1st Republican debate of 2023-24

[Kurth]

Thought experiment: If you were given two options, which would you choose?

(1) Biden v. Trump with a 75% chance Biden wins; or
(2) Nikki Haley as the next POTUS

[Blackhawk]

25% chance of batshit insane vs 100% chance of insane bullshit?

[Kraken]

I like the odds on Biden. In fact, I like Biden. There, I said it.

[LawBeefaroni]

Thought experiment: If you were given two options, which would you choose?

(1) Biden v. Trump with a 75% chance Biden wins; or
(2) Nikki Haley as the next POTUS

As a thoight experiment, I'd take the 0% Trump option.

Haley gets us back to GWB or McC8n/Palin level of nonsense which is preferable to even a chance of Trump.

[LordMortis]

Thought experiment: If you were given two options, which would you choose?

(1) Biden v. Trump with a 75% chance Biden wins; or
(2) Nikki Haley as the next POTUS

As a thoight experiment, I'd take the 0% Trump option.

Haley gets us back to GWB or McC8n/Palin level of nonsense which is preferable to even a chance of Trump.

The whole train switch thing sees me taking 0% Trump. However, I beg to differ on the GOP going back to Palin GOP. Not with the current state of the GOP. Too many are off the rails and support for being off the rails is just too high. Just because she's not in Trump's ballpark, doesn't mean the extremists and radicals and grifters won't be push boundaries and succeeding under her. She did work in high levels in the Trump admin.

I like the odds on Biden. In fact, I like Biden. There, I said it.

I don't dislike him as much as I thought I would. He's come through in a pinch. I'd still prefer some unknown someone else. As mentioned before, Buttigeg has been a home run in Biden's administration. I'll take Biden over Whittmer though, which keeps getting floated. And after a few years Harris is still an unknown to me but I like her personality, as if that means much for the highest leader in the land. I need more of MTGs hatred of stupidity to make me feel good about Biden. She is a walking in praise of Biden billboard.

[malchior]

Thought experiment: If you were given two options, which would you choose?

(1) Biden v. Trump with a 75% chance Biden wins; or
(2) Nikki Haley as the next POTUS

As a thoight experiment, I'd take the 0% Trump option.

Haley gets us back to GWB or McC8n/Palin level of nonsense which is preferable to even a chance of Trump.

Most of this but I reckon the crazy level would be definitely higher.

I also have trouble evaluating the idea without having an idea of what Congress looks like.

[Kurth]

25% chance of batshit insane vs 100% chance of insane bullshit?

This feels to me like you think Trump and Nikki Haley are more or less equivalent. Am I getting you wrong here, and “batshit insane” is a more advanced level of insanity than “insane bullshit”?

[YellowKing]

I agree on taking 75% chance of Biden winning vs 100% Haley. She's no moderate, she just looks moderate in comparison to the extreme far right insanity on the stage with her. Once she was in office she would be completely under MAGA's sway, and we'd wind up with Trump 2.0 gender swap edition.

[stessier]

Haley was governor of SC from 2011-2017 and came to power thanks to Tea Party support. Many, many taxes were cut. It's not Trump, but it's not great either.

[malchior]

The problem ultimately is that any Republican administration means digging the hole that got us here deeper.

[Zaxxon]

The problem ultimately is that any Republican administration means digging the hole that got us here deeper.

Ding ding ding. The only 0% Trump option is a Democratic administration.

And even that won’t get us there until the GOP controls zero chambers of congress at the same time for some period long enough to force it to retool entirely. Something unlikely to ever happen again under the current system.

[Holman]

I think the audience, at times, demonstrated an interestingly sharp divide between GOP voters.

FWIW, the audience was largely made up of donors. They weren't the base and they weren't representative of any wider electorate.

[Blackhawk]

Haley has said, more than once, that "Don't say gay" doesn't go far enough. That's not someone I would willingly choose over 75% odds of something better.

