I have to assume this is mostly due to polling in general becoming less reliable - because the alternative is terrifying. I realize Biden isn't exactly raising the roof, but a 14 point swing towards Republicans?!?On average, Americans' political party preferences in 2021 looked similar to prior years, with slightly more U.S. adults identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic (46%) than identified as Republicans or leaned Republican (43%).
However, the general stability for the full-year average obscures a dramatic shift over the course of 2021, from a nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter to a rare five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter.
Political affiliation in the United States
Moderators: LawBeefaroni, $iljanus
- Little Raven
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Political affiliation in the United States
Is changing.....fast.
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- dbt1949
- Posts: 25807
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
I'm a Republican now.
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- gilraen
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
You have to ask yourself what type of person would not only answer a phone call from a pollster but also stay on the phone and answer questions.
- Grifman
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
Not really surprising - inflation (which many people have never serious experienced), high gas prices/heating costs, covid tiredness, a little of Afghanistan incompetence to top it off. The thing people forget is unemployment hits only a portion of the population, inflation hits everyone. Plus the Republicans fight the culture wars much better than the Democrats do (see Va governor race). It's not hard for me to believe this swing.Little Raven wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:52 pm Is changing.....fast.I have to assume this is mostly due to polling in general becoming less reliable - because the alternative is terrifying. I realize Biden isn't exactly raising the roof, but a 14 point swing towards Republicans?!?On average, Americans' political party preferences in 2021 looked similar to prior years, with slightly more U.S. adults identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic (46%) than identified as Republicans or leaned Republican (43%).
However, the general stability for the full-year average obscures a dramatic shift over the course of 2021, from a nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter to a rare five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
- Blackhawk
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
You're forgetting the impact of the politics that the Democrats are playing so badly. It has a terrible effect on morale. If you're a Democrat right now you feel like the the kid who keeps getting beat up for milk money - and the bully is the Superintendent's son. You just keep taking it, nothing stops it, the teachers just shrug, and the asshole keeps laughing.
That makes people walk away.
That makes people walk away.
Last edited by Blackhawk on Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Kraken
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
Democrats swept into power on promises that they can't keep. A sizeable minority of Americans think those policies are communist, and categorically oppose them. The majority who do support them just see failure.
Also, Democrats are prolonging the pandemic by refusing to stop talking about it, when most Americans don't care anymore. Nobody likes Gloomy Gus.
But mostly, I think Blackhawk's right -- Americans prefer the bully to the kid getting beaten up for lunch money. Republicans play to win while Democrats wring their hands.
Also, Democrats are prolonging the pandemic by refusing to stop talking about it, when most Americans don't care anymore. Nobody likes Gloomy Gus.
But mostly, I think Blackhawk's right -- Americans prefer the bully to the kid getting beaten up for lunch money. Republicans play to win while Democrats wring their hands.
- UsulofDoom
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
As someone who is not democrat, I do not take polls.
Last edited by UsulofDoom on Fri Feb 11, 2022 1:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
If I make a grammar or spelling mistake, PM me. I will correct it. It’s better than you being an asshole!
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No one knows the truth, only hypothesis, assumptions, conjectures, speculations, presumptions, guesses and theories.
We are not Gods, but nature. No more than one of many dominate species that will inhabit this planet for a short period of time, on its ever so long journey through the universe.
- LawBeefaroni
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
I'm Republican.
No one is judging here...
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- Jaymann
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
The people of Poland rejoice.
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Black Lives Matter
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- Carpet_pissr
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
So….many….too much! Can’t…AAAAAUUUUGGHHHHH!!!
- Carpet_pissr
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
I’ve said that more than a few times on here before. But it suddenly struck me when I read that, a pretty clear and obvious answer: people that vote
- Defiant
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
tl/dr the article, but I think rather than people swapping to the opposite affiliation, one likely possibility is that as each side is less/more enthused, Democratic-leaners are less likely to identify as Democrat and more likely to identify as independent, while Republican-leaners are more likely to identify as Republican as opposed to independent.
