive? Ah, tell the rich people it will help them make more money.

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 6:38 pm**

Can we try some demand-side economics for a change? It's all going to roll up, anyway.

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:05 pm**

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:15 pm**

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 6:23 pmThe right incentive? Ah, tell the rich people it will help them make more money.

Well, that never hurts, of course, but I suspect the magic word in this particular bill is "China."

The parties don't agree on much, but one of the few things they do see eye to eye on is that we must not fall too far behind our neighbors across the Pacific.

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:17 pm**

Despite the fact that we certainly helped create the monster. 18% of the exports come here.

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:11 pm**

Little Raven wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:15 pm The parties don't agree on much, but one of the few things they do see eye to eye on is that we must not fall too far behind our neighbors across the Pacific.

One of the sides (well, both to some degree) feel this way because of... money. If China wasn't a threat to our profits, this wouldn't have happened.

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:16 pm**

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:11 pm
Little Raven wrote: ↑Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:15 pm The parties don't agree on much, but one of the few things they do see eye to eye on is that we must not fall too far behind our neighbors across the Pacific.
One of the sides (well, both to some degree) feel this way because of... money. If China wasn't a threat to our profits, this wouldn't have happened.

Mostly true but there is a real national security threat as a kernel for this. The pandemic exposed we outsourced too much of our critical infrastructure...that was the starting point of this bill. To make it 'workable' or 'bipartisan' it was watered down into giveaways to the rich and political graft. It's almost like our leadership is hopelessly corrupt.

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:45 pm**

Almost! Good thing we can rely on our leaders to look out for our best interests, or I'd have political anxiety!

Posted: **Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:25 pm**

I think they prefer to be called "rulers" now.

Posted: **Wed Jun 16, 2021 7:42 pm**

More proof that cooperation is possible.

Some lawmakers are trying to stop 144 U.S. cities from losing their designations as “metropolitan areas” as the federal government updates its standards, doubling the minimum number of residents required in a city’s urban core to 100,000 people.

Sens. John Thune, a Republican from South Dakota, and Mark Kelly, a Democrat from Arizona, introduced legislation Tuesday that would stop the Office of Budget and Management from making the change.

Under the federal government’s proposal, a metro area would need double the 50,000-person threshold that has been in place for the past 70 years to count as a metropolitan statistical area. Cities losing this status, with core populations of 50,000 to 99,000 people, would become “micropolitan” statistical areas instead.

The lawmakers said the downgrade would cause real harm, preventing urban areas from getting designated federal funding and making them less attractive for economic development.

Posted: **Wed Jun 16, 2021 7:52 pm**

We might also get a super watered down infrastructure bill that is unpaid for. The best governance!

Posted: **Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:45 pm**

Hey, the Senate voted unanimously to make Juneteenth a national holiday. When's the last time they got 100% agreement on anything?

Posted: **Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:52 pm**

Kraken wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:45 pm Hey, the Senate voted unanimously to make Juneteenth a national holiday. When's the last time they got 100% agreement on anything?

It was unanimous consent and no one objected unlike last year when Ron Johnson did. That's something but they importantly didn't vote *for* it. No one is going to hang it around their neck.

Posted: **Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:03 pm**

Well, 14 representatives did.

Posted: **Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:38 pm**

"Let's call an ace and ace."

Who the hell says that? Pure dog whistle.

Posted: **Thu Jun 17, 2021 2:06 am**

It's not like he really needed a dog whistle.

Posted: **Thu Jun 17, 2021 7:44 am**

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:38 pm "Let's call an ace and ace."

Who the hell says that? Pure dog whistle.

Yeah that was fucking absurd, obvious, and obnoxious.

Posted: **Thu Jun 17, 2021 8:14 am**

Unagi wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 7:44 am
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:38 pm "Let's call an ace and ace."

Who the hell says that? Pure dog whistle.
Yeah that was fucking absurd, obvious, and obnoxious.

