Trump's Cabinet selection

[Lassr]

Am I the only one concerned that Scoop lived through the night?

To be frank, I'm more surprised that you lived through the night.

Until this day broke I was just another player with potential to be harmful to the bad guys not a known role. Why would you expect me to be targeted in front of others?

Because Remus

If Chaos is one of the bad guys he may not have wanted to draw attention to himself so close to victory.

[Lassr]

So it doesn't surprise me that you two lived. They knew a hit last night got us down to a must hit today so why risk it.

Well, they wouldn't *know* that, since Putin could be dead (in which case we're at 5-2, and so not a must hit today). They may be operating under that assumption, though.

Odd

indeed

[Chaosraven]

Am I the only one concerned that Scoop lived through the night?

To be frank, I'm more surprised that you lived through the night.

Until this day broke I was just another player with potential to be harmful to the bad guys not a known role. Why would you expect me to be targeted in front of others?

Because Remus

If Chaos is one of the bad guys he may not have wanted to draw attention to himself so close to victory.

Dude he would have died WAY before last night.

[El Guapo]

So it doesn't surprise me that you two lived. They knew a hit last night got us down to a must hit today so why risk it.

Well, they wouldn't *know* that, since Putin could be dead (in which case we're at 5-2, and so not a must hit today). They may be operating under that assumption, though.

Odd

indeed

What's confusing about this? You said that the wolves *knew* that hitting last night got us down to a must hit today, and were using that statement as a basis for explaining why they didn't target Scoop. But that's not true - if one of the wolves night kills was Putin, then we are at 5 good players and 2 evil (just Trump and Conway). So, the wolves couldn't know that a hit last night would get us down to a must hit today.

But, the probability is that Putin was likely not among the night kills, so they may be assuming he's alive. Though who knows.

[Lassr]

So it doesn't surprise me that you two lived. They knew a hit last night got us down to a must hit today so why risk it.

Well, they wouldn't *know* that, since Putin could be dead (in which case we're at 5-2, and so not a must hit today). They may be operating under that assumption, though.

Odd

indeed

What's confusing about this? You said that the wolves *knew* that hitting last night got us down to a must hit today, and were using that statement as a basis for explaining why they didn't target Scoop. But that's not true - if one of the wolves night kills was Putin, then we are at 5 good players and 2 evil (just Trump and Conway). So, the wolves couldn't know that a hit last night would get us down to a must hit today.

But, the probability is that Putin was likely not among the night kills, so they may be assuming he's alive. Though who knows.

indeed

[Grundbegriff]

So it doesn't surprise me that you two lived. They knew a hit last night got us down to a must hit today so why risk it.

Well, they wouldn't *know* that, since Putin could be dead (in which case we're at 5-2, and so not a must hit today). They may be operating under that assumption, though.

Odd

indeed

What's confusing about this?

I was referring to Lassr's comment, not to your noticing it.

[Lassr]

which part? Not surprised that Scoop and Remus are alive, or the part where I think the bad guys will assume Trump is alive to play for the victory today.

[Lassr]

which part? Not surprised that Scoop and Remus are alive, or the part where I think the bad guys will assume Trump is alive to play for the victory today.

let's examine both of those.

It worked out where scoop could have protected himself last night so why would they take the chance. Chaos is part of the 3 left where at least 2 bad guys reside. Either Chaos is a bad guy and chose not to point fingers at himself with a Remus kill or Chaos is not a bad guy and didn't have the choice to knock off Remus.

If I was part of the bad guy team I would assume Putin is alive today to play for the victory, thus not risking going after Scoop. Good thing is, if we make a good choice today, then Scoop can protect Remus tonight and he can scan one of the remaining two (if he is indeed the scanner). Odds are he is. But I do remember Mara Jade. Odds don't mean jack shit when something happens against the odds.

[Lassr]

Who has voted? Can we get a vote count?

Grund I believe voted earlier for Chaos. Has Chaos or El Guapo voted. It should be much easier for the top 3 to vote because they KNOW who the bad guys are just not who is who but no amount of analyzing is going to determine that.

[Remus West]

I believe that Alex, if alive, should scan Lassr tonight. I agree with Grund that his statement is odd. I do not feel strongly enough about it to lynch someone I have scanned as not being 2 of the 3 possible bad guys.

[Moliere]

Votes received
(0) El Guapo:
(1) Grundbegriff: PLW
(0) Scoop20906:
(0) Remus West:
(0) Lassr:
(0) PLW:
(1) Chaosraven: Lassr, Grundbegriff,

Four votes are needed among the seven remaining players.

[Lassr]

 El Guapo 
 


I am torn between Grund and Chaos but feel El Guapo is one of the two in the top group.

