Shutdown 3: the Shutdownening

[LordMortis]

Now we get to see how long the country can continue without a functioning government. We're locked in an impasse here that I'm not sure there's a way out of. I mean, what happens if, six months from now, those few hardliners are still refusing to budge?

Depends on the non hardliners, doesn't it? Specifically the one in the GOP, who can either pivot to the worst of their own radicals or to the centrist democrats.

[waitingtoconnect]

Blaming the democrats shows a complete misunderstanding of the process of government which is probably how the maga republicans like their school system.

The republicans so far to my knowledge haven’t even put up a bill for the democrats to vote for or vote down.

And they hold the speakership so they are controlling the spending of the government not Biden not the senate.

Whether they are doing this for Trump (bring on the apocalypse), Jesus (bring on the apocalypse) or for some sense of fiscal responsibility (bring on the apocalypse) history shows if you don’t pay your military your society tends to be in danger of a coup. Which is course is what some of these people want.

This is where there is an issue with the House system perhaps. In a Westminster democracy where the equivalent of the house speaker is prime minister and head of government a new election can be called by the head of state or prime minister if a parliamentary impasse can’t be broken. If an impasse like this led to a special election and a spilling of all seats they might be more inclined to a compromise.

[hepcat]

I don’t understand why one of the paycheck types that stops during a shutdown isn’t the one going to members of congress and the senate. Obvious hucksters like Gaetz would think twice, I’m guessing.

[waitingtoconnect]

Given how close and cuddly these guys like to get with billionaires and gold bars (from both parties) I’m certain theyd be looked after. The only thing that hurts then is the threat of losing their seat and power. This is why in my opinion we need the threat of special elections and contestable non gerrymandered district seats.

[Blackhawk]

I seriously don't think they'd care. Yeah, they get some money, but most of them have other, much more lucrative sources of income, direct and indirect.

[Kraken]

Now we get to see how long the country can continue without a functioning government. We're locked in an impasse here that I'm not sure there's a way out of. I mean, what happens if, six months from now, those few hardliners are still refusing to budge?

Depends on the non hardliners, doesn't it? Specifically the one in the GOP, who can either pivot to the worst of their own radicals or to the centrist democrats.

I said a few pages ago that the more salient question is, how does the government reopen? The small group of extremists who are shutting it down won't budge unless they get to set the terms. So we have to bypass them, which only McCarthy can do, with Democratic help, at the likely expense of his job. The Senate provided a clean bipartisan continuing resolution. All McC has to do is bring it to a vote.

What I don't understand is what happens if the hardliners call for his removal. Does the entire House then vote on his speakership, or only his own party? Could those same Democrats keep him in the position? Would they want to? Would he be fatally crippled if they did?

Of course, the continuing resolution only kicks the can down the road by a few weeks or months. The House still has to pass its actual budget bills -- real budgets that can pass the Senate and that Biden can sign -- and they're currently 0/12 on even agreeing to a wishlist.

[Alefroth]

I seriously don't think they'd care. Yeah, they get some money, but most of them have other, much more lucrative sources of income, direct and indirect.

+1

[Unagi]

Truth is that the reopening of the government depends on McCarthy sacrificing his job and maybe career.

And I don’t know that he has a lot of options beyond that.

This will be forever -his- shutdown.

[Skinypupy]

This stupid shit does not help.

[Smoove_B]

But was he wearing a horned helmet and carrying a spear when he did it? Because then it would have been for freedom.

[Holman]

But was he wearing a horned helmet and carrying a spear when he did it? Because then it would have been for freedom.

Oh, Hannity will be comparing it to January 6 in a couple of hours. Bet on it.

[Smoove_B]

They apparently passed a stop-gap bill:

In a key step to avoid a government shutdown, the House passed a 45-day short term spending resolution, which includes natural disaster aid but not additional funding for Ukraine or border security. The final vote tally was 335-91.

The only Democrat to vote against was Rep. Mike Quigley of Illinois.

The bill needed two-thirds of House members voting to support it, since it was brought up through an expedited process. The bill now heads to the Senate.

Also:

As the House was gaveling out, Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida — a hardliner who has opposed House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's stopgap spending bill — shouted "Mr. Speaker, Mr. Speaker," in an attempt to get the attention of Rep. Steve Womack of Arkansas in the chair.