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
I do. The fun part is that I have Ooma and the phone number I signed up with is in Wisconsin and then changed to a local number. So the pollsters are frequently asking about Wisconsin specific issues. I point out I don't know anymore (haven't lived there in nearly a decade), but they are happy to record my answers most times.
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- Grifman
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
The initial post is confusing IMO. This isn’t really about party affiliation, but party preference. All you have here is independents moving towards Republicans as they have moved towards Democrats in the part. Pure Democrats and Republicans are pretty much staying out, as they usually do.Defiant wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 9:24 am tl/dr the article, but I think rather than people swapping to the opposite affiliation, one likely possibility is that as each side is less/more enthused, Democratic-leaners are less likely to identify as Democrat and more likely to identify as independent, while Republican-leaners are more likely to identify as Republican as opposed to independent.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
- Blackhawk
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
And there are plenty of people who identify as Republicans who either voted against Trump, or simply didn't vote out of conscience.
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- LordMortis
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
Can I both not have expected but not be surprised? I was surprised to find out how many actively or passively support Trump politics. The amount of people who identify as republican beyond that has to be more a bit more. Then you factor in the people who answer polls and the people disaffected by the last two years and I can see a shift to a narrow majority. I don't have to like it but then I've been in doom and gloom mode for most of the last 8+ years. Biden's administration gave me a glimmer of hope of the first three or more months and then, not so much. I'll still take what we got now to alternative 7 days and twice on Sunday, but this is not good. And enough democrats believe the solution is to be more progressive. That's not going to help "centrists" paying more for everything while trying to play by COVID rules that aren't actually being messaged. Forget the state of foreign policy, which hasn't improved from the toilet it started draining five years ago.
I'll still not vote republican, because I have to, not because of anything the democrats are doing, in particular, while I sit and listen to plenty of folks bash Biden and our governor/sec of state and ignoring the actual law makers.
I'll still not vote republican, because I have to, not because of anything the democrats are doing, in particular, while I sit and listen to plenty of folks bash Biden and our governor/sec of state and ignoring the actual law makers.
- noxiousdog
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
And note that that overall trend is against both Democrats and Republicans with growing independents.Grifman wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 9:40 amThe initial post is confusing IMO. This isn’t really about party affiliation, but party preference. All you have here is independents moving towards Republicans as they have moved towards Democrats in the part. Pure Democrats and Republicans are pretty much staying out, as they usually do.Defiant wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 9:24 am tl/dr the article, but I think rather than people swapping to the opposite affiliation, one likely possibility is that as each side is less/more enthused, Democratic-leaners are less likely to identify as Democrat and more likely to identify as independent, while Republican-leaners are more likely to identify as Republican as opposed to independent.
Black Lives Matter
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
Seems to me this is the natural advantage of having no discernable platform and nothing you're actually trying to accomplish other than "stigginit".
Democrats promised big and delivered small, which looks like a loss. GOP promise literally nothing, block any progress, then claims victory when that progress is blocked. And, frankly, they're far better at telling that story then Dems are at communicating even the smallest win.
We've has somehow settled into this expectation that Dems have to deliver big to be considered successful, while the GOP simply has to continue to be obstructionists and win the moronic culture wars. Given those expectations, it's no surprise at all that conservatives are winning.
Democrats promised big and delivered small, which looks like a loss. GOP promise literally nothing, block any progress, then claims victory when that progress is blocked. And, frankly, they're far better at telling that story then Dems are at communicating even the smallest win.
We've has somehow settled into this expectation that Dems have to deliver big to be considered successful, while the GOP simply has to continue to be obstructionists and win the moronic culture wars. Given those expectations, it's no surprise at all that conservatives are winning.
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
If that were the case, the Democratic party wouldn't "control" both houses of Congress and the presidency.Skinypupy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:21 am Seems to me this is the natural advantage of having no discernable platform and nothing you're actually trying to accomplish other than "stigginit".