We live in an absurd time in an absurd nation.

Posted: **Thu Jun 17, 2021 9:23 am**

The only reason I know Spade is a slur is because of an SNL skit from my youth with Chevy Chase and Richard Pryor. I have never heard used that way, ever, but I have mindful ever since and always cringed hearing "calling a spade a spade" based on that skit. It felt like it was rooted in whatever it was Pryor and Chase were doing in that job interview skit. Reading that link, I've never heard most of the words used as slurs. I wouldn't begin to know that they would be offensive if it they weren't used obviously as such.

Posted: **Thu Jun 17, 2021 10:53 am**

malchior wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 7:52 pm We might also get a super watered down infrastructure bill that is unpaid for. The best governance!

Ya think?

Take the surface transportation bills: $547b over five years, that passed with only one GOP vote in favor.

That might seem like a lot, but it's just a re-authorization of existing spending. It doesn't authorize a single cent of new maintenance and upkeep – it just continues the existing level of spending. Without it, America would stop maintaining its infrastructure altogether.

In other words, the entire GOP caucus (except Brian Fitzpatrick, R-PA) voted to zero out America's infrastructure maintenance programs for the next five years.

Posted: **Tue Jun 22, 2021 8:24 am**

Now that some time has passed, some criticism of the "China bill" aka the Endless Frontier Act has been published from National Review and Vox including some introspection about the process that led to the bill being watered down like the infrastructure bill is currently undergoing.

My quick take is there is a real possibility that McConnell and some of the more devious Republicans have realized that letting some bills get through takes pressure off them. They are aligning what they get with two important goals: enabling their messaging and protecting wealth. On the Endless Frontier Act they have a fake get strong on China message and also paid some rents to money interests.

And by passing a infrastructure bill, I suspect it'll be how they will be able to invest in the country without raising taxes. They'll minimize that they are putting it on the COVID bills credit card. I just heard a Republican describe how it was paid for with left over money from COVID. That isn't "paid for". I also don't think it is a coincidence that all the inflation talk receded with the threat against the corporate tax rate which plays on the second goal above and protects wealth.

Posted: **Wed Jul 28, 2021 4:52 pm**

The bipartisan infrastructure high wire act is now in full flight. Let's see how this pans out.

Sinema made noise she'd undercut the balance of the Biden plan (in the reconciliation bill) and the House doesn't have enough votes (probably) to pass the Senate bipartisan bill without the reconciliation bill. At 1.2T it probably is too small to close the output gap on its own so it'd be likely ideal to get both through at some middle ground number of 3.5T across both bills.

Posted: **Thu Jul 29, 2021 3:37 pm**

This is what "bipartisanship" gets us. $0 for clean energy tax credits. $0 for R&D. Increased funding? Subsidies for polluters.

Posted: **Tue Aug 10, 2021 7:19 pm**

Bipartisanship: (feebly) I'm not dead!
Progressives: (surprised) What?
Bipartisanship: I'm not dead!
Moscow Mitch: 'Ere! 'E says 'e's not dead!
Progressives: Yes he is.
Bipartisanship: I'm not!
Moscow Mitch: 'E isn't?
Progressives: Well... he will be soon-- he's very ill...
Bipartisanship: I'm getting better!
Progressives: No you're not, you'll be stone dead in a moment.

House progressives urge Democratic leadership to pair spending packages — or risk their votes

Note: Not seriously suggesting that the death of bipartisanship is the responsibility of the progressive left, but FFS . . . If both parties can't get behind passing this infrastructure bill without trying to tie it to their other favorite projects and causes, we are well and truly hosed.

Agree on what you can agree on. Focus on that and move forward.

Posted: **Tue Aug 10, 2021 7:21 pm**

The rest of the spending will come in via reconciliation. That’s because the Republicans won’t negotiate. You can’t when you stand mostly for “sticking’ it to the libs.”