But Gaetz was not recognized and the House adjourned.

[RunningMn9]

This stupid shit does not help.

It doesn’t but they had to do something to create enough of a delay to actually read the bill before the vote. I guess F Ukraine for the next 45 days though.

[Unagi]

"Sorry, I smelled smoke. Was there not a fire? Better safe than sorry. My bad."

[Blackhawk]

It took me forever to figure out what a "Cannon fire alarm" was. "In case of lit fuse, break glass."

[Unagi]

What -is- a Cannon fire alarm?

[Blackhawk]

What -is- a Cannon fire alarm?

I believe it refers to an office building that is of some significance. I'm sure it made perfect sense to locals.

[Smoove_B]

What -is- a Cannon fire alarm?

A poorly constructed sentence.

He pulled a fire alarm in the Cannon House Office Building.

[Blackhawk]

It was a Twitter sentence, which are poorly constructed out of necessity. I'd say the problem was that it made assumptions about the reader based on the author's knowledge.

[El Guapo]

Soooo...is the stopgap bill likely to pass the Senate? I would think so? Does that mean maybe no shutdown?

[Octavious]

It would be terrible optics if the dems shoot it down in the Senate. So I'd be surprised if it doesn't pass.

[malchior]

Fire alarms. Cutting off aid to allies in dire need. Last minute scrambles where the House leadership sneaks votes on critical bills. What a shit show we are. Guess we went with new levels of dysfunction.

[Blackhawk]

Why are the Rs so desperate to cut aid to Ukraine? It seems like the pro-military, pro-security party would be first in line to support anything that weakens Russia, especially when it doesn't involve the US pulling any of the triggers.

[El Guapo]

Why are the Rs so desperate to cut aid to Ukraine? It seems like the pro-military, pro-security party would be first in line to support anything that weakens Russia, especially when it doesn't involve the US pulling any of the triggers.

Because Trump is pro-Russia, which limits the degree to which the GOP can be pro-Ukraine. This is one area where there's significant disagreement between party leaders (mainly McConnell) and Trump, but it still puts pressure on party leaders who otherwise would probably be fine with Ukraine aid.

[LordMortis]

Why are the Rs so desperate to cut aid to Ukraine? It seems like the pro-military, pro-security party would be first in line to support anything that weakens Russia, especially when it doesn't involve the US pulling any of the triggers.

They've move isolationist over the last decade with the freedom caucus and the TFG hate Ukraine and the NRA has been compromised by Putin assets and so on and so on and so on.

[Alefroth]

Soooo...is the stopgap bill likely to pass the Senate? I would think so? Does that mean maybe no shutdown?

It passed. I don't think there was much doubt it would.

[El Guapo]

Soooo...is the stopgap bill likely to pass the Senate? I would think so? Does that mean maybe no shutdown?

It passed. I don't think there was much doubt it would.

I don't think that I've ever been more mad at Kevin McCarthy. I was really looking forward to having next week off. #ShutItDown

[Alefroth]

Lol... maybe you can sill have Thanksgiving week off. It'll be interesting to see if Gaetz carries through now.

[Lassr]

Soooo...is the stopgap bill likely to pass the Senate? I would think so? Does that mean maybe no shutdown?

It passed. I don't think there was much doubt it would.

I don't think that I've ever been more mad at Kevin McCarthy. I was really looking forward to having next week off. #ShutItDown

LOL. I had actually started patching nail holes in the kitchen to paint next week while I was off...now I have spackle on the walls and not sure when I will paint.

[Skinypupy]

Relieved, as my big project for the year was set to kick off on Oct 16. So at least that is saved.

See you all in 45 days!

[Kraken]

Soooo...is the stopgap bill likely to pass the Senate? I would think so? Does that mean maybe no shutdown?

It passed. I don't think there was much doubt it would.

I don't think that I've ever been more mad at Kevin McCarthy. I was really looking forward to having next week off. #ShutItDown

And I was going to grudgingly say that I misjudged McC; I didn't think he'd risk his job to do the right thing. Not that I *admire* him or anything close to it, but he managed to raise my low expectations.

[Lassr]

Soooo...is the stopgap bill likely to pass the Senate? I would think so? Does that mean maybe no shutdown?

It passed. I don't think there was much doubt it would.

