SCOTUS Watch

[Captain Caveman]

One upshot, if Kavanaugh does get confirmed, is that I do think it would probably be better for Democrats in the midterms if that happens. The Republican base will have what they want, while the Democratic base will be pissed as hell.

Losing the House is a small price to pay to get a political activist on the court for the next 40 years.

[El Guapo]

One upshot, if Kavanaugh does get confirmed, is that I do think it would probably be better for Democrats in the midterms if that happens. The Republican base will have what they want, while the Democratic base will be pissed as hell.

Losing the House is a small price to pay to get a political activist on the court for the next 40 years.

I'm aware. Not saying it's a good deal, just that it is one plausible upside.

Also, I think this shit is likely to increase the odds that a Democratic majority with a Democratic president looks at court packing in the future. It's going to be a rough couple decades, even in the optimistic scenarios.

[YellowKing]

Yeah I equate the modern Republican party to terrorists at this point. They don't play by the rules, they use fear and intimidation as weapons, and they're willing to blow themselves up to get what they want.

[Enough]

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/ ... 3794144256

[El Guapo]

Well, that's some ray of hope, I suppose. I will say, of the GOP 'flakes' (so to speak, Murkowski seems like the most serious one.

Also, more broadly, while I would bet on Kavanaugh getting confirmed at this point, this is not over. We're two days from a plausible confirmation vote, which doesn't *seem* like much, but a lot of people are going to be scrambling during that time to do what they can.

My guess right now is that there's ~ 70% chance that Kavanaugh gets confirmed. Strong favorite, significant doubt / risk.

[GreenGoo]

I think he's wrong on that point. But I don't think he's "sick." Are we at the point where it's no longer possible to just disagree with people?

You're the one with drumpf for president. You tell me.

[naednek]

the best part

He said that the altercation happened after a UB40 concert on Sept. 25, when he and a group of people went to Demery’s and were drinking pints. At one point, they were sitting near a man who, they thought, resembled Ali Campbell, the lead singer of UB40.

I'm not a journalist, but... this weirdly exhaustive database of concert tour dates lists no UB40 shows in September 1985.

I'm sure it's just incomplete data, or something. But somehow it would be perfectly Kavanaugh for him to be lying about this too.

but he has a calendar, he can't be lying. It's all written down

[malchior]

Paraphrased from something I saw on the Tweeter: The NYT ran a deeply-investigated piece accusing the President of fraud, he has not outright denied it, and it's not even a top story today. Meanwhile, the fix is quite clearly in for a lifetime appointment.

We're so fucked.

If "we" can get 2/3 majority out of the "Blue Wave" - we can still fix even lifetime appointments by simply looking at his testimony, highlighting a couple lies in magic marker, and calling it done - right?

It's not possible to get to a 2/3rds Democratic Senate majority

Mortoned.

Yeah I equate the modern Republican party to terrorists at this point. They don't play by the rules, they use fear and intimidation as weapons, and they're willing to blow themselves up to get what they want.

I've been describing them for several years as fighting a war that no one else recognized was happening. They've co-opted power in every way they can. Everywhere they can. And they don't care about norms. Only the rules. And they'll rules lawyer the shit out of everything. I'll be clear I'm not comparing them to Nazis. They aren't. But I understand now how people are just blind to how evil people rise to power like what happened in Germany in the 30s. They do it in plain sight.

[Chaz]

I said it two weeks ago, I'm still saying it now: it's going to come down to a 51-50 vote, with Murkowski voting no, Pence breaking the tie, and the GOP making a ton of speeches about how disappointed they are in the Dems for forcing them to do something unprecedented like having the VP break the tie on a SCOTUS nominee. Sad, Dems, sad.

[Skinypupy]

My friend is adamantly opposed to the Kavanaugh nomination, but he echoed comments very similar to Cramer's above: If Dr. Ford's allegations are in fact true and Judge Kavanaugh has lived an exemplary life for the past 36 years, this one incident should not preclude him from the Supreme Court.

I think he's wrong on that point. But I don't think he's "sick." Are we at the point where it's no longer possible to just disagree with people?

I don't know anything about Cramer. Maybe he is "sick," but I think there are a lot of good, decent people that share his point of view on this issue.

I know you don't agree with your friend on the "doesn't matter if he did it, he's been a good guy since" point, but I do feel it goes far beyond simple disagreement.

1. If Kavanaugh had done anything in the intervening 36 years to acknowledge his wrongdoing and engage in even the most minor goodwill to show that he recognized that his actions were inappropriate and awful and that he was a changed man, then that argument might have the smallest amount of merit. His behavior when confronted showed exactly the opposite.

