Octopus Overlords

Is changing.....fast.

On average, Americans' political party preferences in 2021 looked similar to prior years, with slightly more U.S. adults identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic (46%) than identified as Republicans or leaned Republican (43%).

However, the general stability for the full-year average obscures a dramatic shift over the course of 2021, from a nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter to a rare five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter.

I have to assume this is mostly due to polling in general becoming less reliable - because the alternative is terrifying. I realize Biden isn't exactly raising the roof, but a 14 point swing towards Republicans?!?

I'm a Republican now.

You have to ask yourself what type of person would not only answer a phone call from a pollster but also stay on the phone and answer questions.

Little Raven wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:52 pm Is changing.....fast.

On average, Americans' political party preferences in 2021 looked similar to prior years, with slightly more U.S. adults identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic (46%) than identified as Republicans or leaned Republican (43%).

However, the general stability for the full-year average obscures a dramatic shift over the course of 2021, from a nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter to a rare five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter.

I have to assume this is mostly due to polling in general becoming less reliable - because the alternative is terrifying. I realize Biden isn't exactly raising the roof, but a 14 point swing towards Republicans?!?

Not really surprising - inflation (which many people have never serious experienced), high gas prices/heating costs, covid tiredness, a little of Afghanistan incompetence to top it off. The thing people forget is unemployment hits only a portion of the population, inflation hits everyone. Plus the Republicans fight the culture wars much better than the Democrats do (see Va governor race). It's not hard for me to believe this swing.

You're forgetting the impact of the politics that the Democrats are playing so badly. It has a terrible effect on morale. If you're a Democrat right now you feel like the the kid who keeps getting beat up for milk money - and the bully is the Superintendent's son. You just keep taking it, nothing stops it, the teachers just shrug, and the asshole keeps laughing.

That makes people walk away.

Democrats swept into power on promises that they can't keep. A sizeable minority of Americans think those policies are communist, and categorically oppose them. The majority who do support them just see failure.

Also, Democrats are prolonging the pandemic by refusing to stop talking about it, when most Americans don't care anymore. Nobody likes Gloomy Gus.

But mostly, I think Blackhawk's right -- Americans prefer the bully to the kid getting beaten up for lunch money. Republicans play to win while Democrats wring their hands.

gilraen wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:49 pm You have to ask yourself what type of person would not only answer a phone call from a pollster but also stay on the phone and answer questions.

As someone who is not democrat, I do not take polls.

dbt1949 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:47 pm I'm a Republican now.

I'm Republican.

UsulofDoom wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:23 am

gilraen wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:49 pm You have to ask yourself what type of person would not only answer a phone call from a pollster but also stay on the phone and answer questions.

As someone who is not democrat, I do not take poles.

No one is judging here...

UsulofDoom wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:23 am

gilraen wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:49 pm You have to ask yourself what type of person would not only answer a phone call from a pollster but also stay on the phone and answer questions.

As someone who is not democrat, I do not take poles.

The people of Poland rejoice.

UsulofDoom wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:23 am I do not take poles.

So….many….too much! Can’t…AAAAAUUUUGGHHHHH!!!

gilraen wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:49 pm You have to ask yourself what type of person would not only answer a phone call from a pollster but also stay on the phone and answer questions.

I’ve said that more than a few times on here before. But it suddenly struck me when I read that, a pretty clear and obvious answer: people that vote

tl/dr the article, but I think rather than people swapping to the opposite affiliation, one likely possibility is that as each side is less/more enthused, Democratic-leaners are less likely to identify as Democrat and more likely to identify as independent, while Republican-leaners are more likely to identify as Republican as opposed to independent.

gilraen wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:49 pm You have to ask yourself what type of person would not only answer a phone call from a pollster but also stay on the phone and answer questions.

I do. The fun part is that I have Ooma and the phone number I signed up with is in Wisconsin and then changed to a local number. So the pollsters are frequently asking about Wisconsin specific issues. I point out I don't know anymore (haven't lived there in nearly a decade), but they are happy to record my answers most times.