[Lassr]

I believe that Alex, if alive, should scan Lassr tonight. I agree with Grund that his statement is odd. I do not feel strongly enough about it to lynch someone I have scanned as not being 2 of the 3 possible bad guys.

I'm fine with that but I'd rather he find Putin and not Who is Not Putin.

[Chaosraven]

Lassr, do you even realize you keep saying Trump instead of Putin?

[Lassr]

Lassr, do you even realize you keep saying Trump instead of Putin?

I see where I did switch it above, but in the explanation I get it right.

[Scoop20906]

 El Guapo 
 


I am torn between Grund and Chaos but feel El Guapo is one of the two in the top group.

I disagree. Glad you voted. I'm hanging back until the other suspects cast a vote.

[El Guapo]

Where I am torn currently, is that I am neither comfortable with the conclusion that Grund and Chaosraven are both wolves, nor with the conclusion that Remus or Scoop is lying. And yet I must pick one.

[Lassr]

Where I am torn currently, is that I am neither comfortable with the conclusion that Grund and Chaosraven are both wolves, nor with the conclusion that Remus or Scoop is lying. And yet I must pick one.

So. if you think one of them is lying, you plan on voting for one of them then? It could be possible that they lucked up and spoofed a role that was killed already, plus they came out with no pressure on them, so to me the odds are slim that they are lying. Not impossible but I just cannot bring myself to vote for one of them hoping for a miracle hit.

I cannot imagine you will talk anyone else into voting for one of them either.

To me your statement above reads very wolfish.

[Scoop20906]

I have never lied about being a major media personality.

[Remus West]

Scoop came out to avoid being lynched.

[Lassr]

yep, you are right. Hell this game is going so slow it is hard to remember stuff. that was 16 days ago.

Still at the time there were 2 night deaths so odds are with scoop on that one.

[Grundbegriff]

Votes received
(0) El Guapo: Lassr
(1) Grundbegriff: PLW
(0) Scoop20906:
(0) Remus West:
(0) Lassr:
(0) PLW:
(1) Chaosraven: Lassr, Grundbegriff,

Four votes are needed among the seven remaining players.

Updated. There's so much traffic that I may have missed something....

I see possibilities, but I don't see any way to decide among them. I'm content to stay in my chosen lane unless that situation changes.

[El Guapo]

Where I am torn currently, is that I am neither comfortable with the conclusion that Grund and Chaosraven are both wolves, nor with the conclusion that Remus or Scoop is lying. And yet I must pick one.

So. if you think one of them is lying, you plan on voting for one of them then? It could be possible that they lucked up and spoofed a role that was killed already, plus they came out with no pressure on them, so to me the odds are slim that they are lying. Not impossible but I just cannot bring myself to vote for one of them hoping for a miracle hit.

I cannot imagine you will talk anyone else into voting for one of them either.

To me your statement above reads very wolfish.

If both Remus and Scoop are telling the truth, since I know I am good, that means that Grund and Chaos are Trump / Conway. Unless I am missing something.

If they are not, then Remus and/or Scoop is lying. Which yes, would suggest that I would vote for one of them. Though the question would become who is the liar.

[Lassr]

Though the question would become who is the liar.

Do you have a plan to figure this out?

Two night kills when Scoop announced to save himself from lynch. Slim odds that Cooper was one of those killed but possible. 3 night kills when Remus came out at the start of the day. No pending lynch threat. Really slim odds to me he is faking since they have no way of knowing if Jill was removed from the game.

[Grundbegriff]

For either scenario (Scoop-liar or Remus-liar), consider what they would gamble and whether they'd be ok with a contesting claim.

1. Scoop-- if he's not Cooper and Cooper had stepped forward, would Team Putin have been ok with that?
2. Remus-- if he's not Jill and Jill had stepped forward....

As for the gamble: would they wager Conway (whose death isn't a victory condition but who counts in the math) or Trump (whose death is a victory condition but who's replaceable if Putin is alive)?

Given that odds of a live Putin are no worse than odds of a live Stein or Cooper, I suppose they would've gambled on Trump's coming forward to spoof.

Which spoof is more palatable from an evil perspective? Jill would out the seer or usurp her authority. That's high- value. Anderson is easy to fake, but outing a living guardian is less useful. Hardly any chance at all that both are faking, so it's interesting that one claimed under duress and the other voluntarily.

Under duress, which lie would you tell? High value or low?
If you were really Jill, would you announce at dawn or wait until "afternoon" to perhaps entrap a spoofer?

[Remus West]

I'll withhold my thinking on Grund's post until others have their say.

[Lassr]

Under duress, which lie would you tell? High value or low?
If you were really Jill, would you announce at dawn or wait until "afternoon" to perhaps entrap a spoofer?