2. We are a nation of 300 million people. So yes, it is absolutely appropriate to expect that we find someone who does not have multiple credible sexual assault allegations from their past to be one of 9 people to sit on the highest court in the land. Not only do we not have that expectation, but we're going to the other extreme by saying that sexual assault really doesn't matter as long as you've been a good dude since.

That, to me, is incredibly sick.

[Skinypupy]

Not that I expect it will matter, but Heitkamp is a no.

[malchior]

That, to me, is incredibly sick.

I agree. We've totally thrown in the towel on integrity, conservative ideals, heck even basic decency. These people are garbage. And we are pretty much powerless to stop them absent non-electoral means. That scares the hell out of me because eventually something will give. Either a crisis we can't manage or an internal breakdown. The risk of a meltdown are increasing at a fair clip now.

Not that I expect it will matter, but Heitkamp is a no.

Little surprise - her seat is all but lost anyway. That unlocks her conscience. If they were in a 4-5 point race she would have had a tough decision to make.

[Paingod]

As one of the voters who gets to cast against Collins in a couple of years, I'm disgusted by her characterizing a hollowed out sham as a thorough investigation.

[msduncan]

Kurth

The answer is no. We are long past the point where we can just disagree. We have Yellowking of all people proclaiming Republicans as terroists. We have people doxing Republican senators. We have Ricin being mailed to Republicans. We have violent confrontations being perpetrated by our Marxist Antifa friends.

So no... we can’t just disagree without being labeled as terrorists, bigots, fascists, racists. We have aggressive bullying at its best, and outright violence at its worst. We are WAY past being able to disagree. It’s the main reason I don’t waste my breath in this sub forum anymore.

[Zaxxon]

Who is Kurtz? This does call into question how closely you're following what's happening, if that's your intro.

[noxiousdog]

Kurtz,

The answer is no. We are long past the point where we can just disagree. We have Yellowking of all people proclaiming Republicans as terroists. We have people doxing Republican senators. We have Ricin being mailed to Republicans. We have violent confrontations being perpetrated by our Marxist Antifa friends.

So no... we can’t just disagree without being labeled as terrorists, bigots, fascists, racists. We have aggressive bullying at its best, and outright violence at its worst. We are WAY past being able to disagree. It’s the main reason I don’t waste my breath in this sub forum anymore.

Instead of wallowing in self-pity, maybe you should ask yourself why Yellowking and myself don't want to be associated with Republicans.

[Alefroth]

Well, that's some ray of hope, I suppose. I will say, of the GOP 'flakes' (so to speak, Murkowski seems like the most serious one.

Also, more broadly, while I would bet on Kavanaugh getting confirmed at this point, this is not over. We're two days from a plausible confirmation vote, which doesn't *seem* like much, but a lot of people are going to be scrambling during that time to do what they can.

My guess right now is that there's ~ 70% chance that Kavanaugh gets confirmed. Strong favorite, significant doubt / risk.

Hard to believe, but Sasse might also be a ray of hope.

https://www.businessinsider.com/republi ... se-2018-10

[Paingod]

Who is Kurtz? This does call into question how closely you're following what's happening, if that's your intro.

Last page, one line taken out of context with no quote.

we can’t just disagree without being labeled as terrorists, bigots, fascists, racists. We have aggressive bullying at its best, and outright violence at its worst.

I have no sympathy for anyone who stands behind the repugnant Otyugh in office, and the clan of Hobgoblins backing him up. I can only assume anyone who thinks whatever random policy shards are falling out of his administration are worth the damage he's doing to our standing in the world stage and in the history books is someone who's priorities fall well inside the range of "bigots, fascists, racists" - I can't fathom someone being a good person and standing up for that troll just to get whatever slop he pushes over the edge of the table.

I don't know how long it'll take before I assume a Republican is just having a "difference of opinion" with me. I automatically assume they're greedy, corrupt, and hateful.

[Max Peck]

We have violent confrontations being perpetrated by our Marxist Antifa friends.

So far, it's just your white supremacist Nazi friends that have killed anyone.

[Alefroth]

Who is Kurtz? This does call into question how closely you're following what's happening, if that's your intro.

[Zaxxon]

Who is Kurtz? This does call into question how closely you're following what's happening, if that's your intro.

Last page, one line taken out of context with no quote.