Posted: **Tue Aug 10, 2021 7:38 pm**

Kurth wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 7:19 pm Bipartisanship: (feebly) I'm not dead!
Progressives: (surprised) What?
Bipartisanship: I'm not dead!
Moscow Mitch: 'Ere! 'E says 'e's not dead!
Progressives: Yes he is.
Bipartisanship: I'm not!
Moscow Mitch: 'E isn't?
Progressives: Well... he will be soon-- he's very ill...
Bipartisanship: I'm getting better!
Progressives: No you're not, you'll be stone dead in a moment.

House progressives urge Democratic leadership to pair spending packages — or risk their votes

Note: Not seriously suggesting that the death of bipartisanship is the responsibility of the progressive left, but FFS . . . If both parties can't get behind passing this infrastructure bill without trying to tie it to their other favorite projects and causes, we are well and truly hosed.

Agree on what you can agree on. Focus on that and move forward.

This was always the risk. Several Democrats said they had to be paired and that was the Biden strategy all along. This is not new. The infrastructure bill isn't all that controversial and they dashed all the "progressive" stuff. It was supposed to be clean so the Republicans wouldn't be tied to icky things like helping regular people. It also happens to be way too small to close our huge output gap from the pandemic. It is a relatively small spend spread out over nearly a decade. It's a side show being marketed as the main show.

The reconciliation package is $3.5T next year and mostly closes the output gap. Though it probably won't be $3.5T. My guess is Manchin/Sinema et. al. widdle it down just shy of $3T. The bills can't pass without each other because they only have a 4 vote margin in the House for both and you need every Democrat in the Senate to get the reconciliation bill across. This has been a very complicated situation and it could collapse at any moment. But it probably won't. Even the hapless Democrats know it'd be a political calamity if it falls apart now. Especially with the Republicans off the hook.

I suspect this is all kabuki theater. The fix is in and this will get done but the progressives feel a need to extract some publicity out of it. It is even possibly a fig leaf to the progressives with the moderates being a foil. Though I don't think there is a ton of profit in riffs on the usual Democrats in disarray B plot.

Posted: **Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:00 pm**

That may be the first malchior post that actually made me feel better about something!

Posted: **Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:20 pm**

Fair. That is all just an educated read based on lots of tracking this but it seems like the most likely outcome. It's dumb political theater that strokes the egos of people like Manchin but it is where we are. I mean nothing says we have a solid handle on things like a 8-9 month budgeting process. If I'm wrong then things are really off the rails. We'll know because the markets will panic, etc.

Posted: **Tue Aug 10, 2021 10:13 pm**

I'll say that I get some of the Republican's complaints - that it isn't really a negotiation/compromise if the Democrats are just going to pass the rest separately (although, if anything, they should be grateful of the opportunity to vote yes for this bill and no for the reconciliation bill and give themselves the appearance of being moderates - we can spend on infrastructure, but not on all this wasteful liberal spending.).

If Republicans in the House were smart, they (or at least enough of them to ensure passage) would also support the bill, thus giving the progressives less leverage when it comes to the reconciliation bill and it would be seen as a loss for them if the bipartisan bill passes without their support.

Posted: **Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:03 am**

malchior wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:20 pm Fair. That is all just an educated read based on lots of tracking this but it seems like the most likely outcome. It's dumb political theater that strokes the egos of people like Manchin but it is where we are. I mean nothing says we have a solid handle on things like a 8-9 month budgeting process. If I'm wrong then things are really off the rails. We'll know because the markets will panic, etc.

I don't think that this is just kabuki theatre. The progressives have real leverage here, stemming from the fact that the infrastructure bill is nice but not a big deal to them, but the Democratic Senate moderates (esp. Manchin and Sinema) really *need* the infrastructure bill, because they need a high profile bipartisan win so that they can run for reelection on "see? Bipartisanship can still work as long as you return responsible people like me to the Senate".