[Unagi]

What is it that you think of as the 75% chance of being better ?

[Blackhawk]

Thought experiment: If you were given two options, which would you choose?

(1) Biden v. Trump with a 75% chance Biden wins; or
(2) Nikki Haley as the next POTUS

[Carpet_pissr]

Since I think that a second Trump term would be the de facto ‘ender of American democracy’, 25% chance of that happening is way too high.

Even 15% is probably too high for me.

[ImLawBoy]

Keep in mind the very real possibility that, if coupled with a R senate, having Haley in office could lead Thomas and Alito to retire so that their vacancies will be filled by 50 year old reactionaries that will lock up an extremely conservative SCOTUS for the foreseeable future.

[GreenGoo]

I like the odds on Biden. In fact, I like Biden. There, I said it.

There's nothing inherently wrong with Biden. He's certainly not the best or most effective president, but his heart is in the right place and he is trying to do right by the American people. Given the alternatives, he's a freaking Angel sent by God himself to pilot America into the future.

[LordMortis]

Keep in mind the very real possibility that, if coupled with a R senate, having Haley in office could lead Thomas and Alito to retire so that their vacancies will be filled by 50 year old reactionaries that will lock up an extremely conservative SCOTUS for the foreseeable future.

Oh, the SC (and by extension all of the federally appointed jurists) is first and foremost in my voting at the federal level. They're already mostly borqued through my nieces and nephews generation while I hear complaints about how Marxist socialist democrats are trying to ruin the them. I can't see the GOP getting another single vote of mine for any office until the Thomas, Roberts, and Alito are gone and their replacements aren't seated by malfeasance.

[Defiant]

Thought experiment: If you were given two options, which would you choose?

(1) Biden v. Trump with a 75% chance Biden wins; or
(2) Nikki Haley as the next POTUS

While Haley would probably have a decent foreign policy, and it's hard to tell how much the non-Trump candidates are pretending to be "Trumpian" to get votes from the base, pretty much any Republican would be terrible overall (they'll nominate right-wing justices, not veto Republican legislation, etc). Given this option, I would choose 75% Biden.

However, in reality, while I think Haley probably has a better chance than Trump to win (It's hard to know for sure), it probably wouldn't be that much bigger than Trump's chances (and definitely a lot lower than 100%), so in real life, I would prefer Haley win the primary.

[Holman]

While Haley would probably have a decent foreign policy, and it's hard to tell how much the non-Trump candidates are pretending to be "Trumpian" to get votes from the base, pretty much any Republican would be terrible overall (they'll nominate right-wing justices, not veto Republican legislation, etc). Given this option, I would choose 75% Biden.

That's just it. A 2024 that gives the White House to a Republican will almost certainly give the GOP a trifecta. And at that point, the agenda is driven from the rightward edge of Congress (meaning also the elimination of the filibuster), with the WH as a rubber stamp.

[El Guapo]

Thought experiment: If you were given two options, which would you choose?

(1) Biden v. Trump with a 75% chance Biden wins; or
(2) Nikki Haley as the next POTUS

While Haley would probably have a decent foreign policy, and it's hard to tell how much the non-Trump candidates are pretending to be "Trumpian" to get votes from the base, pretty much any Republican would be terrible overall (they'll nominate right-wing justices, not veto Republican legislation, etc). Given this option, I would choose 75% Biden.

However, in reality, while I think Haley probably has a better chance than Trump to win (It's hard to know for sure), it probably wouldn't be that much bigger than Trump's chances (and definitely a lot lower than 100%), so in real life, I would prefer Haley win the primary.

I agree. Obviously a lot of the question depends upon what you think the GOP would do under a Haley administration. At this point it seems like the GOP is so MAGA-fied that I think the odds that Haley does a lot of crazy authoritarian shit (and maybe invade Mexico?) seems fairly high. With that you probably take a 75% Biden chance over a 100% chance of Haley.