Oh, I'm aware of what and whom he was referring to. Rather, I was pointing out how he managed to get the simple, easily-verifiable detail wrong.

[malchior]

Kurtz,

The answer is no. We are long past the point where we can just disagree. We have Yellowking of all people proclaiming Republicans as terroists. We have people doxing Republican senators. We have Ricin being mailed to Republicans. We have violent confrontations being perpetrated by our Marxist Antifa friends.

So no... we can’t just disagree without being labeled as terrorists, bigots, fascists, racists. We have aggressive bullying at its best, and outright violence at its worst. We are WAY past being able to disagree. It’s the main reason I don’t waste my breath in this sub forum anymore.

Instead of wallowing in self-pity, maybe you should ask yourself why Yellowking and myself don't want to be associated with Republicans.

Exactly - I voted for Republicans...up until Bush's second election. That was when I had enough with the bullshit the GOP was selling. It has gotten way worse and despicable since then. The President mocks disabled reporters and a woman who seems to legitimately believe she was sexually assaulted and stepped forward to tell her story. That is the leader of *your party*. You support the scum of the earth and cast stones. Good grief.

[El Guapo]

Well, that's some ray of hope, I suppose. I will say, of the GOP 'flakes' (so to speak, Murkowski seems like the most serious one.

Also, more broadly, while I would bet on Kavanaugh getting confirmed at this point, this is not over. We're two days from a plausible confirmation vote, which doesn't *seem* like much, but a lot of people are going to be scrambling during that time to do what they can.

My guess right now is that there's ~ 70% chance that Kavanaugh gets confirmed. Strong favorite, significant doubt / risk.

Hard to believe, but Sasse might also be a ray of hope.

https://www.businessinsider.com/republi ... se-2018-10

That article calling Sasse's quote a "bombshell" is absurd - I have to assume that the author is unfamiliar with what bombs are. All he says is that he suggested that Trump pick someone else, preferably a woman. BFD, Sasse, we are all *so* impressed that you wanted him to pick a woman.

Notably, it doesn't say anything even hinting that he's going to vote no on who Trump actually nominated. And Sasse, to my knowledge, has done literally nothing of note contrary to GOP leadership or Trump's wishes to date, so the odds that he's going to do so now are .0000001%.

[Carpet_pissr]

K We have aggressive bullying at its best

Melania is on it! Excluding her husband of course. He's not "bullying", he's just using his position of power to passionately mock, verbally abuse and insult everyone that disagrees with him.

[msduncan]

Kurtz,

The answer is no. We are long past the point where we can just disagree. We have Yellowking of all people proclaiming Republicans as terroists. We have people doxing Republican senators. We have Ricin being mailed to Republicans. We have violent confrontations being perpetrated by our Marxist Antifa friends.

So no... we can’t just disagree without being labeled as terrorists, bigots, fascists, racists. We have aggressive bullying at its best, and outright violence at its worst. We are WAY past being able to disagree. It’s the main reason I don’t waste my breath in this sub forum anymore.

Instead of wallowing in self-pity, maybe you should ask yourself why Yellowking and myself don't want to be associated with Republicans.

The ability to have a discussion about this ended a long time ago. The responses to this, my first post in ages, is a perfect example of this. I’ll go quiet again after this post. Go ahead and have your orgy circle jerk of brownshirt responses without any further interference from my posts.

[Skinypupy]

Kurth

The answer is no. We are long past the point where we can just disagree. We have Yellowking of all people proclaiming Republicans as terroists. We have people doxing Republican senators. We have Ricin being mailed to Republicans. We have violent confrontations being perpetrated by our Marxist Antifa friends.

Because, as we all know, all these are tactics employed only by liberal heathens. Virtuous, righteous conservatives would never think to stoop to such a level.

[El Guapo]

Kurtz,

The answer is no. We are long past the point where we can just disagree. We have Yellowking of all people proclaiming Republicans as terroists. We have people doxing Republican senators. We have Ricin being mailed to Republicans. We have violent confrontations being perpetrated by our Marxist Antifa friends.

So no... we can’t just disagree without being labeled as terrorists, bigots, fascists, racists. We have aggressive bullying at its best, and outright violence at its worst. We are WAY past being able to disagree. It’s the main reason I don’t waste my breath in this sub forum anymore.

Instead of wallowing in self-pity, maybe you should ask yourself why Yellowking and myself don't want to be associated with Republicans.

The ability to have a discussion about this ended a long time ago. The responses to this, my first post in ages, is a perfect example of this. I’ll go quiet again after this post. Go ahead and have your orgy circle jerk of brownshirt responses without any further interference from my posts.