Defiant wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 9:24 am tl/dr the article, but I think rather than people swapping to the opposite affiliation, one likely possibility is that as each side is less/more enthused, Democratic-leaners are less likely to identify as Democrat and more likely to identify as independent, while Republican-leaners are more likely to identify as Republican as opposed to independent.

The initial post is confusing IMO. This isn’t really about party affiliation, but party preference. All you have here is independents moving towards Republicans as they have moved towards Democrats in the part. Pure Democrats and Republicans are pretty much staying out, as they usually do.

And there are plenty of people who identify as Republicans who either voted against Trump, or simply didn't vote out of conscience.

Can I both not have expected but not be surprised? I was surprised to find out how many actively or passively support Trump politics. The amount of people who identify as republican beyond that has to be more a bit more. Then you factor in the people who answer polls and the people disaffected by the last two years and I can see a shift to a narrow majority. I don't have to like it but then I've been in doom and gloom mode for most of the last 8+ years. Biden's administration gave me a glimmer of hope of the first three or more months and then, not so much. I'll still take what we got now to alternative 7 days and twice on Sunday, but this is not good. And enough democrats believe the solution is to be more progressive. That's not going to help "centrists" paying more for everything while trying to play by COVID rules that aren't actually being messaged. Forget the state of foreign policy, which hasn't improved from the toilet it started draining five years ago.

I'll still not vote republican, because I have to, not because of anything the democrats are doing, in particular, while I sit and listen to plenty of folks bash Biden and our governor/sec of state and ignoring the actual law makers.

Grifman wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 9:40 am

Defiant wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 9:24 am tl/dr the article, but I think rather than people swapping to the opposite affiliation, one likely possibility is that as each side is less/more enthused, Democratic-leaners are less likely to identify as Democrat and more likely to identify as independent, while Republican-leaners are more likely to identify as Republican as opposed to independent.

The initial post is confusing IMO. This isn’t really about party affiliation, but party preference. All you have here is independents moving towards Republicans as they have moved towards Democrats in the part. Pure Democrats and Republicans are pretty much staying out, as they usually do.

And note that that overall trend is against both Democrats and Republicans with growing independents.

Seems to me this is the natural advantage of having no discernable platform and nothing you're actually trying to accomplish other than "stigginit".

Democrats promised big and delivered small, which looks like a loss. GOP promise literally nothing, block any progress, then claims victory when that progress is blocked. And, frankly, they're far better at telling that story then Dems are at communicating even the smallest win.

We've has somehow settled into this expectation that Dems have to deliver big to be considered successful, while the GOP simply has to continue to be obstructionists and win the moronic culture wars. Given those expectations, it's no surprise at all that conservatives are winning.

Skinypupy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:21 am Seems to me this is the natural advantage of having no discernable platform and nothing you're actually trying to accomplish other than "stigginit".

Democrats promised big and delivered small, which looks like a loss. GOP promise literally nothing, block any progress, then claims victory when that progress is blocked. And, frankly, they're far better at telling that story then Dems are at communicating even the smallest win.

We've has somehow settled into this expectation that Dems have to deliver big to be considered successful, while the GOP simply has to continue to be obstructionists and win the moronic culture wars. Given those expectations, it's no surprise at all that conservatives are winning.

If that were the case, the Democratic party wouldn't "control" both houses of Congress and the presidency.

The Democratic party didn't deliver. Thanks, Manchin/Sinema.

Skinypupy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:21 am GOP promise literally nothing

That flat out wrong. It's just that there is no memory for their promises. "Repeal and Replace" We have all the fixes for the medical right here. We're the best at cyber. And cyber security falls to an all time low. No more debt. There for every cost increase there must be twice as much cost cutting. Debt rises faster than any time in history. Build a wall. Spend more on a wall than at any time but increase the building of a wall at a no real applicable pace. This is the Infrastructure presidency. Literally no new infrastructure spending in four years. No one is harder on Putin. How can we make Putin get more hard than sucking him off whenever he intimates he needs it?

Of course, they did promise to deliver the Supreme Court and they did even better than promised. They wanted one Federalist" judge that should have Obama's and they got three. I still contend that is how Trump won in 2016 and democrats let is happen. McConnell still basks in that delivery.

LordMortis wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:32 am No one is harder on Putin. How can we make Putin get more hard than sucking him off whenever he intimates he needs it?