In a real world scenario, you obviously root for Haley to beat Trump in the primary. Even though I don't have a ton of faith in what a Haley administration would do, breaking the Trump fever in the GOP is a first step towards returning to a sane GOP.

[Kurth]

Thought experiment: If you were given two options, which would you choose?

(1) Biden v. Trump with a 75% chance Biden wins; or
(2) Nikki Haley as the next POTUS

While Haley would probably have a decent foreign policy, and it's hard to tell how much the non-Trump candidates are pretending to be "Trumpian" to get votes from the base, pretty much any Republican would be terrible overall (they'll nominate right-wing justices, not veto Republican legislation, etc). Given this option, I would choose 75% Biden.

However, in reality, while I think Haley probably has a better chance than Trump to win (It's hard to know for sure), it probably wouldn't be that much bigger than Trump's chances (and definitely a lot lower than 100%), so in real life, I would prefer Haley win the primary.

I agree. Obviously a lot of the question depends upon what you think the GOP would do under a Haley administration. At this point it seems like the GOP is so MAGA-fied that I think the odds that Haley does a lot of crazy authoritarian shit (and maybe invade Mexico?) seems fairly high. With that you probably take a 75% Biden chance over a 100% chance of Haley.

In a real world scenario, you obviously root for Haley to beat Trump in the primary. Even though I don't have a ton of faith in what a Haley administration would do, breaking the Trump fever in the GOP is a first step towards returning to a sane GOP.

For those picking 75% Biden, I'm curious if you think Haley would (1) try to subvert an election she lost; (2) encourage her followers to stage an insurrection; or (3) surround herself with people like Flynn, Giuliani, Powell, etc. who are batshit insane?

[ImLawBoy]

Thought experiment: If you were given two options, which would you choose?

(1) Biden v. Trump with a 75% chance Biden wins; or
(2) Nikki Haley as the next POTUS

While Haley would probably have a decent foreign policy, and it's hard to tell how much the non-Trump candidates are pretending to be "Trumpian" to get votes from the base, pretty much any Republican would be terrible overall (they'll nominate right-wing justices, not veto Republican legislation, etc). Given this option, I would choose 75% Biden.

However, in reality, while I think Haley probably has a better chance than Trump to win (It's hard to know for sure), it probably wouldn't be that much bigger than Trump's chances (and definitely a lot lower than 100%), so in real life, I would prefer Haley win the primary.

I agree. Obviously a lot of the question depends upon what you think the GOP would do under a Haley administration. At this point it seems like the GOP is so MAGA-fied that I think the odds that Haley does a lot of crazy authoritarian shit (and maybe invade Mexico?) seems fairly high. With that you probably take a 75% Biden chance over a 100% chance of Haley.

In a real world scenario, you obviously root for Haley to beat Trump in the primary. Even though I don't have a ton of faith in what a Haley administration would do, breaking the Trump fever in the GOP is a first step towards returning to a sane GOP.

For those picking 75% Biden, I'm curious if you think Haley would (1) try to subvert an election she lost; (2) encourage her followers to stage an insurrection; or (3) surround herself with people like Flynn, Giuliani, Powell, etc. who are batshit insane?

Any Republican winning right now, including Haley, runs a very high risk of locking in R control of the SCOTUS for decades and passing discriminatory laws against swathes of people. Let's say it's only a 75% chance of that happening - are you willing to take that 75% vs. 25% chance of Trump winning? It's not that Haley isn't preferable to Trump. It's that she's still a mind-blowingly bad alternative to Biden.

[Zarathud]

Haley will not return the GOP to sanity. She’ll give them cover to pass radical changes. Even Chris Christie would pass terrible laws, and he’s willing to call Trump out openly.

If the Republic ends with liberals protesting in the streets, at least people know we have to fight.