I have to say I do really enjoy a response about being unable to have civil discussion that also includes the phrase "orgy circle jerk of brownshirt responses".

[YellowKing]

I'd be happy to disagree over policy issues.

The problem is with the current Republican party you're asking me to have civil debate with people who either openly support - or support a President who supports - racism, misogyny, blatant falsehoods, mocking veterans, waging a war against a free press, openly sides with our enemies, etc.

This isn't about political policy. It's about common human decency. And the GOP has decided they don't care about morals or character anymore.

I didn't "switch sides" because I was brainwashed. I switched sides because I refused to support a party that didn't align with my core principles and openly supported bigotry. I'd love to see the Republican party go back to the good old fashioned conservatism of fiscal responsibility and tough foreign policy. Instead, they sold their soul to Trump, one of the most vile loathsome human beings on the planet. No thanks.

And MSD, you were the one who went on a profanity-filled tirade and quit the forum when I stopped siding with the GOP. Not sure how I'm now an example of someone that can't be civilly disagreed with.

[malchior]

Kurtz,

The answer is no. We are long past the point where we can just disagree. We have Yellowking of all people proclaiming Republicans as terroists. We have people doxing Republican senators. We have Ricin being mailed to Republicans. We have violent confrontations being perpetrated by our Marxist Antifa friends.

So no... we can’t just disagree without being labeled as terrorists, bigots, fascists, racists. We have aggressive bullying at its best, and outright violence at its worst. We are WAY past being able to disagree. It’s the main reason I don’t waste my breath in this sub forum anymore.

Instead of wallowing in self-pity, maybe you should ask yourself why Yellowking and myself don't want to be associated with Republicans.

The ability to have a discussion about this ended a long time ago. The responses to this, my first post in ages, is a perfect example of this. I’ll go quiet again after this post. Go ahead and have your orgy circle jerk of brownshirt responses without any further interference from my posts.

Brownshirts!?! Good lord.

[Skinypupy]

Kurtz,

The answer is no. We are long past the point where we can just disagree. We have Yellowking of all people proclaiming Republicans as terroists. We have people doxing Republican senators. We have Ricin being mailed to Republicans. We have violent confrontations being perpetrated by our Marxist Antifa friends.

So no... we can’t just disagree without being labeled as terrorists, bigots, fascists, racists. We have aggressive bullying at its best, and outright violence at its worst. We are WAY past being able to disagree. It’s the main reason I don’t waste my breath in this sub forum anymore.

Instead of wallowing in self-pity, maybe you should ask yourself why Yellowking and myself don't want to be associated with Republicans.

The ability to have a discussion about this ended a long time ago. The responses to this, my first post in ages, is a perfect example of this. I’ll go quiet again after this post. Go ahead and have your orgy circle jerk of brownshirt responses without any further interference from my posts.

I have to say I do really enjoy a response about being unable to have civil discussion that also includes the phrase "orgy circle jerk of brownshirt responses".

That, and...

[Zaxxon]

Brownshirts!?! Good lord.

It is incredibly rich to have msd hop in off his high horse clutching pearls and proclaim the end of civility, only to show his true civility-less colors once again moments later.

Good riddance.

[Carpet_pissr]

Kurtz,

The answer is no. We are long past the point where we can just disagree. We have Yellowking of all people proclaiming Republicans as terroists. We have people doxing Republican senators. We have Ricin being mailed to Republicans. We have violent confrontations being perpetrated by our Marxist Antifa friends.

So no... we can’t just disagree without being labeled as terrorists, bigots, fascists, racists. We have aggressive bullying at its best, and outright violence at its worst. We are WAY past being able to disagree. It’s the main reason I don’t waste my breath in this sub forum anymore.

Instead of wallowing in self-pity, maybe you should ask yourself why Yellowking and myself don't want to be associated with Republicans.

The ability to have a discussion about this ended a long time ago. The responses to this, my first post in ages, is a perfect example of this. I’ll go quiet again after this post. Go ahead and have your orgy circle jerk of brownshirt responses without any further interference from my posts.

I have to say I do really enjoy a response about being unable to have civil discussion that also includes the phrase "orgy circle jerk of brownshirt responses".

And a violent drive-by post at that.

[El Guapo]

Kurtz,

The answer is no. We are long past the point where we can just disagree. We have Yellowking of all people proclaiming Republicans as terroists. We have people doxing Republican senators. We have Ricin being mailed to Republicans. We have violent confrontations being perpetrated by our Marxist Antifa friends.