This deserves applause.

noxiousdog wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:00 am And note that that overall trend is against both Democrats and Republicans with growing independents.

It won't happen, but this would be an excellent time for a third party to step up, something that trims off the extremes of both parties, the perfect-world-no-compromise stupidity of certain Democrats and the overthrow-the-government of some Republicans. Get the most moderate half of the Ds and the most moderate half of the Rs and have them defect together - they'll outnumber the existing parties 2-1.

It's unlikely, but it would be the one solution that might actually work.

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:24 am

noxiousdog wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:00 am And note that that overall trend is against both Democrats and Republicans with growing independents.

It won't happen, but this would be an excellent time for a third party to step up, something that trims off the extremes of both parties, the perfect-world-no-compromise stupidity of certain Democrats and the overthrow-the-government of some Republicans. Get the most moderate half of the Ds and the most moderate half of the Rs and have them defect together - they'll outnumber the existing parties 2-1.

It's unlikely, but it would be the one solution that might actually work.

It's not about ideology, but the ability to execute said ideology.

Several times I have taken one of them online quizzes for "what political party are you" and the answer always comes up Libertarian. (no google, not librarian) but then I go to a libertarian site and read about it, and what up with libertarians and what they support and I am like, "No thank you" I am good on some of it, but then, its just a bit too much.

so then I tried looking at the green party, and I'm like, not everything is about the environment, Karen. Sure, I want to support the environment, but you guys are obsessed.


So I guess I am stuck on independent. For all non presidential races I try and choose one of the non R or D candidates, to try and promote more 3rd party participation. But presidential, I'm usually stuck voting against somebody, instead of for somebody. so thats tough.

I toyed with switching from I to D when Biden took office amidst hope and good feelings. The bad man was gone, the vaccines were coming and the pandemic was on the run, and he was pushing transformative social legislation. I vote D most of the time anyway, so why not cast my lot?

Now that they're going down in flames I'm glad I didn't do it. I'll still caucus with the D's, but I like being able to ask for either ballot in the primaries. Sometimes I do take the red one and vote strategically.

gilraen wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:49 pm You have to ask yourself what type of person would not only answer a phone call from a pollster but also stay on the phone and answer questions.

Funny you should ask that. I've been asking myself that a lot over the last couple of years as we've seen lots of strange and seemingly inaccurate forecasts based on polling.

Then, last night, I got a call from a survey company called, Dynata. The call sounded like standard telemarketing at first, but then I realized it was a political survey, and I decided to stick it out to see how painful it would be.

The answer . . . VERY.

The survey took forever. The questioner had such a thick accent, there was a real communication barrier. And at least half the questions were beyond stupid. "Do you feel Oregon is on the right track, yes or no?" Like, Oregon, the state? It's a big freaking place. Are we talking Portland? Eastern Oregon? The Coast? How is there any value in a question like that?

Anyway, it lasted at least 20 minutes, but if felt like an hour.

My takeaway is that I will not subject myself to that kind of crap again. And, I agree with you, gilraen, I'm not sure what kind of person would.

Kurth wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:41 am My takeaway is that I will not subject myself to that kind of crap again. And, I agree with you, gilraen, I'm not sure what kind of person would.

Old people. We (collectively; not me) answer calls from unknown numbers, are polite to the callers, and may even like to chat. I suspect that phone polls skew old.

Kraken wrote:I toyed with switching from I to D when Biden took office amidst hope and good feelings.

I switched from I to D because morally I felt staying Independent implied that I would sometimes vote Republican, something which I don't see myself ever doing again. My goal was to distance myself as far away as possible.

Strategically your decision was probably the right one, but I had 25 years of voting R to make up for so my conscience got the better of me.

The Ds are not owed my vote and when they treat me like they are it pushes me away from them. Even so, I'm functionally a democrat at this point as I feel compelled to vote and even do so in the D primary where my vote actually counts and I can't foresee the situation where I vote for an R. I know it exists and things could change in the future but I still can't see that path.

LordMortis wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:15 am The Ds are not owed my vote and when they treat me like they are it pushes me away from them. Even so, I'm functionally a democrat at this point as I feel compelled to vote and even do so in the D primary where my vote actually counts and I can't foresee the situation where I vote for an R. I know it exists and things could change in the future but I still can't see that path.