So, it makes sense to use that leverage to get some commitments that Manchin, Sinema et al won't fuck them on the reconciliation bill. Ultimately I think it's more likely than not that both bills pass, but the margin for error is so thin (and there are some pretty dumb people involved) that it's not certain.

Posted: **Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:03 am**

Sure it totally could fall apart and yeah some really politically stupid people are involved. My take is that the WH is managing this somewhat tightly. They have this super fragile coalition and I think this is at minimum a bit choreographed but possibly a lot. One of the dynamics at play here I think is they have to give multiple constituencies "wins" but not too much credit or the ecosystem falls out of balance. That's what I mean about the theater. It is managed as much as these things can be. It's probably frustrating to everyone when Manchin or AOC goes on tv or another interview to spin up support. They are totally trying to use their leverage to extract wins.

Edit: To expand my thinking a bit, this ultimately is the Democrats Achilles heel here. They are a fragile coalition versus a party normed on total allegiance. The GOP has multiple opportunities to disrupt. The most straightforward due to the broken Senate is to get in the ears of Manchin or Sinema. Maybe they influenced Manchin to make that recent uninformed statement about inflation. Or convinced them that all of this is unaffordable or got the donors to apply pressure. And the GOP just beats on them trying to unbalance the Democratic coalition because they often can simply obstruct/delay and that triggers reactions from the progressive side that ultimately help the GOP.

Defiant wrote: ↑Tue Aug 10, 2021 10:13 pmIf Republicans in the House were smart, they (or at least enough of them to ensure passage) would also support the bill, thus giving the progressives less leverage when it comes to the reconciliation bill and it would be seen as a loss for them if the bipartisan bill passes without their support.

This is where luckily the GOP has a major disadvantage. Trump is a moron and doesn't like that Biden might get 'infrastructure week' headlines that he didn't get. He said he'd withhold endorsements from people who voted for this. The McConnell faction just said, "We don't care". However, it is working in the House and he is leading the House Republicans off a cliff instead of putting pressure on the Democrats.

Posted: **Wed Aug 11, 2021 8:20 am**

And it moves forward. Now it'll go to committees to hammer out the spending details. Manchin is making the same dumb noise about overheating. I'd have more respect if he said something along the lines of this 'risking distorting' the marketplace but it is seen as more serious to complain about inflation. Because that is what "serious" people do. I still think it'll shrink 10-20% to give the moderates a win while still being ambitious enough to give the progressives some points.

Personally I'm just hoping for a big EV credit and some SALT relief next year. I'm pretty sure on the former. I have a feeling we'll get some on the latter or else no one from NJ will vote for it. I've been getting properly screwed over by the tax code since the Trump tax reform changes. It'd be nice if I got a little back for a change and brought my federal tax burden back under current levels of 19 - 20%.

Posted: **Wed Aug 11, 2021 10:42 am**

malchior wrote: ↑Wed Aug 11, 2021 8:20 am Personally I'm just hoping for a big EV credit and some SALT relief next year. I'm pretty sure on the former. I have a feeling we'll get some on the latter or else no one from NJ will vote for it. I've been getting properly screwed over by the tax code since the Trump tax reform changes. It'd be nice if I got a little back for a change and brought my federal tax burden back under current levels of 19 - 20%.

I'm hoping for robust in-home elder-care support...speaking as a child-free near-elder. When we decided not to reproduce, as future-Wife and I each did independently while still in our teens, I figured the government would have this worked out by now. Instead it's the 11th hour and this is going to be the one chance to do it.

Posted: **Wed Aug 11, 2021 11:15 am**

As predictable as the rain, I've already heard the beginning of the media greek chorus singing about how the 'Senate is not broken'. Hopefully we'll have a tweet of a clip of the same soon to put a point on this observation. I don't think we'll have to wait long for the counter cases to appear.

Octopus Overlords

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