[Kurth]

Haley will not return the GOP to sanity. She’ll give them cover to pass radical changes. Even Chris Christie would pass terrible laws, and he’s willing to call Trump out openly.

If the Republic ends with liberals protesting in the streets, at least people know we have to fight.

Drazzil called. He wants his talking points back.

[Kurth]

Thought experiment: If you were given two options, which would you choose?

(1) Biden v. Trump with a 75% chance Biden wins; or
(2) Nikki Haley as the next POTUS

While Haley would probably have a decent foreign policy, and it's hard to tell how much the non-Trump candidates are pretending to be "Trumpian" to get votes from the base, pretty much any Republican would be terrible overall (they'll nominate right-wing justices, not veto Republican legislation, etc). Given this option, I would choose 75% Biden.

However, in reality, while I think Haley probably has a better chance than Trump to win (It's hard to know for sure), it probably wouldn't be that much bigger than Trump's chances (and definitely a lot lower than 100%), so in real life, I would prefer Haley win the primary.

I agree. Obviously a lot of the question depends upon what you think the GOP would do under a Haley administration. At this point it seems like the GOP is so MAGA-fied that I think the odds that Haley does a lot of crazy authoritarian shit (and maybe invade Mexico?) seems fairly high. With that you probably take a 75% Biden chance over a 100% chance of Haley.

In a real world scenario, you obviously root for Haley to beat Trump in the primary. Even though I don't have a ton of faith in what a Haley administration would do, breaking the Trump fever in the GOP is a first step towards returning to a sane GOP.

For those picking 75% Biden, I'm curious if you think Haley would (1) try to subvert an election she lost; (2) encourage her followers to stage an insurrection; or (3) surround herself with people like Flynn, Giuliani, Powell, etc. who are batshit insane?

Any Republican winning right now, including Haley, runs a very high risk of locking in R control of the SCOTUS for decades and passing discriminatory laws against swathes of people. Let's say it's only a 75% chance of that happening - are you willing to take that 75% vs. 25% chance of Trump winning? It's not that Haley isn't preferable to Trump. It's that she's still a mind-blowingly bad alternative to Biden.

I don't disagree that Haley is not a good outcome. I think you're right about SCOTUS and discriminatory laws. There are very few issues that I would likely align with Haley on.

But Nikki Haley isn't going to end democratic government. All the bad shit that could (and likely would happen) under a Haley administration is more or less reversible over time. If Trump wins a second term, it's all over.

A 25% chance that could happen is unacceptable from where I sit.

[ImLawBoy]

But Nikki Haley isn't going to end democratic government. All the bad shit that could (and likely would happen) under a Haley administration is more or less reversible over time. If Trump wins a second term, it's all over.

A 25% chance that could happen is unacceptable from where I sit.

She may not directly end it, but she would likely doom it in the long run. Combined with likely R control of the Senate, we're looking at little opportunity to counter voter suppression and gerrymandering, and that will continue in full effect and pick up more steam. She will not stop that or even slow it down. It'll be different from Trump for the next 4 years, but I'm not sure that in 50 years it will be any different. Plus there's the very immediate harm it will do to friends and potentially family from legalized discrimination.

[El Guapo]

Thought experiment: If you were given two options, which would you choose?

(1) Biden v. Trump with a 75% chance Biden wins; or
(2) Nikki Haley as the next POTUS

While Haley would probably have a decent foreign policy, and it's hard to tell how much the non-Trump candidates are pretending to be "Trumpian" to get votes from the base, pretty much any Republican would be terrible overall (they'll nominate right-wing justices, not veto Republican legislation, etc). Given this option, I would choose 75% Biden.

However, in reality, while I think Haley probably has a better chance than Trump to win (It's hard to know for sure), it probably wouldn't be that much bigger than Trump's chances (and definitely a lot lower than 100%), so in real life, I would prefer Haley win the primary.