Democrats promised big and delivered small, which looks like a loss. GOP promise literally nothing, block any progress, then claims victory when that progress is blocked. And, frankly, they're far better at telling that story then Dems are at communicating even the smallest win.
We've has somehow settled into this expectation that Dems have to deliver big to be considered successful, while the GOP simply has to continue to be obstructionists and win the moronic culture wars. Given those expectations, it's no surprise at all that conservatives are winning.
The Democratic party didn't deliver. Thanks, Manchin/Sinema.
Black Lives Matter
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
- LordMortis
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
That flat out wrong. It's just that there is no memory for their promises. "Repeal and Replace" We have all the fixes for the medical right here. We're the best at cyber. And cyber security falls to an all time low. No more debt. There for every cost increase there must be twice as much cost cutting. Debt rises faster than any time in history. Build a wall. Spend more on a wall than at any time but increase the building of a wall at a no real applicable pace. This is the Infrastructure presidency. Literally no new infrastructure spending in four years. No one is harder on Putin. How can we make Putin get more hard than sucking him off whenever he intimates he needs it?
Of course, they did promise to deliver the Supreme Court and they did even better than promised. They wanted one Federalist" judge that should have Obama's and they got three. I still contend that is how Trump won in 2016 and democrats let is happen. McConnell still basks in that delivery.
- Carpet_pissr
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
This deserves applause.LordMortis wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:32 am No one is harder on Putin. How can we make Putin get more hard than sucking him off whenever he intimates he needs it?
- Blackhawk
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
It won't happen, but this would be an excellent time for a third party to step up, something that trims off the extremes of both parties, the perfect-world-no-compromise stupidity of certain Democrats and the overthrow-the-government of some Republicans. Get the most moderate half of the Ds and the most moderate half of the Rs and have them defect together - they'll outnumber the existing parties 2-1.noxiousdog wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:00 am And note that that overall trend is against both Democrats and Republicans with growing independents.
It's unlikely, but it would be the one solution that might actually work.
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- noxiousdog
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
It's not about ideology, but the ability to execute said ideology.Blackhawk wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:24 amIt won't happen, but this would be an excellent time for a third party to step up, something that trims off the extremes of both parties, the perfect-world-no-compromise stupidity of certain Democrats and the overthrow-the-government of some Republicans. Get the most moderate half of the Ds and the most moderate half of the Rs and have them defect together - they'll outnumber the existing parties 2-1.noxiousdog wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:00 am And note that that overall trend is against both Democrats and Republicans with growing independents.
It's unlikely, but it would be the one solution that might actually work.
Black Lives Matter
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
- Jaymon
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
Several times I have taken one of them online quizzes for "what political party are you" and the answer always comes up Libertarian. (no google, not librarian) but then I go to a libertarian site and read about it, and what up with libertarians and what they support and I am like, "No thank you" I am good on some of it, but then, its just a bit too much.
so then I tried looking at the green party, and I'm like, not everything is about the environment, Karen. Sure, I want to support the environment, but you guys are obsessed.
So I guess I am stuck on independent. For all non presidential races I try and choose one of the non R or D candidates, to try and promote more 3rd party participation. But presidential, I'm usually stuck voting against somebody, instead of for somebody. so thats tough.
so then I tried looking at the green party, and I'm like, not everything is about the environment, Karen. Sure, I want to support the environment, but you guys are obsessed.
So I guess I am stuck on independent. For all non presidential races I try and choose one of the non R or D candidates, to try and promote more 3rd party participation. But presidential, I'm usually stuck voting against somebody, instead of for somebody. so thats tough.
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- Kraken
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
I toyed with switching from I to D when Biden took office amidst hope and good feelings. The bad man was gone, the vaccines were coming and the pandemic was on the run, and he was pushing transformative social legislation. I vote D most of the time anyway, so why not cast my lot?
Now that they're going down in flames I'm glad I didn't do it. I'll still caucus with the D's, but I like being able to ask for either ballot in the primaries. Sometimes I do take the red one and vote strategically.