If I was about to be lynched as a bad guy, I'd shoot for the moon and go high value not knowing if any of them were still alive.
If I were Jill, and I also was a player that people loved to lynch, I would come out sooner rather than wait until a train was started making it harder to prove I am telling the truth and not trying to get out of a lynch.

[Lassr]

[El Guapo]

For either scenario (Scoop-liar or Remus-liar), consider what they would gamble and whether they'd be ok with a contesting claim.

1. Scoop-- if he's not Cooper and Cooper had stepped forward, would Team Putin have been ok with that?
2. Remus-- if he's not Jill and Jill had stepped forward....

As for the gamble: would they wager Conway (whose death isn't a victory condition but who counts in the math) or Trump (whose death is a victory condition but who's replaceable if Putin is alive)?

Given that odds of a live Putin are no worse than odds of a live Stein or Cooper, I suppose they would've gambled on Trump's coming forward to spoof.

Which spoof is more palatable from an evil perspective? Jill would out the seer or usurp her authority. That's high- value. Anderson is easy to fake, but outing a living guardian is less useful. Hardly any chance at all that both are faking, so it's interesting that one claimed under duress and the other voluntarily.

Under duress, which lie would you tell? High value or low?
If you were really Jill, would you announce at dawn or wait until "afternoon" to perhaps entrap a spoofer?

Interesting that you call it "Team Putin."

Anyway, I would think that Scoop would spoof Jill if he was lying. Higher value to expose the seer, and/or (if you get lucky) usurp her role. Of course there's an "iocane powder" ruse value for telling the less beneficial lie, but for the most part there's more reward in claiming Jill. I am inclined to think that he is telling the truth, although he's been so quiet this game there isn't much to go on in terms of evaluating him, beyond the role claim.

If Remus is lying, I really doubt that he's Trump. Yes, Trump is theoretically replaceable, but if Putin is dead (and the odds of that are not trivial) and you expose Trump, then you lose the game in one fell swoop. Seems incredibly risky for the wolves to do when they are ahead.

Remus coming out with a spoof first thing in a day is totally plausible - Remus has done that sort of thing in previous games.

Although - if Remus were a wolf and Scoop were not, then spoofing Jill would be a little silly. The wolves would be pretty sure that Scoop was telling the truth (only other possibility is Scooputin, which is unlikely and which they would not want to count on). So, if Remus spoofed Jill and the real Jill then came forward, they would face a tough scenario where: (1) Remus gets lynched, effectively proving the real Jill; and (2) Anderson Scooper probably protected himself, so he's available to protect Jill, letting her get off another (proven) scan.

Seems risky.

[Grundbegriff]

Interesting that you call it "Team Putin."

During my reread, I noticed that Scoop had requested the change and that Moliere had complied. Are you saying you're not a member of the CNN Breaking News team?

[Grundbegriff]

If Remus is lying, I really doubt that he's Trump. Yes, Trump is theoretically replaceable, but if Putin is dead (and the odds of that are not trivial) and you expose Trump, then you lose the game in one fell swoop. Seems incredibly risky for the wolves to do when they are ahead.

It's a go-large move, for if Putin is alive and you expose Trump, then (this far in) you win the game in one fell swoop! Also a non-trivial temptation.

[Grundbegriff]

Although - if Remus were a wolf and Scoop were not, then spoofing Jill would be a little silly. The wolves would be pretty sure that Scoop was telling the truth (only other possibility is Scooputin, which is unlikely and which they would not want to count on). So, if Remus spoofed Jill and the real Jill then came forward, they would face a tough scenario where: (1) Remus gets lynched, effectively proving the real Jill; and (2) Anderson Scooper probably protected himself, so he's available to protect Jill, letting her get off another (proven) scan.

Seems risky.

Yup. The thing that makes this endgame more interesting than some is that if Scoop and Remus are both clean, then the scenario you describe is happening to the wolves anyhow, but without the exposure! Remus as Jill, if honest, may be protected by Scoop, if honest, and garner a trustworthy scan. So the question deepens: would the wolves anticipate that this endgame might be coming down the pike and go for broke?

[Lassr]

looks like Scoop has forgotten he's still in the game.

[Chaosraven]

Vote for Chaosraven.

Make OO Great Again!

[Lassr]

Yo, PLW you around?

Can we end in a stalemate?

[El Guapo]

Yo, PLW you around?

Can we end in a stalemate?

Nah, it shouldn't come to that. I *would* like to hear from PLW and Scoop before voting, ideally, though I'm gonna go ahead and do it anyway in the next day or so regardless.

[PLW]

I'm still here and still listening, but I haven't heard anything that has changed my mind.

[Grundbegriff]

I'm still here and still listening, but I haven't heard anything that has changed my mind.

Hey! That's my line!

[Lassr]

someone wake me if this game starts moving.

[Moliere]

someone wake me if this game starts moving.