I agree. Obviously a lot of the question depends upon what you think the GOP would do under a Haley administration. At this point it seems like the GOP is so MAGA-fied that I think the odds that Haley does a lot of crazy authoritarian shit (and maybe invade Mexico?) seems fairly high. With that you probably take a 75% Biden chance over a 100% chance of Haley.

In a real world scenario, you obviously root for Haley to beat Trump in the primary. Even though I don't have a ton of faith in what a Haley administration would do, breaking the Trump fever in the GOP is a first step towards returning to a sane GOP.

For those picking 75% Biden, I'm curious if you think Haley would (1) try to subvert an election she lost; (2) encourage her followers to stage an insurrection; or (3) surround herself with people like Flynn, Giuliani, Powell, etc. who are batshit insane?

Stage an insurrection? No. Subvert an election? Maybe! Depends upon what you consider "subvert", but Trump has very much mainstreamed "democrats steal elections" as a fundamental GOP belief. If GOP officials or operatives like Jeffrey Clarke or John Eastman start trying to change the results in a key swing state, would Haley explicitly or implicitly support them? Would she put a stop to it? I wish I had more confidence that she would do the right thing, but I don't.

[Carpet_pissr]

I'm curious if you think Haley would (1) try to subvert an election she lost; (2) encourage her followers to stage an insurrection; or (3) surround herself with people like Flynn, Giuliani, Powell, etc. who are batshit insane?

Absolutely not, to all three of the above. And I am no Haley fan, not by a long shot.

Continue to try and get right leaning SCOTUS appointments? Of course! No brainer. (and I do recognize the awfulness and danger of that as well).

[YellowKing]

Another worrisome thing about Haley is that she will flip positions on a dime if she thinks it helps her politically. Anyone who is that flip-floppy can be easily swayed by whoever talks to her last. She'd have no driving ambition for America on her own; it would be policy based on who screamed the loudest. And she'd find a way to package that shit sandwich in a fancy box with nice gift wrap when giving it to the American people.

[Carpet_pissr]

Another worrisome thing about Haley is that she will flip positions on a dime if she thinks it helps her politically. Anyone who is that flip-floppy can be easily swayed by whoever talks to her last. She'd have no driving ambition for America on her own; it would be policy based on who screamed the loudest. And she'd find a way to package that shit sandwich in a fancy box with nice gift wrap when giving it to the American people.

Yeah, great follow-up. I was about to add that disclaimer, and you beat me to it. That really is her biggest danger IMO. Much like Lindsey Fucking Graham, she's a political weasel (but much much less so, I think...he's Ted Cruz level...maybe worse), so the danger is the MAGAt pressure on her internally is so great, that she folds, and any "good for the country, MAGAts be damned" (see her position on removing the Confederate flag from the SC Capitol building when she was governor) instincts could easily be crushed.

[Holman]

The entire mission of the GOP right now--at every level--is to engineer a system to maintain white Christian rule for the forseeable future. This means voter suppression in all its forms, and in practice it both strengthens and is fueled by white supremacy.

It doesn't matter whether it's Trump, DeSantis, Haley, or Christie in the White House. Every step Republicans take will be aimed at that goal. It's their only path to survival as a power bloc.

[waitingtoconnect]

Thought experiment: If you were given two options, which would you choose?

(1) Biden v. Trump with a 75% chance Biden wins; or
(2) Nikki Haley as the next POTUS

While Haley would probably have a decent foreign policy, and it's hard to tell how much the non-Trump candidates are pretending to be "Trumpian" to get votes from the base, pretty much any Republican would be terrible overall (they'll nominate right-wing justices, not veto Republican legislation, etc). Given this option, I would choose 75% Biden.

However, in reality, while I think Haley probably has a better chance than Trump to win (It's hard to know for sure), it probably wouldn't be that much bigger than Trump's chances (and definitely a lot lower than 100%), so in real life, I would prefer Haley win the primary.