Now that they're going down in flames I'm glad I didn't do it. I'll still caucus with the D's, but I like being able to ask for either ballot in the primaries. Sometimes I do take the red one and vote strategically.
- Kurth
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
Funny you should ask that. I've been asking myself that a lot over the last couple of years as we've seen lots of strange and seemingly inaccurate forecasts based on polling.
Then, last night, I got a call from a survey company called, Dynata. The call sounded like standard telemarketing at first, but then I realized it was a political survey, and I decided to stick it out to see how painful it would be.
The answer . . . VERY.
The survey took forever. The questioner had such a thick accent, there was a real communication barrier. And at least half the questions were beyond stupid. "Do you feel Oregon is on the right track, yes or no?" Like, Oregon, the state? It's a big freaking place. Are we talking Portland? Eastern Oregon? The Coast? How is there any value in a question like that?
Anyway, it lasted at least 20 minutes, but if felt like an hour.
My takeaway is that I will not subject myself to that kind of crap again. And, I agree with you, gilraen, I'm not sure what kind of person would.
Just 'cause you feel it, doesn't mean it's there -- Radiohead
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- Kraken
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
Old people. We (collectively; not me) answer calls from unknown numbers, are polite to the callers, and may even like to chat. I suspect that phone polls skew old.
- YellowKing
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
I switched from I to D because morally I felt staying Independent implied that I would sometimes vote Republican, something which I don't see myself ever doing again. My goal was to distance myself as far away as possible.Kraken wrote:I toyed with switching from I to D when Biden took office amidst hope and good feelings.
Strategically your decision was probably the right one, but I had 25 years of voting R to make up for so my conscience got the better of me.
- LordMortis
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
The Ds are not owed my vote and when they treat me like they are it pushes me away from them. Even so, I'm functionally a democrat at this point as I feel compelled to vote and even do so in the D primary where my vote actually counts and I can't foresee the situation where I vote for an R. I know it exists and things could change in the future but I still can't see that path.
- LawBeefaroni
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
R strategy = They're coming for your family, your money, your property, and your freedom. We will stop them.LordMortis wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:15 am The Ds are not owed my vote and when they treat me like they are it pushes me away from them. Even so, I'm functionally a democrat at this point as I feel compelled to vote and even do so in the D primary where my vote actually counts and I can't foresee the situation where I vote for an R. I know it exists and things could change in the future but I still can't see that path.
D strategy = Yeah we're dysfunctional but who else are you going to vote for?
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- LordMortis
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
Defining the 21st Century Democratic Party
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:24 am D strategy = Yeah we're dysfunctional but who else are you going to vote for?
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- LawBeefaroni
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
Marketing works, who woulda thunk?
(Yes, disinformation campaigns are a form of marketing)
(Yes, disinformation campaigns are a form of marketing)
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- Kurth
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
I was reading this morning about Pence's latest statements in front of the Federalist Society:
I hate Pence. He's a dunce who'd like to make this country into a Christian theocracy. But there's no way to accurately convey just how much I'd rather have him in office than Trump. As much as I dislike Pence, he's not the threat to this country that Trump is.
It got me thinking: Maybe the Never Trumpers shouldn't be limited to conservatives and refugees from the GOP. What if enough democrats switched party in order to vote in the GOP primary and tip the scales in favor of anyone who's not Trump? I honestly wouldn't even care if doing so might somehow help the GOP win the presidency, so long as it wasn't Trump.
Plus, my hunch is that if Trump lost the GOP nomination, he'd run anyway, which would pretty much guarantee a democratic win. But that's not the point. The point is, we can NEVER let Trump regain the Presidency of the United States.
The analysis I'm seeing, right or wrong, is that this is Pence beginning to position himself for a presidential bid in 2024.President Trump is wrong. I had no right to overturn the election.
I hate Pence. He's a dunce who'd like to make this country into a Christian theocracy. But there's no way to accurately convey just how much I'd rather have him in office than Trump. As much as I dislike Pence, he's not the threat to this country that Trump is.