R strategy = They're coming for your family, your money, your property, and your freedom. We will stop them.

D strategy = Yeah we're dysfunctional but who else are you going to vote for?

Defining the 21st Century Democratic Party

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:24 am D strategy = Yeah we're dysfunctional but who else are you going to vote for?

Marketing works, who woulda thunk?


(Yes, disinformation campaigns are a form of marketing)

I was reading this morning about Pence's latest statements in front of the Federalist Society:

President Trump is wrong. I had no right to overturn the election.

The analysis I'm seeing, right or wrong, is that this is Pence beginning to position himself for a presidential bid in 2024.

I hate Pence. He's a dunce who'd like to make this country into a Christian theocracy. But there's no way to accurately convey just how much I'd rather have him in office than Trump. As much as I dislike Pence, he's not the threat to this country that Trump is.

It got me thinking: Maybe the Never Trumpers shouldn't be limited to conservatives and refugees from the GOP. What if enough democrats switched party in order to vote in the GOP primary and tip the scales in favor of anyone who's not Trump? I honestly wouldn't even care if doing so might somehow help the GOP win the presidency, so long as it wasn't Trump.

Plus, my hunch is that if Trump lost the GOP nomination, he'd run anyway, which would pretty much guarantee a democratic win. But that's not the point. The point is, we can NEVER let Trump regain the Presidency of the United States.

Kurth wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 5:27 pm we can NEVER let Trump regain the Presidency of the United States.

We had that opportunity, and wasted it.

Kurth wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 5:27 pm I hate Pence. He's a dunce who'd like to make this country into a Christian theocracy. But there's no way to accurately convey just how much I'd rather have him in office than Trump. As much as I dislike Pence, he's not the threat to this country that Trump is.

+1. I wouldn't vote for him. I'd rage against his decision making. I'd rage against his theocratic approach. But I'd wager he'd be working for the US. and not for himself and not for the oligarchs and not be a security risk and...

Along the same lines, and maybe even more so, shouldn’t all the registered Democrats in Wyoming switch parties in order to vote in the Cheney/Hageman primary? Most of other Republicans who voted to impeach or imposed Trump are bowing out rather than run for reelection. In Wyoming, Cheney is vowing to stand for reelection, even after the GOP censured her today and made Hageman its presumptive nominee.

I know there aren’t all that many Democrats in Wyoming (27% of the vote from what I see), but I have to imagine if they all held their nose on other ideological issues and got behind Cheney, there would be enough of them to tip the balance.

It seems like the only thing they really could do to make their vote count for something in Wyoming.

This is why I'm an independent. In MA, we have open primaries. I can take whichever ballot I want. Our governor's race will feature a spectrum of Democrats ranging from centrist (Healey, the front runner) to farther left. Any one of them is acceptable to me. On the R side, we'll have a full-throated, well-funded trumper (Geoff Diehl) vs. an unknown Charlie Baker-style moderate businessman. Unless I get enthused about one of the lefty "challenger" D's, I'm likely to take the R ballot and vote against Diehl. Even though Diehl would get slaughtered in November, I don't even want to see his name on the ballot.

Of course there will be other considerations than the marquee governor's race and my decision will be more complicated than I just laid out, but I like having the option to vote strategically.

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 5:31 pm

Kurth wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 5:27 pm we can NEVER let Trump regain the Presidency of the United States.

We had that opportunity, and wasted it.

The other danger is electing some “not trump” and realizing too late they are simply smarter than trump, willing, and able to take full advantage of the weaknesses trump exposed.

Remus West wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 11:24 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 5:31 pm

Kurth wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 5:27 pm we can NEVER let Trump regain the Presidency of the United States.

We had that opportunity, and wasted it.

The other danger is electing some “not trump” and realizing too late they are simply smarter than trump, willing, and able to take full advantage of the weaknesses trump exposed.

This isn’t a thing as far as I am concerned. I’m not saying Trump is the only threat out there, but he’s a uniquely dangerous threat. Anyone but Trump. Seriously, anyone (even Desantis - that’s how far I am in the NEVER Trump camp).