I agree. Obviously a lot of the question depends upon what you think the GOP would do under a Haley administration. At this point it seems like the GOP is so MAGA-fied that I think the odds that Haley does a lot of crazy authoritarian shit (and maybe invade Mexico?) seems fairly high. With that you probably take a 75% Biden chance over a 100% chance of Haley.

In a real world scenario, you obviously root for Haley to beat Trump in the primary. Even though I don't have a ton of faith in what a Haley administration would do, breaking the Trump fever in the GOP is a first step towards returning to a sane GOP.

For those picking 75% Biden, I'm curious if you think Haley would (1) try to subvert an election she lost; (2) encourage her followers to stage an insurrection; or (3) surround herself with people like Flynn, Giuliani, Powell, etc. who are batshit insane?

They won’t do that because that wants the original plan. The plan is to gerrymander their way to becoming the permanent party in power. Then they can get their federal abortion ban etc.

That some presidential elections will be won and lost in the meantime is expected. But the president isn’t that important in their end goal. The senate, house and SC and the courts leading up to it are. Any president will just be a figurehead. And if they are a Democrat they will always be a lame duck. The real prize is individual states like Wisconsin (the model for their plan)

Trump spoiled the plan by winning in 2016. And he could never be a figurehead and he could never accept losing

[Kurth]

The entire mission of the GOP right now--at every level--is to engineer a system to maintain white Christian rule for the forseeable future. This means voter suppression in all its forms, and in practice it both strengthens and is fueled by white supremacy.

It doesn't matter whether it's Trump, DeSantis, Haley, or Christie in the White House. Every step Republicans take will be aimed at that goal. It's their only path to survival as a power bloc.

I'm not sure I agree with you entirely on your first point. I think there are still old-school fiscal conservative GOP moderates out there. But I do agree with you to the extent you're talking about the current manifestation of the GOP - the one that's in power right now.

I definitely disagree with your second point. The notion that it doesn't matter if it's Trump or any of the other GOP nominees. That seems insane to me. Of all the people you named, only one of those would, beyond a shadow of a doubt, end democracy if it were in his power to do so. Assuming he isn't dead or infirm, is there anyone who thinks Trump would even think twice before running for a third term (or just skipping the election altogether and staying in power - a beautiful extended second term)? There are no lines with him. He will install himself (and his shitty children) for life if given the opportunity.

Sure, the GOP (in its current state), would love to use the levers of government to undermine representative democracy over time. But Trump would just smash those levers and do it right away.

One of these outcomes at least affords a chance to peacefully oppose the effort to undermine democratic institutions. The other, not so much.

[Zaxxon]

I'm not sure I agree with you entirely on your first point. I think there are still old-school fiscal conservative GOP moderates out there.

There are two types of GOP folks out there—those destroying our democracy, and those sticking with their party as it destroys our democracy.

Certainly neither is worthy of pinning our future hopes on.

[ImLawBoy]

One of these outcomes at least affords a chance to peacefully oppose the effort to undermine democratic institutions. The other, not so much.

I think that you greatly overestimate that chance.

[Zaxxon]

Yeah, see above.

[Kurth]

One of these outcomes at least affords a chance to peacefully oppose the effort to undermine democratic institutions. The other, not so much.

I think that you greatly overestimate that chance.

Fair enough. But if Trump gets a second term, where do you put our chances? Even a small - if overestimated - chance is huge compared to 0.000%.

[Kurth]

I'm not sure I agree with you entirely on your first point. I think there are still old-school fiscal conservative GOP moderates out there.

There are two types of GOP folks out there—those destroying our democracy, and those sticking with their party as it destroys our democracy.

Certainly neither is worthy of pinning our future hopes on.

No disagreement there. Not in any respect. Just to be clear in case there was some misunderstanding, this has nothing to do with an argument that people should be supporting the GOP at this point.

It’s an argument that there is vast distance between our future with Trump in a second term as president and literally anyone else in that position.