It got me thinking: Maybe the Never Trumpers shouldn't be limited to conservatives and refugees from the GOP. What if enough democrats switched party in order to vote in the GOP primary and tip the scales in favor of anyone who's not Trump? I honestly wouldn't even care if doing so might somehow help the GOP win the presidency, so long as it wasn't Trump.
Plus, my hunch is that if Trump lost the GOP nomination, he'd run anyway, which would pretty much guarantee a democratic win. But that's not the point. The point is, we can NEVER let Trump regain the Presidency of the United States.
Just 'cause you feel it, doesn't mean it's there -- Radiohead
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- Carpet_pissr
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
We had that opportunity, and wasted it.
- LordMortis
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
+1. I wouldn't vote for him. I'd rage against his decision making. I'd rage against his theocratic approach. But I'd wager he'd be working for the US. and not for himself and not for the oligarchs and not be a security risk and...Kurth wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 5:27 pm I hate Pence. He's a dunce who'd like to make this country into a Christian theocracy. But there's no way to accurately convey just how much I'd rather have him in office than Trump. As much as I dislike Pence, he's not the threat to this country that Trump is.
- Kurth
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
Along the same lines, and maybe even more so, shouldn’t all the registered Democrats in Wyoming switch parties in order to vote in the Cheney/Hageman primary? Most of other Republicans who voted to impeach or imposed Trump are bowing out rather than run for reelection. In Wyoming, Cheney is vowing to stand for reelection, even after the GOP censured her today and made Hageman its presumptive nominee.
I know there aren’t all that many Democrats in Wyoming (27% of the vote from what I see), but I have to imagine if they all held their nose on other ideological issues and got behind Cheney, there would be enough of them to tip the balance.
It seems like the only thing they really could do to make their vote count for something in Wyoming.
I know there aren’t all that many Democrats in Wyoming (27% of the vote from what I see), but I have to imagine if they all held their nose on other ideological issues and got behind Cheney, there would be enough of them to tip the balance.
It seems like the only thing they really could do to make their vote count for something in Wyoming.
Just 'cause you feel it, doesn't mean it's there -- Radiohead
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- Kraken
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
This is why I'm an independent. In MA, we have open primaries. I can take whichever ballot I want. Our governor's race will feature a spectrum of Democrats ranging from centrist (Healey, the front runner) to farther left. Any one of them is acceptable to me. On the R side, we'll have a full-throated, well-funded trumper (Geoff Diehl) vs. an unknown Charlie Baker-style moderate businessman. Unless I get enthused about one of the lefty "challenger" D's, I'm likely to take the R ballot and vote against Diehl. Even though Diehl would get slaughtered in November, I don't even want to see his name on the ballot.
Of course there will be other considerations than the marquee governor's race and my decision will be more complicated than I just laid out, but I like having the option to vote strategically.
Of course there will be other considerations than the marquee governor's race and my decision will be more complicated than I just laid out, but I like having the option to vote strategically.
- Remus West
- Posts: 33595
- Joined: Mon May 09, 2005 5:39 pm
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Re: Political affiliation in the United States
The other danger is electing some “not trump” and realizing too late they are simply smarter than trump, willing, and able to take full advantage of the weaknesses trump exposed.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
- Kurth
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- Location: Portland
Re: Political affiliation in the United States
This isn’t a thing as far as I am concerned. I’m not saying Trump is the only threat out there, but he’s a uniquely dangerous threat. Anyone but Trump. Seriously, anyone (even Desantis - that’s how far I am in the NEVER Trump camp).Remus West wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 11:24 pmThe other danger is electing some “not trump” and realizing too late they are simply smarter than trump, willing, and able to take full advantage of the weaknesses trump exposed.
Just 'cause you feel it, doesn't mean it's there -- Radiohead
Do you believe me? Do you trust me? Do you like me? 😳
Do you believe me? Do you trust me? Do you like me? 😳