So no... we can’t just disagree without being labeled as terrorists, bigots, fascists, racists. We have aggressive bullying at its best, and outright violence at its worst. We are WAY past being able to disagree. It’s the main reason I don’t waste my breath in this sub forum anymore.

Instead of wallowing in self-pity, maybe you should ask yourself why Yellowking and myself don't want to be associated with Republicans.

The ability to have a discussion about this ended a long time ago. The responses to this, my first post in ages, is a perfect example of this. I’ll go quiet again after this post. Go ahead and have your orgy circle jerk of brownshirt responses without any further interference from my posts.

I have to say I do really enjoy a response about being unable to have civil discussion that also includes the phrase "orgy circle jerk of brownshirt responses".

That, and...

I will say, I agree that there isn't much point to trying to have a discussion between most of the people here and MSD. The differences are too stark - we basically live in different worlds given the respective news sources we listen to. Also because MSD (as is the case with a lot of people I know, both on and offline) can't engage much on political debate without being overwhelmed by anger and letting the hyperbole bombs fly. Also because MSD tends to throw rhetorical bombs, and because he's far to the right of most posters here, the result of most of his posts is 10+ people criticizing his post, which naturally feels like being ganged up on.

Still, the "it's too bad we can't have civil discourse anymore" combined with the brownshirt orgy remark was

[Chaz]

Remember, the Republicans are the real victims here.

[El Guapo]

This is absurd.

[El Guapo]

By the way, when *is* our next brownshirt orgy planned for? We need to start organizing earlier, or else we're going to wind up with another disaster like last time, where we had too many fascist paramilitary uniforms and not enough lube.

[noxiousdog]

Kurtz,

The answer is no. We are long past the point where we can just disagree. We have Yellowking of all people proclaiming Republicans as terroists. We have people doxing Republican senators. We have Ricin being mailed to Republicans. We have violent confrontations being perpetrated by our Marxist Antifa friends.

So no... we can’t just disagree without being labeled as terrorists, bigots, fascists, racists. We have aggressive bullying at its best, and outright violence at its worst. We are WAY past being able to disagree. It’s the main reason I don’t waste my breath in this sub forum anymore.

Instead of wallowing in self-pity, maybe you should ask yourself why Yellowking and myself don't want to be associated with Republicans.

The ability to have a discussion about this ended a long time ago. The responses to this, my first post in ages, is a perfect example of this. I’ll go quiet again after this post. Go ahead and have your orgy circle jerk of brownshirt responses without any further interference from my posts.

Figures.

[GreenGoo]

This is absurd.

I don't know how anyone can view this as anything but villainous.

I keep trying to see GOP actions from those who support their politics, not as a left leaning moderate, but I can never get past that they engage in dirty politics as their norm. It's like watching a billionaire steal a 5 cent piece of gum. It's not necessary, it's not moral, and it's not normal. It's like they are actually shitty, shitty people (obviously this is a generalization mostly about the leadership). I hate that thought, because it makes the GOP and those who actively (as opposed just voting for them because you think they're conservative, and so are you) support them literally bad people. At which point I'm like "what's the middle ground?". I'm not used to trying to see eye to eye with heroin dealers who deal at elementary schools

It's like they know how normal people behave and what they expect them to do, but then they are snidely whiplash and are incapable of not putting a sinister spin on everything.

The support for drumpf from the GOP in general is starting to make a lot more sense to me than it did to me in 2017.

I'm sorry to see that msd places himself squarely in this group. That's his choice of course. That he thinks it's unfair that people judge him based on that is a dissonance that is interesting to watch. This is not a neutral forum. But it is not a far left safe haven. That msd (and others) view it as such is a clear indication of where politics are today in the US.

Your country has gone from being split along political lines like how the rest of the world functions to dysfunctional us vs them irrationality.

Good luck.

[Chaz]

By the way, when *is* our next brownshirt orgy planned for? We need to start organizing earlier, or else we're going to wind up with another disaster like last time, where we had too many fascist paramilitary uniforms and not enough lube.

I'm only going if some of you guys let me play Devil's Triangle this time. I've got a whole roll of quarters ready!

[Carpet_pissr]

By the way, when *is* our next brownshirt orgy planned for? We need to start organizing earlier, or else we're going to wind up with another disaster like last time, where we had too many fascist paramilitary uniforms and not enough lube.

I'm only going if some of you guys let me play Devil's Triangle this time. I've got a whole roll of quarters ready!