I don't think that I've ever been more mad at Kevin McCarthy. I was really looking forward to having next week off. #ShutItDown

And I was going to grudgingly say that I misjudged McC; I didn't think he'd risk his job to do the right thing. Not that I *admire* him or anything close to it, but he managed to raise my low expectations.

True, I thought we'd have to wait 2 or 3 weeks before he reached across the isle. Now I wonder if the Dems will help save his position as SotH.

[Alefroth]

I'd like to see them do it to stick it to Gaetz and Co.

[malchior]

Soooo...is the stopgap bill likely to pass the Senate? I would think so? Does that mean maybe no shutdown?

It passed. I don't think there was much doubt it would.

I don't think that I've ever been more mad at Kevin McCarthy. I was really looking forward to having next week off. #ShutItDown

And I was going to grudgingly say that I misjudged McC; I didn't think he'd risk his job to do the right thing. Not that I *admire* him or anything close to it, but he managed to raise my low expectations.

True, I thought we'd have to wait 2 or 3 weeks before he reached across the isle. Now I wonder if the Dems will help save his position as SotH.

That's a tricky game. Whatever he has to give the Democrats for such can't push away the amount of Republicans he needs.

[Unagi]

Why are the Rs so desperate to cut aid to Ukraine? It seems like the pro-military, pro-security party would be first in line to support anything that weakens Russia, especially when it doesn't involve the US pulling any of the triggers.

Honestly mind boggling. How they can defend it; militarily, selfishly, in the best interests of the USA - all of that... and they don't care... Since the Ukraine blame Trump for a shake-down, they are with the libs and must lose.

[RunningMn9]

Relieved, as my big project for the year was set to kick off on Oct 16. So at least that is saved.

See you all in 45 days!

Same here, have an important event scheduled for 10/9-10/12 that we wouldn’t be able to reschedule.

[El Guapo]

Soooo...is the stopgap bill likely to pass the Senate? I would think so? Does that mean maybe no shutdown?

It passed. I don't think there was much doubt it would.

I don't think that I've ever been more mad at Kevin McCarthy. I was really looking forward to having next week off. #ShutItDown

And I was going to grudgingly say that I misjudged McC; I didn't think he'd risk his job to do the right thing. Not that I *admire* him or anything close to it, but he managed to raise my low expectations.

I'm not sure that I would say that he did "the right thing" exactly. I suspect it's more that he didn't see a plausible face-saving way for him out of the shutdown once it started. The Gaetz wing of the House wasn't about to start getting more reasonable, so I think he figured that he was going to have to do this eventually, and it was better to do it now while it could be spinned as him saving the country from a shutdown.

[El Guapo]

Soooo...is the stopgap bill likely to pass the Senate? I would think so? Does that mean maybe no shutdown?

It passed. I don't think there was much doubt it would.

I don't think that I've ever been more mad at Kevin McCarthy. I was really looking forward to having next week off. #ShutItDown

And I was going to grudgingly say that I misjudged McC; I didn't think he'd risk his job to do the right thing. Not that I *admire* him or anything close to it, but he managed to raise my low expectations.

True, I thought we'd have to wait 2 or 3 weeks before he reached across the isle. Now I wonder if the Dems will help save his position as SotH.

I think McCarthy is basically gambling that the rebel faction can't get its shit together enough to get a replacement elected. Which...is probably correct, I would guess.

[malchior]

The trouble is that trust in McCarthy's ability to deliver deals with just about anyone is in the dumps. Jeffries is more influential with votes than him at this point. So while Gaetz doesn't have the votes to pick a replacement he can make a lot of noise over the next week.

[Blackhawk]

I think McCarthy is basically gambling that the rebel faction can't get its shit together enough to get a replacement elected. Which...is probably correct, I would guess.

It won't matter. They are simply voting on whether to remove him first. And if they can't agree on a replacement, they already have a 'secret list' in place for who takes over if there's no officially elected Speaker. It was put into place after 9/11 in case of emergency by... McCarthy. They could vote him out, argue about a replacement, and coast with whoever's on the the top of the list.

It's more about whether they can get their shit together enough to actually vote him out (although if the dems don't choose to vote for him, or there aren't enough abstentions, it won't matter.) For the dems, I think it comes down to whether their distrust of McCarthy is stronger than their dislike of whatever tops the secret list.